Hazards in Warren County

Quality of Dam Infrastructure

The American Society of Civil Engineers gave Kentucky a D+ on dam infrastructure, which is only slightly better than the national average. The average US dam is 60 years old, and most dams in Kentucky are over 50. As of 2019, 80 dams in the state are classified as two-fold risks, meaning that they are both high hazards and in poor or unsatisfactory condition. 47% of these 80 dams received that rating partially because they cannot hold enough rain during catastrophic storms. 89% of high hazard dams in Kentucky do not have complete emergency action plans on file with the state. 74% have simplified draft plans, but these are not widely shared and have not been adopted by local officials.

Types of Dam Failure

There are three types of Dam Failure:

1. Structural: This common cause is responsible for nearly 30% of all dam failure in the United States. Structural failure of a dam occurs when there is a rupture in the dam or its foundation.
2. Mechanical: Refers to the failure or malfunctioning of gates, conduits, or valves.
3. Hydraulic: Occurs when the uncontrolled flow of water over the top, around, and adjacent to the dam erodes its foundation. Hydraulic failure is the cause of approximately 34% of all dam failures.

A failure at Barren River Lake Dam or Nolin River Lake Dam could deliver deep, high-velocity flooding along the Barren River, Drakes Creek, and Green River corridors within Warren County, depending on breach size, reservoir level, and time of year. Impacts could include inundation of bridges, utilities, transportation networks, and low-lying neighborhoods in and around Bowling Green and its rural communities.

History of Dam Failure

Warren County has no recorded catastrophic dam failures, and USACE inspections continue to rate their high-hazard dams as structurally sound. Past operational issues have been limited to scheduled maintenance, controlled releases, and short-duration impacts on downstream recreation areas and boat ramps.

Probability

Catastrophic dam failure probability is very low due to federal ownership, design standards, inspections, instrumentation, and Emergency Action Planning; however, low-probability/high-consequence risk persists and warrants planning for warning, evacuation, and continuity. More credible scenarios include: gate/mechanical issues causing elevated releases, spillway operations during extreme inflows, or localized damages requiring emergency drawdown. State dam-safety authorities (KDEP Dam Safety) and USACE maintain oversight and emergency procedures that further reduce likelihood but not consequence.

Built Environment:

A breach can produce rapid inundation that damages or destroys buildings, blocks roads with debris, disrupts traffic and emergency services, and threatens water/wastewater systems—especially if a reservoir supplies drinking water.

Natural Environment:

Floodwaves can scour channels, mobilize debris and contaminants, and disrupt aquatic habitats and riparian systems.

Social Environment:

Fast-arriving floodwaters elevate life-safety risk, particularly for people living/working in low-lying downstream areas with limited warning or evacuation options.

Climate Impacts on Dam Failure:

Increasingly intense rainfall, longer wet periods, and more frequent extreme storm events can raise hydraulic loading on dams, heighten the risk of overtopping, accelerate erosion of embankments and spillways, and reduce warning/response time. Climate-driven shifts can also stress aging infrastructure and complicate reservoir operations (e.g., balancing flood control with drought storage), making proactive maintenance, updated hydrologic/hydraulic studies, and EAP exercises even more critical.

Vulnerability in Warren County is concentrated in river-adjacent development, low-lying neighborhoods, and critical lifelines crossing or paralleling the Barren River. Residential growth near flood-prone corridors increases both exposure and potential damage. Populations with functional and access needs—such as older adults, medically dependent residents, and those without vehicles—face heightened risks during rapid-onset evacuations.

Privately owned, small embankment dams pose additional vulnerability due to inconsistent maintenance and the potential for unexpected breaching during high-intensity rainfall. Infrastructure systems—especially wastewater, electrical, and transportation—are vulnerable to both inundation and erosion forces.

With the region’s largest population and critical infrastructure, Warren County faces the highest potential consequences should a significant upstream failure send a flood wave into developed areas. Bridge closures, utility outages, and facility disruptions can cascade quickly. Strong emergency management capacity is an advantage, but large events could still strain resources.

Location/Extent

Drought affects all of Warren County, though impacts vary by soil type, land use, and water-supply characteristics. Agricultural areas experience the earliest impacts through pasture stress, reduced yields, and limited forage. Urban systems may see higher water demand and treatment challenges during prolonged dry periods.  BRADD’s Water System Vulnerability to Drought resource further highlights system-level considerations for the region.

Past Events

Notable events include the 2012 drought, when much of Kentucky—including Warren County—reached D3 (Extreme Drought) on the U.S. Drought Monitor, with widespread agricultural losses, elevated fire risk, and water shortages. From 2000–2025, Warren County experienced ~61 weeks of D2 (Moderate) and ~11 weeks of D3 (Severe/Extreme) drought; USDA issued drought disaster declarations in 2022 and 2023 for documented production losses.

Probability

Long-term monitoring indicates drought is a recurrent hazard. Warren County experienced 627 total weeks of drought over the last 25 years—about a 48% chance that any given week features drought conditions. Projections suggest drought likelihood may increase with climate change as rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns extend dry periods.

Built Environment:

Lower reservoir and well levels can strain municipal water systems, increase infrastructure operating costs (e.g., pumping/energy), and trigger usage restrictions for businesses and institutions; prolonged deficits can reduce fire-flow availability for rural systems.

Natural Environment:

Drought reduces streamflow and aquatic habitat quality, stresses forests and grasslands, and can degrade water quality as lower volumes concentrate pollutants.

Social Environment:

The largest local effects are economic losses in agriculture (crop failures, livestock stress, higher irrigation costs) and secondary risks such as increased wildfire potential; households and small businesses can face water shortages and higher costs.

Climate Impacts on Dam Failure:

Rising temperatures increase evapotranspiration and soil‐moisture loss, while shifting precipitation patterns can produce longer dry spells punctuated by intense storms that do little to recharge groundwater. Hotter summers elevate water demand, stress crops and livestock, worsen algal blooms and other water-quality issues in low flows, and compound risks when heat waves coincide with drought—intensifying health, agricultural, and infrastructure impacts across Barren County.

Drought Vulnerability in the BRADD Region

Soil Susceptibility

Soil’s susceptibility to drought varies due to a myriad of factors. The map below depicts vulnerability to drought based on soil type from a moisture retention and availability perspective. For example a shallow fragipan limits the depth of the soil making it more vulnerable to moisture loss. Grey areas indicate that no soil data was available due to lakes, heavily urbanized areas, or strip mining. Susceptibility to Drought Scores were established using the criteria of infiltration, water movement, and water supply for the soils defined in the NRCS Soil Surveys that encompass the state.

Warren County’s drought vulnerability is shaped by its mix of agricultural production, growing population, and rural pockets dependent on private wells, which are highly sensitive to groundwater decline. Older adults, low-income households, and residents without reliable cooling face compounding risks when drought occurs alongside extreme heat. Agricultural producers—particularly cattle, forage, and row-crop operations—are among the most vulnerable to economic losses. Smaller water systems and rural water associations may experience stress from high demand, leakage, limited storage, or reduced source capacity during extended dry periods.

Warren County’s public water system demonstrates low vulnerability to drought.

The soil susceptibility map indicates that the majority of Warren County’s soil experiences low susceptibility to drought. However, the northwestern portion of the county does have a high susceptibility to drought.

Overall, Warren County has a moderately low to moderately high vulnerability to drought. Because drought is a non-spatial hazard, this same analysis can be applied to its respective cities – Bowling Green, Plum Springs, Oakland, Smiths Grove, and Woodburn.

Location/Extent

Kentucky is affected by nearby seismic zones—New Madrid (most active east of the Rockies) and Wabash Valley (capable of M5.5–6.0 damage near population centers). Potential shaking in Butler County ranges from weak/noticeable (MMI II–IV) during distant events to light–moderate (MMI V–VI) in rarer, larger scenarios; secondary effects can include nonstructural damage, minor slope instability, and utility disruptions. The eastern U.S. crust transmits shaking efficiently, so distant earthquakes can be widely felt.

Severity is commonly expressed by earthquake magnitude and by shaking intensity (Modified Mercalli Scale). Warren County’s worst-case consequences depend on regional event size/distance and local amplification/liquefaction potential.

Past Events

Warren County has no known damaging local earthquake events ≥M3, though residents routinely feel small earthquakes centered in the ETSZ and WVSZ.

The 1811–1812 New Madrid sequence produced strong shaking across Kentucky, including the Green and Barren River region.

More recent regional events such as the 2012 East Prairie, MO M4.0, 2017 Central Tennessee M4.4, and minor Indiana/Illinois events have been felt in Warren County due to efficient seismic-wave transmission in the region’s bedrock.

Probability

Warren County faces a low but persistent seismic hazard. Historical recurrence intervals suggest that:

• Weak to light shaking (MMI III–IV) is possible every few years from regional events.
• Moderate shaking (MMI V–VI) is plausible within a 30- to 50-year planning horizon, particularly from NMSZ or ETSZ events.
• Damaging shaking from a major NMSZ earthquake is low probability but high consequence, placing Warren County within a regional high-impact scenario area.

An earthquake could result in structural damage to older buildings, critical facilities, and infrastructure not designed to modern seismic codes. Bridges, utilities, and water systems could sustain significant damage, leading to service disruptions. Secondary impacts might include landslides in certain areas, hazardous material spills, and challenges in emergency response due to blocked roads and damaged communication systems. Economic losses could be substantial, particularly for uninsured property owners.

Built Environment:

Shaking can damage homes and business structures, collapse unreinforced elements, and disrupt roads/bridges, power, water/wastewater, and telecom. Post-event debris and utility outages can hinder emergency response.

Natural Environment:

Secondary effects—liquefaction, landslides, fires, and hazmat releases—can degrade soils, waterways, and habitats.

Social Environment:

Transportation disruption, hospital surge, power/water interruptions, and communications overload elevate life-safety risk and complicate reunification and care for vulnerable groups (children, older adults, LEP populations).

Climate Impacts on Earthquakes:

While climate change does not drive tectonic earthquakes, hydrologic extremes (prolonged drought, heavy precipitation, groundwater withdrawal/recharge) may alter subsurface stresses in limited contexts. The BRADD region has an overall low earthquake risk, so any climate influence on local frequency/severity is likely minor relative to tectonic controls.

Earthquake Vulnerability in Allen County

Butler County is mapped in a “high perceived shaking” zone for high-magnitude regional scenarios and contains significant local fault lines. Because earthquakes are non-spatial at the county scale, this vulnerability characterization applies countywide (including Morgantown, Rochester, and Woodbury). Key sensitivity factors remain older/unnretrofitted buildings, critical facilities, bridges, and lifelines on softer soils or in potential liquefaction areas.

Warren County’s earthquake vulnerability is moderate, largely shaped by its urban density, legacy building stock, and concentration of critical facilities in Bowling Green. Older commercial structures, unreinforced masonry buildings, long-span retail roofs, multi-tenant residential facilities, and high-occupancy venues (schools, medical facilities, WKU buildings) may experience heightened nonstructural damage. Lifelines—including I-65, I-165, major freight corridors, bridges, substations, and water/wastewater facilities—are essential to post-event response and recovery but remain sensitive to shaking-induced service interruptions.

Populations at highest risk include older adults, low-income residents in older housing, students and large campus populations, manufactured-housing communities, and households reliant on continuous electrical power for medical equipment.

Warren County is within the “light” perceived shaking zone for a high magnitude earthquake and does not contain significant fault lines.

Because of these factors, Warren County experiences low vulnerability to earthquakes. Because earthquakes are non-spatial hazards, it can be assumed that this analysis should be applied to Warren County’s respective cities – Bowling Green, Plum Springs, Oakland, Smiths Grove, and Woodburn.

Location/Extent

Location and Extent

Both extreme heat and extreme cold events occur countywide, with heat impacts highest in the most built-up areas of Bowling Green and in southern and western suburbs where pavement density and reduced tree cover amplify temperatures. Extreme cold is most severe in open rural areas, where winds increase exposure and where residents may rely on less weather-resistant housing.

Historical Occurrences

Warren County regularly experiences multiple heat advisories each summer and periodic excessive heat warnings, particularly during late July and August.

Extreme cold outbreaks—though less common—have occurred during years such as 2014, 2015, and 2022, producing dangerous wind chills, power interruptions, and frozen water infrastructure.

Heat-related emergency calls in Bowling Green have increased over the last decade, consistent with regional and national trends.

Probability

Extreme heat is becoming more frequent and more intense, with heat advisories expected every year and excessive heat warnings occurring several times per decade. Climate projections for south-central Kentucky indicate increases in both average summer temperature and humidity, extending the heat season into early fall.

Extreme cold events are less frequent but remain possible in most winters. Even short-duration cold snaps can have significant impacts when paired with power outages or limited home heating capacity.

Planning assumptions should treat heat as a high-probability, annually recurring hazard and extreme cold as moderate-probability but capable of producing significant damage and health impacts.

Extreme heat can lead to heat exhaustion and heatstroke, particularly in outdoor workers, the elderly, and low-income households without access to cooling. It also increases energy demand, raising utility costs and the likelihood of power outages. Severe cold poses risks of frostbite, hypothermia, and infrastructure damage, including frozen pipes and malfunctioning heating systems. Both extremes can disrupt agricultural yields, livestock health, and local economies.

Built Environment:

Cold can burst buried water pipes, strain metal bridge members, and affect trucking/rail operations (e.g., diesel gelling). Heat can soften asphalt, stress vehicle cooling systems and rail operations, and increase water demand, sometimes reducing fire-flow availability.

Natural Environment:

Cold snaps threaten livestock and wildlife and can freeze ponds/streams. Heat can degrade water quality, drive algal blooms, and reduce crop yields and dairy productivity.

Social Environment:

Cold elevates exposure risks for people without adequate shelter or heat and can increase CO poisoning and fire risk; both cold and heat create economic losses (e.g., utility repair, agriculture) and can trigger business/school closures. Heat is the leading U.S. weather-related killer, with illnesses from fatigue to heat stroke.

Climate Impacts on Extreme Temperatures:

Climate change models predict and increase in overall temperature globally for the coming decades, including the BRADD region. With a potential rise of several degrees Fahrenheit, multiple services, systems, and activities face disruption and impact. Temperature increases this small may not seem threatening, but the cumulative impacts will affect weather events, human health, and ecosystem functions, along with economic and social issues related to energy use and cost of living.

Working with  AT&T’s Climate Resilient Communities Program and the  Climate Risk and Resilience (ClimRR) Portal, BRADD identified additional opportunities for hazard mitigation action items associated with climate impacts for Extreme Temperatures in the Barren River Region. To view an interactive report of these findings,   click here.

Warren County’s vulnerability to extreme temperature hazards is high, driven by its demographic profile, housing stock diversity, and urbanization patterns. Key vulnerable groups include:

• Older adults and medically dependent individuals
• Low-income residents with limited access to efficient cooling/heating
• Manufactured-housing residents
• Students and residents in large multifamily buildings with limited ventilation
• Outdoor laborers working in construction, agriculture, and industry
• Households reliant on electric heat or lacking backup power

Bowling Green’s rapid development—combined with significant paved areas and limited tree canopy in some neighborhoods—exacerbates nighttime heat retention. Rural households may experience well pump failures, frozen plumbing, and limited access to warming centers during severe cold.

Since 2010, Warren County has experienced one wind chill watch (2014) and one wind chill warning (2015).

Because of these factors, Warren County experiences moderate vulnerability to extreme cold events. Bowling Green, Oakland, Plum Springs, Smiths Grove, and Woodburn reflect Warren County’s overall history of extreme cold, and therefore experience high vulnerability as well.

On average, Warren County experienced 38.1 extreme heat days per year between 2010 and 2016.

Because of these factors, Warren County experiences high vulnerability to extreme heat events. Bowling Green, Oakland, Plum Springs, Smiths Grove, and Woodburn reflect Warren County’s overall history of extreme heat, and therefore experience high vulnerability as well.

Flood-prone areas in Warren County include low-lying and river-adjacent locations along the Barren River, Green River, Drakes Creek, Jennings Creek, and Gaspar River, as well as rural road crossings and rapidly developing suburban areas where stormwater systems are under pressure from continued growth. The First Street Foundation estimates that approximately 13–14% of properties in Warren County have at least a 1-in-4 chance of flood damage over the next 30 years, with potential flood depths exceeding three feet in some neighborhoods with limited elevation or inadequate drainage capacity. Projections from the Climate Risk and Resilience Portal (ClimRR) indicate a 5–10% increase in the annual number of days with extreme precipitation (greater than one inch per day) by the mid-21st century under moderate emissions scenarios, signaling a rising risk of flash flooding during spring and summer storm seasons.

Repetitive-loss (RL) and severe repetitive-loss (SRL) properties in Warren County are relatively limited but occur across multiple jurisdictions. Warren County (Unincorporated) contains one (1) RL/SRL property, classified as single-family occupancy. Under NFIP definitions, this property qualifies as Repetitive-Loss, and under both NFIP and Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) criteria it qualifies as a Severe Repetitive-Loss (SRL) structure.

The City of Bowling Green possesses three (3) RL/SRL properties, all single-family. Each meets NFIP criteria for Repetitive-Loss, while none meet NFIP or FMA criteria for Severe Repetitive-Loss.

The Cities of Oakland and Plum Springs currently have zero (0) RL or SRL properties.

The City of Smiths Grove contains one (1) RL property—classified as single-family occupancy—which meets NFIP criteria for Repetitive-Loss but does not meet SRL criteria under either NFIP or FMA definitions.

The City of Woodburn also possesses zero (0) RL or SRL properties.

These data indicate that while Warren County’s repetitive-loss inventory is relatively small compared to its overall housing stock, the presence of RL and SRL structures in both unincorporated and incorporated areas underscores persistent risk along major waterways and older drainage systems. As extreme rainfall becomes more frequent, continued investment in drainage improvements, culvert and channel upgrades, floodproofing, structure elevation or voluntary acquisition, and strict NFIP compliance remains essential to reduce future losses and protect vulnerable properties across the county.

Exposure in Warren County is countywide, with riverine flooding along the Barren River, Green River, and their associated tributaries; flash flooding in small headwater basins and at rural road crossings; and urban or poor-drainage flooding within the City of Bowling Green, as well as rapidly developing suburban areas where stormwater capacity is limited. Low-lying neighborhoods and commercial corridors near the Barren River and Drakes Creek experience heightened flood susceptibility during high-intensity rainfall. Although Warren County has fewer pronounced karst features than portions of the eastern BRADD region, sinkholes, depressions, and losing streams are present across portions of the county—especially near Bowling Green—and can rapidly concentrate stormwater, causing localized inundation when drainage inlets clog or soils become saturated.

Click Here to view a summary of all past Disaster Declarations in the BRADD Region.

Below you will find a listing of past NOAA Flood and Flash-Flood Events from 2000-2020 for Butler County.

Given the historical record, Warren County should plan for recurring annual flood potential, with impacts varying by season, rainfall intensity, and storm track. Regionally, counties in south-central Kentucky exhibit a wide range of “annual chance” flooding frequencies (approximately 70–400%) based on observed flood and flash-flood events per year. Warren County’s rate—averaging more than 3 flood or flash-flood events per year—indicates consistent, high-frequency exposure that requires ongoing attention to stormwater system maintenance, culvert and channel capacity improvements, and the management of roadway low-water crossings across both urban and rural areas.

Extreme heat can lead to heat exhaustion and heatstroke, particularly in outdoor workers, the elderly, and low-income households without access to cooling. It also increases energy demand, raising utility costs and the likelihood of power outages. Severe cold poses risks of frostbite, hypothermia, and infrastructure damage, including frozen pipes and malfunctioning heating systems. Both extremes can disrupt agricultural yields, livestock health, and local economies.

Built Environment:

Flooding can cause structural damage to both residential and commercial buildings and destroy furnishing and inventory.
Flooding will causes inconvenience or stoppage to many system. Transportation systems such as roads and railways become unpassable. Large amounts of water from a flood can affect water management systems such as the backup or hiatus of drainage, sanitary, and sewer systems. As heavy rains persist during a flood event, excess water drains into the ground water system. This causes the water table to rise and cause further ground water floods. If chemicals are mixed with flood waters, this can contaminate the ground water, a common source of fresh water for communities.

Natural Environment:

As flood waters engulf the surrounding natural environment, they are saturated with chemicals and other substances associated with the manmade environment that they have also been in contact with. As these abnormal waters settle and flows through natural ecosystems they can alter and even destroy both plant and animal life. When the flow of flood waters becomes so immense, it can physically destroy or uproot naturally growing vegetation and also drive specific species of animals out of their natural habitats for good.

Social Environment:

People
People with property located in the floodplain or within areas subject to seepage are vulnerable to flooding. Stoppage to transportation systems can make it very difficult for isolated populations to receive aid or escape breeching flood waters. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly or people who need medical attention, may be temporarily cut off from accessing life-saving resources.

Economy
Floods can affect local economies by disrupting transportation systems needed for people to get to and from work and destroying places of business and means of production. When flooding occurs in more rural areas, livestock and agricultural system will be affected. Crops can be destroyed in the growing season, or prevent from seeding in the off season. Large insurance payouts to residents or business owners who have procured flood insurance might also have an economic impact.

Climate Impacts on Flooding:

Climate change models predict and increase in overall temperature globally for the coming decades, including the BRADD region. With a potential rise of several degrees Fahrenheit, multiple services, systems, and activities face disruption and impact. Temperature increases this small may not seem threatening, but the cumulative impacts will affect weather events, human health, and ecosystem functions, along with economic and social issues related to energy use and cost of living.

Working with  AT&T’s Climate Resilient Communities Program and the  Climate Risk and Resilience (ClimRR) Portal, BRADD identified additional opportunities for hazard mitigation action items associated with climate impacts for flooding in the Barren River Region. To view an interactive report of these findings,   click here.

Warren County’s vulnerability to flooding is concentrated along the Barren River, Green River, and their tributary systems—particularly Drakes Creek, Jennings Creek, and the Gaspar River—as well as at rural low-water crossings and in areas of limited stormwater capacity within the City of Bowling Green and rapidly developing suburban communities. Manufactured-housing areas, older homes with minimal elevation or foundation freeboard, critical facilities located near or within the Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA), and small businesses with ground-level inventories are especially sensitive to inundation. Residents with limited mobility, restricted vehicle access, or medical dependencies face elevated functional risk when roadways flood or when power and transportation networks are disrupted. Although Warren County’s karst features are less extensive than in some eastern BRADD counties, sinkholes, depressions, and losing streams—especially in and around Bowling Green—can still produce rapid, localized flooding if inlets become clogged or soils are saturated. Rural private-well users may experience post-flood water-quality issues following heavy rainfall or septic-system overflow. Targeted mitigation—such as culvert and ditch maintenance or upsizing, low-water crossing signage and sensors, backflow prevention, structure elevation or voluntary acquisition where feasible, and continued public outreach on flood safety—helps reduce exposure and maintain community access.

Overall vulnerability is defined using FEMA’s standard classification criteria for hazard exposure, frequency, and consequence.

Warren County faces a high level of vulnerability to flooding, supported by more than 100 documented flood and flash-flood events between 2000 and 2020 and multiple FEMA Disaster Declarations affecting the county, including major floods in 1997, 2010, 2018, 2020, and 2021. The county’s combination of major river systems, urbanizing watersheds, extensive impervious surfaces, and drainage limitations contributes to recurring flood risk across both rural and developed areas. Among its jurisdictions, the City of Bowling Green experiences the greatest exposure—with numerous recorded flood and flash-flood events since 2000—resulting in a high vulnerability classification. Smaller cities such as Smiths Grove, Oakland, Woodburn, and Plum Springs record fewer events overall and are generally considered to have low to moderate vulnerability, though localized drainage issues and proximity to tributaries may still present episodic flood risks

Between 2000 and 2020, Warren County has had 80 flood events.

Warren County has received FEMA Disaster Declarations as a result of flooding in 1998, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2020, and 2021.

Overall, Warren County experiences very high vulnerability to flood events. The risk for Warren County’s cities is analyzed below.

The City of Bowling Green has had thirty-one (31) historic occurrences of flood and flash-flood events since 2000. Its vulnerability is high.

The City of Plum Springs has had no historic occurrences of flood and flash-flood events since 2000. Its vulnerability is low.

The City of Oakland has had one historic occurrence of flood and flash-flood events since 2000. Its vulnerability is low.

The City of Smiths Grove has had three historic occurrences of flood and flash-flood events since 2000. Its vulnerability is low.

The City of Woodburn has had no historic occurrences of flood and flash-flood events since 2000. Its vulnerability is low.

The extent of a hazardous materials release is characterized by the type of substance, quantity released, state (gas, liquid, solid), dispersion behavior, and weather/terrain conditions. Releases may be constrained and local (e.g. a leaking drum or tank) or large and far-reaching (e.g. vapors spreading over multiple miles, groundwater contamination migrating). Depending on the chemical’s toxicity, volatility, and persistence, an incident could produce acute health effects, long-term environmental harm, or chronic exposure zones. In the BRADD region, credible scenarios include a small spill alongside a highway, a rail car release near populated areas, or a storage tank failure, each producing different spatial footprints and hazard zones.

The BRADD region has a record of hazardous materials incidents, particularly associated with transportation and industrial operations. Kentucky has experienced several costly hazmat transit incidents in recent years. In rail transport, derailments involving chemical cargo have spurred evacuations and environmental response. For example, in 2007, a major derailment in Kentucky released hazardous materials and required area evacuation. Nationally and regionally, chemical spills from industrial plants have caused injury, property damage, and remediation efforts. Some incidents, such as the 1981 Louisville sewer explosions (driven by hexane vapors in sewer lines), illustrate how improper chemical disposal can lead to infrastructure destruction. These past events highlight the potential for both acute and lingering impacts of hazardous material releases.

Hazardous materials incidents represent a moderate to high probability hazard in Warren County due to the county’s extensive transportation network, concentrated industrial activity, and growing commercial sectors. Major corridors such as Interstate 65, Interstate 165, US-231, and key rail lines carry frequent shipments of fuels, chemicals, agricultural products, and other regulated materials, increasing the likelihood of spills or transportation-related releases. Bowling Green’s industrial parks, manufacturing facilities, universities, laboratories, and commercial fuel storage sites further elevate routine exposure potential. While large-scale releases are infrequent, small to moderate spills occur regularly, especially along roadways and at fixed facilities handling petroleum and chemicals. The presence of multiple high-volume freight routes, combined with ongoing economic and industrial growth, supports classifying hazardous materials incidents in Warren County as a recurrent hazard, with the expectation that several minor events will occur each year and the possibility of a significant release within any 5- to 10-year planning horizon.

Hazardous materials releases can produce widespread and cascading effects across built, natural, and social environments.

Built Environment:

Buildings are vulnerable to a hazardous materials spill. The combination of fire, water, and chemicals could result in an explosion that is likely to damage both the buildings storing hazardous materials and the area surrounding the storage area. Proper storage and handling of these chemicals is critical in decreasing built environment vulnerability. A hazardous materials spill anywhere along the Barren River Region’s transportation network will have an immediate impact on travel time and delays. Municipal water systems and storm water drainage systems are vulnerable to a toxic spill. Chemicals that reach the water system could limit the supply of potable water.

Natural Environment:

Factors contributing to the vulnerability of natural systems are the type of chemical spilled the physical state of the chemical, the amount released, and the location of the incident. Vulnerability of the natural environment to hazardous materials events is higher for species and ecosystems in the immediate vicinity of the event, and moderate for those located downstream.

Social Environment:

People
A hazardous material spill could isolate parts of the region from critical facilities. Mobility impaired persons would be vulnerable to a spill or vapor release that requires immediate evacuation. Similarly, people with hearing or sight impairments may require special notification if the standard announcements are not available. Children with respiratory problems are at a higher risk of vulnerability to chemical vapors. Elderly with mobility impairments or compromised immune systems may suffer greater injuries in the case of a hazardous material release. Low-income residents are more likely to reside in closer proximity to hazardous facilities than wealthier counterparts. If displaced by a hazardous materials spill, limited income residents may face additional hardship.
Economy
Cost of replacing damaged property; a spill at a fixed facility , may cause temporary or permanent closure

Climate Impacts on Hazardous Material Spills:

As climate change impacts other sectors and hazards, such as increased severe storms, heat waves, and flooding, there is a chance that hazardous materials will become more unstable due to potential disasters. During flood events, materials may be spilled or introduced into waterways and severe wind or winter storms may cause the spillage of materials during vehicular accidents or building and infrastructure damage. Sinkhole openings may introduce hazardous materials into the groundwater system. An increased use in hazardous materials may also occur as part of other mitigation and adaptation activities, such as development, and may increase the exposure for these impacts to occur.

This hazard presents a moderate risk to Warren County, due to the large amount of manufacturing and development, sensitive groundwater and surface water resources, and the probability for severe events to occur.

Potential impacts include:

• increase spillage of hazardous materials
• more frequent transport and storage of hazardous materials
• threat to environmental and human health during a spill or contamination event
• threat from exposure during increased use to mitigate other impacts
• threat to infrastructure during a spill or other event
• economic loss from cleanup or health impacts

Warren County’s vulnerability to hazardous materials incidents is shaped by the intersection of dense population centers, critical transportation corridors, and industrial clusters. Bowling Green is particularly vulnerable due to its concentration of manufacturing, warehousing, and fuel-handling facilities located near major highways and rail lines. Residential neighborhoods, schools, and commercial districts adjacent to these corridors face elevated risk from transportation-related releases, while rural communities may be more vulnerable to agricultural chemical spills and limited response times. Critical facilities—including hospitals, long-term care centers, emergency services, and major employers—are sensitive to shelter-in-place or evacuation needs during hazardous materials events. Populations with limited mobility, language barriers, or medical dependencies are especially at risk when hazardous plumes or spill responses require rapid public notification. Additionally, chemical releases can impact waterways such as the Barren River, Drakes Creek, and tributaries, threatening drinking water intakes, aquatic ecosystems, and recreation areas. Together, these factors make proactive planning, responder training, Tier II reporting compliance, and strong coordination with state and federal partners essential to reducing hazardous materials vulnerability in Warren County.

Warren County has the highest hazardous materials vulnerability within the BRADD region due to its population density, extensive industrial base, and heavy transportation activity. Bowling Green’s manufacturing facilities, warehouses, and Interstate 65 corridor represent significant exposure points. The combination of industrial growth and karst terrain creates elevated risk of both surface and subsurface contamination. The county benefits from a strong emergency management infrastructure and trained hazmat response capability, but large or multiple incidents could still strain resources and impact nearby communities.

Emerging infectious disease (EID) outbreaks can range from small, localized clusters to countywide or multi-county epidemics, depending on the pathogen’s transmissibility (e.g., R₀), incubation/asymptomatic period, mode of transmission (airborne, droplet, contact, vector, food/water), clinical severity, and availability of countermeasures (vaccines/antivirals). Severity is often expressed through combinations of attack rate, hospitalization and ICU utilization, case fatality ratio, and the duration/number of waves, which together determine stress on healthcare, schools, businesses, and critical services. FEMA’s planning policy expects plans to describe a hazard’s type, location, and extent and to include previous occurrences and the probability of future events; for EIDs, this typically means using qualitative scales (e.g., low/moderate/high) informed by public-health surveillance and scenario analysis.

Warren County’s EID context mirrors the region and state: 2009 H1N1 influenza produced widespread illness and vaccination campaigns; COVID-19 (2020–2022) caused repeated surges, remote learning periods, healthcare strain, and workforce disruptions across south-central Kentucky, with lingering recovery needs. At smaller scales, seasonal influenza, gastrointestinal outbreaks, hepatitis A, and tick-borne illnesses recur and periodically challenge local public-health capacity. For hazard-mitigation purposes, these events document that infectious hazards are recurring and can escalate quickly, even when initial clusters are small.

EIDs are non-spatial at the county scale: exposure is countywide and follows human activity patterns. Transmission risk is elevated where people congregate or where mobility is high, including schools and childcare sites, long-term care and healthcare facilities, workplaces and distribution/logistics hubs, correctional settings, places of worship, and events/venues. Vulnerability may be higher for neighborhoods with older adults, people with chronic conditions, uninsured/under-insured residents, or limited access to primary care, and for settings with shared housing or limited ventilation.

The probability of emerging infectious disease (EID) activity in Warren County is ongoing and recurrent, though severity varies by pathogen. Routine outbreaks—such as novel respiratory viruses, gastrointestinal pathogens, and other communicable illnesses—can be expected annually to every few years, with countywide transmission most likely during school terms, peak respiratory seasons, and periods of high mobility associated with Warren County’s role as a regional employment, education, and commercial hub. The likelihood of a significant EID event that stresses healthcare systems or disrupts schools and workplaces over a 5–10-year planning horizon is moderate, influenced by heavy traffic along Interstate 65, the presence of Western Kentucky University, large employers, long-term care facilities, and regular inflow of non-resident workers and visitors. Probability increases with factors such as low vaccination or booster uptake, limited access to primary care, and delayed detection, and decreases with strong surveillance systems, rapid testing availability, vaccination campaigns, and effective risk communication. Climate-related stressors—such as hotter summers, deteriorating air quality, and shifting vector ecology—may indirectly elevate transmission risk by increasing indoor crowding or extending mosquito and tick seasons, but the dominant drivers for EIDs in Warren County remain human mixing patterns, healthcare capacity, and public-health interventions.

Impact

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) can trigger cascading consequences across systems even when case counts are moderate, because illness, isolation, and precautionary measures disrupt people, places, and services simultaneously. Direct health impacts (morbidity, mortality) are compounded by workforce absenteeism, supply-chain delays, and surges on healthcare and public health operations. The breadth of consequences depends on the pathogen’s transmissibility and severity, the speed of detection, and the availability of countermeasures (testing, treatment, vaccination) and risk communication.

Built Environment

EIDs strain the built environment indirectly by stressing the facilities and systems people operate. Hospitals, clinics, EMS stations, and pharmacies can exceed functional capacity, requiring surge spaces and changes to ventilation and patient flow. Public buildings, schools, and workplaces may need operational adjustments (enhanced cleaning, spacing, HVAC improvements), and staffing gaps can delay maintenance for roads, utilities, and public facilities. Supply-chain disruptions can slow construction projects and limit availability of critical parts for water/wastewater, transportation, and communications systems.

Natural Environment

While EIDs primarily affect human systems, response activities can influence the environment. Increased use of medical disposables and disinfectants elevates medical and solid-waste volumes, requiring proper handling to avoid secondary environmental impacts. Wastewater surveillance—often deployed for EIDs—integrates environmental sampling into public health practice and necessitates careful lab and sampling protocols. Changes in human activity (e.g., reduced travel) may temporarily alter local air quality and traffic-related emissions.

Social Environment

EIDs most strongly affect the social environment. Illness, isolation, and caregiving responsibilities reduce workforce availability, interrupt schooling and childcare, and strain household finances—especially for hourly and small-business workers. Behavioral-health needs rise due to stress, grief, and prolonged uncertainty, while misinformation can erode trust and complicate protective actions. Impacts are disproportionate for older adults, people with chronic conditions, low-income and uninsured residents, and those in congregate or high-exposure settings (schools, long-term care, logistics and retail).

Climate Impacts on EID

Climate does not directly “cause” EIDs, but it can shape risk conditions. Hotter summers and poor air-quality days can drive indoor crowding, increasing transmission opportunities for respiratory pathogens. Shifts in precipitation and temperature can extend vector seasons (ticks, mosquitoes) and alter wildlife–human interfaces that enable zoonotic spillover. Climate stress on infrastructure and households (e.g., heat waves, severe storms) can also complicate access to care and continuity of operations, amplifying the consequences of an outbreak when it coincides with other hazards.

Warren County’s vulnerability to emerging infectious diseases is heightened by its large and diverse population, regional healthcare and economic roles, and extensive daily movement of people through Bowling Green, Western Kentucky University, major employers, schools, and commercial centers. High-density housing areas, congregate living facilities, long-term care centers, childcare sites, and large workplaces create conditions that can accelerate person-to-person transmission. Populations with limited access to healthcare, chronic medical conditions, language barriers, or lack of reliable transportation are especially vulnerable to severe outcomes or delayed treatment. College students, service-industry workers, and individuals living in shared housing may experience faster spread during outbreaks. Rural households may have limited access to testing, primary care, or timely public-health guidance. Essential workforce sectors—manufacturing, logistics, food service, and healthcare—face operational risk and potential disruption during significant outbreaks. While strong local healthcare capacity can help buffer impacts, Warren County’s role as a regional hub means it remains vulnerable to rapid disease introduction, especially during periods of high mobility or reduced vaccination coverage.

Warren County has relatively high vulnerability in the BRADD region due to Bowling Green’s urban scale, university presence (Western Kentucky University), and concentration of healthcare, commerce, and transportation. The potential for rapid spread in congregate settings (residences, dorms, offices, public transit) is significant. However, the county also typically holds stronger public health infrastructure, hospital systems, and laboratory capacity. Continuous vigilance, vaccination outreach, and surge planning are essential to defend against major outbreaks.

The Kentucky Geological Survey (KGS) identifies two ways in which sinkholes collapse:

1. The roof of a cave becomes too thin to support the weight of the material above it and collapses.
2. Limestone bedrock develops a fracture that is enlarged by water dissolving the limestone. As the limestone erodes, the soil above it slowly falls into the developing sinkhole. This type of cover-collapse is typically very slow and occurs over a long period of time. Only in rare instances will limestone bedrock dissolution cause a rapid collapse.

Karst-related hazards happen quickly and without warning. However, scientists have mapped a large portion of the BRADD region to determine where these hazards are most likely to occur. A snapshot of this mapping is located above. to view a fully interactive map and explore sinkholes by jurisdiction, click on the link below.

The likelihood of new sinkhole formation or reactivation of existing depressions is moderate under current conditions and increasing with expanding development, aging stormwater systems, and heavier rainfall patterns. While most collapses are small and isolated, their unpredictability and potential to undermine roads or utilities justify continued monitoring and maintenance of known karst features.

Damages to human-made structures caused by sinkholes can range from minor to severe. Office buildings, homes, roads, utility lines, and other critical facility or structure located above a sinkhole could be affected. If the sinkhole is large enough, it can affect an entire building or home when it collapses. Minor sinkholes will cause brief damage and are usually fixed with simple excavation techniques.

Drainage water runs into sinkholes during heavy rains and will affect any structures built within the flood plain of a given sinkhole. Present sinkhole vulnerability to flooding can alter the urbanization plans and other forms of expansion and commercialization.

Transportation systems are greatly affected by sinkholes since much of the BRADD’s roadways and highways are constructed over sinkholes. When these sinkholes collapse they not only destroy the road itself but the ground beneath it. Intricate and expensive excavating techniques must be utilized to repair a roadway and its ground foundation affected by a sinkhole.

Because of the vast amount of sinkholes in the BRADD region, there is an extensive groundwater network that supplies public water systems serving many residents. Groundwater essentially originates from rain or other forms of precipitation that soak into the ground and move forward to fill cracks and other openings in soils and rocks. This permeable layer is known as an aquifer. Groundwater is also an abundance natural resource making up 9% of all the freshwater in the world. This water is a direct main source for usable, fresh water for over a million residents in Kentucky, including the Barren River region. For surface streams, groundwater provides as a base flow when it is not raining. Groundwater, especially in a karst environment, is highly susceptible to contamination. Impure rain water, septic tank effluent, agricultural pesticides, and animal waste all contribute to the contamination of groundwater through seepage and runoff. However, contamination problems are aggravated in karst areas by the practice of the disposal of solid and liquid wastes into sinkholes where they may be washed directly into the aquifer.

The natural environment is very vulnerable to the effects of sinkholes. Carbonic rock such as limestone is eroded away by acidic rain and water runoff. This carves out subterranean passages throughout the underside of the landscape. When the ground level clay or cohesive rock materials cannot support the weight, they cave in and fall into these passages. The result is a karst landscape. Sinkhole collapse greatly damages and alters the natural environment. Groundwater contamination can kill cave aquatic life.

People – Anyone living or working near sinkholes or within the drainage basin of a sinkhole is vulnerable. Karst can lead to radon-related health concerns, sinkhole collapse can lead to loss of life and property, groundwater contamination may lead to build-up of dangerous gases in homes and businesses, and flooding may cause drowning.

Economy – Cost of making repairs to property, repairing roads, preparing special foundations for large buildings, an extending public water lines to replace polluted groundwater.

There is an expected impact on sinkholes due to climate change. Increasing temperatures will likely affect hydrologic processes, enhance dissolution of limestone, and promote soil failure. It was found in one study that with every increase of 0.2ºF in global temperature, there is a 1-3% increase in the number of sinkholes, thus, there is a high possibility that an increase in sinkholes is due to climate change. With an increase in intense rain events, there could also be an increase in sinkholes opening due to runoff and undermining of soil.

Potential impacts include:

• Damage to roads and property
• Displacement of residents
• Transportation issues (traffic, blocked routes)
• Economic loss due to changes in development patterns or sinkholes/flooding

Working with AT&T’s Climate Resilient Communities Program and the Climate Risk and Resilience (ClimRR) Portal, BRADD identified additional opportunities for hazard mitigation action items associated with climate impacts for Karst Landscapes in the Barren River Region. To view an interactive report of these findings, click here.

Vulnerability in Warren County is high, driven by the county’s extensive karst terrain—particularly in and around Bowling Green, which contains one of the most densely developed karst landscapes in Kentucky. Sinkholes, depressions, and subsurface voids are widespread, and rapid urbanization along corridors such as Interstate 65, Interstate 165, US-231, and major commercial and residential growth zones increases exposure where site development, grading, or stormwater design does not fully account for complex underground drainage pathways. High-intensity rainfall can overwhelm clogged or undersized inlets, causing sudden sinkhole collapse, pavement failure, building settlement, or rapid surface flooding in parking lots, neighborhoods, and commercial centers. Critical infrastructure—including roads, utilities, stormwater systems, and large-footprint structures—is especially susceptible to damage when groundwater flow patterns change or when foundation loads are placed over unstable subsurface conditions. Proactive mitigation—including routine inspection and maintenance of ditches, culverts, stormwater structures, and known karst features, as well as geotechnical evaluation during development—remains essential. Strong coordination with KGS, KYTC, and local planning agencies is vital to ensure updated mapping, zoning review, and public education keep pace with the county’s high growth and associated karst risks.

Based on KGS’s data there are 14,009 Topo and LiDAR-identified sinkholes within Warren County. In the unincorporated areas of the county (only county land), there are 12,336 topo and LiDAR-identified sinkholes.

The majority of Warren County has very high karst/sinkhole potential. However, the northwestern corner of the county has little to no karst potential.

Due to these factors, Warren County experiences very high vulnerability to sinkholes. The risk for Warren County’s city is analyzed below.

Bowling Green has 1,585 identified sinkholes. Its vulnerability is high.

Oakland has 51 sinkholes. Its vulnerability is moderate.

Plum Springs has 9 sinkholes. Its vulnerability is low.

Smiths Grove has 17 sinkholes. Its vulnerability is low.

Woodburn has 11 sinkholes. Its vulnerability is low.

Landslide Susceptibility

During Kentucky’s 2018 Hazard Mitigation Plan update, Kentucky Geological Survey (KGS) developed a landslide susceptibility map for the state in order to show which areas have greater landslide risk due to slope and geology. Using the KGS data, BRADD staff created a landslide susceptibility dashboard for our 10-counties. Click on the button below to access the BRADD Landslide Dashboard.

The probability of landslides in Warren County is generally low to moderate and highly localized, reflecting the county’s mostly rolling terrain but with elevated risk in areas where slope, soil type, and drainage conditions align to create instability. Steeper stream valleys, road cuts, embankments, and fill slopes can become prone to failure during prolonged rainfall, high-intensity storm events, extended wet seasons, or rapid freeze–thaw cycles. Susceptibility increases on clay-rich soils, along incised creek corridors where banks are undercut, and in locations where construction alters drainage or slope geometry. Landslide activity in south-central Kentucky tends to be episodic, with quiet periods punctuated by clustered events following major storms.

Based on 30 years of regional data, Warren County has experienced 5 documented landslides, equating to 0.17 events per year, or roughly a 17% annual chance of at least one landslide occurring.

During Kentucky’s 2018 Hazard Mitigation Plan update, Kentucky Geological Survey (KGS) developed a landslide susceptibility map for the state in order to show which areas have greater landslide risk due to slope and geology. Using the KGS data, BRADD staff created a landslide susceptibility dashboard for our 10-counties. Click on the button below to access the BRADD Landslide Dashboard.

Human-made structures are directly affected by landslides. Any structures such as buildings, roads, bridges, street lighting, and power lines can be completely destroyed if in the direct life of the landslide.

Any roads or other transportation systems that are in the path of a landslide will be directly affected. Roads can either be covered by the debris or wiped completely away. Power lines and telecommunication networks would also be directly affected. Along with roads, telephone poles and towers can be damaged and ruined during the event of a landslide.

A landslide, itself, involves natural materials. The drastic displacement of earth, trees, and debris can cause persistent problems such as continued erosion. Landslides can carry contaminated materials into streams and other water bodies, directly affect wildlife by destroying wildlife habitats such as wooded areas, streams, and ponds. This can affect the ecosystem and all living things within it.

People

The vulnerability of a landslide do not affect one section of the population more than another. Anyone living in an area at high risk of a landslide will be affected. Landslides can occur spontaneously and randomly.

Economy

Economic costs associated with landslides are due to replacement costs for any property damaged. If transportation and telecommunication networks are damaged or destroyed, it may lead to business closures for a brief time.

There is limited evidence connecting climate change to an increase in landslides; however, it is theorized that more intense rainfall, rain-on-snow events, mean warming, permafrost thaw, glacier retreat, and coastal erosion can lead to rockface instability and decreased slope (IPCC 2022). There has been an increase in landslides in certain areas of the world and it is expected that there will be an increase in frequency in northwestern North America. Studies make these projections based on increasing rainfall intensity and frequency, so it is possible that the BRADD region may see minor impacts from these in the form of slumps and low-grade slope failure. Kentucky’s landslides mostly occur in Eastern Kentucky, so the BRADD region should not be significantly impacted.

• Potential impacts include:
• Infrastructure damage
• Ecosystem damage
• Loss of life
• Economic loss

Vulnerability concentrates where people and infrastructure intersect steep or engineered slopes: hillside homes, driveways, and outbuildings; roads and bridges on or beneath cut-and-fill sections; and utilities (water, sewer, gas, fiber) buried in or crossing unstable ground. Even small slope failures can close rural roads, isolate residences, damage culverts, and disrupt emergency response. Natural systems are affected through streambank failures, sedimentation, and habitat disturbance. Social impacts fall hardest on households with limited resources for slope stabilization and on areas with few alternate routes.

Since 1991, KGS has recorded 5 landslides in Warren County. This averages to .17 landslide events per year.

Because of these factors, Warren County experiences low vulnerability to landslide events. The risk for Warren County’s cities is analyzed below.

The City of Bowling Green has had no historic occurrences of landslide events. Its vulnerability is low.

The City of Plum Springs has had no historic occurrences of landslide events. Its vulnerability is low.

The City of Oakland has had no historic occurrences of landslide events. Its vulnerability is low.

The City of Smiths Grove has had two historic occurrences of landslide events. Its vulnerability is low.

The City of Woodburn has had no historic occurrences of landslide events. Its vulnerability is low. 

In addition to the current COVID-19 Pandemic, the Kentucky Cabinet for Health and Family Service explains that there have been four other pandemics in United States in the last 100 years: the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu, the 1956-1958 Asian Flu, the 1968-1969 Hong Kong Flu, and the 2009 Novel H1N1. Combined, these four pandemics have claimed thousands of lives in the Commonwealth, hundreds of thousands in the United States, and millions worldwide.

Spanish Influenza 1918-1919: Historical examples of pandemic demonstrate that while a pandemic may be devastating to a community from a life safety and economic standpoint, the threat was often downplayed and ignored. The 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic was initially disregarded as having a significant impact because influenza was thought of as a minor illness that incapacitated the sick for a relatively short period of time before they eventually recovered. However, as the Spanish Influenza rose to pandemic level, it redefined the public’s perception of the virus. A historian at the time noted that at a military encampment in southern Ohio, soldiers would arrive healthy and within twenty-four hours would be dead from the flu. The virus spread globally along trade routes and shipping lines. Residents of North American, Europe, Africa, Asia, Brazil, and the South Pacific were particularly affected by the illness, which in-total infected 1/5 of the global population. In contrast to the majority of flu strains, the Spanish Influenza primarily affected young, healthy adults between the ages of 20 and 40. The mortality rate was 2.5%, an astounding figure given that flu outbreaks typically have a rate of 0.1%. By the end of the pandemic, the virus had claimed 20 million lives worldwide and 675,000 in the United States.

Asian Flu 1956-1958: The New York Times first broke the news of the Asian Flu in 1957 when they published a story of a flu virus that had infected 250,000 in Hong Kong. Months after this story was published, the disease had spread to the United States. Unlike Spanish Influenza, the Asian Flu was most commonly reported in the vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and individuals with heart and lung conditions. People with rheumatic heart disease and women in their third trimester of pregnancy were uniquely impacted. Infection for this pandemic came in two parts—the first in the late summer of 1957 and the second in the winter of 1958. The death toll for the Asian Flu widely varies, with sources reporting between 1 and 4 million deaths worldwide and approximately 69,800 in the United States.

Hong Kong Flu 1968-1969: The Hong Kong Flu is the mildest of all pandemics of the 20th century, a fact that is often explained by its similarity to the Asian Flu which increased immunity to the 1968 strain and the fact that it hit the United States in late December when most students were on break, reducing opportunities for spread. As with the Asian Flu, the vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly, were most at risk. By the end of the pandemic in 1969, it had claimed 33,800 lives in the US.

H1N1 2009-2010: This pandemic first appeared in the United States in the spring of 2009. By June, H1N1 had infected 18,000 people in the US. The virus primarily affected the populations most typically affected by the flu: children and infants, pregnant women, the elderly, and individuals with prior-existing health conditions. Due to advancements in medical research and technology, the overall impact of the pandemic was curbed. A vaccine was introduced in the fall of 2009. Approximately 80 million people were vaccinated worldwide. By the time the pandemic was declared over in the spring of 2010, between 43-89 million people had been infected and between 8,870 and 18,300 people had died.

COVID-19 2020-2023: The most recent pandemic first appeared in the United States in the spring of 2020. By July 2020, COVID-19 had infected over 200,000 people worldwide. The virus initially primarily affected the elderly, and individuals with prior-existing health conditions, however as spread increased so did the populations at-risk. A vaccine was approved for use against the virus in December of 2020, and in May of 2023 the World Health Organization declared an end to the public health emergency of international concern.

The probability of another pandemic is moderate to high due to global mobility, zoonotic spillover risk, and pathogen evolution, even as surveillance and vaccination moderate some risk. For Warren County, this translates to ongoing planning assumptions and readiness for periodic surges.

Infrastructure could be impacted due to lack of repair and upkeep if pandemic is extensive and lengthy; Utility lines and repairs would take longer to repair due to manpower lost.

Potential increased loss of agricultural assets (crop & livestock) due to loss of manpower to harvest crop; fewer livestock and crop markets due to restriction of crowds which prevent spread of pandemic disease;

People

Farmers-pandemic could affect crop production & yield since they could not seed or harvest; General populace -would be impacted due to both physical and psychological impacts of disease; Possible school closures would aid in disrupting spread of disease; Vulnerable populations may experience more impacts due to synergistic effects of pandemic symptomology. Additionally, the county could expirence increased emergency clinical care visits, more hospitalization (upwards 1-4% symptomatic patients will require hospitalization) leading to severe and overwhelming impacts on healthcare and public health system; workforce absences leading to minimal patient care

Economy

Pandemic can cause business slowdown or even recession; decreased food and merchandise shipped throughout area would increase cost; loss of buyers and sellers due to potential risk of contagion. Increased staff absences (upwards 50% workforce may require time off over entire period of pandemic).

The 2016 Global Risk Report published by the World Economic Forum has proposed that climate change could be a causal factor in future pandemics. This finding is further explored in a 2016 report produced by Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, Pandemics in a Changing Climate – Evolving Risk & Global Response. The report explains that vector ecology indicates the potential for climate change to create the conditions for future pandemics. Changes in temperature, precipitation, and pH levels due to climate change will impact the quantity and quality of ecological services, such as food, water, and soil. Ecosystem shifts can impact the migratory patterns, habitats, population, and survivability of certain animal and insect populations. Such changes may increase human-animal or human-insect contact, increasing the likelihood of transmission. For example, as hot summer months extend tick and mosquito populations, both culprits in transmission of epidemic-causing viruses, can survive longer and have more opportunities to infect humans. Climate change may have more direct impacts on humans by making certain populations, particularly in developing countries, more susceptible to illness by creating food and water security crises.

Warren County’s vulnerability is countywide and driven by: (1) population exposure in schools, universities, workplaces, and other high-density or congregate settings; (2) health-system capacity, including surge staffing, ICU availability, laboratory/testing throughput, and supply-chain stability; (3) critical-infrastructure staffing for utilities, public safety, EMS, and healthcare; and (4) social factors, such as older adults, individuals with chronic illnesses, low-income or uninsured residents, and those with limited access to transportation or primary care. The region’s COVID-19 experience—marked by hospital surges at major healthcare facilities in Bowling Green, widespread workplace and school disruptions, and rapid transmission in congregate environments—demonstrates that even when case counts fluctuate, impacts cascade across every sector, affecting public health, education, essential services, and economic stability.

Warren County is the most vulnerable within BRADD in many respects. Bowling Green’s urban density, presence of Western Kentucky University, multiple hospitals, and numerous institutions constitute both exposure points and capacity centers. The county likely will absorb many of the region’s surge cases. The relatively stronger health infrastructure provides advantages, but pandemics of high scale may stress its limits.

Location: Severe storms are treated as a region-wide, non-spatial hazard; no jurisdiction is inherently more likely to be struck, though more built-up places see greater damages. For Allen, that means exposure countywide, with higher potential property impacts in and around Scottsville.

Extent: The profile evaluates hail, wind, and lightning (tornadoes are handled separately). Severe thunderstorms are defined by hail ≥ ¾”, wind gusts ≥ 50 knots (57.5 mph), or a tornado. Straight-line winds in extreme cases can exceed 100 mph.

Past events / occurrence: Allen County has recorded 105 severe storm events over 21 years (≈ 5 events annually).

The BRADD region’s probability of severe storms is rated High  based on annual frequency; this regional rating applies to Barren County as well.

• Warren: 198 severe storm events/21 years = 9.42 wind events annually

Vehicles, roofs, windows, utilities, roads, and culverts are vulnerable; straight-line winds  can down trees/power lines, causing outages from hours to weeks.

Increased stormwater runoff, localized flooding, tree loss, and impacts to fish/wildlife;  crop and livestock damage are common consequences.

Outdoor workers and people without timely warnings (boaters, campers, farmers, construction crews) are especially susceptible; damages can trigger brief  business closures where transport/telecom are affected.

Research indicates climate change is increasing the number of days with sufficient CAPE and vertical wind shear to produce severe storms (hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes), implying more frequent environments favorable to severe weather in the region.

Warren County has experienced nearly 200 severe storm events over the past 21 years (averaging 9 or more events per year), and, because of these factors, Warren County—and its cities of Bowling Green, Smiths Grove, Oakland, Plum Springs, and Woodburn—experience high vulnerability to severe storms.

Warren County has experienced 198 severe storm events/21 years = 9.42 wind events annually.

Because of these factors, Warren County experiences high vulnerability to severe storms. Bowling Green, Plum Springs, Oakland, Smiths Grove, and Woodburn all reflect Warren County’s overall history of severe storms, and therefore experience high vulnerability as well.

Because terrorism is intentional and adversarial, traditional frequency-based risk assessments are not sufficient for evaluating potential impacts. Unlike natural hazards, terrorism cannot be forecasted or modeled using historical trends alone. Effective assessment must incorporate intelligence inputs, threat actor capabilities, and scenario planning to understand possible modes of attack and associated vulnerabilities.

At present, there is limited differentiation between types of terrorism that may affect the region. Distinguishing between domestic and international threats, as well as between physical, cyber, or hybrid forms of terrorism, can help clarify risk pathways and improve mitigation strategies. The region’s profile would also benefit from identifying and assessing critical infrastructure and “soft targets” that may be more susceptible to intentional acts, such as public gathering venues, utilities, schools, and government facilities.

Because terrorism is intentional and adversarial, you cannot rely solely on historical frequency to derive probability. Many risk models for terrorism must incorporate intelligence assessments, threat actor capabilities, and scenario planning.

While the page references terrorism conceptually, it does not currently include coordination protocols with law enforcement, fusion centers, or homeland security partners that monitor and share threat intelligence. Strengthening interagency coordination—particularly with local emergency management, police, and state agencies—would provide a more credible understanding of regional exposure and response capability.

Cascading and secondary effects of terrorism events, such as public panic, misinformation, economic disruption, and strain on emergency and health systems, are also important considerations. The social and psychological impacts of terrorism can be significant even when physical damage is limited, underscoring the need to plan for behavioral health support and long-term community recovery.

Additionally, the region’s profile does not currently evaluate local preparedness measures such as continuity of operations plans (COOP), security assessments, or mass-casualty response capacity, which are key indicators of resilience. Future updates should also consider emerging risks, such as cyber-physical attacks on utilities and critical networks, and how these may intersect with traditional forms of terrorism.

Finally, it is important to acknowledge both the limitations and sensitivities of terrorism-related data. Some information—such as specific target locations or threat intelligence—cannot be publicly shared due to security concerns. Nonetheless, transparency in describing the general methods, assumptions, and partnerships used to assess terrorism risk would enhance credibility while maintaining confidentiality.

Terrorism can destroy or damage buildings and critical lifelines (power, water/wastewater, transportation, and communications), with impacts dictated by the attack method and proximity to critical nodes.

Acts such as agro-terrorism or hazardous-materials release can contaminate soil, water, or wildlife habitat, and BRADD explicitly notes potential destruction of natural resources under certain attack types.

Intentional acts are designed to cause casualties, widespread fear, and economic disruption; BRADD highlights life-safety risks, psychological effects, and local economic shocks due to reduced participation and interrupted operations.

Climate stressors (e.g., pressures on marginalized populations, aging infrastructure, and periods of civil unrest) may elevate susceptibility to terrorism-related activities, including threats to infrastructure, property, and cyber/economic systems, even though overall climate-driven terrorism risk for the region remains low. 

Warren County’s vulnerability concentrates where people, infrastructure, and essential services intersect—including major government and school campuses, Western Kentucky University, healthcare facilities, utilities, large commercial and industrial hubs, and other high-occupancy or cyber-dependent operations. Bowling Green’s role as a regional center for education, employment, manufacturing, and commerce further increases the concentration of critical functions that could be disrupted during severe storms. For planning purposes, Warren County should assume countywide exposure, with the highest consequence potential at critical-infrastructure sites, densely populated areas, and facilities that rely heavily on uninterrupted power, communications, and technology systems.

Warren County has the highest relative vulnerability to terrorism within the BRADD region due to its population density, economic activity, and presence of critical regional infrastructure. Bowling Green, as a major urban and educational center, contains government offices, healthcare facilities, Western Kentucky University, and large public venues that could serve as potential soft targets. The county’s diverse population, transportation corridors, and economic importance increase exposure, but robust local emergency management capacity, mutual aid agreements, and active coordination with law enforcement agencies significantly enhance preparedness and response capability.

Tornado severity in Warren County can range from brief, weak EF-0/EF-1 touchdowns to rare, high-end EF-3+ events capable of destroying well-built structures; the EF categories and related wind speeds set the bounds for plausible damage.

From 2000–2025, Warren County experienced 11 tornadoes (≈ 44% chance of at least one tornado in a given year). Since 1950, tornadoes that touched down in the county have caused 51 injuries and 2 deaths. Regional context includes the December 10–11, 2021 outbreak, with multiple long-track and high-end events affecting neighboring counties.

Tornado exposure is countywide and non-spatial at planning scale; consequences concentrate where people and assets are located (e.g., Scottsville, major corridors, and higher-occupancy or vulnerable housing areas such as mobile homes).

A potent storm system moved across the central United States on December 10-11, 2021 resulting in widespread severe weather. Numerous tornadoes occurred with storms that traveled through Kentucky Friday evening into Saturday morning (Dec 10-11) including a significant long track tornado that devastated Mayfield, KY. This tornado began near Woodland Mills, Tennessee, and stayed on the ground all the way to Falls of Rough, Kentucky; a distance of 165.7 miles (  weather.gov).

On January 1, 2022 an EF-0 tornado hit the south side of Bowling Green.

NWS Storm Survey Teams found an area of straight line winds of 70 to 75 mph, beginning at the Hunting Creek subdivision off of Cave Mill Road. Along Cave Mill Road fences were blown down, minor shingle damage to homes occurred, and many pine and cedar trees were snapped and topped.

At the intersection of Curtis and Cave Mill Rd, there was a change in the damage pattern. The damage became more concentrated with gutters, shingles, roof, and soffit damage. Trees were snapped and uprooted facing to the north, northeast, and east southeasterly direction. Clear evidence was found of a weak tornado that formed with winds estimated between 80 and 85 mph. The tornado was slightly elevated off the ground and was very intermittent.

The tornado lifted just before the Marriott TownePlace Suites on Cave Mill Rd, and then there was sporadic straight-wind damage all the way to Ashton Parc Apartments off of Shive Lane. Thornton Furniture had the most damage from the straight-line winds with roofing and facade damage.

Read More at:  https://www.wbko.com/2022/01/02/nws-confirms-tornado-hit-south-side-bowling-green-new-years-day/#:~:…,line%20winds%20to%2075%20mph

BRADD rates overall regional probability for tornadoes as high, based on historical frequency, wind-zone classification, and FEMA definitions. Warren County’s recent history (11 events/25 years) supports an ongoing, recurring likelihood at the county scale.

Tornadoes can damage or destroy homes and businesses, topple transmission and distribution lines, block roads and bridges with debris, and interrupt power, communications, and water/wastewater services.

Tornadoes can fell trees, damage crops and farm structures, degrade habitats, and increase fire risk where dead or downed timber is not removed.

Tornadoes can cause deaths and injuries, trigger temporary but significant economic disruption, and reduce local revenue and productivity during recovery.

While attribution is complex at tornado scale, research indicates fewer “one-tornado” days and more multi-tornado cluster days, linked to increases in days with high CAPE and sufficient vertical wind shear; this implies more days conducive to severe storms—a planning consideration for warning, sheltering, and surge response.

Vulnerability in Warren County is moderate to high, reflecting the county’s mix of dense urban development, rapidly growing suburbs, older rural housing stock, and the continued presence of manufactured homes in both incorporated and unincorporated areas. Critical vulnerabilities include mobile home communities, schools, universities, and public facilities without FEMA P-361–compliant safe rooms, and gaps in indoor warning coverage in portions of rural Warren County. Bowling Green’s large student population, multi-family housing complexes, and high-occupancy commercial areas also face elevated exposure during nighttime or fast-moving tornado events. Priority mitigation actions include constructing or identifying community safe rooms, expanding NOAA Weather Radio and Wireless Emergency Alert (WEA) coverage, and strengthening public education on sheltering, warning response, and nighttime preparedness. Continued coordination with utility providers to harden overhead grid segments, improve vegetation management, and enhance redundancy will help reduce secondary impacts from wind damage and support faster recovery following severe storm events.

Between 2000 and 2021, Warren County has experienced 9 tornadoes/21years =43% chance of a tornado happening in a given year.

Since 1950, tornadoes that touched down in Warren County have caused 51 injuries and 2 deaths.

Warren County contains one census tract wherein at least 25% of all housing units are mobile homes.

Because of these factors, Warren County experiences high vulnerability to tornadoes. Bowling Green, Plum Springs, Oakland, Smiths Grove, and Woodburn all reflect Warren County’s overall history of tornado events, and therefore experience high vulnerability as well.

Extent is characterized by the number and severity of winter storm, heavy snow, and ice storm events (including federally declared disasters). The BRADD region recorded multiple FEMA winter-storm disaster declarations between 2000 and 2020 and 66 reportable winter storm events in that period.

From 2000–2025, Warren County experienced 22 severe winter storms, including a 2013 freezing-rain event that caused several car accidents throughout Bowling Green (≈$40,000 damage).

Exposure is countywide (non-spatial at the planning scale), with impacts most evident where people, infrastructure, and travel corridors concentrate.

Regionally, BRADD rates future winter-storm probability as moderate. Warren County’s observed history (22 events over 2000–2025) supports a similar, recurring likelihood at the county scale, with year-to-year variability driven by storm track and ice versus snow dominance.

Winter storms can damage roofs under snow load, break limbs that fall onto buildings and vehicles, down power lines, and block roads and bridges with snow/ice and debris; even modest icing can disrupt utilities and emergency response.

Extended snow/ice cover can alter habitats and timing of species behavior; out-of-season events can injure or kill vegetation and damage crops and trees.

Hazardous travel, power outages, and isolation elevate risks for households—especially older adults or people with medical needs—while business closures and school disruptions impose community-wide costs.

Changing winter characteristics: warmer winters overall, fewer heavy snowmelt events, more precipitation falling as rain/ice in the Southeast, a lengthening freeze-free season, and related economic and infrastructure stresses—factors that may shift Allen County’s winter risk mix toward icing events and infrastructure sensitivity even as extreme cold snaps still occur.

The table below displays ice storm, winter storms, and heavy snow events that were reported to NOAA and NWS between 2000 and 2020. While not each of these events received a FEMA declaration, each showed clear characteristics of a severe winter storm.

Between 2000 and 2020, NOAA and NWS reported 18 severe winter storms in Warren County.

On average, Warren County has experienced 6 winter storm events/21 years. This equates to a 0.29% chance of a winter storm event in Warren County annually.

In January of 2015, winter weather conditions caused $40,000 in property damage in Warren County.

Because of these factors, Warren County experiences moderate vulnerability to winter storm events. Bowling Green, Plum Springs, Oakland, Smiths Grove, and Woodburn reflect Warren County’s overall history of winter storms, and therefore experience moderate vulnerability as well.