Hazards in Monroe County

Quality of Dam Infrastructure

The American Society of Civil Engineers gave Kentucky a D+ on dam infrastructure, which is only slightly better than the national average. The average US dam is 60 years old, and most dams in Kentucky are over 50. As of 2019, 80 dams in the state are classified as two-fold risks, meaning that they are both high hazards and in poor or unsatisfactory condition. 47% of these 80 dams received that rating partially because they cannot hold enough rain during catastrophic storms. 89% of high hazard dams in Kentucky do not have complete emergency action plans on file with the state. 74% have simplified draft plans, but these are not widely shared and have not been adopted by local officials.

Types of Dam Failure

There are three types of Dam Failure:

1. Structural: This common cause is responsible for nearly 30% of all dam failure in the United States. Structural failure of a dam occurs when there is a rupture in the dam or its foundation.
2. Mechanical: Refers to the failure or malfunctioning of gates, conduits, or valves.
3. Hydraulic: Occurs when the uncontrolled flow of water over the top, around, and adjacent to the dam erodes its foundation. Hydraulic failure is the cause of approximately 34% of all dam failures.

The extent of potential dam failure impacts in Monroe County varies depending on the size, location, and storage capacity of local impoundments. Most dams in the county are small, privately owned agricultural or recreational structures, with limited inundation extent and primarily localized downstream effects. However, several larger impoundments—particularly those associated with flood-control, farm ponds, and recreational lakes—have the capacity to generate rapid, high-velocity downstream flooding if a breach were to occur. Potential impacts include inundation of rural roadways, erosion of creek channels, loss of agricultural land, and structural damage to homes or farm facilities located within narrow valleys. The county’s karst terrain can also exacerbate failure mechanisms, as subsurface voids or seepage may undermine embankments, increasing the potential severity of a breach.

History of Dam Failure

According to the National Performance of Dams Program (NPDP), which tracks failures of dams included in the National Inventory of Dams, no recorded dam failures have occurred in Monroe County. Similarly, regional records across BRADD indicate no significant historical dam failures within the county boundary. While no major failures have been documented, Monroe County has experienced isolated incidents of dam-related concerns, such as overtopping during high-intensity rainfall, culvert washouts below small embankments, and spillway erosion following prolonged wet conditions. These events highlight the county’s vulnerability to localized structural stress, particularly among older, privately maintained dams that may lack engineering design, formal inspection, or routine maintenance.

Overall, while Monroe County has not experienced a documented catastrophic dam failure, its landscape, concentration of small agricultural dams, and susceptibility to extreme rainfall events underscore the importance of ongoing monitoring, owner education, and maintenance to minimize future risk.

Probability

The probability of dam failure in Monroe County is considered low, reflecting the absence of documented historical failures and the relatively small size of most local impoundments. The majority of dams in the county are privately owned agricultural or recreational structures with limited storage capacity and short downstream travel distances, which reduces the likelihood of catastrophic failure. However, localized risks remain. Periods of intense rainfall, prolonged saturation, or rapid runoff—all increasingly common under regional climate trends—can increase hydraulic pressure, cause overtopping, or accelerate spillway erosion, raising the likelihood of partial breaches or structural degradation. Additionally, because many small dams lack formal inspection regimes or engineered spillways, the probability of minor structural issues is higher during severe weather. Although large-scale dam failures are unlikely, the county may continue to experience isolated overtopping, embankment erosion, or spillway malfunction during major precipitation events.

Built Environment:

A breach can produce rapid inundation that damages or destroys buildings, blocks roads with debris, disrupts traffic and emergency services, and threatens water/wastewater systems—especially if a reservoir supplies drinking water.

Natural Environment:

Floodwaves can scour channels, mobilize debris and contaminants, and disrupt aquatic habitats and riparian systems.

Social Environment:

Fast-arriving floodwaters elevate life-safety risk, particularly for people living/working in low-lying downstream areas with limited warning or evacuation options.

Climate Impacts on Dam Failure:

Increasingly intense rainfall, longer wet periods, and more frequent extreme storm events can raise hydraulic loading on dams, heighten the risk of overtopping, accelerate erosion of embankments and spillways, and reduce warning/response time. Climate-driven shifts can also stress aging infrastructure and complicate reservoir operations (e.g., balancing flood control with drought storage), making proactive maintenance, updated hydrologic/hydraulic studies, and EAP exercises even more critical.

Monroe County’s vulnerability to dam failure is generally low, but localized areas downstream of small agricultural and recreational impoundments face elevated risk, particularly in narrow creek valleys along Skaggs Creek, Meshack Creek, and other tributaries. Vulnerability is heightened where dams are privately owned, aging, or lack routine maintenance, and in rural areas where residents may have limited access to timely warnings. Risk in Monroe County is elevated relative to the region due to the presence of Mill Creek MPS 4, a High Hazard (C) dam, and the potential downstream influence of Wolf Creek Dam, which—although located outside BRADD—could impact eastern Monroe County in an extreme failure scenario. Homes, farms, roads, and utilities in downstream areas may be susceptible to rapid flooding, erosion, and debris movement, underscoring the need for robust alerting and evacuation coordination, consequence-based drills, and continued monitoring of high-hazard structures.

Risk is elevated relative to the region: Mill Creek MPS 4 is classified as a High Hazard (C) dam, and Wolf Creek Dam, while outside BRADD, could impact eastern Monroe County if it failed. Downstream communities, roads, and utilities require robust alerting/evacuation coordination and consequence-based drills.

Location/Extent

In Monroe County, drought extent is typically countywide, with impacts varying by soils, crop types, and water sources. Agricultural impacts (forage stress, reduced yields) are the most common, while potable water impacts are generally less frequent but possible during prolonged deficits or high summer demand.

Sensitivity is elevated for row-crop and pasture lands, small public water systems or systems with leakage/limited storage, and surface-water/groundwater users lacking redundant sources. BRADD’s Water System Vulnerability to Drought resource further highlights system-level considerations for the region.

Past Events

Drought affects the entirety of Monroe County, with especially significant consequences in rural agricultural areas that rely on dependable irrigation and livestock water. During extended dry periods, Barren River Lake levels can drop, affecting recreation and municipal supply. Historical droughts have driven soil-moisture deficits exceeding ~50% and reduced viability of staple crops such as corn and soybeans.

Notable events include the 2012 drought, when much of Kentucky—including Monroe County—reached D3 (Extreme Drought) on the U.S. Drought Monitor, with widespread agricultural losses, elevated fire risk, and water shortages. From 2000–2025, Monroe County experienced ~55 weeks of D2 (Moderate) and ~14 weeks of D3 (Severe/Extreme) drought; USDA issued drought disaster declarations in 2022 and 2023 for documented production losses.

Probability

Long-term monitoring indicates drought is a recurrent hazard. Monroe County experienced 632 total weeks of drought over the last 25 years—about a 48% chance that any given week features drought conditions. Projections suggest drought likelihood may increase with climate change as rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns extend dry periods.

Built Environment:

Lower reservoir and well levels can strain municipal water systems, increase infrastructure operating costs (e.g., pumping/energy), and trigger usage restrictions for businesses and institutions; prolonged deficits can reduce fire-flow availability for rural systems.

Natural Environment:

Drought reduces streamflow and aquatic habitat quality, stresses forests and grasslands, and can degrade water quality as lower volumes concentrate pollutants.

Social Environment:

The largest local effects are economic losses in agriculture (crop failures, livestock stress, higher irrigation costs) and secondary risks such as increased wildfire potential; households and small businesses can face water shortages and higher costs.

Climate Impacts on Dam Failure:

Rising temperatures increase evapotranspiration and soil‐moisture loss, while shifting precipitation patterns can produce longer dry spells punctuated by intense storms that do little to recharge groundwater. Hotter summers elevate water demand, stress crops and livestock, worsen algal blooms and other water-quality issues in low flows, and compound risks when heat waves coincide with drought—intensifying health, agricultural, and infrastructure impacts across Barren County.

Drought Vulnerability in the BRADD Region

Soil Susceptibility

Soil’s susceptibility to drought varies due to a myriad of factors. The map below depicts vulnerability to drought based on soil type from a moisture retention and availability perspective. For example a shallow fragipan limits the depth of the soil making it more vulnerable to moisture loss. Grey areas indicate that no soil data was available due to lakes, heavily urbanized areas, or strip mining. Susceptibility to Drought Scores were established using the criteria of infiltration, water movement, and water supply for the soils defined in the NRCS Soil Surveys that encompass the state.

Monroe County’s vulnerability to drought is low to moderate, influenced by its agricultural economy, groundwater-dependent rural households, and variable soil conditions. While livestock and crop operations may experience stress during extended dry periods, the public water system demonstrates low vulnerability, with adequate supply and system resilience to withstand seasonal drought. Soil susceptibility mapping indicates that most of the county exhibits low drought susceptibility, though the eastern portion shows moderately high susceptibility, which can affect pasture quality, crop yields, and water availability for private wells. Social vulnerability remains limited but present among smaller farms and households with fewer resources to manage prolonged dryness. Because drought is a non-spatial hazard, these vulnerability characteristics apply broadly across the county, including the City of Tompkinsville, which shares similar exposure and resilience factors.

Monroe County’s public water system demonstrates low vulnerability to drought.

The soil susceptibility map indicates that the majority of Monroe County’s soil experiences low susceptibility to drought. However, the eastern side of the county does have a moderately high susceptibility to drought.

Overall, Monroe County has a low to moderate vulnerability to drought. Because drought is a non-spatial hazard, this same analysis can be applied to its respective city, Tompkinsville.

Location/Extent

Kentucky is affected by nearby seismic zones—New Madrid (most active east of the Rockies) and Wabash Valley (capable of M5.5–6.0 damage near population centers). Potential shaking in Butler County ranges from weak/noticeable (MMI II–IV) during distant events to light–moderate (MMI V–VI) in rarer, larger scenarios; secondary effects can include nonstructural damage, minor slope instability, and utility disruptions. The eastern U.S. crust transmits shaking efficiently, so distant earthquakes can be widely felt.

Severity is commonly expressed by earthquake magnitude and by shaking intensity (Modified Mercalli Scale). Butler County’s worst-case consequences depend on regional event size/distance and local amplification/liquefaction potential.

Past Events

BRADD records indicate few locally recorded seismic events within the district and none historically ≥M3 in Monroe County, although neighboring counties have experienced minor earthquakes. Regionally, occasional felt events originate from the Eastern Tennessee Seismic Zone (ETSZ) and the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone (WVSZ), both of which can transmit low-level shaking into south-central Kentucky. The historic 1811–1812 New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) earthquakes produced strong shaking across Kentucky, demonstrating the region’s susceptibility to long-range seismic impacts. More recent felt events in the central and eastern United States continue to show that even moderate earthquakes can be widely felt due to the efficient energy transmission of eastern U.S. geology.

Probability

The probability of a damaging earthquake in Monroe County is considered low, though not negligible, due to its position between several regional seismic zones. While no earthquakes ≥M3 have been recorded in the county, Monroe lies within the influence of the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) to the west, the Eastern Tennessee Seismic Zone (ETSZ) to the southeast, and the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone (WVSZ) to the north. These zones periodically generate small to moderate earthquakes that may be felt locally. Although a strong, locally centered event is unlikely, long-range shaking from moderate to major regional earthquakes remains possible, and eastern U.S. geology allows seismic waves to travel efficiently over long distances. As a result, Monroe County could experience low to moderate intensity shaking several times over a multi-decade planning horizon, particularly from ETSZ activity.

An earthquake could result in structural damage to older buildings, critical facilities, and infrastructure not designed to modern seismic codes. Bridges, utilities, and water systems could sustain significant damage, leading to service disruptions. Secondary impacts might include landslides in certain areas, hazardous material spills, and challenges in emergency response due to blocked roads and damaged communication systems. Economic losses could be substantial, particularly for uninsured property owners.

Built Environment:

Shaking can damage homes and business structures, collapse unreinforced elements, and disrupt roads/bridges, power, water/wastewater, and telecom. Post-event debris and utility outages can hinder emergency response.

Natural Environment:

Secondary effects—liquefaction, landslides, fires, and hazmat releases—can degrade soils, waterways, and habitats.

Social Environment:

Transportation disruption, hospital surge, power/water interruptions, and communications overload elevate life-safety risk and complicate reunification and care for vulnerable groups (children, older adults, LEP populations).

Climate Impacts on Earthquakes:

While climate change does not drive tectonic earthquakes, hydrologic extremes (prolonged drought, heavy precipitation, groundwater withdrawal/recharge) may alter subsurface stresses in limited contexts. The BRADD region has an overall low earthquake risk, so any climate influence on local frequency/severity is likely minor relative to tectonic controls.

Earthquake Vulnerability in Allen County

Monroe County is mapped within a moderate perceived shaking zone for high-magnitude regional earthquake scenarios due to its proximity to the New Madrid, Eastern Tennessee, and Wabash Valley seismic zones, even though it lacks significant local faulting. Because earthquakes are non-spatial at the county scale, this vulnerability characterization applies countywide, including Tompkinsville, Gamaliel, and all unincorporated communities. Key sensitivity factors include older or unretrofitted buildings, unreinforced masonry structures, and critical facilities, bridges, and lifeline infrastructure located on softer soils or in areas where karst conditions could amplify shaking or contribute to differential settlement.

Monroe County’s vulnerability to earthquakes is generally low to low-moderate, shaped by a mix of older structures, critical facilities, and dispersed rural development. Older homes, unreinforced masonry buildings in Tompkinsville, and aging commercial structures are more susceptible to damage from even modest shaking. Manufactured housing—common in rural areas—may also be vulnerable due to limited anchoring or structural bracing. Critical infrastructure, including waterlines, gas lines, electrical distribution systems, and roadway bridges, may experience service disruptions or minor structural impacts during regional seismic events, particularly in areas underlain by karst where soil settlement can amplify ground motion effects. Social vulnerability is higher among residents living in older or lower-income housing, who may have fewer resources to recover from structural damage. Although catastrophic impacts are unlikely, Monroe County remains susceptible to distributed, localized damage in the event of moderate shaking from surrounding seismic zones.

Monroe County is within the “light” perceived shaking zone for a high magnitude earthquake and does not contain significant fault lines.

Because of these factors, Monroe County experiences low vulnerability to earthquakes. Because earthquakes are non-spatial hazards, it can be assumed that this analysis should be applied to Monroe County’s respective cities – Fountain Run, Gamaliel, and Tompkinsville.

Location/Extent

Location and Extent

Heat and cold exposures are countywide; heat impacts are often greatest in small urbanized pockets (Fountain Run, Gamaliel, and Tompkinsville) where warm nights limit recovery, while cold risk peaks in exposed rural areas and along open river valleys.

Historical Occurrences

In recent history, Monroe County has experienced notable extreme temperature events. The 2012 heat wave resulted in numerous heat advisories and elevated heat-related hospital visits across the region. Similarly, the January 2014 polar vortex brought record-breaking low temperatures to the area, causing widespread pipe bursts and heating system failures.

Probability

Expect recurrent heat seasons with periodic advisory/warning episodes and less frequent but hazardous cold outbreaks. While year-to-year frequency varies, local planning should assume annual heat advisories are likely, with occasional excessive-heat warnings, and intermittent extreme-cold events in some winters.

Extreme heat can lead to heat exhaustion and heatstroke, particularly in outdoor workers, the elderly, and low-income households without access to cooling. It also increases energy demand, raising utility costs and the likelihood of power outages. Severe cold poses risks of frostbite, hypothermia, and infrastructure damage, including frozen pipes and malfunctioning heating systems. Both extremes can disrupt agricultural yields, livestock health, and local economies.

Built Environment:

Cold can burst buried water pipes, strain metal bridge members, and affect trucking/rail operations (e.g., diesel gelling). Heat can soften asphalt, stress vehicle cooling systems and rail operations, and increase water demand, sometimes reducing fire-flow availability.

Natural Environment:

Cold snaps threaten livestock and wildlife and can freeze ponds/streams. Heat can degrade water quality, drive algal blooms, and reduce crop yields and dairy productivity.

Social Environment:

Cold elevates exposure risks for people without adequate shelter or heat and can increase CO poisoning and fire risk; both cold and heat create economic losses (e.g., utility repair, agriculture) and can trigger business/school closures. Heat is the leading U.S. weather-related killer, with illnesses from fatigue to heat stroke.

Climate Impacts on Extreme Temperatures:

Climate change models predict and increase in overall temperature globally for the coming decades, including the BRADD region. With a potential rise of several degrees Fahrenheit, multiple services, systems, and activities face disruption and impact. Temperature increases this small may not seem threatening, but the cumulative impacts will affect weather events, human health, and ecosystem functions, along with economic and social issues related to energy use and cost of living.

Working with  AT&T’s Climate Resilient Communities Program and the  Climate Risk and Resilience (ClimRR) Portal, BRADD identified additional opportunities for hazard mitigation action items associated with climate impacts for Extreme Temperatures in the Barren River Region. To view an interactive report of these findings,   click here.

Monroe County’s vulnerability concentrates in small urban areas such as Tompkinsville and Gamaliel and among heat- and cold-sensitive populations, including older adults, low-income households without efficient cooling or weatherization, outdoor workers, and individuals with chronic health conditions. Rural residents relying on private wells, space heaters, or older HVAC systems may face increased risk during power outages, which can exacerbate both extreme heat and winter cold exposure. Schools, long-term care facilities, medical clinics, and other congregate settings experience operational challenges during prolonged periods of extreme heat—especially when nighttime temperatures remain high—and during winter storms that cause ice-related power loss. These outages can quickly escalate risk for residents with limited mobility, medical dependencies, or insufficient backup heat. Priority mitigation needs include index-based action triggers, accessible cooling and warming centers with transportation support, enhanced backup power capacity for critical facilities, improved water-system resilience (pressure stabilization, storage, leak control), and targeted outreach to vulnerable households during extreme temperature alerts.

Since 2010, Monroe County experienced one wind chill watch (2014) and one wind chill warning (2015).

Because of these factors, Monroe County experiences moderate vulnerability to extreme cold events. Fountain Run, Gamaliel, and Tomkinsville reflect Monroe County’s overall history of extreme cold, and therefore, experience high vulnerability as well.

On average, Monroe County experienced 24 extreme heat days per year between 2010 and 2016.

Because of these factors, Monroe County experiences moderate vulnerability to extreme heat events. Fountain Run, Gamaliel, and Tompkinsville reflect Monroe County’s overall history of extreme heat, and therefore experience moderate vulnerability as well.

Flood-prone areas in Monroe County include low-lying and creek-adjacent locations along Skaggs Creek, Meshack Creek, Mill Creek, Indian Creek, and the Barren River, as well as numerous rural road crossings and agricultural lands situated within narrow valleys and broad floodplains. The First Street Foundation estimates that approximately 8–10% of properties in Monroe County have at least a 1-in-4 chance of flood damage over the next 30 years, with potential flood depths exceeding two to three feet in areas with limited elevation, ponding issues, or inadequate drainage. Climate Risk and Resilience Portal (ClimRR) projections indicate a 5–10% increase in annual days with extreme precipitation (greater than one inch per day) by mid-century under moderate-emissions scenarios, signaling a rising likelihood of flash flooding, particularly during spring and summer storm seasons.

Repetitive-loss (RL) and severe repetitive-loss (SRL) properties within Monroe County are limited. The unincorporated county currently contains one (1) single-family property classified as Repetitive-Loss under National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) definitions; this property does not meet Severe Repetitive-Loss thresholds under either NFIP or Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) criteria. The City of Tompkinsville, City of Fountain Run, and the City of Gamaliel each have zero (0) recorded RL or SRL properties under both NFIP and FMA definitions.

These data indicate that while Monroe County’s flood exposure is concentrated along its creek corridors and low-lying agricultural basins, its overall number of repetitive-loss structures remains low relative to regional totals. However, as extreme rainfall events become more frequent, continued investments in drainage improvements, culvert upsizing, structure elevation, voluntary acquisition where feasible, and strict NFIP compliance will remain essential to reducing future flood losses and improving long-term resilience.

Monroe County experienced 14 flood events over 20 years (~.7 events/year). This places Monroe in the mid-range of regional flood frequency.

Exposure in Monroe County is countywide, with riverine flooding along the Barren River and creek-based flooding along Skaggs Creek, Meshack Creek, Mill Creek, Indian Creek, and their tributaries. Flash flooding is common in small headwater basins, narrow valleys, and at rural road crossings where culverts or dips can quickly become overwhelmed during intense rainfall. Urban and poor-drainage flooding occurs within the City of Tompkinsville, the City of Fountain Run, the City of Gamaliel, and in low-lying developed areas throughout the county where stormwater infrastructure is limited or aging. Although Monroe County lacks the extensive karst concentrations found in some eastern BRADD counties, sinkholes, karst windows, and losing streams are still present in upland areas and can concentrate stormwater, creating conditions for rapid, localized inundation when drainage pathways are obstructed or soils become saturated.

Click Here to view a summary of all past Disaster Declarations in the BRADD Region.

Below you will find a listing of past NOAA Flood and Flash-Flood Events from 2000-2020 for Monroe County.

The probability of flooding in Monroe County is assessed as high, with both flash flooding and creek-based flooding expected to occur on a recurring basis. Historical patterns—including events in 2010, 2019, 2021, and multiple high-intensity storm seasons—demonstrate that the county experiences flood impacts several times per decade, particularly during late winter, spring, and early summer when rainfall totals are elevated and soils are saturated. ClimRR projections of a 5–10% increase in extreme precipitation days by mid-century indicate that the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events are likely to rise, increasing the probability of flash flooding in headwater basins and low-lying road corridors.

Flash flooding is the most probable type of event, especially in narrow valleys, small watershed basins, and rural crossings where undersized culverts or dips can be overtopped rapidly. Creek-based flooding along Skaggs Creek, Meshack Creek, Mill Creek, and Indian Creek is also expected to recur, typically following multi-day rainfall or backwater effects near confluences. Localized ponding and drainage issues remain likely in Tompkinsville and Gamaliel during high-intensity storms. Overall, Monroe County is expected to experience multiple minor flood events per decade, with localized flash flooding possible multiple times per year under extreme rainfall conditions.

Extreme heat can lead to heat exhaustion and heatstroke, particularly in outdoor workers, the elderly, and low-income households without access to cooling. It also increases energy demand, raising utility costs and the likelihood of power outages. Severe cold poses risks of frostbite, hypothermia, and infrastructure damage, including frozen pipes and malfunctioning heating systems. Both extremes can disrupt agricultural yields, livestock health, and local economies.

Built Environment:

Flooding can cause structural damage to both residential and commercial buildings and destroy furnishing and inventory.
Flooding will causes inconvenience or stoppage to many system. Transportation systems such as roads and railways become unpassable. Large amounts of water from a flood can affect water management systems such as the backup or hiatus of drainage, sanitary, and sewer systems. As heavy rains persist during a flood event, excess water drains into the ground water system. This causes the water table to rise and cause further ground water floods. If chemicals are mixed with flood waters, this can contaminate the ground water, a common source of fresh water for communities.

Natural Environment:

As flood waters engulf the surrounding natural environment, they are saturated with chemicals and other substances associated with the manmade environment that they have also been in contact with. As these abnormal waters settle and flows through natural ecosystems they can alter and even destroy both plant and animal life. When the flow of flood waters becomes so immense, it can physically destroy or uproot naturally growing vegetation and also drive specific species of animals out of their natural habitats for good.

Social Environment:

People
People with property located in the floodplain or within areas subject to seepage are vulnerable to flooding. Stoppage to transportation systems can make it very difficult for isolated populations to receive aid or escape breeching flood waters. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly or people who need medical attention, may be temporarily cut off from accessing life-saving resources.

Economy
Floods can affect local economies by disrupting transportation systems needed for people to get to and from work and destroying places of business and means of production. When flooding occurs in more rural areas, livestock and agricultural system will be affected. Crops can be destroyed in the growing season, or prevent from seeding in the off season. Large insurance payouts to residents or business owners who have procured flood insurance might also have an economic impact.

Climate Impacts on Flooding:

Climate change models predict and increase in overall temperature globally for the coming decades, including the BRADD region. With a potential rise of several degrees Fahrenheit, multiple services, systems, and activities face disruption and impact. Temperature increases this small may not seem threatening, but the cumulative impacts will affect weather events, human health, and ecosystem functions, along with economic and social issues related to energy use and cost of living.

Working with  AT&T’s Climate Resilient Communities Program and the  Climate Risk and Resilience (ClimRR) Portal, BRADD identified additional opportunities for hazard mitigation action items associated with climate impacts for flooding in the Barren River Region. To view an interactive report of these findings,   click here.

Monroe County’s vulnerability to flooding is moderate, shaped by its rolling terrain, narrow creek valleys, rural transportation network, and pockets of development located near waterways and drainage-limited areas. The built environment is most vulnerable in and around Tompkinsville and Gamaliel, where older neighborhoods, aging stormwater systems, and low-lying commercial areas can experience repeated drainage issues. Rural homes and farm structures situated near creek corridors, low-water crossings, and small hollows face heightened exposure due to fast-moving floodwaters and limited elevation above grade. Manufactured housing—common in rural areas—faces increased structural vulnerability to flood damage and erosion.

Critical infrastructure—including rural roadways, small bridges, culverts, waterlines, and utility corridors—is sensitive to washouts, overtopping, or debris blockages during high-flow events. Multiple county roads run adjacent to or directly across flood-prone creeks, creating recurring transportation disruptions. Agricultural operations are also vulnerable, with risks to pastureland, row crops, fencing, livestock access, and soil stability during saturated or flooded conditions. Natural environments—including riparian corridors—may experience erosion, sedimentation, and habitat disturbance.

Social vulnerability is elevated among low-income households, older adults, and residents relying on private wells or aging structures, who may face barriers to recovery or relocation. Because several flood-prone areas are isolated and rural, emergency response and evacuation can be challenging during rapid-onset flash flooding. Overall, Monroe County’s mix of rural infrastructure, creek-adjacent development, and climate-driven increases in heavy rainfall contributes to persistent, localized flood vulnerability across the county.

Between 2000 and 2020, Monroe County has had 14 flood events.

Metcalfe County has received FEMA Disaster Declarations as a result of flooding in 2003, 2004, 2010, 2011, and 2020 (2).

Overall, Monroe County experiences high vulnerability to flood events. The risk for Monroe County’s cities is analyzed below.

The City of Fountain Run has had one historic occurrence of flood and flash-flood events since 2000. Its vulnerability is low.

The City of Gamaliel has had one historic occurrence of flood and flash-flood events since 2000. Its vulnerability is low.

The City of Tompkinsville has had four historic occurrences of flood and flash-flood events since 2000. Its vulnerability is low.

The extent of a hazardous materials release is characterized by the type of substance, quantity released, state (gas, liquid, solid), dispersion behavior, and weather/terrain conditions. Releases may be constrained and local (e.g. a leaking drum or tank) or large and far-reaching (e.g. vapors spreading over multiple miles, groundwater contamination migrating). Depending on the chemical’s toxicity, volatility, and persistence, an incident could produce acute health effects, long-term environmental harm, or chronic exposure zones. In the BRADD region, credible scenarios include a small spill alongside a highway, a rail car release near populated areas, or a storage tank failure, each producing different spatial footprints and hazard zones.

The BRADD region has a record of hazardous materials incidents, particularly associated with transportation and industrial operations. Kentucky has experienced several costly hazmat transit incidents in recent years. In rail transport, derailments involving chemical cargo have spurred evacuations and environmental response. For example, in 2007, a major derailment in Kentucky released hazardous materials and required area evacuation. Nationally and regionally, chemical spills from industrial plants have caused injury, property damage, and remediation efforts. Some incidents, such as the 1981 Louisville sewer explosions (driven by hexane vapors in sewer lines), illustrate how improper chemical disposal can lead to infrastructure destruction. These past events highlight the potential for both acute and lingering impacts of hazardous material releases.

The probability of a hazardous materials incident in Monroe County is considered moderate, reflecting a combination of transportation-related risks and smaller-scale fixed facilities. Most past releases in the region have been localized and minor, typically involving fuel spills, agricultural chemicals, or transportation accidents. Monroe County’s reliance on key travel routes—KY 63, KY 100, KY 163, and other freight and farm-to-market corridors—creates steady exposure to hazardous materials transport, particularly gasoline, diesel, propane, and agricultural chemicals. Although the county does not host large industrial chemical manufacturers, bulk fuel storage, farm chemical suppliers, and commercial facilities contribute to baseline risk. Natural hazards such as severe storms, flooding, or vehicle crashes on rural roads may trigger secondary releases from tanks, containers, or overturned vehicles. Overall, while large-scale releases are unlikely, the combination of freight movement, agricultural chemical use, and dispersed storage sites supports a moderate probability of future hazardous materials incidents.

Hazardous materials releases can produce widespread and cascading effects across built, natural, and social environments.

Built Environment:

Buildings are vulnerable to a hazardous materials spill. The combination of fire, water, and chemicals could result in an explosion that is likely to damage both the buildings storing hazardous materials and the area surrounding the storage area. Proper storage and handling of these chemicals is critical in decreasing built environment vulnerability. A hazardous materials spill anywhere along the Barren River Region’s transportation network will have an immediate impact on travel time and delays. Municipal water systems and storm water drainage systems are vulnerable to a toxic spill. Chemicals that reach the water system could limit the supply of potable water.

Natural Environment:

Factors contributing to the vulnerability of natural systems are the type of chemical spilled the physical state of the chemical, the amount released, and the location of the incident. Vulnerability of the natural environment to hazardous materials events is higher for species and ecosystems in the immediate vicinity of the event, and moderate for those located downstream.

Social Environment:

People
A hazardous material spill could isolate parts of the region from critical facilities. Mobility impaired persons would be vulnerable to a spill or vapor release that requires immediate evacuation. Similarly, people with hearing or sight impairments may require special notification if the standard announcements are not available. Children with respiratory problems are at a higher risk of vulnerability to chemical vapors. Elderly with mobility impairments or compromised immune systems may suffer greater injuries in the case of a hazardous material release. Low-income residents are more likely to reside in closer proximity to hazardous facilities than wealthier counterparts. If displaced by a hazardous materials spill, limited income residents may face additional hardship.
Economy
Cost of replacing damaged property; a spill at a fixed facility , may cause temporary or permanent closure

Climate Impacts on Hazardous Material Spills:

As climate change impacts other sectors and hazards, such as increased severe storms, heat waves, and flooding, there is a chance that hazardous materials will become more unstable due to potential disasters. During flood events, materials may be spilled or introduced into waterways and severe wind or winter storms may cause the spillage of materials during vehicular accidents or building and infrastructure damage. Sinkhole openings may introduce hazardous materials into the groundwater system. An increased use in hazardous materials may also occur as part of other mitigation and adaptation activities, such as development, and may increase the exposure for these impacts to occur.

This hazard presents a moderate risk to Allen County, due to the large amount of manufacturing and development, sensitive groundwater and surface water resources, and the probability for severe events to occur.

Potential impacts include:

• increase spillage of hazardous materials
• more frequent transport and storage of hazardous materials
• threat to environmental and human health during a spill or contamination event
• threat from exposure during increased use to mitigate other impacts
• threat to infrastructure during a spill or other event
• economic loss from cleanup or health impacts

Monroe County’s vulnerability to hazardous materials incidents is moderate, shaped by its rural transportation network, agricultural economy, and distribution of sensitive populations. The built environment is most vulnerable along major road corridors—KY 63, KY 100, KY 163, and through the City of Tompkinsville—where any spill or chemical release could affect nearby homes, businesses, and critical facilities. Agricultural operations are at particular risk from pesticide, fertilizer, and fuel-related releases, which can contaminate soils, livestock areas, or surface water. Monroe County’s karst terrain heightens environmental vulnerability, as spills can quickly enter sinkholes, springs, and groundwater, accelerating contamination pathways.

Critical infrastructure, including water systems, utilities, rural schools, and medical facilities, may face operational disruptions if located near transport corridors or affected by airborne or waterborne contaminants. Social vulnerability is elevated among older adults, low-income households, and residents in rural areas who may have limited access to rapid communication, transportation during evacuations, or specialized medical care. Emergency response challenges—such as longer travel times for rural fire and EMS units and limited local hazmat resources—further increase vulnerability during significant events. Overall, Monroe County’s transportation patterns, karst environment, and dispersed population contribute to localized but meaningful vulnerability to hazardous materials incidents.

Monroe County faces modest but regionally significant vulnerability due to its cross-border transport links with Tennessee and local fuel distribution operations. The county’s primary risks stem from tanker traffic, agricultural chemical storage, and small industrial sites in Tompkinsville. Its rural character limits exposure density but also constrains response capacity. Karst and well-water reliance amplify the importance of groundwater protection.

Emerging infectious disease (EID) outbreaks can range from small, localized clusters to countywide or multi-county epidemics, depending on the pathogen’s transmissibility (e.g., R₀), incubation/asymptomatic period, mode of transmission (airborne, droplet, contact, vector, food/water), clinical severity, and availability of countermeasures (vaccines/antivirals). Severity is often expressed through combinations of attack rate, hospitalization and ICU utilization, case fatality ratio, and the duration/number of waves, which together determine stress on healthcare, schools, businesses, and critical services. FEMA’s planning policy expects plans to describe a hazard’s type, location, and extent and to include previous occurrences and the probability of future events; for EIDs, this typically means using qualitative scales (e.g., low/moderate/high) informed by public-health surveillance and scenario analysis.

Monroe County’s EID context mirrors the region and state: 2009 H1N1 influenza produced widespread illness and vaccination campaigns; COVID-19 (2020–2022) caused repeated surges, remote learning periods, healthcare strain, and workforce disruptions across south-central Kentucky, with lingering recovery needs. At smaller scales, seasonal influenza, gastrointestinal outbreaks, hepatitis A, and tick-borne illnesses recur and periodically challenge local public-health capacity. For hazard-mitigation purposes, these events document that infectious hazards are recurring and can escalate quickly, even when initial clusters are small.

EIDs are non-spatial at the county scale: exposure is countywide and follows human activity patterns. Transmission risk is elevated where people congregate or where mobility is high, including schools and childcare sites, long-term care and healthcare facilities, workplaces and distribution/logistics hubs, correctional settings, places of worship, and events/venues. Vulnerability may be higher for neighborhoods with older adults, people with chronic conditions, uninsured/under-insured residents, or limited access to primary care, and for settings with shared housing or limited ventilation.

The probability of emerging infectious disease (EID) activity in Monroe County is ongoing and recurrent, though severity varies by pathogen. Routine outbreaks (e.g., novel respiratory viruses, GI pathogens) should be expected annually to every few years, with countywide transmission most likely during school terms, peak respiratory seasons, and periods of high mobility. The likelihood of a significant EID event (i.e., one that stresses healthcare and disrupts schools/workplaces) over a typical 5–10-year planning horizon is moderate, driven by regional travel corridors, congregate settings (schools, long-term care, workplaces), and periodic introductions from outside the region. Probability increases with factors such as low vaccination/booster uptake, limited access to primary care, and delayed detection, and decreases with strong surveillance, rapid testing, vaccination campaigns, and effective risk communication. Climate-related stressors (e.g., hotter summers, air-quality episodes, shifting vectors) can indirectly elevate transmission risk for certain diseases by increasing indoor crowding or extending vector seasons, but the dominant drivers for EIDs in Monroe County remain human mixing patterns, healthcare capacity, and public-health interventions.

Impact

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) can trigger cascading consequences across systems even when case counts are moderate, because illness, isolation, and precautionary measures disrupt people, places, and services simultaneously. Direct health impacts (morbidity, mortality) are compounded by workforce absenteeism, supply-chain delays, and surges on healthcare and public health operations. The breadth of consequences depends on the pathogen’s transmissibility and severity, the speed of detection, and the availability of countermeasures (testing, treatment, vaccination) and risk communication.

Built Environment

EIDs strain the built environment indirectly by stressing the facilities and systems people operate. Hospitals, clinics, EMS stations, and pharmacies can exceed functional capacity, requiring surge spaces and changes to ventilation and patient flow. Public buildings, schools, and workplaces may need operational adjustments (enhanced cleaning, spacing, HVAC improvements), and staffing gaps can delay maintenance for roads, utilities, and public facilities. Supply-chain disruptions can slow construction projects and limit availability of critical parts for water/wastewater, transportation, and communications systems.

Natural Environment

While EIDs primarily affect human systems, response activities can influence the environment. Increased use of medical disposables and disinfectants elevates medical and solid-waste volumes, requiring proper handling to avoid secondary environmental impacts. Wastewater surveillance—often deployed for EIDs—integrates environmental sampling into public health practice and necessitates careful lab and sampling protocols. Changes in human activity (e.g., reduced travel) may temporarily alter local air quality and traffic-related emissions.

Social Environment

EIDs most strongly affect the social environment. Illness, isolation, and caregiving responsibilities reduce workforce availability, interrupt schooling and childcare, and strain household finances—especially for hourly and small-business workers. Behavioral-health needs rise due to stress, grief, and prolonged uncertainty, while misinformation can erode trust and complicate protective actions. Impacts are disproportionate for older adults, people with chronic conditions, low-income and uninsured residents, and those in congregate or high-exposure settings (schools, long-term care, logistics and retail).

Climate Impacts on EID

Climate does not directly “cause” EIDs, but it can shape risk conditions. Hotter summers and poor air-quality days can drive indoor crowding, increasing transmission opportunities for respiratory pathogens. Shifts in precipitation and temperature can extend vector seasons (ticks, mosquitoes) and alter wildlife–human interfaces that enable zoonotic spillover. Climate stress on infrastructure and households (e.g., heat waves, severe storms) can also complicate access to care and continuity of operations, amplifying the consequences of an outbreak when it coincides with other hazards.

Monroe County’s vulnerability to emerging infectious diseases is moderate, shaped by its population distribution, healthcare access, workforce patterns, and prevalence of congregate settings. Higher-risk environments include schools, childcare centers, long-term care facilities, workplaces with close-contact labor (manufacturing, retail, food service), and correctional or group-living settings, where transmission can occur rapidly. Vulnerability is elevated among residents with limited access to primary care, individuals with chronic health conditions, uninsured or underinsured households, and families facing socioeconomic barriers that reduce their ability to isolate, miss work, or access timely treatment. Rural residents may also face challenges in accessing testing, telehealth, or rapid treatment, particularly in areas with limited broadband coverage. Monroe County’s role as a regional employment and retail hub, with daily travel along KY 63, KY 100, and KY 163, increases the likelihood of frequent movement of people into and out of the county, creating additional pathways for disease introduction. While ongoing vaccination efforts, school-based prevention strategies, and coordination with the local health department help reduce overall vulnerability, structural factors—such as aging congregate facilities, workforce density in certain sectors, and gaps in preventive healthcare—contribute to persistent sensitivity to episodic and seasonal EID events.

Monroe County’s vulnerability is shaped by its border proximity and rural character. Cross-county mobility (especially across state lines) could introduce pathogens. Tompkinsville’s medical and public health resources may be stretched if outbreak dynamics intensify. Slower communication and logistical challenges in remote areas may affect testing, tracing, and isolation efforts.

The Kentucky Geological Survey (KGS) identifies two ways in which sinkholes collapse:

1. The roof of a cave becomes too thin to support the weight of the material above it and collapses.
2. Limestone bedrock develops a fracture that is enlarged by water dissolving the limestone. As the limestone erodes, the soil above it slowly falls into the developing sinkhole. This type of cover-collapse is typically very slow and occurs over a long period of time. Only in rare instances will limestone bedrock dissolution cause a rapid collapse.

Karst-related hazards happen quickly and without warning. However, scientists have mapped a large portion of the BRADD region to determine where these hazards are most likely to occur. A snapshot of this mapping is located above. to view a fully interactive map and explore sinkholes by jurisdiction, click on the link below.

The likelihood of new sinkhole formation or reactivation of existing depressions is moderate under current conditions and increasing with expanding development, aging stormwater systems, and heavier rainfall patterns. While most collapses are small and isolated, their unpredictability and potential to undermine roads or utilities justify continued monitoring and maintenance of known karst features.

Damages to human-made structures caused by sinkholes can range from minor to severe. Office buildings, homes, roads, utility lines, and other critical facility or structure located above a sinkhole could be affected. If the sinkhole is large enough, it can affect an entire building or home when it collapses. Minor sinkholes will cause brief damage and are usually fixed with simple excavation techniques.

Drainage water runs into sinkholes during heavy rains and will affect any structures built within the flood plain of a given sinkhole. Present sinkhole vulnerability to flooding can alter the urbanization plans and other forms of expansion and commercialization.

Transportation systems are greatly affected by sinkholes since much of the BRADD’s roadways and highways are constructed over sinkholes. When these sinkholes collapse they not only destroy the road itself but the ground beneath it. Intricate and expensive excavating techniques must be utilized to repair a roadway and its ground foundation affected by a sinkhole.

Because of the vast amount of sinkholes in the BRADD region, there is an extensive groundwater network that supplies public water systems serving many residents. Groundwater essentially originates from rain or other forms of precipitation that soak into the ground and move forward to fill cracks and other openings in soils and rocks. This permeable layer is known as an aquifer. Groundwater is also an abundance natural resource making up 9% of all the freshwater in the world. This water is a direct main source for usable, fresh water for over a million residents in Kentucky, including the Barren River region. For surface streams, groundwater provides as a base flow when it is not raining. Groundwater, especially in a karst environment, is highly susceptible to contamination. Impure rain water, septic tank effluent, agricultural pesticides, and animal waste all contribute to the contamination of groundwater through seepage and runoff. However, contamination problems are aggravated in karst areas by the practice of the disposal of solid and liquid wastes into sinkholes where they may be washed directly into the aquifer.

The natural environment is very vulnerable to the effects of sinkholes. Carbonic rock such as limestone is eroded away by acidic rain and water runoff. This carves out subterranean passages throughout the underside of the landscape. When the ground level clay or cohesive rock materials cannot support the weight, they cave in and fall into these passages. The result is a karst landscape. Sinkhole collapse greatly damages and alters the natural environment. Groundwater contamination can kill cave aquatic life.

People – Anyone living or working near sinkholes or within the drainage basin of a sinkhole is vulnerable. Karst can lead to radon-related health concerns, sinkhole collapse can lead to loss of life and property, groundwater contamination may lead to build-up of dangerous gases in homes and businesses, and flooding may cause drowning.

Economy – Cost of making repairs to property, repairing roads, preparing special foundations for large buildings, an extending public water lines to replace polluted groundwater.

There is an expected impact on sinkholes due to climate change. Increasing temperatures will likely affect hydrologic processes, enhance dissolution of limestone, and promote soil failure. It was found in one study that with every increase of 0.2ºF in global temperature, there is a 1-3% increase in the number of sinkholes, thus, there is a high possibility that an increase in sinkholes is due to climate change. With an increase in intense rain events, there could also be an increase in sinkholes opening due to runoff and undermining of soil.

Potential impacts include:

• Damage to roads and property
• Displacement of residents
• Transportation issues (traffic, blocked routes)
• Economic loss due to changes in development patterns or sinkholes/flooding

Working with AT&T’s Climate Resilient Communities Program and the Climate Risk and Resilience (ClimRR) Portal, BRADD identified additional opportunities for hazard mitigation action items associated with climate impacts for Karst Landscapes in the Barren River Region. To view an interactive report of these findings, click here.

Monroe County’s vulnerability to karst hazards is moderate, reflecting its extensive limestone geology, abundance of sinkholes, and widespread presence of underground drainage systems. Residential areas, farmsteads, and commercial properties located in upland karst plains and valley margins are at heightened risk of sinkhole collapse, differential settlement, and drainage failures—particularly where stormwater concentrates or where development has altered natural flow paths. Rural roadways, culverts, and bridges may experience structural damage or sudden subsidence when voids form beneath pavement or embankments, causing safety hazards and expensive repairs. Agricultural lands are also vulnerable, as sinkholes can damage pasture, fencing, and equipment, and may rapidly convey contaminants into groundwater. Monroe County’s karst aquifers and springs face additional environmental vulnerability, since spills, failing septic systems, or stormwater surges can move quickly through subsurface networks, threatening drinking water quality. Social vulnerability is elevated in areas with older housing, limited financial resources, or private wells, where mitigation and repair costs can be significant. Overall, Monroe County’s combination of active karst processes, rural infrastructure, and dispersed development patterns contributes to persistent and locally significant vulnerability to sinkholes and related karst hazards.

Based on KGS’s data there are 715 Topo and LiDAR-identified sinkholes within Monroe County. In the unincorporated areas of the county (only county land), there are 701 topo and LiDAR-identified sinkholes.

The majority of Monroe County has low karst potential. However, the central portion of the county experiences very high karst/sinkhole potential.

Due to these factors, Monroe County experiences moderate vulnerability to sinkholes. The risk for Monroe County’s cities is analyzed below.

Fountain Run has 4 identified sinkholes. Its vulnerability is low.

Gamaliel has 0 identified sinkholes. Its vulnerability is low.

Tompkinsville has 10 identified sinkholes. Its vulnerability is low.

Landslide Susceptibility

During Kentucky’s 2018 Hazard Mitigation Plan update, Kentucky Geological Survey (KGS) developed a landslide susceptibility map for the state in order to show which areas have greater landslide risk due to slope and geology. Using the KGS data, BRADD staff created a landslide susceptibility dashboard for our 10-counties. Click on the button below to access the BRADD Landslide Dashboard.

In Monroe County, the overall probability of landslides is low to moderate and highly localized. While much of the county consists of rolling terrain and broad agricultural valleys, steeper slopes along creek corridors, roadway cuts, fill slopes, and embankments can become unstable—especially after prolonged or intense rainfall, extended wet seasons, rapid freeze–thaw cycles, or construction activities that alter drainage or slope geometry. Susceptibility increases in areas with clay-rich soils, along incised stream valleys where banks are undercut, and in locations where stormwater concentrates due to karst features or modified flow paths. As in other parts of south-central Kentucky, landslide activity in Monroe County tends to be episodic—remaining quiet for long periods, then occurring in clusters following major storm events or significant seasonal saturation.

Monroe County: 3 events/30 years = 0.1 landslide events per year or 10% chance of a landslide event happening annually.

During Kentucky’s 2018 Hazard Mitigation Plan update, Kentucky Geological Survey (KGS) developed a landslide susceptibility map for the state in order to show which areas have greater landslide risk due to slope and geology. Using the KGS data, BRADD staff created a landslide susceptibility dashboard for our 10-counties. Click on the button below to access the BRADD Landslide Dashboard.

Human-made structures are directly affected by landslides. Any structures such as buildings, roads, bridges, street lighting, and power lines can be completely destroyed if in the direct life of the landslide.

Any roads or other transportation systems that are in the path of a landslide will be directly affected. Roads can either be covered by the debris or wiped completely away. Power lines and telecommunication networks would also be directly affected. Along with roads, telephone poles and towers can be damaged and ruined during the event of a landslide.

A landslide, itself, involves natural materials. The drastic displacement of earth, trees, and debris can cause persistent problems such as continued erosion. Landslides can carry contaminated materials into streams and other water bodies, directly affect wildlife by destroying wildlife habitats such as wooded areas, streams, and ponds. This can affect the ecosystem and all living things within it.

People

The vulnerability of a landslide do not affect one section of the population more than another. Anyone living in an area at high risk of a landslide will be affected. Landslides can occur spontaneously and randomly.

Economy

Economic costs associated with landslides are due to replacement costs for any property damaged. If transportation and telecommunication networks are damaged or destroyed, it may lead to business closures for a brief time.

There is limited evidence connecting climate change to an increase in landslides; however, it is theorized that more intense rainfall, rain-on-snow events, mean warming, permafrost thaw, glacier retreat, and coastal erosion can lead to rockface instability and decreased slope (IPCC 2022). There has been an increase in landslides in certain areas of the world and it is expected that there will be an increase in frequency in northwestern North America. Studies make these projections based on increasing rainfall intensity and frequency, so it is possible that the BRADD region may see minor impacts from these in the form of slumps and low-grade slope failure. Kentucky’s landslides mostly occur in Eastern Kentucky, so the BRADD region should not be significantly impacted.

• Potential impacts include:
• Infrastructure damage
• Ecosystem damage
• Loss of life
• Economic loss

Vulnerability concentrates where people and infrastructure intersect steep or engineered slopes: hillside homes, driveways, and outbuildings; roads and bridges on or beneath cut-and-fill sections; and utilities (water, sewer, gas, fiber) buried in or crossing unstable ground. Even small slope failures can close rural roads, isolate residences, damage culverts, and disrupt emergency response. Natural systems are affected through streambank failures, sedimentation, and habitat disturbance. Social impacts fall hardest on households with limited resources for slope stabilization and on areas with few alternate routes.

Since 1991, KGS has recorded 3 landslides in Monroe County. This averages to .1 landslide events per year.

Because of these factors, Monroe County experiences low vulnerability to landslide events. The risk for Monroe County’s cities is analyzed below.

The City of Fountain Run has had no historic occurrences of landslide events. Its vulnerability is low.

The City of Gamaliel has had two historic occurrence of landslide events. Its vulnerability is medium.

The City of Tompkinsville has had no historic occurrences of landslide events. Its vulnerability is low.

In addition to the current COVID-19 Pandemic, the Kentucky Cabinet for Health and Family Service explains that there have been four other pandemics in United States in the last 100 years: the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu, the 1956-1958 Asian Flu, the 1968-1969 Hong Kong Flu, and the 2009 Novel H1N1. Combined, these four pandemics have claimed thousands of lives in the Commonwealth, hundreds of thousands in the United States, and millions worldwide.

Spanish Influenza 1918-1919: Historical examples of pandemic demonstrate that while a pandemic may be devastating to a community from a life safety and economic standpoint, the threat was often downplayed and ignored. The 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic was initially disregarded as having a significant impact because influenza was thought of as a minor illness that incapacitated the sick for a relatively short period of time before they eventually recovered. However, as the Spanish Influenza rose to pandemic level, it redefined the public’s perception of the virus. A historian at the time noted that at a military encampment in southern Ohio, soldiers would arrive healthy and within twenty-four hours would be dead from the flu. The virus spread globally along trade routes and shipping lines. Residents of North American, Europe, Africa, Asia, Brazil, and the South Pacific were particularly affected by the illness, which in-total infected 1/5 of the global population. In contrast to the majority of flu strains, the Spanish Influenza primarily affected young, healthy adults between the ages of 20 and 40. The mortality rate was 2.5%, an astounding figure given that flu outbreaks typically have a rate of 0.1%. By the end of the pandemic, the virus had claimed 20 million lives worldwide and 675,000 in the United States.

Asian Flu 1956-1958: The New York Times first broke the news of the Asian Flu in 1957 when they published a story of a flu virus that had infected 250,000 in Hong Kong. Months after this story was published, the disease had spread to the United States. Unlike Spanish Influenza, the Asian Flu was most commonly reported in the vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and individuals with heart and lung conditions. People with rheumatic heart disease and women in their third trimester of pregnancy were uniquely impacted. Infection for this pandemic came in two parts—the first in the late summer of 1957 and the second in the winter of 1958. The death toll for the Asian Flu widely varies, with sources reporting between 1 and 4 million deaths worldwide and approximately 69,800 in the United States.

Hong Kong Flu 1968-1969: The Hong Kong Flu is the mildest of all pandemics of the 20th century, a fact that is often explained by its similarity to the Asian Flu which increased immunity to the 1968 strain and the fact that it hit the United States in late December when most students were on break, reducing opportunities for spread. As with the Asian Flu, the vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly, were most at risk. By the end of the pandemic in 1969, it had claimed 33,800 lives in the US.

H1N1 2009-2010: This pandemic first appeared in the United States in the spring of 2009. By June, H1N1 had infected 18,000 people in the US. The virus primarily affected the populations most typically affected by the flu: children and infants, pregnant women, the elderly, and individuals with prior-existing health conditions. Due to advancements in medical research and technology, the overall impact of the pandemic was curbed. A vaccine was introduced in the fall of 2009. Approximately 80 million people were vaccinated worldwide. By the time the pandemic was declared over in the spring of 2010, between 43-89 million people had been infected and between 8,870 and 18,300 people had died.

COVID-19 2020-2023: The most recent pandemic first appeared in the United States in the spring of 2020. By July 2020, COVID-19 had infected over 200,000 people worldwide. The virus initially primarily affected the elderly, and individuals with prior-existing health conditions, however as spread increased so did the populations at-risk. A vaccine was approved for use against the virus in December of 2020, and in May of 2023 the World Health Organization declared an end to the public health emergency of international concern.

The probability of another pandemic is moderate to high due to global mobility, zoonotic spillover risk, and pathogen evolution, even as surveillance and vaccination moderate some risk. For Monroe County, this translates to ongoing planning assumptions and readiness for periodic surges.

Infrastructure could be impacted due to lack of repair and upkeep if pandemic is extensive and lengthy; Utility lines and repairs would take longer to repair due to manpower lost.

Potential increased loss of agricultural assets (crop & livestock) due to loss of manpower to harvest crop; fewer livestock and crop markets due to restriction of crowds which prevent spread of pandemic disease;

People

Farmers-pandemic could affect crop production & yield since they could not seed or harvest; General populace -would be impacted due to both physical and psychological impacts of disease; Possible school closures would aid in disrupting spread of disease; Vulnerable populations may experience more impacts due to synergistic effects of pandemic symptomology. Additionally, the county could expirence increased emergency clinical care visits, more hospitalization (upwards 1-4% symptomatic patients will require hospitalization) leading to severe and overwhelming impacts on healthcare and public health system; workforce absences leading to minimal patient care

Economy

Pandemic can cause business slowdown or even recession; decreased food and merchandise shipped throughout area would increase cost; loss of buyers and sellers due to potential risk of contagion. Increased staff absences (upwards 50% workforce may require time off over entire period of pandemic).

The 2016 Global Risk Report published by the World Economic Forum has proposed that climate change could be a causal factor in future pandemics. This finding is further explored in a 2016 report produced by Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, Pandemics in a Changing Climate – Evolving Risk & Global Response. The report explains that vector ecology indicates the potential for climate change to create the conditions for future pandemics. Changes in temperature, precipitation, and pH levels due to climate change will impact the quantity and quality of ecological services, such as food, water, and soil. Ecosystem shifts can impact the migratory patterns, habitats, population, and survivability of certain animal and insect populations. Such changes may increase human-animal or human-insect contact, increasing the likelihood of transmission. For example, as hot summer months extend tick and mosquito populations, both culprits in transmission of epidemic-causing viruses, can survive longer and have more opportunities to infect humans. Climate change may have more direct impacts on humans by making certain populations, particularly in developing countries, more susceptible to illness by creating food and water security crises.

Monroe County’s vulnerability to pandemics is moderate, shaped by its rural demographics, healthcare access, and the presence of several high-contact environments. Vulnerability is elevated in schools, long-term care facilities, medical clinics, childcare centers, and workplaces with close-contact labor, all of which can experience rapid disease transmission during widespread outbreaks. Rural households relying on single-income employment, limited paid leave, or inconsistent access to healthcare may face barriers to isolating when sick or seeking timely treatment. The county’s older adult population, individuals with chronic conditions, and low-income households face higher health risks and slower recovery from severe illness. Private well users and rural homes with limited broadband access may encounter challenges accessing telehealth, remote schooling, or timely public-health updates. The movement of residents for employment, shopping, and healthcare across KY 63, KY 100, and KY 163 increases the likelihood of viral introduction from surrounding communities. While strong coordination with the local health department, vaccination campaigns, and school-based prevention strategies help reduce risk, structural factors such as healthcare access gaps, aging congregate facilities, and socioeconomic constraints contribute to ongoing pandemic vulnerability across Monroe County.

Monroe County’s vulnerability is shaped by rural challenges, cross-border mobility, and limited direct health resources. In a pandemic, Tompkinsville might suffer case surges beyond capacity, and remote areas may struggle with access to testing, medical care, or public health services. Mutual aid and regional support will be vital.

Location: Severe storms are treated as a region-wide, non-spatial hazard; no jurisdiction is inherently more likely to be struck, though more built-up places see greater damages. For Monroe, that means exposure countywide, with higher potential property impacts in and around Fountain Run, Gamaliel, and Tompkinsville.

Extent: The profile evaluates hail, wind, and lightning (tornadoes are handled separately). Severe thunderstorms are defined by hail ≥ ¾”, wind gusts ≥ 50 knots (57.5 mph), or a tornado. Straight-line winds in extreme cases can exceed 100 mph.

Past events / occurrence: Monroe County has expierenced 78 severe storm events/21 years = 3.74 wind events annually

The BRADD region’s probability of severe storms is rated High  based on annual frequency; this regional rating applies to Barren County as well.

• Monroe: 78 severe storm events/21 years = 3.74 wind events annually

Vehicles, roofs, windows, utilities, roads, and culverts are vulnerable; straight-line winds  can down trees/power lines, causing outages from hours to weeks.

Increased stormwater runoff, localized flooding, tree loss, and impacts to fish/wildlife;  crop and livestock damage are common consequences.

Outdoor workers and people without timely warnings (boaters, campers, farmers, construction crews) are especially susceptible; damages can trigger brief  business closures where transport/telecom are affected.

Research indicates climate change is increasing the number of days with sufficient CAPE and vertical wind shear to produce severe storms (hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes), implying more frequent environments favorable to severe weather in the region.

Monroe County’s vulnerability to severe storms is moderate to high, reflecting countywide exposure to damaging winds, hail, lightning, and short-duration heavy rainfall. The built environment is most at risk in Tompkinsville, Gamaliel, Fountain Run and surrounding residential areas where older homes, manufactured housing, and aging commercial structures are more susceptible to roof loss, siding damage, broken windows, and debris impacts during high-wind or hail events. Rural areas face similar risks, with barns, tobacco and hay structures, grain facilities, and equipment particularly vulnerable due to their lighter construction and open exposure. Critical infrastructure—including overhead electrical distribution lines, communications towers, water and wastewater facilities, and key transportation routes (KY 63, KY 100, KY 163)—is highly sensitive to wind and lightning, resulting in power outages, road blockages, and service disruptions during major storm events.

Agricultural operations experience recurring impacts from severe storms, including crop damage, livestock injuries, fencing loss, and erosion, especially when storms coincide with planting or harvest periods. Natural environments, particularly along creek corridors, may face tree damage, channel debris, and sedimentation. Social vulnerability is elevated among older adults, low-income households, residents in manufactured homes, and those with medical dependencies requiring continuous electricity, all of whom may face longer recovery times following outages or structural damage. Overall, Monroe County’s combination of exposed rural infrastructure, aging building stock, and increasing frequency of high-intensity storm events contributes to persistent, countywide vulnerability to severe storms.

Monroe County has experienced 78 severe storm events/21 years = 3.74 wind events annually.

Because of these factors, Monroe County experiences high vulnerability to severe storms. Fountain Run, Gamaliel, and Tompkinsville reflect Monroe County’s overall history of severe storms, and therefore experience high vulnerability as well.

Because terrorism is intentional and adversarial, traditional frequency-based risk assessments are not sufficient for evaluating potential impacts. Unlike natural hazards, terrorism cannot be forecasted or modeled using historical trends alone. Effective assessment must incorporate intelligence inputs, threat actor capabilities, and scenario planning to understand possible modes of attack and associated vulnerabilities.

At present, there is limited differentiation between types of terrorism that may affect the region. Distinguishing between domestic and international threats, as well as between physical, cyber, or hybrid forms of terrorism, can help clarify risk pathways and improve mitigation strategies. The region’s profile would also benefit from identifying and assessing critical infrastructure and “soft targets” that may be more susceptible to intentional acts, such as public gathering venues, utilities, schools, and government facilities.

Because terrorism is intentional and adversarial, you cannot rely solely on historical frequency to derive probability. Many risk models for terrorism must incorporate intelligence assessments, threat actor capabilities, and scenario planning.

While the page references terrorism conceptually, it does not currently include coordination protocols with law enforcement, fusion centers, or homeland security partners that monitor and share threat intelligence. Strengthening interagency coordination—particularly with local emergency management, police, and state agencies—would provide a more credible understanding of regional exposure and response capability.

Cascading and secondary effects of terrorism events, such as public panic, misinformation, economic disruption, and strain on emergency and health systems, are also important considerations. The social and psychological impacts of terrorism can be significant even when physical damage is limited, underscoring the need to plan for behavioral health support and long-term community recovery.

Additionally, the region’s profile does not currently evaluate local preparedness measures such as continuity of operations plans (COOP), security assessments, or mass-casualty response capacity, which are key indicators of resilience. Future updates should also consider emerging risks, such as cyber-physical attacks on utilities and critical networks, and how these may intersect with traditional forms of terrorism.

Finally, it is important to acknowledge both the limitations and sensitivities of terrorism-related data. Some information—such as specific target locations or threat intelligence—cannot be publicly shared due to security concerns. Nonetheless, transparency in describing the general methods, assumptions, and partnerships used to assess terrorism risk would enhance credibility while maintaining confidentiality.

Terrorism can destroy or damage buildings and critical lifelines (power, water/wastewater, transportation, and communications), with impacts dictated by the attack method and proximity to critical nodes.

Acts such as agro-terrorism or hazardous-materials release can contaminate soil, water, or wildlife habitat, and BRADD explicitly notes potential destruction of natural resources under certain attack types.

Intentional acts are designed to cause casualties, widespread fear, and economic disruption; BRADD highlights life-safety risks, psychological effects, and local economic shocks due to reduced participation and interrupted operations.

Climate stressors (e.g., pressures on marginalized populations, aging infrastructure, and periods of civil unrest) may elevate susceptibility to terrorism-related activities, including threats to infrastructure, property, and cyber/economic systems, even though overall climate-driven terrorism risk for the region remains low. 

Monroe County’s vulnerability to terrorism is generally low, but several localized factors create areas of elevated concern. Potential targets include critical infrastructure such as electrical substations, water and wastewater facilities, telecommunications assets, and transportation corridors along KY 63, KY 100, and KY 163, which support regional mobility and commerce. Public-facing facilities—such as schools, government buildings, healthcare clinics, and major gathering sites in Tompkinsville, Fountain Run, and Gamaliel—represent additional soft targets due to their accessibility and concentration of people. While Monroe County does not host high-risk industrial or federal facilities, its proximity to regional travel routes and reliance on essential utilities introduces the potential for opportunistic attacks, sabotage, or cyber incidents that could disrupt essential services. Social vulnerability is elevated among residents dependent on medical equipment or limited communication resources during emergencies. Although no elevated threats are currently identified, ongoing coordination with regional partners, continuity planning, cybersecurity improvements, and public awareness efforts remain important for reducing Monroe County’s overall terrorism vulnerability.

Monroe County’s vulnerability to terrorism remains low; however, its border proximity to Tennessee and reliance on regional transportation routes introduce limited exposure. Tompkinsville serves as the county’s administrative and commercial center, with schools, healthcare facilities, and government offices as potential soft targets. The county’s small size and close-knit community support rapid information dissemination but also underscore the importance of coordination with state and neighboring law enforcement agencies.

Tornado severity in Monroe County can range from brief, weak EF-0/EF-1 touchdowns to rare, high-end EF-3+ events capable of destroying well-built structures; the EF categories and related wind speeds set the bounds for plausible damage.

From 2000–2025, Monroe County experienced 10 tornadoes (≈ 40% chance of at least one tornado in a given year). Since 1950, tornadoes that touched down in the county have caused 0 injuries and 0 deaths. Regional context includes the December 10–11, 2021 outbreak, with multiple long-track and high-end events affecting neighboring counties.

Tornado exposure is countywide and non-spatial at planning scale; consequences concentrate where people and assets are located (e.g., Scottsville, major corridors, and higher-occupancy or vulnerable housing areas such as mobile homes).

BRADD rates overall regional probability for tornadoes as high, based on historical frequency, wind-zone classification, and FEMA definitions. Monroe County’s recent history (10 events/25 years) supports an ongoing, recurring likelihood at the county scale.

Tornadoes can damage or destroy homes and businesses, topple transmission and distribution lines, block roads and bridges with debris, and interrupt power, communications, and water/wastewater services.

Tornadoes can fell trees, damage crops and farm structures, degrade habitats, and increase fire risk where dead or downed timber is not removed.

Tornadoes can cause deaths and injuries, trigger temporary but significant economic disruption, and reduce local revenue and productivity during recovery.

While attribution is complex at tornado scale, research indicates fewer “one-tornado” days and more multi-tornado cluster days, linked to increases in days with high CAPE and sufficient vertical wind shear; this implies more days conducive to severe storms—a planning consideration for warning, sheltering, and surge response.

Monroe County’s vulnerability to tornadoes is high, driven by widespread exposure to severe weather and a built environment that includes older homes, manufactured housing, and lightly constructed farm buildings that are more susceptible to wind and debris damage. Areas in and around Tompkinsville, Gamaliel, Fountain Run, and rural communities face heightened risk, especially where residents have limited access to reinforced shelter. Critical infrastructure—such as electrical lines, communication towers, and small commercial centers—may experience outages or structural impacts, while agricultural operations can suffer losses to fencing, equipment, livestock, and storage structures. Social vulnerability is elevated among low-income households, older adults, and individuals with mobility limitations, who may face challenges accessing safe shelter or recovering from storm-related damage. Overall, Monroe County’s combination of aging structures, manufactured housing, and dispersed rural settlement patterns contributes to persistent vulnerability to tornado hazards.

Between 2000 and 2021, Monroe County has experienced 8 tornadoes/21 years = 33% chance of a tornado happening in a given year.

Since 1950, tornadoes that touched down in Monroe County have not caused injury or death.

Monroe County contains one census tract wherein at least 25% of all housing units are mobile homes.

Because of these factors, Monroe County experiences high vulnerability to tornadoes. Fountain Run, Gamaliel, and Tompkinsville all reflect Monroe County’s overall history of tornado events, and therefore experience high vulnerability as well.

Extent is characterized by the number and severity of winter storm, heavy snow, and ice storm events (including federally declared disasters). The BRADD region recorded multiple FEMA winter-storm disaster declarations between 2000 and 2020 and 66 reportable winter storm events in that period.

From 2000–2025, Monroe County experienced 18 severe winter storms.

Exposure is countywide (non-spatial at the planning scale), with impacts most evident where people, infrastructure, and travel corridors concentrate (e.g., Morgantown, Rochester, and Woodbury, and major roads)

Regionally, BRADD rates future winter-storm probability as moderate. Monroe County’s observed history (18 events over 2000–2025) supports a similar, recurring likelihood at the county scale, with year-to-year variability driven by storm track and ice versus snow dominance.

Winter storms can damage roofs under snow load, break limbs that fall onto buildings and vehicles, down power lines, and block roads and bridges with snow/ice and debris; even modest icing can disrupt utilities and emergency response.

Extended snow/ice cover can alter habitats and timing of species behavior; out-of-season events can injure or kill vegetation and damage crops and trees.

Hazardous travel, power outages, and isolation elevate risks for households—especially older adults or people with medical needs—while business closures and school disruptions impose community-wide costs.

Changing winter characteristics: warmer winters overall, fewer heavy snowmelt events, more precipitation falling as rain/ice in the Southeast, a lengthening freeze-free season, and related economic and infrastructure stresses—factors that may shift Allen County’s winter risk mix toward icing events and infrastructure sensitivity even as extreme cold snaps still occur.

The table below displays ice storm, winter storms, and heavy snow events that were reported to NOAA and NWS between 2000 and 2020. While not each of these events received a FEMA declaration, each showed clear characteristics of a severe winter storm.

Between 2000 and 2020, NOAA and NWS reported 14 severe winter storms in Monroe County.

On average, Monroe County has experienced 5 winter storm events/21 years. This equates to a 0.24% chance of a winter storm event in Monroe County annually.

In January of 2016, 8 to 10 inches of snow accumulated across Monroe County.

Because of these factors, Monroe County experiences moderate vulnerability to winter storm events. Fountain Run, Gamaliel, and Tompkinsville reflect Monroe County’s overall history of winter storms, and therefore experience moderate vulnerability as well.