Hazards in Simpson County

Quality of Dam Infrastructure

The American Society of Civil Engineers gave Kentucky a D+ on dam infrastructure, which is only slightly better than the national average. The average US dam is 60 years old, and most dams in Kentucky are over 50. As of 2019, 80 dams in the state are classified as two-fold risks, meaning that they are both high hazards and in poor or unsatisfactory condition. 47% of these 80 dams received that rating partially because they cannot hold enough rain during catastrophic storms. 89% of high hazard dams in Kentucky do not have complete emergency action plans on file with the state. 74% have simplified draft plans, but these are not widely shared and have not been adopted by local officials.

Types of Dam Failure

There are three types of Dam Failure:

1. Structural: This common cause is responsible for nearly 30% of all dam failure in the United States. Structural failure of a dam occurs when there is a rupture in the dam or its foundation.
2. Mechanical: Refers to the failure or malfunctioning of gates, conduits, or valves.
3. Hydraulic: Occurs when the uncontrolled flow of water over the top, around, and adjacent to the dam erodes its foundation. Hydraulic failure is the cause of approximately 34% of all dam failures.

History of Dam Failure

The National Performance of Dams Program (NPDP), which maintains a database of dam failures for all structures listed in the National Inventory of Dams, identifies ten dam failures in Kentucky since 1850—none of which occurred within the Barren River Region. In Simpson County, areas downstream of regulated and unregulated impoundments—particularly those along Drakes Creek, West Fork Drakes Creek, Middle Fork Drakes Creek, and associated tributaries—would be the primary areas of concern in the event of a dam breach. Potential impacts include deep, fast-moving floodwaters capable of affecting rural residences, local roadways and bridges, utility corridors, and extensive agricultural lands located within mapped or expected inundation paths.

Probability

The probability of dam failure in Simpson County is considered low. No historical dam failures have been recorded within the county or elsewhere in the Barren River Region, and most dams in the area are relatively small, privately owned agricultural or recreational impoundments with limited storage capacity. Regulated dams undergo periodic inspections through the Kentucky Division of Water, further reducing the likelihood of catastrophic failure.

However, localized risks remain, particularly for older, privately maintained dams that may lack formal inspection, engineering review, or routine maintenance. Heavy rainfall, prolonged wet periods, and extreme storm events—conditions that are becoming more frequent with shifting climate patterns—can increase hydraulic pressure, overtopping potential, or structural instability. While the probability of a major dam failure remains low, the possibility of partial breaches, overtopping, or spillway-related issues is elevated during high-intensity rainfall events, warranting continued monitoring and public outreach to dam owners.

Overall, Simpson County’s dam failure probability is rated Low to Low-Moderate, with the highest risk occurring during or immediately after severe storm events that produce excessive runoff.

Built Environment:

A breach can produce rapid inundation that damages or destroys buildings, blocks roads with debris, disrupts traffic and emergency services, and threatens water/wastewater systems—especially if a reservoir supplies drinking water.

Natural Environment:

Floodwaves can scour channels, mobilize debris and contaminants, and disrupt aquatic habitats and riparian systems.

Social Environment:

Fast-arriving floodwaters elevate life-safety risk, particularly for people living/working in low-lying downstream areas with limited warning or evacuation options.

Climate Impacts on Dam Failure:

Increasingly intense rainfall, longer wet periods, and more frequent extreme storm events can raise hydraulic loading on dams, heighten the risk of overtopping, accelerate erosion of embankments and spillways, and reduce warning/response time. Climate-driven shifts can also stress aging infrastructure and complicate reservoir operations (e.g., balancing flood control with drought storage), making proactive maintenance, updated hydrologic/hydraulic studies, and EAP exercises even more critical.

Simpson County’s vulnerability to dam failure is generally low, but localized areas remain susceptible due to the county’s landscape, settlement patterns, and reliance on rural impoundments. Most dams in Simpson County are small, privately owned structures used for agricultural water storage, livestock, or recreational purposes. These dams typically have limited downstream consequences; however, their vulnerability is influenced by varying levels of maintenance, undocumented structural conditions, and lack of formal emergency action plans.

Downstream areas of Drakes Creek, West Fork Drakes Creek, and Middle Fork Drakes Creek contain clusters of rural residences, farmsteads, county roads, and utility corridors that could experience impacts from a sudden release of water. Mobile homes and older single-family structures located near low-water crossings or within narrow drainage valleys are at comparatively higher risk due to reduced structural resilience and limited sheltering options.

Critical infrastructure—such as low-lying segments of local roads, small bridges, culverts, and agricultural facilities—may also be affected by fast-moving water, debris flows, or erosion if a dam breach were to occur. While population exposure is limited, the county’s agricultural economy, rural transportation network, and scattered residential development patterns increase vulnerability in specific downstream pockets, particularly during severe weather events that elevate hydraulic stress on dams.

Overall, Simpson County’s vulnerability is characterized as Low, with localized Low-Moderate vulnerability in downstream areas of aging or privately maintained dams lacking regular inspection or documented maintenance.

Downstream neighborhoods and commercial corridors could experience rapid inundation and debris impacts, with secondary consequences to water and wastewater facilities. Ensuring EAP awareness among local officials and the public can reduce life-safety impacts where warning times are short.

Location/Extent

Drought affects the entirety of Simpson County, with especially significant consequences in rural agricultural areas that rely on dependable irrigation and livestock water. During extended dry periods, Barren River Lake levels can drop, affecting recreation and municipal supply. Historical droughts have driven soil-moisture deficits exceeding ~50% and reduced viability of staple crops such as corn and soybeans.

Past Events

Notable events include the 2012 drought, when much of Kentucky—including Simpson County—reached D3 (Extreme Drought) on the U.S. Drought Monitor, with widespread agricultural losses, elevated fire risk, and water shortages. From 2000–2025, Simpson County experienced ~55 weeks of D2 (Moderate) and ~13 weeks of D3 (Severe/Extreme) drought; USDA issued drought disaster declarations in 2022 and 2023 for documented production losses.

Probability

Long-term monitoring indicates drought is a recurrent hazard. Simpson County experienced 650 total weeks of drought over the last 25 years—about a 50% chance that any given week features drought conditions. Projections suggest drought likelihood may increase with climate change as rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns extend dry periods.

Built Environment:

Lower reservoir and well levels can strain municipal water systems, increase infrastructure operating costs (e.g., pumping/energy), and trigger usage restrictions for businesses and institutions; prolonged deficits can reduce fire-flow availability for rural systems.

Natural Environment:

Drought reduces streamflow and aquatic habitat quality, stresses forests and grasslands, and can degrade water quality as lower volumes concentrate pollutants.

Social Environment:

The largest local effects are economic losses in agriculture (crop failures, livestock stress, higher irrigation costs) and secondary risks such as increased wildfire potential; households and small businesses can face water shortages and higher costs.

Climate Impacts on Dam Failure:

Rising temperatures increase evapotranspiration and soil‐moisture loss, while shifting precipitation patterns can produce longer dry spells punctuated by intense storms that do little to recharge groundwater. Hotter summers elevate water demand, stress crops and livestock, worsen algal blooms and other water-quality issues in low flows, and compound risks when heat waves coincide with drought—intensifying health, agricultural, and infrastructure impacts across Simpson County.

Drought Vulnerability in the BRADD Region

Soil Susceptibility

Soil’s susceptibility to drought varies due to a myriad of factors. The map below depicts vulnerability to drought based on soil type from a moisture retention and availability perspective. For example a shallow fragipan limits the depth of the soil making it more vulnerable to moisture loss. Grey areas indicate that no soil data was available due to lakes, heavily urbanized areas, or strip mining. Susceptibility to Drought Scores were established using the criteria of infiltration, water movement, and water supply for the soils defined in the NRCS Soil Surveys that encompass the state.

Simpson County’s vulnerability is shaped by its strong agricultural base, reliance on surface and groundwater resources in rural areas, and the exposure of water-dependent industries—particularly those in and around Franklin—to supply constraints during prolonged dry periods. Countywide exposure means that both agricultural operations and municipal systems can be affected: farms through reduced crop yields, stressed pasture and hay production, and impacts to livestock herds, and the City of Franklin through supply management measures, conservation requirements, or rate adjustments when drought persists. Vulnerability is heightened when extended dry conditions coincide with peak seasonal demand, and in areas where smaller rural systems, private wells, or agricultural operations have limited storage capacity, redundancy, or alternative water sources.

Simpson County’s public water system demonstrates low to high vulnerability to drought.

The soil susceptibility map indicates that the majority of Simpson County’s soil experiences low susceptibility to drought. However, pockets of soil in the western portion of the county do have a moderately high susceptibility to drought.

Overall, Simpson County has a moderately low vulnerability to drought. Because drought is a non-spatial hazard, this same analysis can be applied to its respective city – Franklin.

Location/Extent

Past Events

Within BRADD, only a handful of small M≥3 events have been recorded historically, and Simpson County itself shows no recorded earthquakes in the regional summary (no damage reported).

Probability

Scientists estimate that there is a 25-40% probability of a 6.0 or higher magnitude earthquake within any 50-year period. Though Western Kentucky has not experienced any recent earthquakes that have caused major structural damage, the potential for such an event warrants local government, residents, and businesses within the BRADD region to take precaution and implement plans, procedures, and projects to mitigate the impact of a strong earthquake. It’s really not a question of if but when. Earthquakes can occur at any time of year and warning time is essentially nonexistent. Simpson County has one major fault line mapped, and would feel regional events; site soils can amplify shaking.

An earthquake could result in structural damage to older buildings, critical facilities, and infrastructure not designed to modern seismic codes. Bridges, utilities, and water systems could sustain significant damage, leading to service disruptions. Secondary impacts might include landslides in certain areas, hazardous material spills, and challenges in emergency response due to blocked roads and damaged communication systems. Economic losses could be substantial, particularly for uninsured property owners.

Built Environment:

Shaking can damage homes and business structures, collapse unreinforced elements, and disrupt roads/bridges, power, water/wastewater, and telecom. Post-event debris and utility outages can hinder emergency response.

Natural Environment:

Secondary effects—liquefaction, landslides, fires, and hazmat releases—can degrade soils, waterways, and habitats.

Social Environment:

Transportation disruption, hospital surge, power/water interruptions, and communications overload elevate life-safety risk and complicate reunification and care for vulnerable groups (children, older adults, LEP populations).

Climate Impacts on Earthquakes:

While climate change does not drive tectonic earthquakes, hydrologic extremes (prolonged drought, heavy precipitation, groundwater withdrawal/recharge) may alter subsurface stresses in limited contexts. The BRADD region has an overall low earthquake risk, so any climate influence on local frequency/severity is likely minor relative to tectonic controls.

Earthquake Vulnerability in Allen County

Allen County is mapped in a “light perceived shaking” zone for high-magnitude regional scenarios and does not contain significant local fault lines. Because earthquakes are non-spatial at the county scale, this vulnerability characterization applies countywide (including Scottsville). Key sensitivity factors remain older/unnretrofitted buildings, critical facilities, bridges, and lifelines on softer soils or in potential liquefaction areas.

Simpson County’s vulnerability to earthquakes is generally low, but not negligible, due to its geographic position between two regional seismic zones—the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) to the west and the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone (WVSZ) to the northwest. While strong shaking is unlikely, moderate, long-duration ground motion from distant events remains possible, and could affect structures not built to modern seismic standards. Vulnerability is elevated for older homes, unreinforced masonry buildings in downtown Franklin, manufactured housing, and critical facilities with limited structural retrofitting. Rural utility networks, including waterlines, gas lines, and electrical distribution systems, may also experience service disruptions or breakage from soil movement. Although population exposure is moderate and the county has not experienced damaging earthquakes historically, aging infrastructure, pockets of older housing stock, and the prevalence of manufactured homes contribute to low-to-moderate vulnerability should a regional seismic event occur.

Simpson County is within the “light” perceived shaking zone for a high magnitude earthquake and does not contain significant fault lines.

Because of these factors, Simpson County experiences low vulnerability to earthquakes. Because earthquakes are non-spatial hazards, it can be assumed that this analysis should be applied to Simpson County’s respective city – Franklin.

Location/Extent

Location and Extent

Extreme temperature events affect the entire county, but vulnerable populations, such as the elderly, children, and those with chronic illnesses, are disproportionately impacted. Agricultural areas and infrastructure such as power grids and water systems are also at higher risk during these events. Heat waves can result in prolonged discomfort and strain on health systems, while extreme cold can lead to frozen pipes, power outages, and increased heating costs.

Historical Occurrences

In recent history, Simpson County has experienced notable extreme temperature events. The 2012 heat wave resulted in numerous heat advisories and elevated heat-related hospital visits across the region. Similarly, the January 2014 polar vortex brought record-breaking low temperatures to the area, causing widespread pipe bursts and heating system failures.

Probability

The probability of extreme temperature events in Simpson County is increasing. Climate projections suggest more frequent and severe heat waves in the coming decades due to rising global temperatures.

Winter cold snaps, though less frequent, remain a risk, especially during years of heightened Arctic activity.

Extreme heat can lead to heat exhaustion and heatstroke, particularly in outdoor workers, the elderly, and low-income households without access to cooling. It also increases energy demand, raising utility costs and the likelihood of power outages. Severe cold poses risks of frostbite, hypothermia, and infrastructure damage, including frozen pipes and malfunctioning heating systems. Both extremes can disrupt agricultural yields, livestock health, and local economies.

Built Environment:

Cold can burst buried water pipes, strain metal bridge members, and affect trucking/rail operations (e.g., diesel gelling). Heat can soften asphalt, stress vehicle cooling systems and rail operations, and increase water demand, sometimes reducing fire-flow availability.

Natural Environment:

Cold snaps threaten livestock and wildlife and can freeze ponds/streams. Heat can degrade water quality, drive algal blooms, and reduce crop yields and dairy productivity.

Social Environment:

Cold elevates exposure risks for people without adequate shelter or heat and can increase CO poisoning and fire risk; both cold and heat create economic losses (e.g., utility repair, agriculture) and can trigger business/school closures. Heat is the leading U.S. weather-related killer, with illnesses from fatigue to heat stroke.

Climate Impacts on Extreme Temperatures:

Climate change models predict and increase in overall temperature globally for the coming decades, including the BRADD region. With a potential rise of several degrees Fahrenheit, multiple services, systems, and activities face disruption and impact. Temperature increases this small may not seem threatening, but the cumulative impacts will affect weather events, human health, and ecosystem functions, along with economic and social issues related to energy use and cost of living.

Working with  AT&T’s Climate Resilient Communities Program and the  Climate Risk and Resilience (ClimRR) Portal, BRADD identified additional opportunities for hazard mitigation action items associated with climate impacts for Extreme Temperatures in the Barren River Region. To view an interactive report of these findings,   click here.

At a county scale, extreme temperatures are non-spatial, so exposure is countywide. Simpson County’s extreme cold vulnerability is rated moderate overall (with Franklin noted as high) based on past watches/warnings and sensitivity to power-outage cold snaps.

For extreme heat, Simpson shows moderate to high vulnerability, reflecting its ~37 heat-days/year baseline and sensitivity in smaller urban areas to urban heat island effects.

Since 2010, Simpson County has experienced one wind chill watch (2014) and one wind chill warning (2015).

Because of these factors, Simpson County experiences moderate vulnerability to extreme cold events. Franklin reflects Simpson County’s overall history of extreme cold, and therefore, experiences high vulnerability as well.

On average, Simpson County experienced 36.7 extreme heat days per year between 2010 and 2016.

Because of these factors, Simpson County experiences moderate to high vulnerability to extreme heat events. Franklin reflects Simpson County’s overall history of extreme heat, and therefore experiences moderate to high vulnerability as well.

Flood-prone areas in Simpson County include low-lying and creek-adjacent locations, particularly along Drakes Creek, West Fork Drakes Creek, Middle Fork Drakes Creek, Sulphur Spring Creek, and tributary channels. Portions of Franklin and surrounding rural basins experience recurrent flash flooding, especially where older drainage systems, undersized culverts, or shallow road dips create bottlenecks during high-intensity rainfall. According to the First Street Foundation, an estimated 1,030 properties (approximately 8–9%) in Simpson County have a 30-year flood risk, with a subset classified as being at major to severe risk, reflecting vulnerability in neighborhoods and agricultural corridors where flood depths may exceed 2–3 feet, particularly in areas with poor drainage or limited topographic relief.

Projections from the  Climate Risk and Resilience Portal (CLIMRR) indicate that the annual number of days with extreme precipitation (>1 inch per day) in Simpson County is expected to increase by 5–10% by mid-century under moderate emissions scenarios. This suggests a growing likelihood of flash flooding during spring and summer storm seasons and a heightened risk of localized flooding around rural road crossings, small bridges, and low-lying neighborhoods in and around the City of Franklin.

Simpson County (Unincorporated) currently has zero (0) Repetitive-Loss (RL) or Severe Repetitive-Loss (SRL) properties, based on National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) definitions. Both NFIP and FMA maintain separate definitions of “Repetitive-Loss” and “Severe Repetitive-Loss,” but no properties in the unincorporated county meet any of these thresholds.

The City of Franklin also has zero (0) Repetitive-Loss or Severe Repetitive-Loss properties under both NFIP and FMA definitions. While localized flood issues occur—particularly near older subdivisions, commercial corridors, and creek-adjacent areas—no properties currently meet NFIP or FMA criteria for RL or SRL status.

Simpson County has experienced multiple damaging flood events, most notably during the May 2010 regional flooding, when Drakes Creek and its forks overtopped their banks, inundating rural roads, agricultural areas, and low-lying sections of Franklin. More recent flooding in February and April 2025 brought record rainfall and elevated water levels along Drakes Creek and Sulphur Spring Creek, resulting in roadway closures, debris blockages at culverts, and damage to farmland and rural residences. These events illustrate that even moderate rainfall falling on saturated soils can create hazardous conditions, overwhelm local drainage systems, and trigger local emergencies across both incorporated and unincorporated areas of the county.

Click Here to view a summary of all past Disaster Declarations in the BRADD Region.

Below you will find a listing of past NOAA Flood and Flash-Flood Events from 2000-2020 for Simpson County.

The probability of flooding in Simpson County is assessed as High, with both flash flooding and riverine flooding expected to occur on a recurring basis. Historical patterns—including events in 2010, 2019, 2021, and 2025—demonstrate that the county experiences flood impacts multiple times per decade, particularly during late winter and spring when soils are saturated and rainfall totals are elevated. Climate projections from CLIMRR and similar datasets indicate that extreme precipitation events are likely to increase by 5–10% by mid-century, suggesting that the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall will rise over time.

Flash flooding remains the most probable type of event, especially in drainage-constrained areas of Franklin and along rural corridors where undersized culverts, low-water crossings, and shallow ditches lead to rapid ponding or overflow. Riverine flooding along Drakes Creek, West Fork Drakes Creek, Middle Fork Drakes Creek, and Sulphur Spring Creek is expected to continue periodically, particularly following multi-day rainfall or backwater effects. Given the combination of local hydrology, development patterns, and projected climate trends, the county is likely to experience multiple flood events each decade, with localized flash flooding possible several times per year under extreme rainfall conditions.

Built Environment:

Flooding can cause structural damage to both residential and commercial buildings and destroy furnishing and inventory.
Flooding will causes inconvenience or stoppage to many system. Transportation systems such as roads and railways become unpassable. Large amounts of water from a flood can affect water management systems such as the backup or hiatus of drainage, sanitary, and sewer systems. As heavy rains persist during a flood event, excess water drains into the ground water system. This causes the water table to rise and cause further ground water floods. If chemicals are mixed with flood waters, this can contaminate the ground water, a common source of fresh water for communities.

Natural Environment:

As flood waters engulf the surrounding natural environment, they are saturated with chemicals and other substances associated with the manmade environment that they have also been in contact with. As these abnormal waters settle and flows through natural ecosystems they can alter and even destroy both plant and animal life. When the flow of flood waters becomes so immense, it can physically destroy or uproot naturally growing vegetation and also drive specific species of animals out of their natural habitats for good.

Social Environment:

People
People with property located in the floodplain or within areas subject to seepage are vulnerable to flooding. Stoppage to transportation systems can make it very difficult for isolated populations to receive aid or escape breeching flood waters. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly or people who need medical attention, may be temporarily cut off from accessing life-saving resources.

Economy
Floods can affect local economies by disrupting transportation systems needed for people to get to and from work and destroying places of business and means of production. When flooding occurs in more rural areas, livestock and agricultural system will be affected. Crops can be destroyed in the growing season, or prevent from seeding in the off season. Large insurance payouts to residents or business owners who have procured flood insurance might also have an economic impact.

Climate Impacts on Flooding:

Climate change models predict and increase in overall temperature globally for the coming decades, including the BRADD region. With a potential rise of several degrees Fahrenheit, multiple services, systems, and activities face disruption and impact. Temperature increases this small may not seem threatening, but the cumulative impacts will affect weather events, human health, and ecosystem functions, along with economic and social issues related to energy use and cost of living.

Working with  AT&T’s Climate Resilient Communities Program and the  Climate Risk and Resilience (ClimRR) Portal, BRADD identified additional opportunities for hazard mitigation action items associated with climate impacts for flooding in the Barren River Region. To view an interactive report of these findings,   click here.

Simpson County’s vulnerability to flooding is considered Moderate to Moderately High, driven by the county’s topography, expanding development patterns, rural roadway network, and the presence of numerous creek corridors that respond quickly to rainfall. Low-lying areas near Franklin and rural basins along Drakes Creek and its tributaries remain particularly susceptible. Vulnerability is amplified by older subdivisions with limited drainage capacity, areas with shallow or compacted soils, and locations where culverts or small bridges create chokepoints during high-flow events.

Residential exposure includes clusters of single-family homes near creek-adjacent neighborhoods, manufactured homes in drainage-prone areas, and scattered rural homes near low-water crossings. Mobile homes and older housing stock—common in rural areas—are especially at risk due to reduced structural resilience and limited elevation above grade. Agricultural areas, including pastureland, row crops, and livestock operations, face recurrent impacts from saturated soils, field ponding, erosion, and damage to access roads or fencing.

Critical infrastructure also contributes to the county’s vulnerability. Numerous county roads, small bridges, and culverts lie within or adjacent to flood-prone areas and are susceptible to overtopping, washouts, or debris blockages. Utility corridors, including waterlines, sewer systems, and electrical distribution infrastructure, may experience service disruptions when inundation affects access or causes erosion around buried components. Portions of Franklin’s transportation network and stormwater system are also vulnerable during high-intensity rainfall, particularly where capacity is constrained.

Overall, Simpson County’s vulnerability reflects a mix of rural flood exposure, aging drainage infrastructure, and climate-driven increases in heavy rainfall, resulting in continued sensitivity to both flash and riverine flooding across much of the county.

Click the button below to view an interactive map of BRADD Critical Infrastructure in the Floodplain.

Between 2000 and 2020, Simpson County has had 42 flood events.

Simpson County has received FEMA Disaster Declarations as a result of flooding in 2009, 2010, 2015, and 2020.

Overall, Simpson County experiences very high vulnerability to flood events. The risk for Simpson County’s city is analyzed below.

The City of Franklin has had fourteen historic occurrences of flood and flash-flood events since 2000. Its vulnerability is medium.

The extent of a hazardous materials release is characterized by the type of substance, quantity released, state (gas, liquid, solid), dispersion behavior, and weather/terrain conditions. Releases may be constrained and local (e.g. a leaking drum or tank) or large and far-reaching (e.g. vapors spreading over multiple miles, groundwater contamination migrating). Depending on the chemical’s toxicity, volatility, and persistence, an incident could produce acute health effects, long-term environmental harm, or chronic exposure zones. In the BRADD region, credible scenarios include a small spill alongside a highway, a rail car release near populated areas, or a storage tank failure, each producing different spatial footprints and hazard zones.

The BRADD region has a record of hazardous materials incidents, particularly associated with transportation and industrial operations. Kentucky has experienced several costly hazmat transit incidents in recent years. In rail transport, derailments involving chemical cargo have spurred evacuations and environmental response. For example, in 2007, a major derailment in Kentucky released hazardous materials and required area evacuation. Nationally and regionally, chemical spills from industrial plants have caused injury, property damage, and remediation efforts. Some incidents, such as the 1981 Louisville sewer explosions (driven by hexane vapors in sewer lines), illustrate how improper chemical disposal can lead to infrastructure destruction. These past events highlight the potential for both acute and lingering impacts of hazardous material releases.

The probability of a hazardous materials incident in Simpson County is moderate, with most past releases being small and localized due to equipment failure, human error, or roadway accidents. However, the county’s position along major transport corridors—I-65, U.S. 31W, KY 100, and associated freight routes—combined with industrial and logistics facilities in and around Franklin, increases the potential for a more serious event involving hazardous substances. Fuel storage sites, agricultural chemical suppliers, and the possibility of secondary releases triggered by severe storms or flooding contribute additional risk. Overall, hazardous materials planning in Simpson County focuses on mapping fixed facilities and transportation routes and integrating these into probabilistic risk assessments to support emergency response and evacuation planning.

Hazardous materials releases can produce widespread and cascading effects across built, natural, and social environments.

Built Environment:

Buildings are vulnerable to a hazardous materials spill. The combination of fire, water, and chemicals could result in an explosion that is likely to damage both the buildings storing hazardous materials and the area surrounding the storage area. Proper storage and handling of these chemicals is critical in decreasing built environment vulnerability. A hazardous materials spill anywhere along the Barren River Region’s transportation network will have an immediate impact on travel time and delays. Municipal water systems and storm water drainage systems are vulnerable to a toxic spill. Chemicals that reach the water system could limit the supply of potable water.

Natural Environment:

Factors contributing to the vulnerability of natural systems are the type of chemical spilled the physical state of the chemical, the amount released, and the location of the incident. Vulnerability of the natural environment to hazardous materials events is higher for species and ecosystems in the immediate vicinity of the event, and moderate for those located downstream.

Social Environment:

People
A hazardous material spill could isolate parts of the region from critical facilities. Mobility impaired persons would be vulnerable to a spill or vapor release that requires immediate evacuation. Similarly, people with hearing or sight impairments may require special notification if the standard announcements are not available. Children with respiratory problems are at a higher risk of vulnerability to chemical vapors. Elderly with mobility impairments or compromised immune systems may suffer greater injuries in the case of a hazardous material release. Low-income residents are more likely to reside in closer proximity to hazardous facilities than wealthier counterparts. If displaced by a hazardous materials spill, limited income residents may face additional hardship.
Economy
Cost of replacing damaged property; a spill at a fixed facility , may cause temporary or permanent closure

Climate Impacts on Hazardous Material Spills:

As climate change impacts other sectors and hazards, such as increased severe storms, heat waves, and flooding, there is a chance that hazardous materials will become more unstable due to potential disasters. During flood events, materials may be spilled or introduced into waterways and severe wind or winter storms may cause the spillage of materials during vehicular accidents or building and infrastructure damage. Sinkhole openings may introduce hazardous materials into the groundwater system. An increased use in hazardous materials may also occur as part of other mitigation and adaptation activities, such as development, and may increase the exposure for these impacts to occur.

This hazard presents a moderate risk to Allen County, due to the large amount of manufacturing and development, sensitive groundwater and surface water resources, and the probability for severe events to occur.

Potential impacts include:

• increase spillage of hazardous materials
• more frequent transport and storage of hazardous materials
• threat to environmental and human health during a spill or contamination event
• threat from exposure during increased use to mitigate other impacts
• threat to infrastructure during a spill or other event
• economic loss from cleanup or health impacts

Vulnerability to hazardous materials incidents in Simpson County spans the built, natural, and social environments. Industrial facilities, fuel storage sites, freight corridors along I-65, U.S. 31W, and local rail routes, and agricultural chemical suppliers located near residential and commercial areas are particularly exposed to risk. The county’s ecological systems—including Drakes Creek, its tributaries, and sensitive karst aquifers—are highly susceptible to contamination from chemical spills or releases. Social vulnerability is elevated in areas with limited emergency response capacity, older housing stock, or lower socioeconomic conditions, where residents may face greater health risks and slower recovery following a hazardous materials incident. Understanding these vulnerabilities helps guide land-use decisions, buffer zones, facility siting, monitoring strategies, and public awareness initiatives aimed at reducing risk.

Simpson County’s vulnerability is elevated due to Interstate 65, the presence of industrial parks, and proximity to the Nashville metropolitan freight corridor. The transport of petroleum products, solvents, and manufacturing chemicals through Franklin and along I-65 poses both traffic-related and fixed-site risks. Industrial and distribution facilities increase exposure potential, though robust local coordination and access to mutual aid enhance preparedness.

Emerging infectious disease (EID) outbreaks can range from small, localized clusters to countywide or multi-county epidemics, depending on the pathogen’s transmissibility (e.g., R₀), incubation/asymptomatic period, mode of transmission (airborne, droplet, contact, vector, food/water), clinical severity, and availability of countermeasures (vaccines/antivirals). Severity is often expressed through combinations of attack rate, hospitalization and ICU utilization, case fatality ratio, and the duration/number of waves, which together determine stress on healthcare, schools, businesses, and critical services. FEMA’s planning policy expects plans to describe a hazard’s type, location, and extent and to include previous occurrences and the probability of future events; for EIDs, this typically means using qualitative scales (e.g., low/moderate/high) informed by public-health surveillance and scenario analysis.

Simpson County’s EID context mirrors the region and state: 2009 H1N1 influenza produced widespread illness and vaccination campaigns; COVID-19 (2020–2022) caused repeated surges, remote learning periods, healthcare strain, and workforce disruptions across south-central Kentucky, with lingering recovery needs. At smaller scales, seasonal influenza, gastrointestinal outbreaks, hepatitis A, and tick-borne illnesses recur and periodically challenge local public-health capacity. For hazard-mitigation purposes, these events document that infectious hazards are recurring and can escalate quickly, even when initial clusters are small.

EIDs are non-spatial at the county scale: exposure is countywide and follows human activity patterns. Transmission risk is elevated where people congregate or where mobility is high, including schools and childcare sites, long-term care and healthcare facilities, workplaces and distribution/logistics hubs, correctional settings, places of worship, and events/venues. Vulnerability may be higher for neighborhoods with older adults, people with chronic conditions, uninsured/under-insured residents, or limited access to primary care, and for settings with shared housing or limited ventilation.

The probability of emerging infectious disease (EID) activity in Simpson County is ongoing and recurrent, with severity varying by pathogen. Routine outbreaks—such as respiratory viruses, gastrointestinal illnesses, and periodically emerging novel strains—should be expected annually to every few years, with countywide transmission most likely during the school year, peak respiratory seasons, and periods of increased travel or workforce mobility. The likelihood of a significant EID event capable of stressing healthcare systems or disrupting schools and workplaces over a 5–10-year planning horizon is moderate, driven by Simpson County’s location along major travel corridors (I-65 and U.S. 31W), the presence of congregate settings including schools, long-term care facilities, and manufacturing workplaces, and regular movement of residents to and from surrounding counties and metropolitan regions. Probability increases in periods of low vaccination uptake, limited access to primary care, delayed diagnosis, or insufficient public-health staffing, and decreases when strong surveillance, rapid testing, vaccination campaigns, and effective risk communication are in place. Climate-related stressors—such as hotter summers, poor air-quality episodes, and shifting vector ranges—may indirectly increase disease transmission by encouraging indoor crowding or extending vector seasons, but the dominant drivers for EIDs in Simpson County remain human mixing patterns, healthcare capacity, and timely public-health interventions.

Impact

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) can trigger cascading consequences across systems even when case counts are moderate, because illness, isolation, and precautionary measures disrupt people, places, and services simultaneously. Direct health impacts (morbidity, mortality) are compounded by workforce absenteeism, supply-chain delays, and surges on healthcare and public health operations. The breadth of consequences depends on the pathogen’s transmissibility and severity, the speed of detection, and the availability of countermeasures (testing, treatment, vaccination) and risk communication.

Built Environment

EIDs strain the built environment indirectly by stressing the facilities and systems people operate. Hospitals, clinics, EMS stations, and pharmacies can exceed functional capacity, requiring surge spaces and changes to ventilation and patient flow. Public buildings, schools, and workplaces may need operational adjustments (enhanced cleaning, spacing, HVAC improvements), and staffing gaps can delay maintenance for roads, utilities, and public facilities. Supply-chain disruptions can slow construction projects and limit availability of critical parts for water/wastewater, transportation, and communications systems.

Natural Environment

While EIDs primarily affect human systems, response activities can influence the environment. Increased use of medical disposables and disinfectants elevates medical and solid-waste volumes, requiring proper handling to avoid secondary environmental impacts. Wastewater surveillance—often deployed for EIDs—integrates environmental sampling into public health practice and necessitates careful lab and sampling protocols. Changes in human activity (e.g., reduced travel) may temporarily alter local air quality and traffic-related emissions.

Social Environment

EIDs most strongly affect the social environment. Illness, isolation, and caregiving responsibilities reduce workforce availability, interrupt schooling and childcare, and strain household finances—especially for hourly and small-business workers. Behavioral-health needs rise due to stress, grief, and prolonged uncertainty, while misinformation can erode trust and complicate protective actions. Impacts are disproportionate for older adults, people with chronic conditions, low-income and uninsured residents, and those in congregate or high-exposure settings (schools, long-term care, logistics and retail).

Climate Impacts on EID

Climate does not directly “cause” EIDs, but it can shape risk conditions. Hotter summers and poor air-quality days can drive indoor crowding, increasing transmission opportunities for respiratory pathogens. Shifts in precipitation and temperature can extend vector seasons (ticks, mosquitoes) and alter wildlife–human interfaces that enable zoonotic spillover. Climate stress on infrastructure and households (e.g., heat waves, severe storms) can also complicate access to care and continuity of operations, amplifying the consequences of an outbreak when it coincides with other hazards.

Simpson County’s vulnerability to emerging infectious diseases is shaped by its population distribution, workforce patterns, healthcare capacity, and social determinants of health. Higher-risk settings include schools, childcare centers, long-term care facilities, manufacturing plants, and group-living environments, where close contact accelerates transmission. Vulnerability is elevated among residents with limited access to primary care, individuals with chronic health conditions, and households facing socioeconomic challenges that reduce the ability to isolate, miss work, or seek timely treatment. Rural areas with limited broadband access may also face barriers to telehealth during widespread outbreaks. The county’s role as a regional employment hub—with significant daily movement of workers along I-65 and U.S. 31W—creates additional exposure pathways for introduction and spread of new pathogens. While strong public-health coordination, school-based prevention, and vaccination campaigns reduce overall risk, structural factors such as aging infrastructure in congregate settings, workforce density in industrial facilities, and gaps in healthcare access contribute to moderate vulnerability during significant EID events.

Simpson County faces intermediate vulnerability due to its proximity to larger population centers and connectivity via Interstate 65. Commercial, industrial, and commuter movement through the county raises the chance of importation and spread. The presence of institutional settings (schools, workplaces) means that early detection and mitigation protocols are especially important to prevent clusters from growing.

The Kentucky Geological Survey (KGS) identifies two ways in which sinkholes collapse:

1. The roof of a cave becomes too thin to support the weight of the material above it and collapses.
2. Limestone bedrock develops a fracture that is enlarged by water dissolving the limestone. As the limestone erodes, the soil above it slowly falls into the developing sinkhole. This type of cover-collapse is typically very slow and occurs over a long period of time. Only in rare instances will limestone bedrock dissolution cause a rapid collapse.

Karst-related hazards happen quickly and without warning. However, scientists have mapped a large portion of the BRADD region to determine where these hazards are most likely to occur. A snapshot of this mapping is located above. to view a fully interactive map and explore sinkholes by jurisdiction, click on the link below.

The probability of karst-related hazards—primarily sinkholes, subsidence, and soil piping—is high in Simpson County due to its location within the Pennyroyal Plateau, a region characterized by extensive limestone bedrock and active karst processes. New sinkhole formation or reactivation of existing features is likely to occur annually, particularly following periods of heavy rainfall, rapid infiltration, or prolonged wet conditions that accelerate dissolution of underlying limestone. Human activities such as construction, roadwork, excavation, changes in drainage patterns, or concentrated stormwater flows can also trigger new collapses or worsen existing subsurface voids. Areas around Franklin, Alvaton Road, Gold City, and along major transportation corridors such as I-65, where development interfaces with karst-prone terrain, show a recurring pattern of sinkhole formation. Climate projections indicating more frequent high-intensity rainfall events further increase the likelihood of future karst incidents over the planning horizon.

Damages to human-made structures caused by sinkholes can range from minor to severe. Office buildings, homes, roads, utility lines, and other critical facility or structure located above a sinkhole could be affected. If the sinkhole is large enough, it can affect an entire building or home when it collapses. Minor sinkholes will cause brief damage and are usually fixed with simple excavation techniques.

Drainage water runs into sinkholes during heavy rains and will affect any structures built within the flood plain of a given sinkhole. Present sinkhole vulnerability to flooding can alter the urbanization plans and other forms of expansion and commercialization.

Transportation systems are greatly affected by sinkholes since much of the BRADD’s roadways and highways are constructed over sinkholes. When these sinkholes collapse they not only destroy the road itself but the ground beneath it. Intricate and expensive excavating techniques must be utilized to repair a roadway and its ground foundation affected by a sinkhole.

Because of the vast amount of sinkholes in the BRADD region, there is an extensive groundwater network that supplies public water systems serving many residents. Groundwater essentially originates from rain or other forms of precipitation that soak into the ground and move forward to fill cracks and other openings in soils and rocks. This permeable layer is known as an aquifer. Groundwater is also an abundance natural resource making up 9% of all the freshwater in the world. This water is a direct main source for usable, fresh water for over a million residents in Kentucky, including the Barren River region. For surface streams, groundwater provides as a base flow when it is not raining. Groundwater, especially in a karst environment, is highly susceptible to contamination. Impure rain water, septic tank effluent, agricultural pesticides, and animal waste all contribute to the contamination of groundwater through seepage and runoff. However, contamination problems are aggravated in karst areas by the practice of the disposal of solid and liquid wastes into sinkholes where they may be washed directly into the aquifer.

The natural environment is very vulnerable to the effects of sinkholes. Carbonic rock such as limestone is eroded away by acidic rain and water runoff. This carves out subterranean passages throughout the underside of the landscape. When the ground level clay or cohesive rock materials cannot support the weight, they cave in and fall into these passages. The result is a karst landscape. Sinkhole collapse greatly damages and alters the natural environment. Groundwater contamination can kill cave aquatic life.

People – Anyone living or working near sinkholes or within the drainage basin of a sinkhole is vulnerable. Karst can lead to radon-related health concerns, sinkhole collapse can lead to loss of life and property, groundwater contamination may lead to build-up of dangerous gases in homes and businesses, and flooding may cause drowning.

Economy – Cost of making repairs to property, repairing roads, preparing special foundations for large buildings, an extending public water lines to replace polluted groundwater.

There is an expected impact on sinkholes due to climate change. Increasing temperatures will likely affect hydrologic processes, enhance dissolution of limestone, and promote soil failure. It was found in one study that with every increase of 0.2ºF in global temperature, there is a 1-3% increase in the number of sinkholes, thus, there is a high possibility that an increase in sinkholes is due to climate change. With an increase in intense rain events, there could also be an increase in sinkholes opening due to runoff and undermining of soil.

Potential impacts include:

• Damage to roads and property
• Displacement of residents
• Transportation issues (traffic, blocked routes)
• Economic loss due to changes in development patterns or sinkholes/flooding

Working with AT&T’s Climate Resilient Communities Program and the Climate Risk and Resilience (ClimRR) Portal, BRADD identified additional opportunities for hazard mitigation action items associated with climate impacts for Karst Landscapes in the Barren River Region. To view an interactive report of these findings, click here.

Simpson County’s vulnerability to karst hazards is moderate to high, reflecting the extent of karst terrain, growing development pressure, and the presence of vulnerable structures and infrastructure. Residential neighborhoods, commercial properties, and industrial sites in and around Franklin face elevated risk where foundations, utilities, or roadbeds intersect subsurface voids. Older subdivisions with limited stormwater controls and areas where drainage has been altered by development are particularly susceptible to sudden collapse or gradual settlement. The county’s transportation network—including local roads, culverts, and segments of I-65 and U.S. 31W—may experience destabilization, cracking, or failure when sinkholes undermine pavement or drainage structures.

Rural areas with agricultural fields, barns, and farm access roads are also exposed, especially where stormwater flows concentrate in depressions or swallets. Karst systems pose added environmental vulnerability: contaminants can rapidly enter Drakes Creek, karst springs, and groundwater aquifers, impacting drinking water supplies and ecosystems. Social vulnerability is heightened in low-income or older housing areas where residents may lack resources for remediation, repairs, or relocation. Overall, the county’s combination of active karst topography, expanding development, and climate-driven increases in heavy rainfall results in persistent and locally significant vulnerability to karst-related hazards.

Based on KGS’s data there are 4,758 Topo and LiDAR-identified sinkholes within Simpson County. In the unincorporated areas of the county (only county land), there are 4,472 topo and LiDAR-identified sinkholes.

The entirety of Simpson County has very high karst/sinkhole potential.

Due to these factors, Simpson County experiences high vulnerability to sinkholes. The risk for Simpson County’s city is analyzed below.

Franklin has 286 identified sinkholes. Its vulnerability is high.

Landslide Susceptibility

During Kentucky’s 2018 Hazard Mitigation Plan update, Kentucky Geological Survey (KGS) developed a landslide susceptibility map for the state in order to show which areas have greater landslide risk due to slope and geology. Using the KGS data, BRADD staff created a landslide susceptibility dashboard for our 10-counties. Click on the button below to access the BRADD Landslide Dashboard.

The probability of landslides in Simpson County is low to low-moderate, reflecting the county’s relatively gentle topography and predominance of broad agricultural basins. Most of the county lacks the steep slopes typically associated with major landslide activity. However, localized slope failures, embankment slumps, and soil movement can and do occur, particularly along roadway cut slopes, streambanks, and small bluff edges in the southern and eastern portions of the county. Landslide probability increases during periods of prolonged saturation, intense rainfall, or rapid freeze–thaw cycles, which weaken soil cohesion and increase the chance of small-scale failures. Climate projections indicating more frequent heavy rainfall events may marginally elevate future landslide probability, particularly along rural road embankments, drainage ditches, and areas where construction or grading alters natural slope stability. Overall, landslides are expected to remain infrequent but possible, with incidents typically limited in scale.

Simpson County: 0 events/30 years = 0 landslide events per year or 0% chance of a landslide event happening annually.

During Kentucky’s 2018 Hazard Mitigation Plan update, Kentucky Geological Survey (KGS) developed a landslide susceptibility map for the state in order to show which areas have greater landslide risk due to slope and geology. Using the KGS data, BRADD staff created a landslide susceptibility dashboard for our 10-counties. Click on the button below to access the BRADD Landslide Dashboard.

Human-made structures are directly affected by landslides. Any structures such as buildings, roads, bridges, street lighting, and power lines can be completely destroyed if in the direct life of the landslide.

Any roads or other transportation systems that are in the path of a landslide will be directly affected. Roads can either be covered by the debris or wiped completely away. Power lines and telecommunication networks would also be directly affected. Along with roads, telephone poles and towers can be damaged and ruined during the event of a landslide.

A landslide, itself, involves natural materials. The drastic displacement of earth, trees, and debris can cause persistent problems such as continued erosion. Landslides can carry contaminated materials into streams and other water bodies, directly affect wildlife by destroying wildlife habitats such as wooded areas, streams, and ponds. This can affect the ecosystem and all living things within it.

People

The vulnerability of a landslide do not affect one section of the population more than another. Anyone living in an area at high risk of a landslide will be affected. Landslides can occur spontaneously and randomly.

Economy

Economic costs associated with landslides are due to replacement costs for any property damaged. If transportation and telecommunication networks are damaged or destroyed, it may lead to business closures for a brief time.

There is limited evidence connecting climate change to an increase in landslides; however, it is theorized that more intense rainfall, rain-on-snow events, mean warming, permafrost thaw, glacier retreat, and coastal erosion can lead to rockface instability and decreased slope (IPCC 2022). There has been an increase in landslides in certain areas of the world and it is expected that there will be an increase in frequency in northwestern North America. Studies make these projections based on increasing rainfall intensity and frequency, so it is possible that the BRADD region may see minor impacts from these in the form of slumps and low-grade slope failure. Kentucky’s landslides mostly occur in Eastern Kentucky, so the BRADD region should not be significantly impacted.

• Potential impacts include:
• Infrastructure damage
• Ecosystem damage
• Loss of life
• Economic loss

Simpson County’s vulnerability to landslides is generally low, with impacts typically confined to small areas where slopes, erosive soils, or human modifications interact. Vulnerability is highest along roadway cut slopes, streambank edges, and steepened embankments created through construction, agricultural grading, or drainage improvements. Local roads in hilly sections near the Tennessee border and along creek valleys may experience shoulder failures, ditch erosion, or minor slumps that obstruct traffic or require repairs. Although the built environment faces limited widespread risk, isolated incidents can damage road surfaces, underground utilities, culverts, and fencing, particularly after major storms.

Rural homes located on or near terrace edges or artificially filled slopes may experience localized settling or foundation stress. Agricultural areas can be affected when saturated soils lead to field slumping or erosion along creek-adjacent tracts. Natural environment impacts include sedimentation of Drakes Creek and its tributaries, temporary water-quality degradation, and habitat disturbance. Social impacts are generally minimal, though residents in low-income or older housing may face challenges addressing slope or drainage issues without financial assistance. Overall, vulnerability remains low, with localized pockets of low-moderate vulnerability where terrain, drainage, and infrastructure intersect.

Since 1991, KGS has recorded 0 landslides in Simpson County. This averages to 0 landslide events per year.

Because of these factors, Simpson County experiences low vulnerability to landslide events. The risk for Simpson County’s city is analyzed below.

The City of Franklin has had no historic occurrences of landslide events. Its vulnerability is low.

In addition to the current COVID-19 Pandemic, the Kentucky Cabinet for Health and Family Service explains that there have been four other pandemics in United States in the last 100 years: the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu, the 1956-1958 Asian Flu, the 1968-1969 Hong Kong Flu, and the 2009 Novel H1N1. Combined, these four pandemics have claimed thousands of lives in the Commonwealth, hundreds of thousands in the United States, and millions worldwide.

Spanish Influenza 1918-1919: Historical examples of pandemic demonstrate that while a pandemic may be devastating to a community from a life safety and economic standpoint, the threat was often downplayed and ignored. The 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic was initially disregarded as having a significant impact because influenza was thought of as a minor illness that incapacitated the sick for a relatively short period of time before they eventually recovered. However, as the Spanish Influenza rose to pandemic level, it redefined the public’s perception of the virus. A historian at the time noted that at a military encampment in southern Ohio, soldiers would arrive healthy and within twenty-four hours would be dead from the flu. The virus spread globally along trade routes and shipping lines. Residents of North American, Europe, Africa, Asia, Brazil, and the South Pacific were particularly affected by the illness, which in-total infected 1/5 of the global population. In contrast to the majority of flu strains, the Spanish Influenza primarily affected young, healthy adults between the ages of 20 and 40. The mortality rate was 2.5%, an astounding figure given that flu outbreaks typically have a rate of 0.1%. By the end of the pandemic, the virus had claimed 20 million lives worldwide and 675,000 in the United States.

Asian Flu 1956-1958: The New York Times first broke the news of the Asian Flu in 1957 when they published a story of a flu virus that had infected 250,000 in Hong Kong. Months after this story was published, the disease had spread to the United States. Unlike Spanish Influenza, the Asian Flu was most commonly reported in the vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and individuals with heart and lung conditions. People with rheumatic heart disease and women in their third trimester of pregnancy were uniquely impacted. Infection for this pandemic came in two parts—the first in the late summer of 1957 and the second in the winter of 1958. The death toll for the Asian Flu widely varies, with sources reporting between 1 and 4 million deaths worldwide and approximately 69,800 in the United States.

Hong Kong Flu 1968-1969: The Hong Kong Flu is the mildest of all pandemics of the 20th century, a fact that is often explained by its similarity to the Asian Flu which increased immunity to the 1968 strain and the fact that it hit the United States in late December when most students were on break, reducing opportunities for spread. As with the Asian Flu, the vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly, were most at risk. By the end of the pandemic in 1969, it had claimed 33,800 lives in the US.

H1N1 2009-2010: This pandemic first appeared in the United States in the spring of 2009. By June, H1N1 had infected 18,000 people in the US. The virus primarily affected the populations most typically affected by the flu: children and infants, pregnant women, the elderly, and individuals with prior-existing health conditions. Due to advancements in medical research and technology, the overall impact of the pandemic was curbed. A vaccine was introduced in the fall of 2009. Approximately 80 million people were vaccinated worldwide. By the time the pandemic was declared over in the spring of 2010, between 43-89 million people had been infected and between 8,870 and 18,300 people had died.

COVID-19 2020-2023: The most recent pandemic first appeared in the United States in the spring of 2020. By July 2020, COVID-19 had infected over 200,000 people worldwide. The virus initially primarily affected the elderly, and individuals with prior-existing health conditions, however as spread increased so did the populations at-risk. A vaccine was approved for use against the virus in December of 2020, and in May of 2023 the World Health Organization declared an end to the public health emergency of international concern.

The probability of another pandemic is moderate to high due to global mobility, zoonotic spillover risk, and pathogen evolution, even as surveillance and vaccination moderate some risk. For Allen County, this translates to ongoing planning assumptions and readiness for periodic surges.

Infrastructure could be impacted due to lack of repair and upkeep if pandemic is extensive and lengthy; Utility lines and repairs would take longer to repair due to manpower lost.

Potential increased loss of agricultural assets (crop & livestock) due to loss of manpower to harvest crop; fewer livestock and crop markets due to restriction of crowds which prevent spread of pandemic disease;

People

Farmers-pandemic could affect crop production & yield since they could not seed or harvest; General populace -would be impacted due to both physical and psychological impacts of disease; Possible school closures would aid in disrupting spread of disease; Vulnerable populations may experience more impacts due to synergistic effects of pandemic symptomology. Additionally, the county could expirence increased emergency clinical care visits, more hospitalization (upwards 1-4% symptomatic patients will require hospitalization) leading to severe and overwhelming impacts on healthcare and public health system; workforce absences leading to minimal patient care

Economy

Pandemic can cause business slowdown or even recession; decreased food and merchandise shipped throughout area would increase cost; loss of buyers and sellers due to potential risk of contagion. Increased staff absences (upwards 50% workforce may require time off over entire period of pandemic).

The 2016 Global Risk Report published by the World Economic Forum has proposed that climate change could be a causal factor in future pandemics. This finding is further explored in a 2016 report produced by Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, Pandemics in a Changing Climate – Evolving Risk & Global Response. The report explains that vector ecology indicates the potential for climate change to create the conditions for future pandemics. Changes in temperature, precipitation, and pH levels due to climate change will impact the quantity and quality of ecological services, such as food, water, and soil. Ecosystem shifts can impact the migratory patterns, habitats, population, and survivability of certain animal and insect populations. Such changes may increase human-animal or human-insect contact, increasing the likelihood of transmission. For example, as hot summer months extend tick and mosquito populations, both culprits in transmission of epidemic-causing viruses, can survive longer and have more opportunities to infect humans. Climate change may have more direct impacts on humans by making certain populations, particularly in developing countries, more susceptible to illness by creating food and water security crises.

Simpson County’s vulnerability to pandemics is moderate, shaped by its population distribution, employment patterns, healthcare access, and prevalence of congregate settings. Higher-risk environments—including schools, long-term care facilities, manufacturing plants, and childcare centers—can facilitate rapid transmission, particularly during periods of high workforce density or limited ability to socially distance. Vulnerability is elevated among residents with chronic health conditions, limited access to primary care or insurance, lower socioeconomic status, or barriers to taking time off work, all of which can delay treatment and increase community spread. Portions of the county’s rural population may experience challenges accessing testing, telehealth, or timely medical services, especially where broadband coverage is limited. The county’s connection to regional employment and travel corridors, particularly I-65 and U.S. 31W, increases the likelihood of rapid disease introduction from surrounding metropolitan areas. While proactive public-health communication, strong school-based prevention measures, and vaccination campaigns reduce overall risk, structural and socioeconomic factors contribute to persistent vulnerability during large-scale pandemic events.

Simpson County’s proximity to larger traffic corridors (I-65) and commuting flows increases vulnerability. The county may receive spillover of cases from more populous areas, and local medical infrastructure may be taxed. Existing regional health networks will play a critical role in response support.

Location: Severe storms are treated as a region-wide, non-spatial hazard; no jurisdiction is inherently more likely to be struck, though more built-up places see greater damages. For Allen, that means exposure countywide, with higher potential property impacts in and around Scottsville.

Extent: The profile evaluates hail, wind, and lightning (tornadoes are handled separately). Severe thunderstorms are defined by hail ≥ ¾”, wind gusts ≥ 50 knots (57.5 mph), or a tornado. Straight-line winds in extreme cases can exceed 100 mph.

Past events / occurrence: Allen County has recorded 105 severe storm events over 21 years (≈ 5 events annually).

The BRADD region’s probability of severe storms is rated High  based on annual frequency; this regional rating applies to Simpson County as well.

Vehicles, roofs, windows, utilities, roads, and culverts are vulnerable; straight-line winds  can down trees/power lines, causing outages from hours to weeks.

Increased stormwater runoff, localized flooding, tree loss, and impacts to fish/wildlife;  crop and livestock damage are common consequences.

Outdoor workers and people without timely warnings (boaters, campers, farmers, construction crews) are especially susceptible; damages can trigger brief  business closures where transport/telecom are affected.

Research indicates climate change is increasing the number of days with sufficient CAPE and vertical wind shear to produce severe storms (hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes), implying more frequent environments favorable to severe weather in the region.

Simpson County’s vulnerability to severe storms is moderate to high, reflecting its exposure to countywide wind, hail, lightning, and localized flooding hazards. The built environment is especially at risk in Franklin and surrounding residential subdivisions, where older homes, manufactured housing, and aging commercial structures may be more susceptible to roof damage, siding loss, and broken windows during high-wind or hail events. Rural areas face additional vulnerability due to the presence of farm structures, barns, grain facilities, and equipment that are often lightly constructed and exposed in open terrain. Critical infrastructure—including electrical distribution lines, communications towers, water and wastewater systems, and major road corridors such as I-65 and U.S. 31W—is also highly sensitive to wind and lightning, leading to power outages, service disruptions, and blocked roadways during major storm events.

Agricultural operations are particularly vulnerable to crop and pasture damage, soil erosion from heavy rainfall, and loss of fencing or livestock shelters. Natural environments, including riparian corridors along Drakes Creek, may experience erosion, downed trees, and sedimentation during intense storm events. Social vulnerability is elevated among households with limited financial resources, residents in mobile homes, and populations dependent on electricity for medical needs, who may experience longer recovery times following outages or structural damage. Overall, the combination of diverse building types, extensive rural infrastructure, and climate-driven increases in high-intensity storms contributes to persistent and widespread vulnerability to severe storms across Simpson County.

Simpson County has experienced 92 severe storm events/21 years = 4.38 wind events annually.

Because of these factors, Simpson County experiences high vulnerability to severe storms. Franklin reflects Simpson County’s overall history of winter storms, and therefore experiences high vulnerability as well.

Because terrorism is intentional and adversarial, traditional frequency-based risk assessments are not sufficient for evaluating potential impacts. Unlike natural hazards, terrorism cannot be forecasted or modeled using historical trends alone. Effective assessment must incorporate intelligence inputs, threat actor capabilities, and scenario planning to understand possible modes of attack and associated vulnerabilities.

At present, there is limited differentiation between types of terrorism that may affect the region. Distinguishing between domestic and international threats, as well as between physical, cyber, or hybrid forms of terrorism, can help clarify risk pathways and improve mitigation strategies. The region’s profile would also benefit from identifying and assessing critical infrastructure and “soft targets” that may be more susceptible to intentional acts, such as public gathering venues, utilities, schools, and government facilities.

Because terrorism is intentional and adversarial, you cannot rely solely on historical frequency to derive probability. Many risk models for terrorism must incorporate intelligence assessments, threat actor capabilities, and scenario planning.

While the page references terrorism conceptually, it does not currently include coordination protocols with law enforcement, fusion centers, or homeland security partners that monitor and share threat intelligence. Strengthening interagency coordination—particularly with local emergency management, police, and state agencies—would provide a more credible understanding of regional exposure and response capability.

Cascading and secondary effects of terrorism events, such as public panic, misinformation, economic disruption, and strain on emergency and health systems, are also important considerations. The social and psychological impacts of terrorism can be significant even when physical damage is limited, underscoring the need to plan for behavioral health support and long-term community recovery.

Additionally, the region’s profile does not currently evaluate local preparedness measures such as continuity of operations plans (COOP), security assessments, or mass-casualty response capacity, which are key indicators of resilience. Future updates should also consider emerging risks, such as cyber-physical attacks on utilities and critical networks, and how these may intersect with traditional forms of terrorism.

Finally, it is important to acknowledge both the limitations and sensitivities of terrorism-related data. Some information—such as specific target locations or threat intelligence—cannot be publicly shared due to security concerns. Nonetheless, transparency in describing the general methods, assumptions, and partnerships used to assess terrorism risk would enhance credibility while maintaining confidentiality.

Terrorism can destroy or damage buildings and critical lifelines (power, water/wastewater, transportation, and communications), with impacts dictated by the attack method and proximity to critical nodes.

Acts such as agro-terrorism or hazardous-materials release can contaminate soil, water, or wildlife habitat, and BRADD explicitly notes potential destruction of natural resources under certain attack types.

Intentional acts are designed to cause casualties, widespread fear, and economic disruption; BRADD highlights life-safety risks, psychological effects, and local economic shocks due to reduced participation and interrupted operations.

Climate stressors (e.g., pressures on marginalized populations, aging infrastructure, and periods of civil unrest) may elevate susceptibility to terrorism-related activities, including threats to infrastructure, property, and cyber/economic systems, even though overall climate-driven terrorism risk for the region remains low. 

Simpson County’s vulnerability to terrorism is generally low, but certain characteristics create localized areas of elevated concern. Key potential targets include critical infrastructure such as electrical substations, water and wastewater facilities, communications towers, and transportation assets along I-65, U.S. 31W, and major freight routes, which carry substantial commercial and interstate traffic. Industrial and logistics facilities in the Franklin area, as well as schools, government buildings, and large public gathering sites, represent additional soft targets due to their accessibility and concentration of people. The county’s proximity to major metropolitan regions and its role as a regional transportation and manufacturing hub increase the potential for incidental or opportunistic threats, including cyberattacks on critical systems or acts of vandalism that disrupt services. Social vulnerability may be higher for populations dependent on essential utilities, healthcare services, or limited communication resources during a crisis. While no known elevated threats exist, maintaining situational awareness, continuity planning, and coordination with regional and federal partners helps mitigate Simpson County’s overall terrorism vulnerability.

Simpson County’s vulnerability to terrorism is moderate relative to its size, primarily due to its location along Interstate 65 and proximity to the Nashville metropolitan area. The City of Franklin contains several critical facilities, including schools, utilities, and regional distribution centers. The county’s industrial and logistics operations may present potential exposure to intentional disruptions. Ongoing coordination with transportation and emergency partners supports resilience, but continuous vigilance and preparedness planning remain essential.

Tornado severity in Simpson County can range from brief, weak EF-0/EF-1 touchdowns to rare, high-end EF-3+ events capable of destroying well-built structures; the EF categories and related wind speeds set the bounds for plausible damage.

From 2000–2025, Simpson County experienced 8 tornadoes (≈ 32% chance of at least one tornado in a given year). Since 1950, tornadoes that touched down in the county have caused 13 injuries and 1 death. Regional context includes the December 10–11, 2021 outbreak, with multiple long-track and high-end events affecting neighboring counties.

Tornado exposure is countywide and non-spatial at planning scale; consequences concentrate where people and assets are located (e.g., Scottsville, major corridors, and higher-occupancy or vulnerable housing areas such as mobile homes).

BRADD rates overall regional probability for tornadoes as high, based on historical frequency, wind-zone classification, and FEMA definitions. Simpson County’s recent history (8 events/25 years) supports an ongoing, recurring likelihood at the county scale.

Tornadoes can damage or destroy homes and businesses, topple transmission and distribution lines, block roads and bridges with debris, and interrupt power, communications, and water/wastewater services.

Tornadoes can fell trees, damage crops and farm structures, degrade habitats, and increase fire risk where dead or downed timber is not removed.

Tornadoes can cause deaths and injuries, trigger temporary but significant economic disruption, and reduce local revenue and productivity during recovery.

While attribution is complex at tornado scale, research indicates fewer “one-tornado” days and more multi-tornado cluster days, linked to increases in days with high CAPE and sufficient vertical wind shear; this implies more days conducive to severe storms—a planning consideration for warning, sheltering, and surge response.

Simpson County’s tornado vulnerability is assessed as moderate. Contributing factors include the historical event rate, documented casualties since 1950, and does not contain any census tracts where ≥25% of housing units are mobile homes, which are more susceptible to wind damage and offer limited sheltering. Franklin reflects the county’s overall pattern.

Between 2000 and 2025, Simpson County has experienced 8 tornadoes/25years =32% chance of a tornado happening in a given year.

Since 1950, tornadoes that touched down in Simpson County have caused 13 injuries and 1 death.

Simpson County does not contain any census tracts wherein at least 25% of all housing units are mobile homes.

Because of these factors, Simpson County experiences moderate vulnerability to tornadoes. Franklin reflects Simpson County’s overall history of tornado events, and therefore experiences moderate vulnerability as well.

Extent is characterized by the number and severity of winter storm, heavy snow, and ice storm events (including federally declared disasters). The BRADD region recorded multiple FEMA winter-storm disaster declarations between 2000 and 2020 and 66 reportable winter storm events in that period.

From 2000–2025, Simpson County experienced 19 severe winter storms.

Exposure is countywide (non-spatial at the planning scale), with impacts most evident where people, infrastructure, and travel corridors concentrate (e.g., Franklin and major roads)

Regionally, BRADD rates future winter-storm probability as moderate. Simpson County’s observed history (19 events over 2000–2025) supports a similar, recurring likelihood at the county scale, with year-to-year variability driven by storm track and ice versus snow dominance.

Winter storms can damage roofs under snow load, break limbs that fall onto buildings and vehicles, down power lines, and block roads and bridges with snow/ice and debris; even modest icing can disrupt utilities and emergency response.

Extended snow/ice cover can alter habitats and timing of species behavior; out-of-season events can injure or kill vegetation and damage crops and trees.

Hazardous travel, power outages, and isolation elevate risks for households—especially older adults or people with medical needs—while business closures and school disruptions impose community-wide costs.

Changing winter characteristics: warmer winters overall, fewer heavy snowmelt events, more precipitation falling as rain/ice in the Southeast, a lengthening freeze-free season, and related economic and infrastructure stresses—factors that may shift Allen County’s winter risk mix toward icing events and infrastructure sensitivity even as extreme cold snaps still occur.

Allen County’s vulnerability is assessed as moderate for winter storms, with Scottsville reflecting the county pattern. Vulnerability is highest for overhead electric distribution, trees near structures and lines, older or poorly insulated housing, road segments prone to icing, and residents who rely on electrically powered medical devices or who may be isolated during outages.

The table below displays ice storm, winter storms, and heavy snow events that were reported to NOAA and NWS between 2000 and 2020. While not each of these events received a FEMA declaration, each showed clear characteristics of a severe winter storm.

Between 2000 and 2020, NOAA and NWS reported 16 severe winter storms in Simpson County.

On average, Simpson County has experienced 6 winter storm events/21 years. This equates to a 0.29% chance of a winter storm event in Simpson County annually.

In January of 2016, 1 foot of snow accumulated across Simpson County.

Because of these factors, Simpson County experiences moderate vulnerability to winter storm events. Franklin reflects Simpson County’s overall history of winter storms, and therefore experiences moderate vulnerability as well.