Hazards in Logan County

Quality of Dam Infrastructure

The American Society of Civil Engineers gave Kentucky a D+ on dam infrastructure, which is only slightly better than the national average. The average US dam is 60 years old, and most dams in Kentucky are over 50. As of 2019, 80 dams in the state are classified as two-fold risks, meaning that they are both high hazards and in poor or unsatisfactory condition. 47% of these 80 dams received that rating partially because they cannot hold enough rain during catastrophic storms. 89% of high hazard dams in Kentucky do not have complete emergency action plans on file with the state. 74% have simplified draft plans, but these are not widely shared and have not been adopted by local officials.

Types of Dam Failure

There are three types of Dam Failure:

1. Structural: This common cause is responsible for nearly 30% of all dam failure in the United States. Structural failure of a dam occurs when there is a rupture in the dam or its foundation.
2. Mechanical: Refers to the failure or malfunctioning of gates, conduits, or valves.
3. Hydraulic: Occurs when the uncontrolled flow of water over the top, around, and adjacent to the dam erodes its foundation. Hydraulic failure is the cause of approximately 34% of all dam failures.

Dam failure in Logan County could result in localized to significant downstream flooding, depending on the size, location, and condition of the dam involved. The county contains a mix of small agricultural impoundments, private farm ponds, and several NRCS flood-control structures designed for stormwater retention and erosion control. Although these dams are generally small compared to high-hazard dams elsewhere in Kentucky, a failure could still generate rapid downstream inundation, erode rural roadways, damage culverts and bridges, and flood agricultural lands, homes, or outbuildings situated within narrow or low-lying drainage corridors.

Logan County’s hydrology—shaped by systems such as Town Branch, Whippoorwill Creek, Red River tributaries, Elk Fork, and the Mud River—means that dam failure could intensify existing flood conditions during periods of heavy rainfall. Even the failure of a low-hazard structure during high-flow periods can increase flood depth, accelerate flow velocities, mobilize debris, and temporarily alter stream channels. In confined or steep drainage areas, warning time would be extremely limited, placing downstream residences, agricultural operations, and road networks at elevated risk.

History of Dam Failure

Logan County has no documented catastrophic dam failures, but the county has experienced a range of dam-related issues typical of rural Kentucky. Small agricultural impoundments and privately owned farm ponds have periodically shown signs of erosion, seepage, or spillway blockage, particularly following periods of intense rainfall. Occasional overtopping events have been reported at older embankments and undersized dams during heavy storm seasons, leading to minor localized flooding, downstream debris movement, or temporary road impacts.

NRCS inspections and Kentucky Division of Water assessments have identified maintenance concerns at several small dams over the years, including vegetation overgrowth, spillway deterioration, and minor structural deficiencies that required owner-led corrections. While none of these incidents resulted in major downstream damage, they highlight the susceptibility of older agricultural dams—many built decades ago—to wear, changing weather patterns, and deferred maintenance.

Regional dam-related incidents in nearby counties, including spillway failures, overtopping during the 2010 and 2021 flood years, and emergency drawdowns at small impoundments, provide relevant context for Logan County. These events demonstrate how prolonged rainfall, saturated soils, and aging dam infrastructure can contribute to near-failure conditions even at low- or moderate-hazard structures.

Because a significant number of dams in Logan County are privately owned and not regularly inspected unless they meet state classification thresholds, vulnerabilities may go unnoticed until severe weather exposes structural weaknesses. This reality underscores the importance of continued public outreach, routine monitoring, and coordination with NRCS and state agencies.

Probability

The probability of a dam failure in Logan County is considered low, but the presence of numerous small, aging agricultural dams and private farm ponds creates a persistent baseline risk. Most of the county’s dams are low-hazard, privately owned structures that may not undergo routine inspection unless they meet state classification criteria. As these dams age, the likelihood of issues such as embankment erosion, internal piping, spillway deterioration, and overtopping during extreme rainfall increases modestly over time.

Logan County’s hydrologic environment—particularly along the Mud River, Red River tributaries, Whippoorwill Creek, and Town Branch—can experience rapid runoff during intense storms. Under such conditions, even small impoundments may be stressed beyond their design capacity. Projected increases in high-intensity rainfall events, as indicated by regional climate models, may further elevate the long-term probability of partial failures or near-failures.

While a catastrophic failure remains unlikely in any given year, Logan County should plan for occasional minor dam-related incidents, especially following prolonged wet periods or storms producing high runoff. For hazard-mitigation planning purposes, dam failure in Logan County is best characterized as low probability but non-negligible, particularly given the aging inventory of rural impoundments.

Built Environment:

A breach can produce rapid inundation that damages or destroys buildings, blocks roads with debris, disrupts traffic and emergency services, and threatens water/wastewater systems—especially if a reservoir supplies drinking water.

Natural Environment:

Floodwaves can scour channels, mobilize debris and contaminants, and disrupt aquatic habitats and riparian systems.

Social Environment:

Fast-arriving floodwaters elevate life-safety risk, particularly for people living/working in low-lying downstream areas with limited warning or evacuation options.

Climate Impacts on Dam Failure:

Increasingly intense rainfall, longer wet periods, and more frequent extreme storm events can raise hydraulic loading on dams, heighten the risk of overtopping, accelerate erosion of embankments and spillways, and reduce warning/response time. Climate-driven shifts can also stress aging infrastructure and complicate reservoir operations (e.g., balancing flood control with drought storage), making proactive maintenance, updated hydrologic/hydraulic studies, and EAP exercises even more critical.

Logan County’s vulnerability to dam failure is moderate, shaped by its rural settlement patterns, agricultural land use, and the concentration of structures and roads located downstream of small impoundments. Many dams in the county were constructed decades ago to support farming operations and may not meet modern engineering standards or have clearly documented maintenance histories. Because most of these structures are privately owned, early signs of distress—such as seepage, animal burrows, or partial embankment erosion—may go unnoticed until heavy rainfall exposes underlying weaknesses.

Downstream vulnerabilities are greatest in narrow drainage corridors, rural subdivisions, agricultural homesteads, and farm buildings located near low-lying creek systems. Roadways are also at risk: sudden releases of water can wash out culverts, undermine embankments, or temporarily block access, particularly in remote parts of the county where alternative routes are limited. Manufactured homes, older structures with shallow foundations, and homes built close to creek banks face elevated consequences in the event of a failure.

Critical infrastructure—including rural water lines, small bridges, and utility corridors crossing drainage paths—may also be affected by rapid outflow or debris movement. Emergency response challenges in rural areas, especially where access is limited by long travel distances or single-entry roadways, further increase potential impacts.

Overall, Logan County’s vulnerability reflects the interaction of aging dam infrastructure, rural population distribution, and limited inspection coverage for privately owned structures. Targeted outreach, owner education, and monitoring of known dams can help reduce downstream risk.

Exposure is greatest where downstream flow paths intersect residential areas, small businesses, and essential services. Given aging dam infrastructure statewide and variable EAP adoption, consequence-focused planning (alerting, route redundancy, and sheltering) remains the priority.

Location/Extent

Drought affects the entirety of Logan County, with especially significant consequences in rural agricultural areas that rely on dependable irrigation and livestock water. During extended dry periods, Barren River Lake levels can drop, affecting recreation and municipal supply. Historical droughts have driven soil-moisture deficits exceeding ~50% and reduced viability of staple crops such as corn and soybeans.

Sensitivity is elevated for row-crop and pasture lands, small public water systems or systems with leakage/limited storage, and surface-water/groundwater users lacking redundant sources. BRADD’s Water System Vulnerability to Drought resource further highlights system-level considerations for the region.

Past Events

Notable events include the 2012 drought, when much of Kentucky—including Logan County—reached D3 (Extreme Drought) on the U.S. Drought Monitor, with widespread agricultural losses, elevated fire risk, and water shortages. From 2000–2025, Logan County experienced ~66 weeks of D2 (Moderate) and ~16 weeks of D3 (Severe/Extreme) drought; USDA issued drought disaster declarations in 2022 and 2023 for documented production losses.

Probability

Long-term monitoring indicates drought is a recurrent hazard. Logan County experienced 674 total weeks of drought over the last 25 years—about a 52% chance that any given week features drought conditions. Projections suggest drought likelihood may increase with climate change as rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns extend dry periods.

Built Environment:

Lower reservoir and well levels can strain municipal water systems, increase infrastructure operating costs (e.g., pumping/energy), and trigger usage restrictions for businesses and institutions; prolonged deficits can reduce fire-flow availability for rural systems.

Natural Environment:

Drought reduces streamflow and aquatic habitat quality, stresses forests and grasslands, and can degrade water quality as lower volumes concentrate pollutants.

Social Environment:

The largest local effects are economic losses in agriculture (crop failures, livestock stress, higher irrigation costs) and secondary risks such as increased wildfire potential; households and small businesses can face water shortages and higher costs.

Climate Impacts on Dam Failure:

Rising temperatures increase evapotranspiration and soil‐moisture loss, while shifting precipitation patterns can produce longer dry spells punctuated by intense storms that do little to recharge groundwater. Hotter summers elevate water demand, stress crops and livestock, worsen algal blooms and other water-quality issues in low flows, and compound risks when heat waves coincide with drought—intensifying health, agricultural, and infrastructure impacts across Edmonson County.

Drought Vulnerability in the BRADD Region

Soil Susceptibility

Soil’s susceptibility to drought varies due to a myriad of factors. The map below depicts vulnerability to drought based on soil type from a moisture retention and availability perspective. For example a shallow fragipan limits the depth of the soil making it more vulnerable to moisture loss. Grey areas indicate that no soil data was available due to lakes, heavily urbanized areas, or strip mining. Susceptibility to Drought Scores were established using the criteria of infiltration, water movement, and water supply for the soils defined in the NRCS Soil Surveys that encompass the state.

Logan County’s drought vulnerability is moderate to high, shaped by its strong agricultural economy, widespread reliance on private wells in rural areas, and dependence on both row-crop and livestock operations that are sensitive to prolonged dry conditions. The county’s major agricultural sectors—particularly soybeans, corn, wheat, cattle, poultry, and hay production—are highly susceptible to forage loss, reduced yields, and increased feed or irrigation costs during extended drought. Older adults and medically vulnerable residents face elevated heat-related health risks during drought-driven high-temperature periods. Rural water associations and households using private wells may experience declining groundwater levels, reduced pumping capacity, or increased maintenance needs during severe dry spells. Limited redundancy in some rural water systems, combined with Logan County’s dispersed population and long travel distances, increases operational and response challenges when drought conditions affect water supply, livestock needs, or public-health protections.

Logan County’s public water system demonstrates low vulnerability to drought.

The soil susceptibility map indicates that the northern portion of Logan County’s soil experiences moderately high susceptibility to drought.

Overall, Logan County has a moderately high vulnerability to drought. Because drought is a non-spatial hazard, this same analysis can be applied to its respective cities – Adairville, Auburn, Lewisburg, and Russellville.

Location/Extent

Kentucky is affected by nearby seismic zones—New Madrid (most active east of the Rockies) and Wabash Valley (capable of M5.5–6.0 damage near population centers). Potential shaking in Butler County ranges from weak/noticeable (MMI II–IV) during distant events to light–moderate (MMI V–VI) in rarer, larger scenarios; secondary effects can include nonstructural damage, minor slope instability, and utility disruptions. The eastern U.S. crust transmits shaking efficiently, so distant earthquakes can be widely felt.

Severity is commonly expressed by earthquake magnitude and by shaking intensity (Modified Mercalli Scale). Butler County’s worst-case consequences depend on regional event size/distance and local amplification/liquefaction potential.

Past Events

Logan County has no recorded damaging earthquakes ≥M3 within its borders, but residents have periodically felt mild shaking from events originating in nearby seismic zones. Small earthquakes associated with the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ), Wabash Valley Seismic Zone (WVSZ), and the East Tennessee Seismic Zone (ETSZ) are occasionally felt across south-central Kentucky, including Logan County. These events typically register as weak to light shaking (MMI II–IV) and rarely cause structural impacts.

Historically, the most significant regional seismic influence was the 1811–1812 New Madrid earthquake sequence, which produced strong shaking across Kentucky, including the area that is now Logan County. While no specific local historical damage accounts exist due to sparse settlement at the time, regional documentation indicates widespread ground disturbance and long-distance shaking effects.

More recent events in western Kentucky, southern Illinois, and central Tennessee have been felt in Logan County. Examples include ETSZ activity throughout the 2010s, the 2018 Decatur, Tennessee (M4.4) earthquake, and several moderate events in Missouri and Arkansas that transmitted perceptible tremors into the region due to the efficient propagation of seismic waves through eastern U.S. bedrock.

Although Logan County has not experienced structural damage from past earthquakes, the recurring pattern of regionally felt events reinforces its exposure to low-probability but potentially high-consequence seismic hazards associated with the surrounding seismic zones.

The probability of a damaging earthquake in Logan County is considered low, but the probability of experiencing felt seismic activity is moderate due to the county’s proximity to three major regional seismic zones: the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) to the west, the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone (WVSZ) to the northwest, and the East Tennessee Seismic Zone (ETSZ) to the southeast. Small earthquakes from these zones occur regularly and may be felt in Logan County every few years, typically producing MMI II–IV shaking.

Moderate shaking (MMI V–VI) is possible within a 50-year planning horizon, particularly from ETSZ or WVSZ events. A major New Madrid earthquake—although a low-probability, high-consequence event—could generate widespread impacts across Kentucky, including Logan County, despite the distance from the epicenter.

While climate change does not affect earthquake frequency, changes in soil saturation from long wet periods may influence ground response, particularly along slopes or in areas with unconsolidated soils. Overall, Logan County should expect occasional felt earthquakes and maintain readiness for rare but potentially significant seismic events associated with the broader regional tectonic framework.

An earthquake could result in structural damage to older buildings, critical facilities, and infrastructure not designed to modern seismic codes. Bridges, utilities, and water systems could sustain significant damage, leading to service disruptions. Secondary impacts might include landslides in certain areas, hazardous material spills, and challenges in emergency response due to blocked roads and damaged communication systems. Economic losses could be substantial, particularly for uninsured property owners.

Built Environment:

Shaking can damage homes and business structures, collapse unreinforced elements, and disrupt roads/bridges, power, water/wastewater, and telecom. Post-event debris and utility outages can hinder emergency response.

Natural Environment:

Secondary effects—liquefaction, landslides, fires, and hazmat releases—can degrade soils, waterways, and habitats.

Social Environment:

Transportation disruption, hospital surge, power/water interruptions, and communications overload elevate life-safety risk and complicate reunification and care for vulnerable groups (children, older adults, LEP populations).

Climate Impacts on Earthquakes:

While climate change does not drive tectonic earthquakes, hydrologic extremes (prolonged drought, heavy precipitation, groundwater withdrawal/recharge) may alter subsurface stresses in limited contexts. The BRADD region has an overall low earthquake risk, so any climate influence on local frequency/severity is likely minor relative to tectonic controls.

Earthquake Vulnerability in Logan County

Logan County is mapped within a moderate perceived shaking zone for high-magnitude regional earthquake scenarios and contains several known local fault lines, increasing the potential for localized ground movement during regional or intraplate seismic events. Because earthquake impacts are non-spatial at the county scale, vulnerability applies countywide, including the cities of Russellville, Auburn, Adairville, and Lewisburg. Key sensitivity factors include older or unretrofitted buildings, unreinforced masonry structures in historic downtown areas, and critical facilities constructed before modern seismic standards. Infrastructure such as bridges, culverts, water and wastewater systems, electric lines, and transportation lifelines located on softer soils or near unconsolidated sediments may be more susceptible to shaking-related damage or differential settlement. While overall earthquake probability remains low, the presence of fault lines and the county’s aging building stock contribute to a moderate level of structural vulnerability during a significant regional seismic event.

Logan County’s vulnerability to earthquakes is low, shaped by its rural building stock, presence of older homes, and limited seismic design in structures built prior to modern building codes. Unreinforced masonry buildings, older brick structures in small communities, and long-span roofs (gyms, warehouses, barns) are particularly susceptible to shaking-related damage. Manufactured housing, while lighter in weight, may shift or sustain anchoring failures during moderate ground motion.

Critical facilities constructed before current seismic standards—such as schools, first-response buildings, and water/wastewater infrastructure—may experience nonstructural failures (ceiling collapses, broken piping, equipment damage) even during lower-intensity shaking. Underground utilities may also be vulnerable to joint separation or service disruption.

Populations most vulnerable include older adults, residents in older or poorly anchored structures, and households with limited resources for retrofitting or repairs. Rural road networks, located in karst terrain and along creek valleys, may experience localized slope instability or shoulder failures that complicate emergency response. While catastrophic impacts are unlikely, even moderate earthquakes could produce disruptive, system-wide effects due to the county’s reliance on regional healthcare, utilities, and emergency-services support.

Logan County is within the “light” perceived shaking zone for a high magnitude earthquake and does not contain significant fault lines.

Because of these factors, Logan County experiences low vulnerability to earthquakes. Because earthquakes are non-spatial hazards, it can be assumed that this analysis should be applied to Logan County’s respective cities – Adairville, Auburn, Lewisburg, and Russellville.

Location/Extent

Location and Extent

Extreme temperature hazards in Logan County include both excessive heat and extreme cold, with impacts occurring countywide across all incorporated cities and rural communities. Summer heat events typically combine high temperatures with elevated humidity to produce heat index values exceeding 100–105°F, creating dangerous conditions for outdoor workers, older adults, youth, and households without reliable air conditioning. Manufactured homes, older residences with limited insulation, and structures lacking adequate ventilation experience the highest levels of indoor heat buildup.

Extreme cold events occur most frequently between December and February, bringing subfreezing temperatures, wind chills below zero, and occasional impacts from ice or winter precipitation. These conditions can strain heating systems, freeze water lines, damage private wells, and disrupt transportation. Rural homes—especially those relying on electric-only heat, older HVAC systems, or exposed well pumps—are more vulnerable during extended cold snaps.

Logan County’s mix of rural housing stock, long travel distances for services, and dependence on overhead utilities increases the consequences of both extreme heat and extreme cold. Power outages, if they occur during a temperature extreme, can quickly escalate into life-safety concerns for medically fragile residents and those without alternative heating or cooling options. The extent of extreme temperature events varies seasonally, but both heat waves and cold outbreaks are capable of producing countywide impacts that affect residents, schools, agriculture, and critical infrastructure.

Historical Occurrences

Cold. Within the regional record (2010–2021), Logan County had one wind chill watch (2014) and one wind chill warning (2015); these events were issued region-wide.

Heat. Across 2010–2021, the BRADD region recorded 18 excessive heat watches and 71 excessive heat warnings; county-level breakdowns show Logan County averaged ~31 extreme-heat days per year (2010–2016).

Probability

Expect recurrent heat seasons with periodic advisory/warning episodes and less frequent but hazardous cold outbreaks. While year-to-year frequency varies, local planning should assume annual heat advisories are likely, with occasional excessive-heat warnings, and intermittent extreme-cold events in some winters.

Extreme heat can lead to heat exhaustion and heatstroke, particularly in outdoor workers, the elderly, and low-income households without access to cooling. It also increases energy demand, raising utility costs and the likelihood of power outages. Severe cold poses risks of frostbite, hypothermia, and infrastructure damage, including frozen pipes and malfunctioning heating systems. Both extremes can disrupt agricultural yields, livestock health, and local economies.

Built Environment:

Cold can burst buried water pipes, strain metal bridge members, and affect trucking/rail operations (e.g., diesel gelling). Heat can soften asphalt, stress vehicle cooling systems and rail operations, and increase water demand, sometimes reducing fire-flow availability.

Natural Environment:

Cold snaps threaten livestock and wildlife and can freeze ponds/streams. Heat can degrade water quality, drive algal blooms, and reduce crop yields and dairy productivity.

Social Environment:

Cold elevates exposure risks for people without adequate shelter or heat and can increase CO poisoning and fire risk; both cold and heat create economic losses (e.g., utility repair, agriculture) and can trigger business/school closures. Heat is the leading U.S. weather-related killer, with illnesses from fatigue to heat stroke.

Climate Impacts on Extreme Temperatures:

Climate change models predict and increase in overall temperature globally for the coming decades, including the BRADD region. With a potential rise of several degrees Fahrenheit, multiple services, systems, and activities face disruption and impact. Temperature increases this small may not seem threatening, but the cumulative impacts will affect weather events, human health, and ecosystem functions, along with economic and social issues related to energy use and cost of living.

Working with  AT&T’s Climate Resilient Communities Program and the  Climate Risk and Resilience (ClimRR) Portal, BRADD identified additional opportunities for hazard mitigation action items associated with climate impacts for Extreme Temperatures in the Barren River Region. To view an interactive report of these findings,   click here.

Logan County’s vulnerability to extreme temperatures is moderate to high, influenced by its rural housing stock, agricultural workforce, and reliance on electric and propane heating and cooling systems. Many older homes and manufactured residences have limited insulation, aging HVAC units, or inadequate weatherization, increasing indoor heat accumulation during summer and heightening the risk of frozen pipes or heating failures during winter cold snaps. Households dependent on private wells may face water-access issues during extreme cold if pumps freeze or power is lost.

Populations at greatest risk during extreme heat include older adults, young children, outdoor and agricultural workers, and residents without reliable air conditioning or the financial means to manage high utility costs. During extreme cold, vulnerability increases for low-income households, individuals using unsafe supplemental heat sources, and those with limited ability to reach warming centers. Rural isolation, long emergency response times, and limited broadband coverage complicate outreach and support during hazardous temperature events.

Critical facilities such as schools, long-term care facilities, EMS stations, and senior living centers may face operational strain from high indoor temperatures, HVAC failures, or increased energy demand. Logan County’s dependence on overhead utility lines also elevates vulnerability; power outages during extreme heat or cold can rapidly escalate into life-safety emergencies for medically fragile residents and households without backup heating or cooling options.

Overall, the combination of aging housing, dispersed rural settlement, and temperature-sensitive populations results in a significant vulnerability that requires ongoing investment in weatherization, public education, and emergency-response capability.

Since 2010, Logan County experienced one wind chill watch (2014) and one wind chill warning (2015).

Because of these factors, Logan County experiences moderate vulnerability to extreme cold events. Adairville, Auburn, Lewisburg, and Russellville reflect Logan County’s overall history of extreme cold, and therefore experience high vulnerability as well.

For extreme heat, on average, Logan County experienced 40.4 extreme heat days per year between 2010 and 2016.

Because of these factors, Logan County experiences high vulnerability to extreme heat events. Adairville, Auburn, Lewisburg, and Russellville reflect Logan County’s overall history of extreme heat, and therefore experience high vulnerability as well.

Flooding in Logan County includes riverine flooding, flash flooding, and localized/poor-drainage flooding, with impacts occurring across both incorporated cities and rural communities. The county’s hydrologic network is defined by the Red River tributaries, Mud River, Whippoorwill Creek, Elk Fork, Town Branch, and numerous smaller creeks and drainage corridors. Riverine flooding occurs most often along the Mud River and Red River systems, leading to inundation of low-lying roadways, agricultural lands, and structures adjacent to creek floodplains.

Flash flooding is a recurring hazard across rural Logan County, particularly in narrow stream valleys, steepened drainage paths, and at low-water crossings where intense rainfall can produce rapid rises and high-velocity runoff. Undersized culverts and aging drainage systems in older parts of Russellville, Adairville, Auburn, and Lewisburg also contribute to periodic street flooding during high-intensity storms.

Logan County also features karst terrain, especially in agricultural and rural areas, where sinkholes, depressions, and underground conduits can influence drainage behavior. When sinkhole inlets become clogged or soils become saturated, rapid ponding or unexpected localized flooding can occur, sometimes outside mapped Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs). Agricultural operations, rural roadways, and homes located on sinkhole plains often experience recurring drainage challenges during prolonged wet periods.

Flooding poses countywide risk, but impacts are most severe along river corridors, headwater basins, and low-lying rural transportation routes where limited redundancy can isolate small communities during high-water events.

Repetitive-Loss & Severe Repetitive-Loss Properties

Logan County has very few FEMA-classified repetitive-loss (RL) or severe repetitive-loss (SRL) properties, and these are confined to two incorporated cities. The unincorporated county, as well as the Cities of Auburn and Lewisburg, each have zero (0) RL or SRL properties under both the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) definitions. The City of Adairville has one (1) single-family property that qualifies as a Repetitive-Loss property under both NFIP and FMA definitions, but it does not meet criteria for Severe Repetitive-Loss under either program. The City of Russellville also has one (1) RL/SRL property, but in this case it is a non-residential structure, and it does not meet NFIP or FMA thresholds for RL or SRL status.

This distribution indicates that, despite Logan County’s exposure to widespread flooding, the number of structures with repeated, insurance-claim–verified flood losses is extremely limited. The low RL/SRL count reflects a combination of the county’s rural development pattern, smaller concentrations of high-risk structures, and the predominance of agricultural lands and low-density housing within known floodplains.

Logan County experienced 51 flood events over 20 years (~2.5 events/year). This places Logan County in the upper-range of regional flood frequency.

Exposure in Logan County is countywide, with riverine flooding occurring along the Mud River, Red River tributaries, Whippoorwill Creek, Elk Fork, Town Branch, and associated smaller streams. Flash flooding is common in narrow drainage corridors, steepened rural basins, and at low-water crossings, where intense rainfall can produce rapid rises and high-velocity runoff. Localized or poor-drainage flooding affects streets and neighborhoods within the Cities of Russellville, Auburn, Adairville, and Lewisburg, particularly in older areas with undersized culverts or aging stormwater infrastructure.

Low-lying agricultural fields, recreation areas, and structures located near creek floodplains experience periodic inundation during high-water events, especially following prolonged rainfall. Logan County also includes areas of karst terrain, where sinkholes, depressions, and losing streams can concentrate stormwater, leading to sudden, localized flooding when drainage inlets clog or soils become saturated. These conditions can result in flooding outside mapped Special Flood Hazard Areas, particularly in rural sinkhole plains and agricultural landscapes.

Click Here to view a summary of all past Disaster Declarations in the BRADD Region.

Below you will find a listing of past NOAA Flood and Flash-Flood Events from 2000-2020 for Logan County.

The probability of flooding in Logan County is high, with the county experiencing flood and flash-flood events on a recurring annual basis. Historical records indicate that Logan County faces multiple flood-related incidents each year, driven by its extensive network of creeks, low-lying agricultural basins, and rural road crossings that are highly sensitive to intense rainfall. Flash flooding is particularly common during spring and summer storm seasons, when short-duration, high-intensity rainfall overwhelms drainage systems in both rural headwater areas and older urbanized portions of Russellville, Auburn, Adairville, and Lewisburg.

Climate projections for south-central Kentucky indicate a continued increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events, including storms producing over one inch of rain per day. This trend elevates the likelihood of both riverine and localized flooding over the 5- to 10-year planning horizon. Rising precipitation intensity, coupled with aging culverts, undersized stormwater systems, and sediment-filled ditches in rural areas, further increases the annual chance of flash-flood conditions.

Although the number of officially documented Repetitive-Loss and Severe Repetitive-Loss properties in Logan County is very low, flooding remains a predictable and routine hazard, with a realistic expectation of multiple events each year. For mitigation planning purposes, Logan County should assume regular seasonal flooding, with heightened probability during periods of prolonged rainfall or severe convective storms.

Extreme heat can lead to heat exhaustion and heatstroke, particularly in outdoor workers, the elderly, and low-income households without access to cooling. It also increases energy demand, raising utility costs and the likelihood of power outages. Severe cold poses risks of frostbite, hypothermia, and infrastructure damage, including frozen pipes and malfunctioning heating systems. Both extremes can disrupt agricultural yields, livestock health, and local economies.

Built Environment:

Flooding can cause structural damage to both residential and commercial buildings and destroy furnishing and inventory.
Flooding will causes inconvenience or stoppage to many system. Transportation systems such as roads and railways become unpassable. Large amounts of water from a flood can affect water management systems such as the backup or hiatus of drainage, sanitary, and sewer systems. As heavy rains persist during a flood event, excess water drains into the ground water system. This causes the water table to rise and cause further ground water floods. If chemicals are mixed with flood waters, this can contaminate the ground water, a common source of fresh water for communities.

Natural Environment:

As flood waters engulf the surrounding natural environment, they are saturated with chemicals and other substances associated with the manmade environment that they have also been in contact with. As these abnormal waters settle and flows through natural ecosystems they can alter and even destroy both plant and animal life. When the flow of flood waters becomes so immense, it can physically destroy or uproot naturally growing vegetation and also drive specific species of animals out of their natural habitats for good.

Social Environment:

People
People with property located in the floodplain or within areas subject to seepage are vulnerable to flooding. Stoppage to transportation systems can make it very difficult for isolated populations to receive aid or escape breeching flood waters. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly or people who need medical attention, may be temporarily cut off from accessing life-saving resources.

Economy
Floods can affect local economies by disrupting transportation systems needed for people to get to and from work and destroying places of business and means of production. When flooding occurs in more rural areas, livestock and agricultural system will be affected. Crops can be destroyed in the growing season, or prevent from seeding in the off season. Large insurance payouts to residents or business owners who have procured flood insurance might also have an economic impact.

Climate Impacts on Flooding:

Climate change models predict and increase in overall temperature globally for the coming decades, including the BRADD region. With a potential rise of several degrees Fahrenheit, multiple services, systems, and activities face disruption and impact. Temperature increases this small may not seem threatening, but the cumulative impacts will affect weather events, human health, and ecosystem functions, along with economic and social issues related to energy use and cost of living.

Working with  AT&T’s Climate Resilient Communities Program and the  Climate Risk and Resilience (ClimRR) Portal, BRADD identified additional opportunities for hazard mitigation action items associated with climate impacts for flooding in the Barren River Region. To view an interactive report of these findings,   click here.

Logan County’s vulnerability to flooding is moderate to high, shaped by its extensive agricultural landscape, rural development patterns, aging drainage infrastructure, and concentration of homes and businesses near creek floodplains. The county’s most sensitive areas include low-lying agricultural lands, rural residential clusters located along the Mud River, Red River tributaries, Whippoorwill Creek, and Elk Fork, and neighborhoods in Russellville and Adairville where undersized culverts, impaired ditches, and older stormwater systems can lead to recurring street or yard flooding. Repeated nuisance flooding in these areas can damage foundations, erode roadbeds, and disrupt access for school buses, emergency services, and agricultural transport.

Rural road networks are particularly vulnerable. Low-water crossings and single-outlet road segments are frequently inundated during flash-flood events, temporarily isolating farms, residences, and small communities. Homes built close to creeks or within shallow floodplains—especially older structures with limited freeboard, pier-and-beam foundations, or unfinished basements—face elevated structural risk. Manufactured housing communities and older housing stock in the county are also more susceptible to damage from shallow flooding or fast-moving runoff.

While Logan County has very few Repetitive-Loss or Severe Repetitive-Loss properties, this does not reflect the full extent of vulnerability. Many rural homes and agricultural operations lack flood insurance, leaving them financially exposed even to minor flooding. Critical facilities—including water and wastewater infrastructure, utility corridors, and roadway bridges—may experience service disruptions if inundation damages electrical components or erodes embankments. Private wells and septic systems, widely used in the unincorporated county, face contamination or functional failure following flood events.

Populations at elevated risk include older adults, low-income households, medically fragile individuals, and residents without reliable transportation who may be unable to avoid flooded routes or access assistance during high-water events. The presence of broad karst plains also increases vulnerability, as sinkhole-related flooding can occur suddenly and outside mapped flood zones, complicating preparedness and mitigation planning.

Overall, Logan County’s vulnerability reflects the intersection of hydrologic exposure, rural infrastructure limitations, and socio-economic sensitivity, requiring ongoing investment in drainage improvements, transportation resilience, public education, and flood-risk awareness.

Between 2000 and 2025, Logan County has had 51 flood events. Further, Logan County has received FEMA Disaster Declarations as a result of flooding in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2020, and 2021. Overall, Logan County experiences very high vulnerability to flood events. The risk for Logan County’s cities is analyzed below.

The City of Adairville has had no historic occurrences of flood and flash-flood events since 2000. Its vulnerability is low.

The City of Auburn has had four historic occurrences of flood and flash-flood events since 2000. Its vulnerability is low.

The City of Lewisburg has had two historic occurrences of flood and flash-flood events since 2000. Its vulnerability is low.

The City of Russellville has had thirteen historic occurrences of flood and flash-flood events since 2000. Its vulnerability is medium.

The extent of a hazardous materials release is characterized by the type of substance, quantity released, state (gas, liquid, solid), dispersion behavior, and weather/terrain conditions. Releases may be constrained and local (e.g. a leaking drum or tank) or large and far-reaching (e.g. vapors spreading over multiple miles, groundwater contamination migrating). Depending on the chemical’s toxicity, volatility, and persistence, an incident could produce acute health effects, long-term environmental harm, or chronic exposure zones. In the BRADD region, credible scenarios include a small spill alongside a highway, a rail car release near populated areas, or a storage tank failure, each producing different spatial footprints and hazard zones.

The BRADD region has a record of hazardous materials incidents, particularly associated with transportation and industrial operations. Kentucky has experienced several costly hazmat transit incidents in recent years. In rail transport, derailments involving chemical cargo have spurred evacuations and environmental response. For example, in 2007, a major derailment in Kentucky released hazardous materials and required area evacuation. Nationally and regionally, chemical spills from industrial plants have caused injury, property damage, and remediation efforts. Some incidents, such as the 1981 Louisville sewer explosions (driven by hexane vapors in sewer lines), illustrate how improper chemical disposal can lead to infrastructure destruction. These past events highlight the potential for both acute and lingering impacts of hazardous material releases.

The probability of a hazardous materials (hazmat) incident in Logan County is moderate to high, driven by the county’s roadway network, industrial activity, and agricultural chemical usage. Major transportation corridors—including U.S. 68/80, U.S. 431, KY 79, KY 100, and the Russellville Bypass—carry regular freight traffic, including commercial vehicles transporting fuels, industrial chemicals, and agricultural products. These routes intersect with local road networks in Russellville, Auburn, Adairville, and Lewisburg, increasing the likelihood of roadway spills or transportation-related hazmat events.

Logan County’s manufacturing sector, which includes food processing, automotive components, metal fabrication, and industrial production, utilizes and stores a variety of regulated materials. While facilities follow state and federal safety requirements, the presence of these materials elevates the baseline probability of fixed-site incidents such as chemical releases, storage-tank leaks, or industrial fires.

Agricultural operations contribute an additional layer of risk. Widespread use of fertilizers, pesticides, anhydrous ammonia, fuel storage, and cleaning agents increases the probability of localized releases, particularly during planting and harvesting seasons. Small on-farm storage tanks or mobile nurse tanks may experience leaks or mechanical failures, while transport vehicles moving agricultural chemicals across rural roads carry an additional risk of accidental release.

Although major chemical disasters are unlikely, the combination of industrial activity, agricultural chemical storage, and high-volume freight transport creates a consistent and ongoing probability of smaller-scale hazmat events in Logan County. Emergency response data and regional incident patterns indicate that the county should expect periodic hazmat occurrences over the 5- to 10-year planning horizon, with transportation-related incidents remaining the most frequent.

Hazardous materials releases can produce widespread and cascading effects across built, natural, and social environments.

Built Environment

Hazardous materials releases can damage roadways, contaminate vehicles or structures, and require temporary closures of key transportation routes. Spills affecting culverts or drainage systems may require costly cleanup to prevent further environmental spread.

Natural Environment

The Green River and its tributaries are highly sensitive to chemical contamination. Fuel or fertilizer spills can produce fish kills, degrade water quality, and disrupt riparian ecosystems. Agricultural soil contamination may impact crop productivity and groundwater quality.

Social Environment

Hazardous materials incidents may require evacuation or shelter-in-place orders for households near spill locations. Impacts can include temporary school closures, disrupted commutes, or delayed emergency response. Vulnerable populations—including older adults, motorists, and individuals in vehicles involved in the incident—are at heightened risk.

Climate Impacts

Increasing temperatures and more volatile weather may heighten the risk of chemical volatilization, stress on agricultural chemical storage, and accident frequency during severe-weather periods.

Logan County’s vulnerability to hazardous materials incidents is moderate, shaped by its mix of industrial facilities, agricultural operations, and dependence on major road corridors for freight transport. The highest vulnerability is concentrated in and around Russellville, where industrial parks, food-processing facilities, and metal or automotive manufacturers store and use regulated chemicals. Fixed-site vulnerabilities include processing chemicals, cleaning agents, refrigerants, fuels, and industrial byproducts that could pose risks to on-site workers and adjacent neighborhoods in the event of a release, fire, or equipment failure.

Transportation-related vulnerability is significant due to the county’s network of U.S. 68/80, U.S. 431, KY 79, and the Russellville Bypass, which carry steady volumes of trucks transporting fuels, agricultural chemicals, and industrial goods. Intersections, sharp curves, and high-traffic nodes near Russellville, Auburn, Adairville, and Lewisburg increase the risk of spills affecting populated areas, schools, or commercial corridors. Rural stretches of these routes also present challenges, as a release in an isolated area may delay detection and response.

Agriculture adds another layer of vulnerability. Widespread use of pesticides, herbicides, fertilizers, and anhydrous ammonia—particularly in large row-crop operations—creates potential for on-farm releases or storage-tank leaks. Operations located near homes, streams, or karst features face greater potential consequences if chemicals enter groundwater pathways or surface-water systems. Mobile nurse tanks used during planting seasons also increase the likelihood of transportation-related incidents on county and farm-to-market roads.

Populations at greatest risk include industrial workers, road users, residents near manufacturing areas, school campuses along major routes, and individuals with respiratory or chemical sensitivities. Logan County’s karst terrain and groundwater-dependent rural households increase vulnerability to contamination, as spills in certain areas can move rapidly through subsurface drainage systems.

Overall, Logan County’s vulnerability reflects the intersection of industrial activity, agricultural chemical use, commuter and freight transportation patterns, and environmental sensitivity, requiring coordinated emergency planning, hazardous materials training, and strong communication among industry, first responders, and local government.

Logan County’s vulnerability is shaped by its agricultural and manufacturing base, which includes facilities handling fuels, fertilizers, and cleaning chemicals. The City of Russellville serves as a regional hub with moderate traffic of tankers and delivery vehicles. Industrial zones and transportation corridors near residential areas create overlapping exposure pathways. Rural areas may experience slower response and longer cleanup times following an incident.

Emerging infectious disease (EID) outbreaks can range from small, localized clusters to countywide or multi-county epidemics, depending on the pathogen’s transmissibility (e.g., R₀), incubation/asymptomatic period, mode of transmission (airborne, droplet, contact, vector, food/water), clinical severity, and availability of countermeasures (vaccines/antivirals). Severity is often expressed through combinations of attack rate, hospitalization and ICU utilization, case fatality ratio, and the duration/number of waves, which together determine stress on healthcare, schools, businesses, and critical services. FEMA’s planning policy expects plans to describe a hazard’s type, location, and extent and to include previous occurrences and the probability of future events; for EIDs, this typically means using qualitative scales (e.g., low/moderate/high) informed by public-health surveillance and scenario analysis.

Logan County’s EID context mirrors the region and state: 2009 H1N1 influenza produced widespread illness and vaccination campaigns; COVID-19 (2020–2022) caused repeated surges, remote learning periods, healthcare strain, and workforce disruptions across south-central Kentucky, with lingering recovery needs. At smaller scales, seasonal influenza, gastrointestinal outbreaks, hepatitis A, and tick-borne illnesses recur and periodically challenge local public-health capacity. For hazard-mitigation purposes, these events document that infectious hazards are recurring and can escalate quickly, even when initial clusters are small.

EIDs are non-spatial at the county scale: exposure is countywide and follows human activity patterns. Transmission risk is elevated where people congregate or where mobility is high, including schools and childcare sites, long-term care and healthcare facilities, workplaces and distribution/logistics hubs, correctional settings, places of worship, and events/venues. Vulnerability may be higher for neighborhoods with older adults, people with chronic conditions, uninsured/under-insured residents, or limited access to primary care, and for settings with shared housing or limited ventilation.

The probability of emerging infectious disease (EID) activity in Logan County is ongoing and moderate, with routine outbreaks of respiratory and gastrointestinal pathogens expected annually—particularly during school terms, peak winter illness seasons, and periods of increased regional travel. As part of a highly connected region along the I-65 corridor, Hart County experiences regular population movement through Munfordville, Horse Cave, and nearby tourism centers, increasing opportunities for disease introduction and spread.

Over a 5–10-year planning horizon, the likelihood of a significant EID event—one capable of stressing healthcare resources, disrupting school operations, or triggering countywide public-health interventions—is moderate to high, based on recent regional experience with COVID-19, influenza surges, RSV waves, and norovirus clusters. Congregate settings such as schools, long-term care facilities, correctional environments, and food-processing or manufacturing workplaces increase transmission probability for both known and novel pathogens.

Probability is further influenced by vaccination uptake, healthcare access, and timeliness of detection. Lower vaccination or booster rates, limited access to primary care, and delays in testing can elevate the likelihood of sustained transmission. Conversely, strong public-health communication, rapid testing availability, and coordinated outbreak response lower overall risk. Climate-related stressors—including hotter summers, reduced air quality, and shifting vector ecology—may indirectly increase disease transmission by contributing to indoor crowding or extending seasonal activity for certain pathogens.

For planning purposes, Logan County should expect consistent annual EID activity, with the potential for periodic high-impact outbreaks that require coordinated public-health and emergency-management action.

Impact

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) can trigger cascading consequences across systems even when case counts are moderate, because illness, isolation, and precautionary measures disrupt people, places, and services simultaneously. Direct health impacts (morbidity, mortality) are compounded by workforce absenteeism, supply-chain delays, and surges on healthcare and public health operations. The breadth of consequences depends on the pathogen’s transmissibility and severity, the speed of detection, and the availability of countermeasures (testing, treatment, vaccination) and risk communication.

Built Environment

EIDs strain the built environment indirectly by stressing the facilities and systems people operate. Hospitals, clinics, EMS stations, and pharmacies can exceed functional capacity, requiring surge spaces and changes to ventilation and patient flow. Public buildings, schools, and workplaces may need operational adjustments (enhanced cleaning, spacing, HVAC improvements), and staffing gaps can delay maintenance for roads, utilities, and public facilities. Supply-chain disruptions can slow construction projects and limit availability of critical parts for water/wastewater, transportation, and communications systems.

Natural Environment

While EIDs primarily affect human systems, response activities can influence the environment. Increased use of medical disposables and disinfectants elevates medical and solid-waste volumes, requiring proper handling to avoid secondary environmental impacts. Wastewater surveillance—often deployed for EIDs—integrates environmental sampling into public health practice and necessitates careful lab and sampling protocols. Changes in human activity (e.g., reduced travel) may temporarily alter local air quality and traffic-related emissions.

Social Environment

EIDs most strongly affect the social environment. Illness, isolation, and caregiving responsibilities reduce workforce availability, interrupt schooling and childcare, and strain household finances—especially for hourly and small-business workers. Behavioral-health needs rise due to stress, grief, and prolonged uncertainty, while misinformation can erode trust and complicate protective actions. Impacts are disproportionate for older adults, people with chronic conditions, low-income and uninsured residents, and those in congregate or high-exposure settings (schools, long-term care, logistics and retail).

Climate Impacts on EID

Climate does not directly “cause” EIDs, but it can shape risk conditions. Hotter summers and poor air-quality days can drive indoor crowding, increasing transmission opportunities for respiratory pathogens. Shifts in precipitation and temperature can extend vector seasons (ticks, mosquitoes) and alter wildlife–human interfaces that enable zoonotic spillover. Climate stress on infrastructure and households (e.g., heat waves, severe storms) can also complicate access to care and continuity of operations, amplifying the consequences of an outbreak when it coincides with other hazards.

Logan County’s vulnerability to emerging infectious diseases is moderate to high, shaped by its workforce patterns, health-system capacity, socio-economic characteristics, and the presence of congregate settings across the county. Russellville serves as the regional hub for schools, manufacturing, retail, and healthcare, meaning that large numbers of residents interact daily in dense indoor workplaces, production facilities, and educational environments—conditions that can accelerate transmission during respiratory or gastrointestinal outbreaks. Logan County’s manufacturing sector, with many facilities operating in close-quarters settings and employing both local and commuting workers, heightens vulnerability due to shift-based schedules, shared equipment, and the potential for rapid spread within worksites.

Health-system vulnerability is influenced by logistics and capacity constraints. Logan County relies heavily on healthcare providers and hospital services in Bowling Green, with limited inpatient and specialized services available locally. Surges in demand—whether from influenza, COVID-19, RSV, or novel pathogens—can quickly strain primary-care offices, urgent care centers, and EMS operations. Vulnerability is further elevated among older adults, individuals with chronic conditions, low-income residents, and households with limited access to primary care, who may delay seeking treatment or face barriers to preventive services such as vaccinations.

Schools, long-term care facilities, childcare centers, and correctional environments represent key settings where outbreaks can spread quickly. Seasonal agricultural workforces and mobile labor populations also elevate risk, particularly when workers live in shared housing, rely on carpooling, or face access barriers to healthcare. Broadband gaps and inconsistent digital connectivity in rural areas complicate telehealth access and public-health communication during emerging disease events.

Environmental factors—including extreme heat, poor air quality episodes, and changing vector patterns—may amplify certain disease risks or increase indoor crowding, indirectly contributing to higher transmission potential. Overall, Logan County’s vulnerability reflects the intersection of workforce density, healthcare access limitations, congregate living and learning environments, and socio-economic disparities, requiring strong surveillance, vaccination uptake, public-health communication, and emergency preparedness.

Logan County’s vulnerability is relatively higher among the more rural counties owing to its role as a regional hub in parts of the region (Russellville). With clinics, local hospitals, and intercounty interaction, transmission chains could propagate if detection or containment is delayed. High prevalence of chronic health conditions may increase the severity of disease outcomes in vulnerable segments of the population.

The Kentucky Geological Survey (KGS) identifies two ways in which sinkholes collapse:

1. The roof of a cave becomes too thin to support the weight of the material above it and collapses.
2. Limestone bedrock develops a fracture that is enlarged by water dissolving the limestone. As the limestone erodes, the soil above it slowly falls into the developing sinkhole. This type of cover-collapse is typically very slow and occurs over a long period of time. Only in rare instances will limestone bedrock dissolution cause a rapid collapse.

Karst-related hazards happen quickly and without warning. However, scientists have mapped a large portion of the BRADD region to determine where these hazards are most likely to occur. A snapshot of this mapping is located above. to view a fully interactive map and explore sinkholes by jurisdiction, click on the link below.

The likelihood of new sinkhole formation or reactivation of existing depressions is moderate under current conditions and increasing with expanding development, aging stormwater systems, and heavier rainfall patterns. While most collapses are small and isolated, their unpredictability and potential to undermine roads or utilities justify continued monitoring and maintenance of known karst features.

Damages to human-made structures caused by sinkholes can range from minor to severe. Office buildings, homes, roads, utility lines, and other critical facility or structure located above a sinkhole could be affected. If the sinkhole is large enough, it can affect an entire building or home when it collapses. Minor sinkholes will cause brief damage and are usually fixed with simple excavation techniques.

Drainage water runs into sinkholes during heavy rains and will affect any structures built within the flood plain of a given sinkhole. Present sinkhole vulnerability to flooding can alter the urbanization plans and other forms of expansion and commercialization.

Transportation systems are greatly affected by sinkholes since much of the BRADD’s roadways and highways are constructed over sinkholes. When these sinkholes collapse they not only destroy the road itself but the ground beneath it. Intricate and expensive excavating techniques must be utilized to repair a roadway and its ground foundation affected by a sinkhole.

Because of the vast amount of sinkholes in the BRADD region, there is an extensive groundwater network that supplies public water systems serving many residents. Groundwater essentially originates from rain or other forms of precipitation that soak into the ground and move forward to fill cracks and other openings in soils and rocks. This permeable layer is known as an aquifer. Groundwater is also an abundance natural resource making up 9% of all the freshwater in the world. This water is a direct main source for usable, fresh water for over a million residents in Kentucky, including the Barren River region. For surface streams, groundwater provides as a base flow when it is not raining. Groundwater, especially in a karst environment, is highly susceptible to contamination. Impure rain water, septic tank effluent, agricultural pesticides, and animal waste all contribute to the contamination of groundwater through seepage and runoff. However, contamination problems are aggravated in karst areas by the practice of the disposal of solid and liquid wastes into sinkholes where they may be washed directly into the aquifer.

The natural environment is very vulnerable to the effects of sinkholes. Carbonic rock such as limestone is eroded away by acidic rain and water runoff. This carves out subterranean passages throughout the underside of the landscape. When the ground level clay or cohesive rock materials cannot support the weight, they cave in and fall into these passages. The result is a karst landscape. Sinkhole collapse greatly damages and alters the natural environment. Groundwater contamination can kill cave aquatic life.

People – Anyone living or working near sinkholes or within the drainage basin of a sinkhole is vulnerable. Karst can lead to radon-related health concerns, sinkhole collapse can lead to loss of life and property, groundwater contamination may lead to build-up of dangerous gases in homes and businesses, and flooding may cause drowning.

Economy – Cost of making repairs to property, repairing roads, preparing special foundations for large buildings, an extending public water lines to replace polluted groundwater.

There is an expected impact on sinkholes due to climate change. Increasing temperatures will likely affect hydrologic processes, enhance dissolution of limestone, and promote soil failure. It was found in one study that with every increase of 0.2ºF in global temperature, there is a 1-3% increase in the number of sinkholes, thus, there is a high possibility that an increase in sinkholes is due to climate change. With an increase in intense rain events, there could also be an increase in sinkholes opening due to runoff and undermining of soil.

Potential impacts include:

• Damage to roads and property
• Displacement of residents
• Transportation issues (traffic, blocked routes)
• Economic loss due to changes in development patterns or sinkholes/flooding

Working with AT&T’s Climate Resilient Communities Program and the Climate Risk and Resilience (ClimRR) Portal, BRADD identified additional opportunities for hazard mitigation action items associated with climate impacts for Karst Landscapes in the Barren River Region. To view an interactive report of these findings, click here.

Logan County’s vulnerability to karst and sinkhole hazards is moderate, reflecting the county’s underlying limestone geology, widespread agricultural land use, and growing development pressure around Russellville, Auburn, and Adairville. While the county’s karst terrain is not as extensive as that of eastern BRADD counties, sinkholes, depressions, and subsurface drainage conduits are common in many rural areas and can create chronic or sudden hazards when stormwater overwhelms natural drainage pathways.

Rural homes, farm structures, and outbuildings located on shallow soils or near mapped sinkhole clusters are particularly susceptible to subsidence, foundation damage, and localized flooding when sinkholes clog or collapse. Agricultural operations may face additional risk if sinkholes open in crop fields, livestock areas, or farm roads, resulting in loss of pastureland, equipment damage, or injuries to livestock. Because many sinkholes connect directly to subsurface drainage systems, contamination of groundwater and private wells is a concern when spills, agricultural runoff, or floodwaters enter karst features.

Urban and suburban development patterns contribute to vulnerability. In Russellville and Auburn, older stormwater systems and increasing impervious surface coverage can direct runoff toward karst depressions, heightening the risk of unexpected flooding, pavement failures, or structural settlement. Residential subdivisions built on or near sinkhole plains may experience recurring drainage issues or increased repair costs if stormwater management systems do not properly account for karst soil behavior.

Populations at risk include homeowners unfamiliar with karst hazards, residents relying on private wells, and low-income households with limited resources for foundation repair or septic maintenance. Critical facilities, such as water lines, sewer infrastructure, and roadways built across karst depressions, may experience periodic failures or require costly maintenance.

Overall, Logan County’s vulnerability is driven by the combined influence of natural karst processes, rural development patterns, aging infrastructure, and environmental sensitivity of groundwater systems. Proactive land-use planning, public education, and continued mapping of sinkhole-prone areas help reduce long-term risk.

Based on KGS’s data there are 7,048 Topo and LiDAR-identified sinkholes within Logan County. In the unincorporated areas of the county (only county land), there are 6,920 topo and LiDAR-identified sinkholes.

The northwestern portion of Logan County has low karst potential. However, the southern and eastern portions of the county have a high potential for karst/sinkholes.

Due to these factors, Logan County experiences moderate to high vulnerability to sinkholes. The risk for Logan County’s cities is analyzed below.

Adairville has 3 identified sinkholes. Its vulnerability is low.

Auburn has 46 identified sinkholes. Its vulnerability is moderate.

Lewisburg has 0 sinkholes. Its vulnerability is low.

Russellville has 80 sinkholes. Its vulnerability is high.

Landslide Susceptibility

During Kentucky’s 2018 Hazard Mitigation Plan update, Kentucky Geological Survey (KGS) developed a landslide susceptibility map for the state in order to show which areas have greater landslide risk due to slope and geology. Using the KGS data, BRADD staff created a landslide susceptibility dashboard for our 10-counties. Click on the button below to access the BRADD Landslide Dashboard.

The probability of landslides in Logan County is low to moderate, reflecting the county’s predominantly rolling terrain but acknowledging localized areas where slope, soil composition, and drainage conditions increase susceptibility. Logan County has experienced 5 documented landslide events over the past 30 years, averaging approximately 0.17 events per year, or a 17% chance of at least one landslide occurring annually. Most events have been small, shallow slides affecting road embankments, streambanks, and cut slopes along rural transportation routes.

Landslides in Logan County typically occur during periods of prolonged rainfall, especially when soils become saturated or when rapid freeze–thaw cycles weaken slope stability. Areas along creek corridors—particularly where banks are undercut—are more prone to slumping or erosion-related failures. Road cuts, fill slopes, and embankments along state highways and county roads also experience occasional instability, especially where drainage is inadequate or vegetation has been removed.

Although large, catastrophic landslides are unlikely, climate projections indicating an increase in high-intensity precipitation events may elevate the long-term probability of localized slope failures. Episodes of heavy rainfall followed by saturated soil conditions historically coincide with landslide occurrences in Logan County, suggesting that the county should anticipate occasional, isolated events, particularly during wet winter and spring seasons.

Human-made structures are directly affected by landslides. Any structures such as buildings, roads, bridges, street lighting, and power lines can be completely destroyed if in the direct life of the landslide.

Any roads or other transportation systems that are in the path of a landslide will be directly affected. Roads can either be covered by the debris or wiped completely away. Power lines and telecommunication networks would also be directly affected. Along with roads, telephone poles and towers can be damaged and ruined during the event of a landslide.

A landslide, itself, involves natural materials. The drastic displacement of earth, trees, and debris can cause persistent problems such as continued erosion. Landslides can carry contaminated materials into streams and other water bodies, directly affect wildlife by destroying wildlife habitats such as wooded areas, streams, and ponds. This can affect the ecosystem and all living things within it.

People

The vulnerability of a landslide do not affect one section of the population more than another. Anyone living in an area at high risk of a landslide will be affected. Landslides can occur spontaneously and randomly.

Economy

Economic costs associated with landslides are due to replacement costs for any property damaged. If transportation and telecommunication networks are damaged or destroyed, it may lead to business closures for a brief time.

There is limited evidence connecting climate change to an increase in landslides; however, it is theorized that more intense rainfall, rain-on-snow events, mean warming, permafrost thaw, glacier retreat, and coastal erosion can lead to rockface instability and decreased slope (IPCC 2022). There has been an increase in landslides in certain areas of the world and it is expected that there will be an increase in frequency in northwestern North America. Studies make these projections based on increasing rainfall intensity and frequency, so it is possible that the BRADD region may see minor impacts from these in the form of slumps and low-grade slope failure. Kentucky’s landslides mostly occur in Eastern Kentucky, so the BRADD region should not be significantly impacted.

• Potential impacts include:
• Infrastructure damage
• Ecosystem damage
• Loss of life
• Economic loss

Logan County’s vulnerability to landslides is low to moderate, concentrated in areas where slope, soil type, and drainage conditions intersect with transportation infrastructure and rural development. Although much of the county consists of gently rolling farmland, localized terrain features—such as steep streambanks, dissected valleys, and road embankments—create pockets of elevated vulnerability. Slopes adjacent to the Mud River, Red River tributaries, Whippoorwill Creek, and smaller creeks are susceptible to erosion, bank slumping, and shallow slide activity, particularly after prolonged rainfall or high-flow events that undercut banks.

Transportation infrastructure represents one of the county’s most significant vulnerabilities. Road cuts, fill slopes, and embankments along KY 79, U.S. 68/80, U.S. 431, and numerous county-maintained roads can destabilize during wet periods, resulting in blocked travel lanes, shoulder failures, or limited access for emergency services and school transportation. Rural roads with limited redundancy are particularly at risk, as even small slides can temporarily isolate households or agricultural operations.

Homes and structures built near streambanks, on steepened terrain, or on poorly drained soils face potential foundation settlement, slope creep, or drainage issues. Agricultural lands may also experience soil loss or gully formation, especially where slopes are cultivated without erosion-control measures. Areas with significant vegetation disturbance—such as new construction, cleared rights-of-way, or poorly maintained drainage channels—are more susceptible to slope instability.

Populations most affected include rural residents living near vulnerable slopes, commuters using hillside roads, and agricultural operators whose fields or access routes may be disrupted. Karst features in some areas of the county can compound vulnerability by altering drainage patterns, directing water toward slopes, or contributing to unexpected subsurface erosion.

Overall, Logan County’s vulnerability stems from the interaction of localized terrain features, hydrologic conditions, agricultural land use, and transportation dependencies, requiring ongoing monitoring, maintenance of drainage infrastructure, and integration of slope-stability considerations into road design and rural development planning.

Since 1991, KGS has recorded 3 landslides in Logan County. This averages to .1 landslide events per year.

Because of these factors, Logan County experiences low vulnerability to landslide events. The risk for Logan County’s cities is analyzed below.

The City of Adairville has had no historic occurrences of landslide events. Its vulnerability is low.

The City of Auburn has had no historic occurrences of landslide events. Its vulnerability is low.

The City of Lewisburg has had one historic occurrence of landslide events. Its vulnerability is low.

The City of Russellville has had no historic occurrences of landslide events. Its vulnerability is low.

In addition to the current COVID-19 Pandemic, the Kentucky Cabinet for Health and Family Service explains that there have been four other pandemics in United States in the last 100 years: the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu, the 1956-1958 Asian Flu, the 1968-1969 Hong Kong Flu, and the 2009 Novel H1N1. Combined, these four pandemics have claimed thousands of lives in the Commonwealth, hundreds of thousands in the United States, and millions worldwide.

Spanish Influenza 1918-1919: Historical examples of pandemic demonstrate that while a pandemic may be devastating to a community from a life safety and economic standpoint, the threat was often downplayed and ignored. The 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic was initially disregarded as having a significant impact because influenza was thought of as a minor illness that incapacitated the sick for a relatively short period of time before they eventually recovered. However, as the Spanish Influenza rose to pandemic level, it redefined the public’s perception of the virus. A historian at the time noted that at a military encampment in southern Ohio, soldiers would arrive healthy and within twenty-four hours would be dead from the flu. The virus spread globally along trade routes and shipping lines. Residents of North American, Europe, Africa, Asia, Brazil, and the South Pacific were particularly affected by the illness, which in-total infected 1/5 of the global population. In contrast to the majority of flu strains, the Spanish Influenza primarily affected young, healthy adults between the ages of 20 and 40. The mortality rate was 2.5%, an astounding figure given that flu outbreaks typically have a rate of 0.1%. By the end of the pandemic, the virus had claimed 20 million lives worldwide and 675,000 in the United States.

Asian Flu 1956-1958: The New York Times first broke the news of the Asian Flu in 1957 when they published a story of a flu virus that had infected 250,000 in Hong Kong. Months after this story was published, the disease had spread to the United States. Unlike Spanish Influenza, the Asian Flu was most commonly reported in the vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and individuals with heart and lung conditions. People with rheumatic heart disease and women in their third trimester of pregnancy were uniquely impacted. Infection for this pandemic came in two parts—the first in the late summer of 1957 and the second in the winter of 1958. The death toll for the Asian Flu widely varies, with sources reporting between 1 and 4 million deaths worldwide and approximately 69,800 in the United States.

Hong Kong Flu 1968-1969: The Hong Kong Flu is the mildest of all pandemics of the 20th century, a fact that is often explained by its similarity to the Asian Flu which increased immunity to the 1968 strain and the fact that it hit the United States in late December when most students were on break, reducing opportunities for spread. As with the Asian Flu, the vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly, were most at risk. By the end of the pandemic in 1969, it had claimed 33,800 lives in the US.

H1N1 2009-2010: This pandemic first appeared in the United States in the spring of 2009. By June, H1N1 had infected 18,000 people in the US. The virus primarily affected the populations most typically affected by the flu: children and infants, pregnant women, the elderly, and individuals with prior-existing health conditions. Due to advancements in medical research and technology, the overall impact of the pandemic was curbed. A vaccine was introduced in the fall of 2009. Approximately 80 million people were vaccinated worldwide. By the time the pandemic was declared over in the spring of 2010, between 43-89 million people had been infected and between 8,870 and 18,300 people had died.

COVID-19 2020-2023: The most recent pandemic first appeared in the United States in the spring of 2020. By July 2020, COVID-19 had infected over 200,000 people worldwide. The virus initially primarily affected the elderly, and individuals with prior-existing health conditions, however as spread increased so did the populations at-risk. A vaccine was approved for use against the virus in December of 2020, and in May of 2023 the World Health Organization declared an end to the public health emergency of international concern.

Pandemics have a low-probability but high-consequence profile. Globally, pandemic-level events occur several times per century, though moderate-scale regional epidemics—such as severe influenza seasons—are more frequent. For Edmonson County, the likelihood of a pandemic impacting the community over a 10-year planning horizon is classified as moderate, driven by:

• High levels of regional and interstate travel
• Workforce movement into and out of Hart County’s commercial centers
• Increasing global connectivity
• Seasonal respiratory disease patterns
• Periodic emergence of novel viral strains

Although pandemics remain rare compared to other hazards, their prolonged and system-wide impacts justify sustained planning and mitigation.

Infrastructure could be impacted due to lack of repair and upkeep if pandemic is extensive and lengthy; Utility lines and repairs would take longer to repair due to manpower lost.

Potential increased loss of agricultural assets (crop & livestock) due to loss of manpower to harvest crop; fewer livestock and crop markets due to restriction of crowds which prevent spread of pandemic disease;

People

Farmers-pandemic could affect crop production & yield since they could not seed or harvest; General populace -would be impacted due to both physical and psychological impacts of disease; Possible school closures would aid in disrupting spread of disease; Vulnerable populations may experience more impacts due to synergistic effects of pandemic symptomology. Additionally, the county could expirence increased emergency clinical care visits, more hospitalization (upwards 1-4% symptomatic patients will require hospitalization) leading to severe and overwhelming impacts on healthcare and public health system; workforce absences leading to minimal patient care

Economy

Pandemic can cause business slowdown or even recession; decreased food and merchandise shipped throughout area would increase cost; loss of buyers and sellers due to potential risk of contagion. Increased staff absences (upwards 50% workforce may require time off over entire period of pandemic).

The 2016 Global Risk Report published by the World Economic Forum has proposed that climate change could be a causal factor in future pandemics. This finding is further explored in a 2016 report produced by Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, Pandemics in a Changing Climate – Evolving Risk & Global Response. The report explains that vector ecology indicates the potential for climate change to create the conditions for future pandemics. Changes in temperature, precipitation, and pH levels due to climate change will impact the quantity and quality of ecological services, such as food, water, and soil. Ecosystem shifts can impact the migratory patterns, habitats, population, and survivability of certain animal and insect populations. Such changes may increase human-animal or human-insect contact, increasing the likelihood of transmission. For example, as hot summer months extend tick and mosquito populations, both culprits in transmission of epidemic-causing viruses, can survive longer and have more opportunities to infect humans. Climate change may have more direct impacts on humans by making certain populations, particularly in developing countries, more susceptible to illness by creating food and water security crises.

Logan County’s vulnerability to pandemic-scale infectious disease events is moderate to high, shaped by its workforce characteristics, reliance on regional healthcare systems, and presence of multiple congregate settings. The county’s largest population center—Russellville—serves as a regional hub for schools, manufacturing, retail, and essential services, concentrating daily interactions among residents, commuters, and out-of-county workers. Logan County’s manufacturing sector, which includes food production, automotive components, and industrial facilities operating on multi-shift schedules, increases vulnerability due to close-quarters work environments, shared equipment, and the potential for rapid disease spread within large employee groups.

Healthcare vulnerability is elevated by the county’s dependence on Bowling Green for hospital-based and specialized medical care. Local primary-care offices, urgent care clinics, and EMS resources can become strained quickly during surges in respiratory or gastrointestinal illness. Residents with chronic health conditions, older adults, uninsured individuals, and households facing transportation barriers are at heightened risk for delayed diagnosis, limited access to treatment, or worse clinical outcomes. Congregate settings—including long-term care facilities, schools, childcare centers, and correctional environments—serve as both high-exposure locations and amplification points during widespread disease outbreaks.

Socio-economic factors also increase vulnerability. Rural isolation, pockets of poverty, limited broadband access, and variable digital literacy reduce the effectiveness of telehealth, remote schooling, and public-health messaging. Multi-generational households and residents working multiple service or manufacturing jobs may experience greater exposure risk and fewer opportunities to isolate or recuperate without economic hardship.

Pandemic impacts also extend to critical infrastructure, where absenteeism among essential workers—EMS, utilities, public safety, food processing, and school personnel—can disrupt service continuity. Overall, Logan County’s vulnerability reflects the intersection of workforce density, healthcare access limitations, congregate environments, socio-economic disparities, and infrastructure dependencies, emphasizing the importance of regional coordination, vaccination uptake, public-health communication, and continuity-of-operations planning.

Logan County is moderately vulnerable. The presence of medical clinics and hospitals offers some resilience, but increased demand may overwhelm capacity during significant pandemic waves. Populations with chronic diseases may face more severe outcomes. Intercounty movement increases transmission risk.

Location: Severe storms are considered a region-wide, non-spatial hazard, meaning all areas of Logan County are equally likely to be struck by damaging wind, hail, lightning, and other storm hazards. While exposure is countywide, the greatest potential for property damage and infrastructure disruption occurs in and around Russellville, Auburn, Adairville, and Lewisburg, where development density, commercial activity, and critical facilities are concentrated. Rural areas remain highly exposed as well, particularly where manufactured homes, farm structures, and overhead utilities are widespread.

Extent: The profile evaluates hail, wind, and lightning (tornadoes are handled separately). Severe thunderstorms are defined by hail ≥ ¾”, wind gusts ≥ 50 knots (57.5 mph), or a tornado. Straight-line winds in extreme cases can exceed 100 mph.

Past events / occurrence: Hart County has recorded 97 severe storm events over 21 years (≈ 4.6 events annually).

The BRADD region’s probability of severe storms is rated High  based on annual frequency; this regional rating applies to Hart County as well.

• Logan: 138 severe storm events/21 years = 6.57 wind events annually

Vehicles, roofs, windows, utilities, roads, and culverts are vulnerable; straight-line winds  can down trees/power lines, causing outages from hours to weeks.

Increased stormwater runoff, localized flooding, tree loss, and impacts to fish/wildlife;  crop and livestock damage are common consequences.

Outdoor workers and people without timely warnings (boaters, campers, farmers, construction crews) are especially susceptible; damages can trigger brief  business closures where transport/telecom are affected.

Research indicates climate change is increasing the number of days with sufficient CAPE and vertical wind shear to produce severe storms (hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes), implying more frequent environments favorable to severe weather in the region.

Logan County’s vulnerability to severe storms is high, driven by its mix of rural housing stock, agricultural operations, overhead utilities, and concentrations of population and critical services in Russellville, Auburn, Adairville, and Lewisburg. Manufactured homes—including both older units and those without robust anchoring systems—face heightened risk from damaging winds and falling debris. Older site-built structures with limited roof bracing or aging electrical systems are also more susceptible to storm-related damage. Across rural areas, barns, grain systems, equipment sheds, and poultry houses represent significant economic exposure, as severe wind or hail can cause substantial agricultural losses.

Critical facilities such as schools, emergency services, long-term care centers, and water and wastewater infrastructure may experience operational disruptions if storms damage power lines, backup generators, or communications systems. Logan County’s reliance on overhead electric distribution contributes to frequent power outages during severe thunderstorms and wind events, which can escalate vulnerability for medically fragile residents and disrupt business continuity.

Transportation corridors—including U.S. 431, U.S. 68/80, KY 79, and rural county roads—are vulnerable to downed trees, localized flash flooding, and debris, which can hinder emergency response and isolate rural communities. Lightning poses additional risk to agricultural operations, communication towers, and unprotected structures.

Populations most affected include residents of manufactured homes, low-income households with limited means to repair storm damage, individuals dependent on electricity for medical devices, and agricultural producers whose livelihood depends on weather-sensitive infrastructure. Overall, Logan County’s vulnerability reflects the intersection of wind-sensitive housing, infrastructure dependencies, agricultural exposure, and dispersed rural settlement, underscoring the need for hardened utilities, safe-room access, public warning systems, and community preparedness.

Logan County has experienced 138 severe storm events/21 years = 6.57 wind events annually.

Because of these factors, Logan County experiences high vulnerability to severe storms. Adairville, Auburn, Lewisburg, and Russellville reflect Logan County’s overall history of severe storms, and therefore experience high vulnerability as well.

Because terrorism is intentional and adversarial, traditional frequency-based risk assessments are not sufficient for evaluating potential impacts. Unlike natural hazards, terrorism cannot be forecasted or modeled using historical trends alone. Effective assessment must incorporate intelligence inputs, threat actor capabilities, and scenario planning to understand possible modes of attack and associated vulnerabilities.

At present, there is limited differentiation between types of terrorism that may affect the region. Distinguishing between domestic and international threats, as well as between physical, cyber, or hybrid forms of terrorism, can help clarify risk pathways and improve mitigation strategies. The region’s profile would also benefit from identifying and assessing critical infrastructure and “soft targets” that may be more susceptible to intentional acts, such as public gathering venues, utilities, schools, and government facilities.

Because terrorism is intentional and adversarial, you cannot rely solely on historical frequency to derive probability. Many risk models for terrorism must incorporate intelligence assessments, threat actor capabilities, and scenario planning.

While the page references terrorism conceptually, it does not currently include coordination protocols with law enforcement, fusion centers, or homeland security partners that monitor and share threat intelligence. Strengthening interagency coordination—particularly with local emergency management, police, and state agencies—would provide a more credible understanding of regional exposure and response capability.

Cascading and secondary effects of terrorism events, such as public panic, misinformation, economic disruption, and strain on emergency and health systems, are also important considerations. The social and psychological impacts of terrorism can be significant even when physical damage is limited, underscoring the need to plan for behavioral health support and long-term community recovery.

Additionally, the region’s profile does not currently evaluate local preparedness measures such as continuity of operations plans (COOP), security assessments, or mass-casualty response capacity, which are key indicators of resilience. Future updates should also consider emerging risks, such as cyber-physical attacks on utilities and critical networks, and how these may intersect with traditional forms of terrorism.

Finally, it is important to acknowledge both the limitations and sensitivities of terrorism-related data. Some information—such as specific target locations or threat intelligence—cannot be publicly shared due to security concerns. Nonetheless, transparency in describing the general methods, assumptions, and partnerships used to assess terrorism risk would enhance credibility while maintaining confidentiality.

Terrorism can destroy or damage buildings and critical lifelines (power, water/wastewater, transportation, and communications), with impacts dictated by the attack method and proximity to critical nodes.

Acts such as agro-terrorism or hazardous-materials release can contaminate soil, water, or wildlife habitat, and BRADD explicitly notes potential destruction of natural resources under certain attack types.

Intentional acts are designed to cause casualties, widespread fear, and economic disruption; BRADD highlights life-safety risks, psychological effects, and local economic shocks due to reduced participation and interrupted operations.

Climate stressors (e.g., pressures on marginalized populations, aging infrastructure, and periods of civil unrest) may elevate susceptibility to terrorism-related activities, including threats to infrastructure, property, and cyber/economic systems, even though overall climate-driven terrorism risk for the region remains low. 

Logan County’s vulnerability to terrorism is low to moderate, driven primarily by the presence of critical infrastructure, public venues, and transportation corridors rather than high-profile targets. While the probability of a deliberate attack remains low, potential vulnerabilities exist where people, essential services, or high-consequence systems intersect. The concentration of government functions, schools, healthcare facilities, and commercial activity in Russellville—the county’s largest community—creates focal points where disruptions could have widespread impacts. Courthouse facilities, public safety buildings, utilities, and major employers could face operational or economic consequences if targeted directly or indirectly.

Logan County’s industrial and manufacturing facilities add another layer of vulnerability. Sites handling industrial chemicals, food production, or metal fabrication could become targets for sabotage, workplace violence, or cyber disruption. The agricultural sector—including large poultry operations, grain systems, and food-processing facilities—may also be susceptible to intentional contamination, vandalism, or service interruption, with potential ripple effects across regional supply chains.

Transportation corridors such as U.S. 431, U.S. 68/80, and the Russellville Bypass represent soft targets for vehicular attacks, hazardous materials manipulation, or disruptions intended to hinder emergency response or logistics. Cyber vulnerabilities are an increasing concern, especially for utilities, schools, healthcare providers, and local government networks that rely on interconnected digital systems without extensive security staffing.

Populations and facilities most affected by terrorism-related incidents include schools, houses of worship, large employers, public events, and vulnerable congregate populations. Critical infrastructure that sustains daily life—such as electric distribution, water treatment, communications, and emergency services—could experience cascading effects if disrupted.

Overall, Logan County’s vulnerability stems from the intersection of essential services, moderate-density public venues, industrial assets, and digital infrastructure, emphasizing the need for continuity planning, cybersecurity investment, interagency communication, and situational awareness training for public-sector and private-sector partners.

Logan County’s vulnerability to terrorism is low, though certain features—such as industrial operations, transportation routes, and public utilities—represent potential targets for disruption. The City of Russellville functions as a commercial and governmental hub where concentrated activity could heighten exposure. The county benefits from established emergency coordination networks but may face challenges related to rural response times and resource limitations in the event of a coordinated or disruptive act.

Tornado intensity in Logan County typically ranges from EF0 to EF2, though stronger events remain possible. Straight-line winds and severe storms accompanying tornadic systems can produce impacts similar to lower-end tornadoes. Tornadoes can damage homes, manufactured housing, barns, large-span structures, utilities, trees, and vehicles.

From 2000–2025, Logan County experienced 12 tornadoes (≈ 48% chance of at least one tornado in a given year). Since 1950, tornadoes that touched down in the county have caused 23 injuries and 2 deaths. Regional context includes the December 10–11, 2021 outbreak, with multiple long-track and high-end events affecting neighboring counties.

Tornado exposure is countywide and non-spatial at planning scale; consequences concentrate where people and assets are located (e.g., Brownsville, major corridors, and higher-occupancy or vulnerable housing areas such as mobile homes).

The supercell that had cycled down its tornado in eastern Todd County (but continued to produce wind damage northeast of Elkton) spun back up again soon after crossing the border into western Logan County. It quickly ramped up to EF-3 (140 mph) intensity with a damage swath roughly three quarters of a mile wide along Milton Sharp Rd. On the southern side, a family was home when a 2 by 4 narrowly missed the husband as the roof was being peeled off the middle of the house. On the north side, a large dairy farm was completely destroyed.

As the tornado continued northeast, a wide swath of trees was snapped/uprooted along the edge of a forest on the southern edge of the vortex, while on the north edge a well built home had its second floor two-thirds thrown off. A male was in the other section when a 2 by 4 from the first floor came up and got lodged in his mattress. Another well built log cabin in this area lost its second floor roof.

The tornado then turned more ENE in the Buena Vista Rd area. A doublewide manufactured home was completely destroyed here along with several outbuildings on the property. A male at the home received warning from family and heard the tornado approach, getting into a bath tub in the middle of the east side of the structure. After it hit, the home blew into a row of trees and the male remembers grabbing onto a tree southeast of his original location. He sustained injuries as medics had to get wood out of his legs. The tornado continued over to Lakewood Ln where a boy was in the second story of a house when the window imploded inward and moved the bed he was in.

After this, the storm crossed US 431, impacting several trees along Hwy 1040 with EF1 level winds. It then moved to a row of mobile homes along H.C. Johnson Rd. Two of these homes were completely destroyed, with one blown into a row of trees south of its original point and another lifted up and over a tree just east of its original location. This may have been a mesovortex spinning around the main circulation. The tornado damage was widest at this location, roughly 0.8 mile. On the south side of the tornado, a mobile home was completely destroyed along Hwy 915 where it was spread out over the road. The resident was a female whose father insisted she stay the night at his place, with a basement, after hearing the messaging in the days before.

That same mesovortex may have been what caused the collapse of an electric transmission line just east of Marshall Rd where there was little damage to surrounding trees. Farther north on that road a well built brick home had its roof taken off as well as the carport removed. The tornado continued to track along Hwy 79 towards the Chandlers Chapel area where the Methodist Church lost its steeple and had damage to several of the stained glass windows. A couple of homes had major damage here. A resident said he had at least 20 minutes of warning lead time ahead of the touchdown. There was additional damage along Turner Road and then 3 Poplars Rd.

This survey ended soon after 3 Poplars Rd. Another survey was conducted in the far northeast corner of Logan County where a couple of long chicken barns were leveled. Aerial damage surveys also indicated a damage swath that extended into western Warren County for a few miles.

An EF-0 hit the Olmstead community in Logan County. This confirmed tornado was a continuation of a tornadic storm that crossed from Todd County Kentucky to Logan County Kentucky. The tornado first crossed the Todd/Logan county line about a mile south of Allensville around 12:17 PM EST. Small tree limbs were broken along Keysburg Road (KY Route 102). The tornado continued across mostly rural fields before striking a barn along Joe Riley road where major roof damage was observed as well as moderate tree damage. Near this location is where the max wind speeds were observed at 85 mph, or high end EF-0. This rating was changed from a previously reported EF-1 rating due to the nature of surrounding damage observed.

The tornado continued along rural open farm fields before damaging a mix of hard and softwood trees. Some trees had large limbs downed, while others had snapped trunks along Kenny Stratton Road west of Lickskillet. The tornado ended at around 12:21 PM EST along with no further damage observed past Olmstead Road.

An EF-1 tornado hit around the Omstead/Russellville area. This confirmed tornado was a continuation of the parent circulation that caused the tornado southwest of Olmstead KY that crossed the Todd/Logan county line. After a gap of more than 2 miles, the tornado redeveloped and caused damage along Watermelon Road. Minor roof damage occurred near this location. The tornado continued along JB Shackelford Road in mostly rural open farm fields before damage occurred along Johnson Young Road (Route 739). Several trees had large limbs down, and a hardwood tree was uprooted nearby. The strongest damage occurred as a nearby barn was completely demolished with estimated wind speeds at 110 mph for strong EF-1 winds.

The tornado then turned to the northeast causing minor damage to a porch covering at BL Shackelford Road. Damage continued toward Williams Store where significant tree damage occurred with several large trees either snapped or had large branches broken. The tornado then crossed rural areas west of Nashville Road (Highway 431).

At Nashville Road, a barn had roof damage observed with another outbuilding shifted off the foundation. At this point, the tornado appeared to strengthen with consistent damage just north of Ellis Road. A barn had a silo completely destroyed with major damage to 2 other silos, and drone footage confirmed several trees uprooted with branches snapped beyond this barn. The tornado then did some damage along Ellis road with roof damage observed at another barn.

An isolated tree snap occurred near the junction of Franklin Road (route 100) and Airport Road before the tornado crossed rural fields near the Russellville-Logan County Airport. The tornado continued to the northeast with damage observed to the west of Dennis Corinth Road to trees and barns.

BRADD rates overall regional probability for tornadoes as high, based on historical frequency, wind-zone classification, and FEMA definitions. Logan County’s recent history (12 events/25 years) supports an ongoing, recurring likelihood at the county scale.

Tornadoes can damage or destroy homes and businesses, topple transmission and distribution lines, block roads and bridges with debris, and interrupt power, communications, and water/wastewater services.

Tornadoes can fell trees, damage crops and farm structures, degrade habitats, and increase fire risk where dead or downed timber is not removed.

Tornadoes can cause deaths and injuries, trigger temporary but significant economic disruption, and reduce local revenue and productivity during recovery.

While attribution is complex at tornado scale, research indicates fewer “one-tornado” days and more multi-tornado cluster days, linked to increases in days with high CAPE and sufficient vertical wind shear; this implies more days conducive to severe storms—a planning consideration for warning, sheltering, and surge response.

Logan County’s vulnerability to tornadoes is moderate, driven by the prevalence of manufactured homes, older site-built structures, extensive agricultural infrastructure, and concentrations of people and critical facilities in Russellville, Auburn, Adairville, and Lewisburg. Manufactured homes and aging housing stock are particularly susceptible to wind damage, while barns, poultry houses, and grain systems represent significant economic exposure even in lower-intensity tornadoes. Limited access to FEMA-compliant safe rooms, reliance on overhead utilities, and rural road networks that can be easily blocked by debris further increase risk, especially for medically fragile or low-income residents who may lack adequate sheltering options. Gaps in warning coverage and the dispersed rural population elevate life-safety concerns, making tornado preparedness, hardened shelter access, and infrastructure resilience essential priorities for Logan County.

Between 2000 and 2021, Logan County has experienced 7 tornadoes/21years =33% chance of a tornado happening in a given year.

Since 1950, tornadoes that touched down in Logan County have caused 23 injuries and 2 deaths.

Logan County does not contain any census tracts wherein at least 25% of all housing units are mobile homes.

Because of these factors, Logan County experiences moderate vulnerability to tornadoes. Adairville, Auburn, Lewisburg, and Russellville all reflect Logan County’s overall history of tornado events, and therefore experience moderate vulnerability as well.

Extent is characterized by the number and severity of winter storm, heavy snow, and ice storm events (including federally declared disasters). The BRADD region recorded multiple FEMA winter-storm disaster declarations between 2000 and 2020 and 66 reportable winter storm events in that period.

Exposure is countywide (non-spatial at the planning scale), with impacts most evident where people, infrastructure, and travel corridors concentrate (e.g., incorporated cities and major roads).

From 2000–2025, Logan County experienced 20 severe winter storms, including a 2015 winter storm event that caused one individual to lose their life from hypothermia.

Winter storms are an annual occurrence in Logan County, with varying severity. Snow events occur several times each winter, while impactful ice storms occur every 3–7 years, on average. Cold waves with dangerous wind chills occur periodically and may last several days. Climate projections suggest that while average winter temperatures may rise, Kentucky is likely to continue experiencing occasional severe cold outbreaks and high-impact ice events due to increased weather variability. As a result, winter storms remain a high-probability hazard for planning purposes.

Winter storms can damage roofs under snow load, break limbs that fall onto buildings and vehicles, down power lines, and block roads and bridges with snow/ice and debris; even modest icing can disrupt utilities and emergency response.

Extended snow/ice cover can alter habitats and timing of species behavior; out-of-season events can injure or kill vegetation and damage crops and trees.

Hazardous travel, power outages, and isolation elevate risks for households—especially older adults or people with medical needs—while business closures and school disruptions impose community-wide costs.

Changing winter characteristics: warmer winters overall, fewer heavy snowmelt events, more precipitation falling as rain/ice in the Southeast, a lengthening freeze-free season, and related economic and infrastructure stresses—factors that may shift Allen County’s winter risk mix toward icing events and infrastructure sensitivity even as extreme cold snaps still occur.

The table below displays ice storm, winter storms, and heavy snow events that were reported to NOAA and NWS between 2000 and 2020. While not each of these events received a FEMA declaration, each showed clear characteristics of a severe winter storm.

Between 2000 and 2020, NOAA and NWS reported 16 severe winter storms in Logan County.

On average, Logan County has experienced 6 winter storm events/21 years. This equates to a 0.29% chance of a winter storm event in Logan County annually.

In February of 2015, 13 inches of snow accumulated across Logan County.

Because of these factors, Logan County experiences moderate vulnerability to winter storm events. Adairville, Auburn, Lewisburg, and Russellville reflect Logan County’s overall history of winter storms, and therefore experience moderate vulnerability as well.