Hazards in Metcalfe County

Quality of Dam Infrastructure

The American Society of Civil Engineers gave Kentucky a D+ on dam infrastructure, which is only slightly better than the national average. The average US dam is 60 years old, and most dams in Kentucky are over 50. As of 2019, 80 dams in the state are classified as two-fold risks, meaning that they are both high hazards and in poor or unsatisfactory condition. 47% of these 80 dams received that rating partially because they cannot hold enough rain during catastrophic storms. 89% of high hazard dams in Kentucky do not have complete emergency action plans on file with the state. 74% have simplified draft plans, but these are not widely shared and have not been adopted by local officials.

Types of Dam Failure

There are three types of Dam Failure:

1. Structural: This common cause is responsible for nearly 30% of all dam failure in the United States. Structural failure of a dam occurs when there is a rupture in the dam or its foundation.
2. Mechanical: Refers to the failure or malfunctioning of gates, conduits, or valves.
3. Hydraulic: Occurs when the uncontrolled flow of water over the top, around, and adjacent to the dam erodes its foundation. Hydraulic failure is the cause of approximately 34% of all dam failures.

Metcalfe County contains a variety of small impoundments, including agricultural ponds, private farm dams, and several NRCS flood-control or watershed structures designed to manage stormwater, reduce erosion, or support agricultural operations. Most of these dams are low-hazard, earthen embankments with relatively small storage capacity compared to larger high-hazard dams in neighboring counties. While failure of these structures would likely produce localized flooding, downstream impacts could still include rapid water release, erosion of rural roadbeds, culvert damage, loss of agricultural infrastructure, and flooding of nearby homes or outbuildings situated in narrow valleys or low-lying corridors.

Metcalfe County’s hydrologic setting is shaped by tributaries of the East Fork Little Barren River, Butler Branch, Rogers Creek, Pettit Fork, and multiple small karst-fed channels. During periods of heavy or prolonged rainfall, these systems can already be elevated, meaning that dam failure—particularly overtopping or structural breach—could worsen existing flood conditions, increasing flow velocity, carrying debris, and temporarily altering stream channels. In steep or confined topography, warning time would be limited, increasing risks to downstream residents, agricultural operations, and rural road networks.

History of Dam Failure

Historically, no major dam failures have been recorded in Metcalfe County, but minor issues consistent with rural Kentucky—such as spillway blockages, erosion of embankments, seepage, or overtopping during intense storms—have been reported at small, privately owned dams. Many older agricultural impoundments were constructed decades ago and may not meet modern engineering or inspection standards, making them more susceptible to deterioration over time. Regional events in adjacent counties, particularly during significant rainfall years such as 2010, 2018, 2020, and 2021, demonstrate that aging or poorly maintained dams can approach failure conditions under severe hydrologic stress.

Because many Metcalfe County dams are privately owned and fall below the size threshold for routine state inspections, potential vulnerabilities may not be identified until severe weather exposes structural weaknesses. This increases the importance of landowner maintenance, vegetation management, spillway monitoring, and coordination with NRCS and the Kentucky Division of Water.

Probability

The probability of a dam failure in Metcalfe County is considered low, but the presence of numerous small, aging agricultural impoundments and privately owned farm dams creates a persistent underlying risk. Most dams in the county are low-hazard, earthen embankments constructed decades ago to support livestock, crop irrigation, or erosion control. Because these structures often fall below state inspection thresholds, many rely solely on the landowner for upkeep. Over time, natural wear—including animal burrowing, vegetation overgrowth, internal piping, spillway deterioration, and erosion—can gradually weaken dam integrity.

Metcalfe County is prone to periodic high-intensity rainfall, which can stress small dams, especially during seasons of saturated soil or back-to-back storm events. Overtopping, the most common precursor to dam failure, becomes more likely when rainfall exceeds spillway capacity or when spillways become blocked by debris. Climate projections for south-central Kentucky indicate a continued rise in extreme precipitation events, further increasing the long-term probability that small dams may be pushed beyond their intended design limits.

Although catastrophic dam failures remain unlikely on an annual basis, Metcalfe County should expect occasional minor dam-related incidents, such as overtopping, erosion of embankments, or partial structural damage, particularly during periods of unusually heavy rainfall. Given the aging inventory of small, privately maintained agricultural dams, the county’s overall dam failure probability is best characterized as low but consistent, with risk rising during wet years and after prolonged rainfall.

Built Environment:

A breach can produce rapid inundation that damages or destroys buildings, blocks roads with debris, disrupts traffic and emergency services, and threatens water/wastewater systems—especially if a reservoir supplies drinking water.

Natural Environment:

Floodwaves can scour channels, mobilize debris and contaminants, and disrupt aquatic habitats and riparian systems.

Social Environment:

Fast-arriving floodwaters elevate life-safety risk, particularly for people living/working in low-lying downstream areas with limited warning or evacuation options.

Climate Impacts on Dam Failure:

Increasingly intense rainfall, longer wet periods, and more frequent extreme storm events can raise hydraulic loading on dams, heighten the risk of overtopping, accelerate erosion of embankments and spillways, and reduce warning/response time. Climate-driven shifts can also stress aging infrastructure and complicate reservoir operations (e.g., balancing flood control with drought storage), making proactive maintenance, updated hydrologic/hydraulic studies, and EAP exercises even more critical.

Metcalfe County’s vulnerability to dam failure is moderate, shaped by its rural development patterns, agricultural land use, and the prevalence of older, privately owned dams that may not receive routine inspection or maintenance. Many of the county’s small earthen dams are located upstream of farms, residences, county roads, and low-water crossings, meaning that even a failure of a low-hazard structure could result in downstream flooding, erosion of road embankments, blocked culverts, and damage to agricultural fields, equipment, or outbuildings. Homes situated in narrow valleys or along small tributaries—particularly those with limited elevation or shallow foundations—are at elevated risk of rapid inundation in the event of a breach.

Transportation infrastructure represents a notable vulnerability. Rural roads, single-outlet driveways, and bridges near small streams can be quickly compromised by sudden water releases, isolating residents or delaying emergency response. Agricultural operations located directly below farm ponds or NRCS structures may face economic losses from crop destruction, livestock impacts, and debris flow. Because many residences and farms rely on private wells and septic systems, sudden flooding from a dam breach can also lead to water-quality concerns or system failures.

The county’s karst terrain adds complexity to vulnerability. Sinkholes or subsurface voids near dam embankments or spillways can alter drainage pathways, weaken structural stability, or accelerate internal erosion if water begins to move through underground conduits. Limited monitoring of these features increases the likelihood that deterioration goes unnoticed until severe weather exposes underlying problems.

Populations most affected include residents living downstream of agricultural impoundments, low-income households with limited capacity to recover from flood losses, and farms dependent on structures or animals located within flood pathways. Emergency response challenges—such as long travel distances, limited connectivity, and rural terrain—may compound impacts during or after a failure.

Overall, Metcalfe County’s vulnerability reflects the intersection of aging private dams, rural settlement patterns, infrastructure limitations, and karst-influenced hydrology, underscoring the need for proactive maintenance outreach, landowner education, and coordination with NRCS and state agencies to identify and mitigate potential structural concerns.

Risk is elevated relative to the region: Mill Creek MPS 4 is classified as a High Hazard (C) dam, and Wolf Creek Dam, while outside BRADD, could impact eastern Monroe County if it failed. Downstream communities, roads, and utilities require robust alerting/evacuation coordination and consequence-based drills.

Location/Extent

Drought affects the entirety of Metcalfe County, with especially significant consequences in rural agricultural areas that rely on dependable irrigation and livestock water. During extended dry periods, Barren River Lake levels can drop, affecting recreation and municipal supply. Historical droughts have driven soil-moisture deficits exceeding ~50% and reduced viability of staple crops such as corn and soybeans.

Sensitivity is elevated for row-crop and pasture lands, small public water systems or systems with leakage/limited storage, and surface-water/groundwater users lacking redundant sources. BRADD’s Water System Vulnerability to Drought resource further highlights system-level considerations for the region.

Past Events

Notable events include the 2012 drought, when much of Kentucky—including Metcalfe County—reached D3 (Extreme Drought) on the U.S. Drought Monitor, with widespread agricultural losses, elevated fire risk, and water shortages. From 2000–2025, Metcalfe County experienced ~53 weeks of D2 (Moderate) and ~15 weeks of D3 (Severe/Extreme) drought; USDA issued drought disaster declarations in 2022 and 2023 for documented production losses.

Probability

Long-term monitoring indicates drought is a recurrent hazard. Metcalfe County experienced 600 total weeks of drought over the last 25 years—about a 46% chance that any given week features drought conditions. Projections suggest drought likelihood may increase with climate change as rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns extend dry periods.

Built Environment:

Lower reservoir and well levels can strain municipal water systems, increase infrastructure operating costs (e.g., pumping/energy), and trigger usage restrictions for businesses and institutions; prolonged deficits can reduce fire-flow availability for rural systems.

Natural Environment:

Drought reduces streamflow and aquatic habitat quality, stresses forests and grasslands, and can degrade water quality as lower volumes concentrate pollutants.

Social Environment:

The largest local effects are economic losses in agriculture (crop failures, livestock stress, higher irrigation costs) and secondary risks such as increased wildfire potential; households and small businesses can face water shortages and higher costs.

Climate Impacts on Dam Failure:

Rising temperatures increase evapotranspiration and soil‐moisture loss, while shifting precipitation patterns can produce longer dry spells punctuated by intense storms that do little to recharge groundwater. Hotter summers elevate water demand, stress crops and livestock, worsen algal blooms and other water-quality issues in low flows, and compound risks when heat waves coincide with drought—intensifying health, agricultural, and infrastructure impacts across Edmonson County.

Drought Vulnerability in the BRADD Region

Soil Susceptibility

Soil’s susceptibility to drought varies due to a myriad of factors. The map below depicts vulnerability to drought based on soil type from a moisture retention and availability perspective. For example a shallow fragipan limits the depth of the soil making it more vulnerable to moisture loss. Grey areas indicate that no soil data was available due to lakes, heavily urbanized areas, or strip mining. Susceptibility to Drought Scores were established using the criteria of infiltration, water movement, and water supply for the soils defined in the NRCS Soil Surveys that encompass the state.

Metcalfe County’s drought vulnerability is moderate to high, shaped by its predominantly agricultural economy, widespread reliance on private wells, and dependence on livestock, hay, tobacco, and mixed row-crop operations that are particularly sensitive to prolonged dry conditions. Agricultural producers—especially those raising cattle, poultry, and dairy, as well as hay and pasture-based systems—are highly susceptible to forage loss, reduced yields, increased feed costs, and water-supply strain during extended drought. Older adults, outdoor laborers, and medically vulnerable residents face elevated heat-related health risks during drought-driven periods of extreme temperature. Many rural households and farms depend on private wells and small rural water associations, which may experience declining groundwater levels, reduced pumping capacity, or costly maintenance when severe dryness persists. Limited redundancy in rural water infrastructure, combined with Metcalfe County’s dispersed population and long travel distances for services, increases operational and public-health challenges when drought conditions affect water availability, livestock needs, or cooling requirements.

Metcalfe County’s public water system demonstrates low vulnerability to drought.

The soil susceptibility map indicates that the majority of Metcalfe County’s soil experiences low susceptibility to drought. However, the eastern side of the county does have a moderately high susceptibility to drought.

Overall, Metcalfe County has a moderately low to moderately high vulnerability to drought. Because drought is a non-spatial hazard, this same analysis can be applied to its respective city – Edmonton.

Location/Extent

Kentucky is affected by nearby seismic zones—New Madrid (most active east of the Rockies) and Wabash Valley (capable of M5.5–6.0 damage near population centers). Potential shaking in Butler County ranges from weak/noticeable (MMI II–IV) during distant events to light–moderate (MMI V–VI) in rarer, larger scenarios; secondary effects can include nonstructural damage, minor slope instability, and utility disruptions. The eastern U.S. crust transmits shaking efficiently, so distant earthquakes can be widely felt.

Severity is commonly expressed by earthquake magnitude and by shaking intensity (Modified Mercalli Scale). Metcalfe County’s worst-case consequences depend on regional event size/distance and local amplification/liquefaction potential.

Past Events

Metcalfe County has no recorded damaging earthquakes ≥M3 within its borders, but residents have periodically felt shaking from events originating in surrounding regional seismic zones. As with much of south-central Kentucky, Metcalfe County is influenced by activity from the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) to the west, the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone (WVSZ) to the northwest, and the East Tennessee Seismic Zone (ETSZ) to the southeast. Small earthquakes from these zones occasionally produce weak to light shaking (MMI II–IV) detectable by residents, though such events have not caused structural impacts locally.

The most significant historical seismic influence remains the 1811–1812 New Madrid earthquake sequence, which generated strong, long-duration shaking across Kentucky. Although the area that is now Metcalfe County was sparsely settled at the time, historical accounts confirm widespread ground motion and regional effects consistent with strong shaking. More recently, Metcalfe County residents have felt tremors from ETSZ and WVSZ events, including the 2018 Decatur, Tennessee M4.4 earthquake, as well as moderate events in Missouri, Arkansas, and southern Illinois whose seismic waves traveled efficiently through eastern U.S. bedrock.

While no earthquake in the past several decades has caused damage in Metcalfe County, the recurring pattern of regionally felt events underscores the county’s exposure to low-frequency but potentially high-impact earthquakes from surrounding seismic zones.

The probability of a damaging earthquake in Metcalfe County is considered low, but the probability of experiencing felt seismic activity is moderate, due to the county’s location between three major regional seismic zones: the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) to the west, the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone (WVSZ) to the northwest, and the East Tennessee Seismic Zone (ETSZ) to the southeast. These zones generate frequent small- to moderate-magnitude earthquakes, some of which are strong enough to be felt in south-central Kentucky every few years. Felt events typically produce MMI II–IV shaking, rarely causing damage but serving as reminders of the region’s seismic context.

Stronger shaking (MMI V–VI) is plausible within a 50-year planning horizon, particularly from ETSZ or WVSZ events. Though a major New Madrid earthquake is a low-probability, high-consequence event, modeling shows that Metcalfe County would experience widespread shaking due to the efficient transmission of seismic waves through eastern U.S. crust. While climate factors do not influence earthquake occurrence, the region’s saturated soils during wet seasons can amplify shaking impacts along slopes or unconsolidated creek valleys. Overall, Metcalfe County should expect occasional mild-to-moderate felt earthquakes and maintain preparedness for rare but potentially significant seismic events originating from adjacent seismic zones.

An earthquake could result in structural damage to older buildings, critical facilities, and infrastructure not designed to modern seismic codes. Bridges, utilities, and water systems could sustain significant damage, leading to service disruptions. Secondary impacts might include landslides in certain areas, hazardous material spills, and challenges in emergency response due to blocked roads and damaged communication systems. Economic losses could be substantial, particularly for uninsured property owners.

Built Environment:

Shaking can damage homes and business structures, collapse unreinforced elements, and disrupt roads/bridges, power, water/wastewater, and telecom. Post-event debris and utility outages can hinder emergency response.

Natural Environment:

Secondary effects—liquefaction, landslides, fires, and hazmat releases—can degrade soils, waterways, and habitats.

Social Environment:

Transportation disruption, hospital surge, power/water interruptions, and communications overload elevate life-safety risk and complicate reunification and care for vulnerable groups (children, older adults, LEP populations).

Climate Impacts on Earthquakes:

While climate change does not drive tectonic earthquakes, hydrologic extremes (prolonged drought, heavy precipitation, groundwater withdrawal/recharge) may alter subsurface stresses in limited contexts. The BRADD region has an overall low earthquake risk, so any climate influence on local frequency/severity is likely minor relative to tectonic controls.

Vulnerability

Metcalfe County’s vulnerability to earthquakes is moderate, shaped by its aging housing stock, prevalence of rural structures, and the presence of karst-influenced terrain, which can amplify ground instability during shaking. Although the county does not contain known active fault lines, older homes—especially those built before modern seismic design standards—are more susceptible to structural damage, including cracking of foundations, chimneys, and masonry. Many rural residences rely on pier-and-beam or shallow foundations, which may be more vulnerable to differential movement during seismic activity.

Critical facilities—including schools, emergency services buildings, long-term care facilities, water and wastewater infrastructure, and communication towers—could experience service disruptions if subjected to even moderate shaking. Infrastructure elements such as bridges, culverts, and utility lines located on soft soils or near stream valleys are particularly sensitive to ground settlement or lateral spreading. Metcalfe County’s extensive karst terrain poses an additional concern: seismic vibrations may worsen existing subsurface voids, triggering small collapses or soil displacement in sinkhole-prone areas.

Populations at highest risk include older adults living in aging homes, low-income households with limited capacity for structural retrofits, and residents relying on utilities that could be disrupted by shaking. Though earthquake impacts are less frequent than weather-related hazards, the county’s combination of older structures, rural infrastructure, and karst geology contributes to a sustained vulnerability that warrants ongoing planning and public awareness.

Metcalfe County is within the “light” perceived shaking zone for a high magnitude earthquake and does not contain significant fault lines.

Because of these factors, Metcalfe County experiences low vulnerability to earthquakes. Because earthquakes are non-spatial hazards, it can be assumed that this analysis should be applied to Metcalfe County’s respective city – Edmonton.

Location/Extent

Location and Extent

Extreme temperatures—both excessive heat and extreme cold—occur countywide in Metcalfe County and can affect all residents, businesses, and critical facilities. Summer heat events combine high temperatures with elevated humidity levels, often producing heat index values above 100–105°F, especially during multi-day heat waves. These conditions pose significant risks to older adults, outdoor workers, households without adequate cooling, and residents living in older homes or manufactured housing with limited insulation or aging HVAC systems. Prolonged heat events may also strain electrical systems, increase cooling demands, and affect livestock health and water use.

Extreme cold typically occurs between December and February and can involve wind chills below zero, hard freezes, and winter storms that compound temperature stress. These events may lead to frozen or burst water lines, malfunctioning heat systems, and impacts on private wells or exposed infrastructure. Rural homes relying on electric-only heat, older propane systems, or uninsulated well pumps are especially vulnerable when extreme cold persists. Livestock operations and agricultural facilities—common across Metcalfe County—are also sensitive to prolonged cold, particularly where water-supply systems or shelters are exposed.

Both extreme heat and extreme cold pose risks to transportation networks, utilities, schools, and healthcare providers, with impacts extending across Edmonton and the county’s many rural communities. Temperature extremes in Metcalfe County can produce wide-ranging, countywide consequences, particularly when combined with power outages, limited redundancy in heating or cooling options, and the dispersed nature of the population.

Historical Occurrences

Cold. Within the regional record (2010–2021), Metcalfe County had one wind chill watch (2014) and one wind chill warning (2015); these events were issued region-wide.

Heat. Across 2010–2021, the BRADD region recorded 18 excessive heat watches and 71 excessive heat warnings; county-level breakdowns show Metcalfe County averaged ~22.6 extreme-heat days per year (2010–2016).

Probability

Expect recurrent heat seasons with periodic advisory/warning episodes and less frequent but hazardous cold outbreaks. While year-to-year frequency varies, local planning should assume annual heat advisories are likely, with occasional excessive-heat warnings, and intermittent extreme-cold events in some winters.

Extreme heat can lead to heat exhaustion and heatstroke, particularly in outdoor workers, the elderly, and low-income households without access to cooling. It also increases energy demand, raising utility costs and the likelihood of power outages. Severe cold poses risks of frostbite, hypothermia, and infrastructure damage, including frozen pipes and malfunctioning heating systems. Both extremes can disrupt agricultural yields, livestock health, and local economies.

Built Environment:

Cold can burst buried water pipes, strain metal bridge members, and affect trucking/rail operations (e.g., diesel gelling). Heat can soften asphalt, stress vehicle cooling systems and rail operations, and increase water demand, sometimes reducing fire-flow availability.

Natural Environment:

Cold snaps threaten livestock and wildlife and can freeze ponds/streams. Heat can degrade water quality, drive algal blooms, and reduce crop yields and dairy productivity.

Social Environment:

Cold elevates exposure risks for people without adequate shelter or heat and can increase CO poisoning and fire risk; both cold and heat create economic losses (e.g., utility repair, agriculture) and can trigger business/school closures. Heat is the leading U.S. weather-related killer, with illnesses from fatigue to heat stroke.

Climate Impacts on Extreme Temperatures:

Climate change models predict and increase in overall temperature globally for the coming decades, including the BRADD region. With a potential rise of several degrees Fahrenheit, multiple services, systems, and activities face disruption and impact. Temperature increases this small may not seem threatening, but the cumulative impacts will affect weather events, human health, and ecosystem functions, along with economic and social issues related to energy use and cost of living.

Working with  AT&T’s Climate Resilient Communities Program and the  Climate Risk and Resilience (ClimRR) Portal, BRADD identified additional opportunities for hazard mitigation action items associated with climate impacts for Extreme Temperatures in the Barren River Region. To view an interactive report of these findings,   click here.

Metcalfe County’s vulnerability to extreme temperatures is moderate to high, driven by its rural housing stock, agricultural workforce, aging infrastructure, and reliance on electric or propane heating and cooling systems. Many older homes and manufactured residences across the county have limited insulation, outdated HVAC units, or inadequate weatherization, making them highly susceptible to indoor heat buildup during summer heat waves and to freezing conditions during winter cold snaps. Households reliant on private wells, especially those with exposed pumps or shallow lines, face water-access problems when temperatures fall below freezing for extended periods.

Populations at greatest risk include older adults, medically fragile individuals, young children, and low-income households that may struggle with high utility costs or lack adequate heating or cooling appliances. Outdoor workers—particularly those employed in agriculture, construction, and seasonal labor—face elevated exposure during periods of extreme heat. During extreme cold events, residents using unsafe supplemental heating methods, or living in mobile homes without skirting or proper insulation, face heightened life-safety risks.

Critical facilities such as schools, long-term care centers, EMS stations, and healthcare clinics are vulnerable to HVAC failures or increased energy loads, which can disrupt operations and place stress on emergency response systems. Metcalfe County’s widespread overhead power lines further elevate vulnerability, as outages during temperature extremes can quickly escalate into public-health emergencies, particularly for households dependent on electricity for medical devices or climate control.

Agricultural operations—including livestock barns, poultry houses, dairy equipment, and water storage systems—are also sensitive to temperature extremes. Heat can reduce livestock productivity and stress water-supply systems, while extreme cold can freeze lines, damage equipment, and threaten animal health.

Overall, Metcalfe County’s vulnerability reflects the combined effects of aging homes, dispersed rural populations, energy dependence, agricultural exposure, and limited redundancy in heating and cooling systems, highlighting the need for weatherization programs, utility resilience, and public outreach during temperature extremes.

Since 2010, Metcalfe County experienced one wind chill watch (2014) and one wind chill warning (2015).

Because of these factors, Metcalfe County experiences moderate vulnerability to extreme cold events. Edmonton reflects Metcalfe County’s overall history of extreme cold, and therefore experiences high vulnerability as well.

For extreme heat, on average, Metcalfe County experienced 22.6 extreme heat days per year between 2010 and 2016.

Because of these factors, Metcalfe County experiences moderate vulnerability to extreme heat events. Edmonton reflects Metcalfe County’s overall history of extreme heat, and therefore experiences moderate vulnerability as well.

Flooding in Metcalfe County includes riverine flooding, flash flooding, and localized/poor-drainage flooding, with impacts occurring across both the City of Edmonton and the county’s widespread rural communities. The county’s hydrologic network is shaped by tributaries of the East Fork Little Barren River, Butler Branch, Rogers Creek, Pettit Fork, and numerous smaller streams, all of which can swell rapidly during periods of heavy rainfall. Riverine flooding most often affects low-lying agricultural lands, creekside residences, and narrow valleys where drainage capacity is limited.

Flash flooding is a frequent hazard in Metcalfe County’s steep headwater basins, hollow systems, and road cuts, where intense rainfall can produce rapid water rises and strong runoff. Rural roadways, low-water crossings, and culverts—especially those that are undersized or obstructed by debris—are particularly vulnerable to washouts and temporary closures during storm events. In Edmonton, localized flooding occurs in older neighborhoods and commercial areas where stormwater infrastructure may be insufficient to manage high-intensity rainfall.

Much of Metcalfe County sits atop karst terrain, including sinkhole plains and areas with subsurface drainage conduits. These karst features can significantly influence flooding behavior by directing stormwater underground, causing rapid ponding, or triggering sudden, localized flooding when sinkhole inlets clog or soils become saturated. Such events may occur outside mapped Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs), creating challenges for mitigation and public awareness.

Flooding in Metcalfe County is countywide in extent, with severity ranging from nuisance water pooling to significant flash-flood conditions capable of damaging structures, isolating roadways, and disrupting agricultural operations.

Repetitive-Loss & Severe Repetitive-Loss PropertiesMetcalfe County, 

Metcalfe County, Unincorporated and the City of Edmonton both possess zero (0) Repetitive-Loss (RL) and/or Severe Repetitive-Loss (SRL) properties. There are two (2) definitions for “Repetitive-Loss” and there are two (2) definitions for “Severe Repetitive-Loss”: There are the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) program definitions of “Repetitive-Loss” and “Severe Repetitive-Loss” and there are the Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) definitions of “Repetitive-Loss” and “Severe Repetitive-Loss.”

Metcalfe County has experienced a moderate number of flood events over the past two decades, with National Weather Service and regional disaster records documenting recurring flash flooding, roadway washouts, and localized inundation during high-intensity rainfall. Based on available data, Metcalfe County has had 18 flood events over 20 years—an average of 0.9 events per year, or a 90% chance of at least one flood event occurring annually. While total event counts are lower than in some larger BRADD counties, this frequency places Metcalfe County firmly within the mid-range of regional flood occurrence. Most incidents involve short-duration storms that overwhelm small tributaries, road crossings, and rural drainage systems.

Exposure in Metcalfe County is countywide, with riverine flooding occurring along the East Fork Little Barren River, Butler Branch, Rogers Creek, Pettit Fork, and numerous smaller karst-fed streams. Flash flooding is common in steep headwater basins, narrow hollows, road cuts, and rural low-water crossings, where intense rainfall can produce rapid rises, debris movement, and high-velocity runoff. In Edmonton, localized or poor-drainage flooding affects older neighborhoods and commercial corridors with undersized culverts or aging stormwater infrastructure.

Low-lying agricultural fields, recreation areas, and structures near creek floodplains experience periodic inundation during prolonged or repeated rainfall. Much of Metcalfe County is underlain by extensive karst terrain, where sinkholes, depressions, and losing streams can concentrate stormwater and produce sudden, localized flooding when drainage inlets clog or subsurface conduits become saturated. These conditions often result in flooding outside mapped Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs), particularly in rural sinkhole plains, farm fields, and areas where stormwater collects in closed depressions.

Click Here to view a summary of all past Disaster Declarations in the BRADD Region.

Below you will find a listing of past NOAA Flood and Flash-Flood Events from 2000-2020 for Metcalfe County.

The probability of flooding in Metcalfe County is high, with both flash-flood and localized flooding events occurring regularly during the spring, summer, and early fall storm seasons. Based on documented events, Metcalfe County has experienced 18 flood events over 20 years—an average of 0.9 events per year, or a 90% chance of at least one flood event occurring annually. Flood likelihood increases during periods of repeated heavy rainfall, stalled frontal systems, or high-intensity thunderstorms that can quickly overwhelm small tributaries and rural drainage systems.

Flash flooding represents the most frequent flood hazard in the county, particularly in steep headwater basins, narrow hollows, and low-water crossings that respond rapidly to high-volume storm events. Localized or poor-drainage flooding also occurs periodically within the City of Edmonton and in rural communities where aging stormwater infrastructure or karst conditions reduce drainage capacity.

Metcalfe County’s extensive karst terrain further elevates flood probability by creating unpredictable drainage behavior—stormwater may rapidly sink underground during dry conditions but can cause sudden ponding or inundation when sinkhole inlets clog or when subsurface conduits become saturated. These dynamics contribute to flooding outside mapped Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs), making the hazard more difficult to forecast and prepare for.

Overall, flooding in Metcalfe County should be considered a recurring annual hazard, with seasonal variation driven by storm track, soil saturation, and the intensity of thunderstorm activity. The increasing frequency of extreme precipitation events across south-central Kentucky suggests that flash-flood risk may continue to rise over the coming decades.

Extreme heat can lead to heat exhaustion and heatstroke, particularly in outdoor workers, the elderly, and low-income households without access to cooling. It also increases energy demand, raising utility costs and the likelihood of power outages. Severe cold poses risks of frostbite, hypothermia, and infrastructure damage, including frozen pipes and malfunctioning heating systems. Both extremes can disrupt agricultural yields, livestock health, and local economies.

Built Environment:

Flooding can cause structural damage to both residential and commercial buildings and destroy furnishing and inventory.
Flooding will causes inconvenience or stoppage to many system. Transportation systems such as roads and railways become unpassable. Large amounts of water from a flood can affect water management systems such as the backup or hiatus of drainage, sanitary, and sewer systems. As heavy rains persist during a flood event, excess water drains into the ground water system. This causes the water table to rise and cause further ground water floods. If chemicals are mixed with flood waters, this can contaminate the ground water, a common source of fresh water for communities.

Natural Environment:

As flood waters engulf the surrounding natural environment, they are saturated with chemicals and other substances associated with the manmade environment that they have also been in contact with. As these abnormal waters settle and flows through natural ecosystems they can alter and even destroy both plant and animal life. When the flow of flood waters becomes so immense, it can physically destroy or uproot naturally growing vegetation and also drive specific species of animals out of their natural habitats for good.

Social Environment:

People
People with property located in the floodplain or within areas subject to seepage are vulnerable to flooding. Stoppage to transportation systems can make it very difficult for isolated populations to receive aid or escape breeching flood waters. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly or people who need medical attention, may be temporarily cut off from accessing life-saving resources.

Economy
Floods can affect local economies by disrupting transportation systems needed for people to get to and from work and destroying places of business and means of production. When flooding occurs in more rural areas, livestock and agricultural system will be affected. Crops can be destroyed in the growing season, or prevent from seeding in the off season. Large insurance payouts to residents or business owners who have procured flood insurance might also have an economic impact.

Climate Impacts on Flooding:

Climate change models predict and increase in overall temperature globally for the coming decades, including the BRADD region. With a potential rise of several degrees Fahrenheit, multiple services, systems, and activities face disruption and impact. Temperature increases this small may not seem threatening, but the cumulative impacts will affect weather events, human health, and ecosystem functions, along with economic and social issues related to energy use and cost of living.

Working with  AT&T’s Climate Resilient Communities Program and the  Climate Risk and Resilience (ClimRR) Portal, BRADD identified additional opportunities for hazard mitigation action items associated with climate impacts for flooding in the Barren River Region. To view an interactive report of these findings,   click here.

Metcalfe County’s vulnerability to flooding is moderate to high, shaped by the county’s rural landscape, extensive karst terrain, reliance on small drainage systems, and concentration of homes, businesses, and public facilities in low-lying areas. Flood risk is elevated along the East Fork Little Barren River, Butler Branch, Rogers Creek, Pettit Fork, and numerous small tributaries that rise quickly during high-intensity rainfall. Rural road networks—with many low-water crossings, undersized culverts, and hollow roads—are particularly susceptible to washouts, temporary closures, and erosion. These disruptions directly affect school transportation, emergency response, agricultural operations, and access to essential services.

A significant portion of the county sits atop sinkhole plains and subsurface drainage systems, making Metcalfe County highly vulnerable to localized, sudden flooding when sinkholes clog or drainage conduits become saturated. Flooding in these areas often occurs outside mapped Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs), leaving residents and property owners with little awareness of or preparation for flood risk. Agricultural operations—especially livestock farms, hay fields, and equipment storage areas—face repeated impacts from saturated soils, field flooding, and damage to rural roads and water systems.

Residential vulnerability is elevated in older homes, manufactured housing, and structures with minimal elevation or foundation freeboard, particularly in areas with limited access to maintained drainage infrastructure. Low-income households and residents in remote areas face additional challenges in recovering from flood impacts due to limited financial resources, longer travel distances, and reliance on private wells and septic systems, which can be damaged or contaminated during flood events.

Critical facilities—including schools, emergency services, and health clinics—are vulnerable when nearby roadways flood or when stormwater infrastructure is overwhelmed. Because the county relies on extensive overhead utilities, power outages during flood-producing storms can further strain households, medical equipment users, and agricultural operations. Taken together, Metcalfe County’s vulnerability reflects the combined influence of rural infrastructure, karst terrain, dispersed populations, agricultural dependence, and limited drainage capacity, making sustained mitigation investments essential for reducing long-term flood risk.

Between 2000 and 2020, Metcalfe County has had 18 flood events.

Metcalfe County has received FEMA Disaster Declarations as a result of flooding in 1998, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2015 (3), 2016, 2018 (2), 2019, and 2020 (2).

Overall, Metcalfe County experiences high vulnerability to flood events. The risk for Metcalfe County’s city is analyzed below.

The City of Edmonton has had three historic occurrences of flood and flash-flood events since 2000. Its vulnerability is low.

The extent of a hazardous materials release is characterized by the type of substance, quantity released, state (gas, liquid, solid), dispersion behavior, and weather/terrain conditions. Releases may be constrained and local (e.g. a leaking drum or tank) or large and far-reaching (e.g. vapors spreading over multiple miles, groundwater contamination migrating). Depending on the chemical’s toxicity, volatility, and persistence, an incident could produce acute health effects, long-term environmental harm, or chronic exposure zones. In the BRADD region, credible scenarios include a small spill alongside a highway, a rail car release near populated areas, or a storage tank failure, each producing different spatial footprints and hazard zones.

The BRADD region has a record of hazardous materials incidents, particularly associated with transportation and industrial operations. Kentucky has experienced several costly hazmat transit incidents in recent years. In rail transport, derailments involving chemical cargo have spurred evacuations and environmental response. For example, in 2007, a major derailment in Kentucky released hazardous materials and required area evacuation. Nationally and regionally, chemical spills from industrial plants have caused injury, property damage, and remediation efforts. Some incidents, such as the 1981 Louisville sewer explosions (driven by hexane vapors in sewer lines), illustrate how improper chemical disposal can lead to infrastructure destruction. These past events highlight the potential for both acute and lingering impacts of hazardous material releases.

The probability of hazardous materials (hazmat) incidents in Metcalfe County is moderate, with most risk tied to transportation corridors and localized storage or use of chemicals in agricultural, commercial, and light industrial settings. While the county does not host large industrial facilities with significant Tier II chemical inventories, it experiences steady movement of petroleum products, agricultural chemicals, and commercial freight along U.S. 68 (Edmonton Road), KY-163, KY-90, and other regional connectors. These roadways serve as the primary pathways for potential transportation-related spills or releases.

Metcalfe County’s agricultural sector contributes additional routine hazmat exposure through the storage and use of fertilizers, pesticides, anhydrous ammonia, fuel, and farm chemicals, especially during planting and harvest seasons. Though incidents are generally small and occur infrequently, accidental releases from farm tanks, transport trailers, or equipment failures remain possible. Local gas stations, mechanical shops, and propane distributors also present low- to moderate-level fixed-site hazards.

While major hazardous materials accidents are rare, small transportation spills occur periodically across the BRADD region, and the county’s rural road network—including sharp curves, narrow bridges, and limited shoulders—slightly increases the likelihood of transport-related events. Emergency response challenges are elevated by travel distance, volunteer-based fire departments, and limited specialized hazmat resources within the county. Overall, hazardous materials incidents in Metcalfe County should be considered occasional but recurring risks, driven largely by regional freight movement and the county’s agricultural economy.

Hazardous materials releases can produce widespread and cascading effects across built, natural, and social environments.

Built Environment

Hazardous materials releases can damage roadways, contaminate vehicles or structures, and require temporary closures of key transportation routes. Spills affecting culverts or drainage systems may require costly cleanup to prevent further environmental spread.

Natural Environment

The Green River and its tributaries are highly sensitive to chemical contamination. Fuel or fertilizer spills can produce fish kills, degrade water quality, and disrupt riparian ecosystems. Agricultural soil contamination may impact crop productivity and groundwater quality.

Social Environment

Hazardous materials incidents may require evacuation or shelter-in-place orders for households near spill locations. Impacts can include temporary school closures, disrupted commutes, or delayed emergency response. Vulnerable populations—including older adults, motorists, and individuals in vehicles involved in the incident—are at heightened risk.

Climate Impacts

Increasing temperatures and more volatile weather may heighten the risk of chemical volatilization, stress on agricultural chemical storage, and accident frequency during severe-weather periods.

Metcalfe County’s vulnerability to hazardous materials incidents is moderate, shaped by its rural transportation network, agricultural chemical use, limited local hazmat resources, and dispersed population. The greatest vulnerability arises from transportation-related spills, as the county relies heavily on road corridors such as U.S. 68, KY-163, KY-90, and other rural connectors for fuel delivery, agricultural supply transport, and commercial freight movement. Sharp curves, narrow bridges, and limited shoulders on many secondary roads increase the potential consequences of vehicle accidents involving hazardous substances.

Agricultural operations—particularly those using anhydrous ammonia, pesticides, fuels, and fertilizers—create additional vulnerability, especially during peak application seasons. While most farm-related chemicals are stored safely, accidental releases or equipment failures can pose risks to workers, nearby residences, or livestock. Small businesses such as propane distributors, auto repair shops, and fuel stations represent localized fixed-site hazards; although their inventories are limited, proximity to homes or roads can increase exposure during an incident.

Emergency response capacity also influences vulnerability. Metcalfe County relies primarily on volunteer fire departments, with long response distances in some rural areas and limited specialized hazmat equipment. Evacuation, containment, and decontamination resources are constrained, and coordination with regional partners may be necessary during more significant events. Residents living near transportation corridors or agricultural operations—especially older adults, individuals with respiratory conditions, or households without reliable transportation—face greater difficulty during evacuation or shelter-in-place orders.

Overall, Metcalfe County’s vulnerability reflects the combined effects of frequent chemical transport, agricultural dependence, aging rural infrastructure, and limited local response capability, underscoring the need for continued coordination with regional hazmat teams, responder training, and public education on chemical safety.

Metcalfe County’s vulnerability is low overall, with few industrial operations but consistent agricultural use of pesticides, fuels, and fertilizers. Most potential incidents would involve small spills during transport or handling. The county’s karst features increase the risk of localized groundwater contamination. Limited hazmat response resources mean the county relies on mutual aid and regional support for major incidents.

Emerging infectious disease (EID) outbreaks can range from small, localized clusters to countywide or multi-county epidemics, depending on the pathogen’s transmissibility (e.g., R₀), incubation/asymptomatic period, mode of transmission (airborne, droplet, contact, vector, food/water), clinical severity, and availability of countermeasures (vaccines/antivirals). Severity is often expressed through combinations of attack rate, hospitalization and ICU utilization, case fatality ratio, and the duration/number of waves, which together determine stress on healthcare, schools, businesses, and critical services. FEMA’s planning policy expects plans to describe a hazard’s type, location, and extent and to include previous occurrences and the probability of future events; for EIDs, this typically means using qualitative scales (e.g., low/moderate/high) informed by public-health surveillance and scenario analysis.

Metcalfe County’s EID context mirrors the region and state: 2009 H1N1 influenza produced widespread illness and vaccination campaigns; COVID-19 (2020–2022) caused repeated surges, remote learning periods, healthcare strain, and workforce disruptions across south-central Kentucky, with lingering recovery needs. At smaller scales, seasonal influenza, gastrointestinal outbreaks, hepatitis A, and tick-borne illnesses recur and periodically challenge local public-health capacity. For hazard-mitigation purposes, these events document that infectious hazards are recurring and can escalate quickly, even when initial clusters are small.

EIDs are non-spatial at the county scale: exposure is countywide and follows human activity patterns. Transmission risk is elevated where people congregate or where mobility is high, including schools and childcare sites, long-term care and healthcare facilities, workplaces and distribution/logistics hubs, correctional settings, places of worship, and events/venues. Vulnerability may be higher for neighborhoods with older adults, people with chronic conditions, uninsured/under-insured residents, or limited access to primary care, and for settings with shared housing or limited ventilation.

The probability of emerging infectious disease (EID) activity in Metcalfe County is ongoing and moderate, with routine outbreaks expected annually and larger, disruptive events occurring on a multi-year cycle. Like other rural counties in south-central Kentucky, Metcalfe experiences regular circulation of respiratory viruses, gastrointestinal pathogens, vector-borne illnesses, and school-based outbreaks, particularly during the academic year and peak winter respiratory season. Seasonal influenza, RSV, and novel respiratory viruses remain the most common drivers of countywide transmission.

The likelihood of a significant EID event—one capable of stressing local healthcare resources or disrupting schools, workplaces, or long-term care facilities—over a 5–10-year planning window is moderate, shaped by regional mobility patterns, social mixing in congregate settings, and limited on-site medical surge capacity. Metcalfe County’s proximity to Glasgow, Bowling Green, and other regional employment centers increases daily travel and cross-county interaction, heightening the probability of periodic disease introductions.

Vector-borne illnesses such as West Nile virus, tick-borne diseases, and other environmentally influenced pathogens may increase in frequency as warmer temperatures, longer warm seasons, and changing precipitation patterns affect vector populations and outdoor exposure. Probability is further influenced by levels of vaccination uptake, access to primary and preventive care, and the speed of detection and response. Overall, Metcalfe County should expect regular, annually recurring infectious-disease activity, with the potential for larger episodic outbreaks that require coordinated public-health and emergency-management intervention.

Impact

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) can trigger cascading consequences across systems even when case counts are moderate, because illness, isolation, and precautionary measures disrupt people, places, and services simultaneously. Direct health impacts (morbidity, mortality) are compounded by workforce absenteeism, supply-chain delays, and surges on healthcare and public health operations. The breadth of consequences depends on the pathogen’s transmissibility and severity, the speed of detection, and the availability of countermeasures (testing, treatment, vaccination) and risk communication.

Built Environment

EIDs strain the built environment indirectly by stressing the facilities and systems people operate. Hospitals, clinics, EMS stations, and pharmacies can exceed functional capacity, requiring surge spaces and changes to ventilation and patient flow. Public buildings, schools, and workplaces may need operational adjustments (enhanced cleaning, spacing, HVAC improvements), and staffing gaps can delay maintenance for roads, utilities, and public facilities. Supply-chain disruptions can slow construction projects and limit availability of critical parts for water/wastewater, transportation, and communications systems.

Natural Environment

While EIDs primarily affect human systems, response activities can influence the environment. Increased use of medical disposables and disinfectants elevates medical and solid-waste volumes, requiring proper handling to avoid secondary environmental impacts. Wastewater surveillance—often deployed for EIDs—integrates environmental sampling into public health practice and necessitates careful lab and sampling protocols. Changes in human activity (e.g., reduced travel) may temporarily alter local air quality and traffic-related emissions.

Social Environment

EIDs most strongly affect the social environment. Illness, isolation, and caregiving responsibilities reduce workforce availability, interrupt schooling and childcare, and strain household finances—especially for hourly and small-business workers. Behavioral-health needs rise due to stress, grief, and prolonged uncertainty, while misinformation can erode trust and complicate protective actions. Impacts are disproportionate for older adults, people with chronic conditions, low-income and uninsured residents, and those in congregate or high-exposure settings (schools, long-term care, logistics and retail).

Climate Impacts on EID

Climate does not directly “cause” EIDs, but it can shape risk conditions. Hotter summers and poor air-quality days can drive indoor crowding, increasing transmission opportunities for respiratory pathogens. Shifts in precipitation and temperature can extend vector seasons (ticks, mosquitoes) and alter wildlife–human interfaces that enable zoonotic spillover. Climate stress on infrastructure and households (e.g., heat waves, severe storms) can also complicate access to care and continuity of operations, amplifying the consequences of an outbreak when it coincides with other hazards.

Metcalfe County’s vulnerability to emerging infectious diseases is moderate to high, driven by a combination of healthcare access limitations, demographic characteristics, workforce patterns, and the presence of multiple high-contact environments. The county relies on a small healthcare network and limited local urgent-care or specialty services, meaning that residents often travel to Glasgow, Campbellsville, or Bowling Green for medical care. This increases both exposure pathways and potential delays in diagnosis or treatment during significant outbreaks. Long-term care facilities, schools, and childcare centers serve as key points of transmission, particularly during respiratory virus seasons.

Population characteristics also heighten vulnerability. Metcalfe County has a substantial share of older adults, residents with chronic health conditions, and households with limited transportation, all of whom face elevated risk during infectious-disease surges. Lower vaccination uptake for certain diseases and barriers to preventive care increase susceptibility and limit early intervention. Workers commuting to regional employment hubs encounter high-contact settings and may bring infections back into rural households or multi-generational residences.

Additionally, many residents rely on jobs in healthcare, retail, food service, manufacturing, and education, where close indoor contact increases vulnerability to rapid spread. During outbreaks, absenteeism among critical-infrastructure staff—such as EMS, schools, utilities, and healthcare—can strain service continuity. Broadband gaps in some rural areas can also limit access to telehealth, online schooling, and remote work options during periods of high transmission.

Overall, vulnerability in Metcalfe County reflects the combined impacts of limited healthcare capacity, demographic risk factors, high levels of regional commuting, and social environments conducive to rapid disease spread, underscoring the need for strong public-health coordination, surveillance, and community outreach.

Metcalfe County’s vulnerability is lower in terms of rapid transmission potential due to smaller population and lower density. However, limited healthcare infrastructure and diagnostic capacity may slow detection and response, allowing outbreaks to expand before containment. The county would rely heavily on regional support for laboratory services, surge staff, and public health resources.

The Kentucky Geological Survey (KGS) identifies two ways in which sinkholes collapse:

1. The roof of a cave becomes too thin to support the weight of the material above it and collapses.
2. Limestone bedrock develops a fracture that is enlarged by water dissolving the limestone. As the limestone erodes, the soil above it slowly falls into the developing sinkhole. This type of cover-collapse is typically very slow and occurs over a long period of time. Only in rare instances will limestone bedrock dissolution cause a rapid collapse.

Karst-related hazards happen quickly and without warning. However, scientists have mapped a large portion of the BRADD region to determine where these hazards are most likely to occur. A snapshot of this mapping is located above. to view a fully interactive map and explore sinkholes by jurisdiction, click on the link below.

The likelihood of new sinkhole formation or reactivation of existing depressions is moderate under current conditions and increasing with expanding development, aging stormwater systems, and heavier rainfall patterns. While most collapses are small and isolated, their unpredictability and potential to undermine roads or utilities justify continued monitoring and maintenance of known karst features.

Damages to human-made structures caused by sinkholes can range from minor to severe. Office buildings, homes, roads, utility lines, and other critical facility or structure located above a sinkhole could be affected. If the sinkhole is large enough, it can affect an entire building or home when it collapses. Minor sinkholes will cause brief damage and are usually fixed with simple excavation techniques.

Drainage water runs into sinkholes during heavy rains and will affect any structures built within the flood plain of a given sinkhole. Present sinkhole vulnerability to flooding can alter the urbanization plans and other forms of expansion and commercialization.

Transportation systems are greatly affected by sinkholes since much of the BRADD’s roadways and highways are constructed over sinkholes. When these sinkholes collapse they not only destroy the road itself but the ground beneath it. Intricate and expensive excavating techniques must be utilized to repair a roadway and its ground foundation affected by a sinkhole.

Because of the vast amount of sinkholes in the BRADD region, there is an extensive groundwater network that supplies public water systems serving many residents. Groundwater essentially originates from rain or other forms of precipitation that soak into the ground and move forward to fill cracks and other openings in soils and rocks. This permeable layer is known as an aquifer. Groundwater is also an abundance natural resource making up 9% of all the freshwater in the world. This water is a direct main source for usable, fresh water for over a million residents in Kentucky, including the Barren River region. For surface streams, groundwater provides as a base flow when it is not raining. Groundwater, especially in a karst environment, is highly susceptible to contamination. Impure rain water, septic tank effluent, agricultural pesticides, and animal waste all contribute to the contamination of groundwater through seepage and runoff. However, contamination problems are aggravated in karst areas by the practice of the disposal of solid and liquid wastes into sinkholes where they may be washed directly into the aquifer.

The natural environment is very vulnerable to the effects of sinkholes. Carbonic rock such as limestone is eroded away by acidic rain and water runoff. This carves out subterranean passages throughout the underside of the landscape. When the ground level clay or cohesive rock materials cannot support the weight, they cave in and fall into these passages. The result is a karst landscape. Sinkhole collapse greatly damages and alters the natural environment. Groundwater contamination can kill cave aquatic life.

People – Anyone living or working near sinkholes or within the drainage basin of a sinkhole is vulnerable. Karst can lead to radon-related health concerns, sinkhole collapse can lead to loss of life and property, groundwater contamination may lead to build-up of dangerous gases in homes and businesses, and flooding may cause drowning.

Economy – Cost of making repairs to property, repairing roads, preparing special foundations for large buildings, an extending public water lines to replace polluted groundwater.

There is an expected impact on sinkholes due to climate change. Increasing temperatures will likely affect hydrologic processes, enhance dissolution of limestone, and promote soil failure. It was found in one study that with every increase of 0.2ºF in global temperature, there is a 1-3% increase in the number of sinkholes, thus, there is a high possibility that an increase in sinkholes is due to climate change. With an increase in intense rain events, there could also be an increase in sinkholes opening due to runoff and undermining of soil.

Potential impacts include:

• Damage to roads and property
• Displacement of residents
• Transportation issues (traffic, blocked routes)
• Economic loss due to changes in development patterns or sinkholes/flooding

Working with AT&T’s Climate Resilient Communities Program and the Climate Risk and Resilience (ClimRR) Portal, BRADD identified additional opportunities for hazard mitigation action items associated with climate impacts for Karst Landscapes in the Barren River Region. To view an interactive report of these findings, click here.

Metcalfe County’s vulnerability to karst-related hazards is high, reflecting the county’s extensive sinkhole plains, subsurface drainage networks, and prevalence of losing streams. Much of the county—particularly areas surrounding Edmonton, Sulphur Well, and portions of the East Fork Little Barren River basin—contains moderate to high sinkhole density, increasing the likelihood of sudden ground subsidence, drainage disruption, and localized flooding. Residential properties, farm structures, outbuildings, and roadways built over karst-prone terrain face elevated risk when sinkholes develop, expand, or reactivate following heavy rainfall.

Rural road infrastructure is particularly vulnerable. Sinkhole formation beneath or adjacent to county roads can cause pavement collapse, shoulder failures, or chronic settlement, requiring repeated maintenance and posing safety hazards for motorists. Culverts and drainage ditches may discharge into karst features that clog or fail unpredictably, leading to ponding, erosion, or redirected surface flows. Agricultural operations—including pastureland, livestock watering systems, and manure management areas—are also at risk from sudden drainage changes or subsurface contamination when sinkholes provide direct pathways into groundwater.

Homes built in older subdivisions or on large rural parcels may lack adequate geotechnical evaluation, making foundations, septic systems, and private wells more susceptible to damage. Flooding vulnerability is magnified in karst areas, as blocked sinkholes can create rapid, localized inundation outside mapped floodplains, surprising residents who do not anticipate flood risk. Drinking-water vulnerability is increased where sinkholes or sinking streams provide direct conduits for surface contaminants to enter aquifers used by private wells.

Overall, Metcalfe County’s vulnerability to karst hazards is driven by its geologic setting, rural development patterns, aging infrastructure, and widespread reliance on private wells and septic systems, underscoring the need for consistent monitoring, public education, and careful land-use planning in high-risk areas.

Based on KGS’s data there are 1,247 Topo and LiDAR-identified sinkholes within Metcalfe County. In the unincorporated areas of the county (only county land), there are 1,237 topo and LiDAR-identified sinkholes.

The majority of Metcalfe County has low karst potential. However, pockets in the northern and western portions of the county experience very high karst/sinkhole potential.

Due to these factors, Metcalfe County experiences moderate vulnerability to sinkholes. The risk for Metcalfe County’s city is analyzed below.

Edmonton has 10 identified sinkholes. Its vulnerability is low.

Landslide Susceptibility

During Kentucky’s 2018 Hazard Mitigation Plan update, Kentucky Geological Survey (KGS) developed a landslide susceptibility map for the state in order to show which areas have greater landslide risk due to slope and geology. Using the KGS data, BRADD staff created a landslide susceptibility dashboard for our 10-counties. Click on the button below to access the BRADD Landslide Dashboard.

The probability of landslides in Metcalfe County is low to moderate, with events occurring infrequently but becoming more likely during periods of prolonged or intense rainfall. Compared to steeper BRADD counties, Metcalfe’s gently rolling topography reduces overall susceptibility; however, steep stream valleys, road cuts, embankments, and slopes along tributaries of the East Fork Little Barren River remain vulnerable to localized slope failures. Historical records indicate that landslide activity in Metcalfe County is episodic—quiet for long periods, then clustered during major storm events or extended wet seasons when soils become saturated and drainage pathways are overwhelmed.

Regionally compiled data show that Metcalfe County has experienced approximately 18 landslide-related incidents over 30 years, averaging 0.6 events per year, which translates to a 60% chance of at least one landslide occurring in a given year. Failures typically involve small-scale slumps, embankment failures, or shoulder collapses along rural roads rather than large mass movements. Susceptibility increases in areas with clay-rich soils, over-steepened slopes, or poorly maintained ditches and road cuts, as well as in locations where alterations to natural drainage—such as construction, fill placement, or clogged culverts—create instability.

Although large, destructive landslides are unlikely, the combination of periodic high-intensity rainfall, vulnerable road infrastructure, and localized steep terrain ensures that landslides remain an ongoing hazard with the potential to disrupt travel, damage rural infrastructure, and impose maintenance and repair burdens on the county.

Human-made structures are directly affected by landslides. Any structures such as buildings, roads, bridges, street lighting, and power lines can be completely destroyed if in the direct life of the landslide.

Any roads or other transportation systems that are in the path of a landslide will be directly affected. Roads can either be covered by the debris or wiped completely away. Power lines and telecommunication networks would also be directly affected. Along with roads, telephone poles and towers can be damaged and ruined during the event of a landslide.

A landslide, itself, involves natural materials. The drastic displacement of earth, trees, and debris can cause persistent problems such as continued erosion. Landslides can carry contaminated materials into streams and other water bodies, directly affect wildlife by destroying wildlife habitats such as wooded areas, streams, and ponds. This can affect the ecosystem and all living things within it.

People

The vulnerability of a landslide do not affect one section of the population more than another. Anyone living in an area at high risk of a landslide will be affected. Landslides can occur spontaneously and randomly.

Economy

Economic costs associated with landslides are due to replacement costs for any property damaged. If transportation and telecommunication networks are damaged or destroyed, it may lead to business closures for a brief time.

There is limited evidence connecting climate change to an increase in landslides; however, it is theorized that more intense rainfall, rain-on-snow events, mean warming, permafrost thaw, glacier retreat, and coastal erosion can lead to rockface instability and decreased slope (IPCC 2022). There has been an increase in landslides in certain areas of the world and it is expected that there will be an increase in frequency in northwestern North America. Studies make these projections based on increasing rainfall intensity and frequency, so it is possible that the BRADD region may see minor impacts from these in the form of slumps and low-grade slope failure. Kentucky’s landslides mostly occur in Eastern Kentucky, so the BRADD region should not be significantly impacted.

• Potential impacts include:
• Infrastructure damage
• Ecosystem damage
• Loss of life
• Economic loss

Metcalfe County’s vulnerability to landslides is moderate, driven primarily by its rural road network, pockets of steep terrain, clay-rich soils, and drainage patterns influenced by both surface runoff and karst features. While large-scale landslides are unlikely, small to medium slope failures can have significant local impacts, particularly along county roads, hollow roads, embankments, and stream-adjacent slopes where saturated soils and poor drainage can trigger slumps or shoulder collapses. These failures often occur suddenly during or after heavy rainfall, impeding transportation, damaging culverts, and increasing maintenance demands.

Rural residents are particularly vulnerable when landslides block narrow roadways that serve as the sole access routes to homes, farms, or emergency services. School bus routes, agricultural transport, and EMS response can all be affected when roadway embankments fail or debris blocks travel lanes. Slopes disturbed by construction, utility installation, or ditch maintenance may also be susceptible to failure if not stabilized appropriately.

Homes built on or below steepened slopes—especially older structures without modern geotechnical evaluation—face elevated risk from small-scale slumps or erosion that can undermine foundations, outbuildings, or driveways. Agricultural vulnerability includes damage to fence lines, pasture edges, and access roads, as well as soil loss that can reduce productivity on hillside fields.

Because Metcalfe County contains extensive karst terrain, drainage shifts caused by sinkhole clogging or subsurface flow changes can destabilize slopes by causing unexpected saturation or erosion. These conditions may activate slope failures in areas not previously identified as high risk. Limited redundancy in rural transportation routes and the county’s dependence on narrow, winding roads further increase vulnerability.

Overall, landslide vulnerability in Metcalfe County reflects the combined influence of terrain, soil type, rural infrastructure, and storm-driven saturation, highlighting the importance of slope stabilization, ditch and culvert maintenance, and monitoring of recurrent problem areas.

Since 1991, KGS has recorded 3 landslides in Metcalfe County. This averages to .1 landslide events per year.

Because of these factors, Metcalfe County experiences low vulnerability to landslide events. The risk for Metcalfe County’s city is analyzed below.

The City of Edmonton has had one historic occurrences of landslide events. Its vulnerability is low.

In addition to the current COVID-19 Pandemic, the Kentucky Cabinet for Health and Family Service explains that there have been four other pandemics in United States in the last 100 years: the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu, the 1956-1958 Asian Flu, the 1968-1969 Hong Kong Flu, and the 2009 Novel H1N1. Combined, these four pandemics have claimed thousands of lives in the Commonwealth, hundreds of thousands in the United States, and millions worldwide.

Spanish Influenza 1918-1919: Historical examples of pandemic demonstrate that while a pandemic may be devastating to a community from a life safety and economic standpoint, the threat was often downplayed and ignored. The 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic was initially disregarded as having a significant impact because influenza was thought of as a minor illness that incapacitated the sick for a relatively short period of time before they eventually recovered. However, as the Spanish Influenza rose to pandemic level, it redefined the public’s perception of the virus. A historian at the time noted that at a military encampment in southern Ohio, soldiers would arrive healthy and within twenty-four hours would be dead from the flu. The virus spread globally along trade routes and shipping lines. Residents of North American, Europe, Africa, Asia, Brazil, and the South Pacific were particularly affected by the illness, which in-total infected 1/5 of the global population. In contrast to the majority of flu strains, the Spanish Influenza primarily affected young, healthy adults between the ages of 20 and 40. The mortality rate was 2.5%, an astounding figure given that flu outbreaks typically have a rate of 0.1%. By the end of the pandemic, the virus had claimed 20 million lives worldwide and 675,000 in the United States.

Asian Flu 1956-1958: The New York Times first broke the news of the Asian Flu in 1957 when they published a story of a flu virus that had infected 250,000 in Hong Kong. Months after this story was published, the disease had spread to the United States. Unlike Spanish Influenza, the Asian Flu was most commonly reported in the vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and individuals with heart and lung conditions. People with rheumatic heart disease and women in their third trimester of pregnancy were uniquely impacted. Infection for this pandemic came in two parts—the first in the late summer of 1957 and the second in the winter of 1958. The death toll for the Asian Flu widely varies, with sources reporting between 1 and 4 million deaths worldwide and approximately 69,800 in the United States.

Hong Kong Flu 1968-1969: The Hong Kong Flu is the mildest of all pandemics of the 20th century, a fact that is often explained by its similarity to the Asian Flu which increased immunity to the 1968 strain and the fact that it hit the United States in late December when most students were on break, reducing opportunities for spread. As with the Asian Flu, the vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly, were most at risk. By the end of the pandemic in 1969, it had claimed 33,800 lives in the US.

H1N1 2009-2010: This pandemic first appeared in the United States in the spring of 2009. By June, H1N1 had infected 18,000 people in the US. The virus primarily affected the populations most typically affected by the flu: children and infants, pregnant women, the elderly, and individuals with prior-existing health conditions. Due to advancements in medical research and technology, the overall impact of the pandemic was curbed. A vaccine was introduced in the fall of 2009. Approximately 80 million people were vaccinated worldwide. By the time the pandemic was declared over in the spring of 2010, between 43-89 million people had been infected and between 8,870 and 18,300 people had died.

COVID-19 2020-2023: The most recent pandemic first appeared in the United States in the spring of 2020. By July 2020, COVID-19 had infected over 200,000 people worldwide. The virus initially primarily affected the elderly, and individuals with prior-existing health conditions, however as spread increased so did the populations at-risk. A vaccine was approved for use against the virus in December of 2020, and in May of 2023 the World Health Organization declared an end to the public health emergency of international concern.

Pandemics have a low-probability but high-consequence profile. Globally, pandemic-level events occur several times per century, though moderate-scale regional epidemics—such as severe influenza seasons—are more frequent. For Edmonson County, the likelihood of a pandemic impacting the community over a 10-year planning horizon is classified as moderate, driven by:

• High levels of regional and interstate travel
• Workforce movement into and out of Hart County’s commercial centers
• Increasing global connectivity
• Seasonal respiratory disease patterns
• Periodic emergence of novel viral strains

Although pandemics remain rare compared to other hazards, their prolonged and system-wide impacts justify sustained planning and mitigation.

Infrastructure could be impacted due to lack of repair and upkeep if pandemic is extensive and lengthy; Utility lines and repairs would take longer to repair due to manpower lost.

Potential increased loss of agricultural assets (crop & livestock) due to loss of manpower to harvest crop; fewer livestock and crop markets due to restriction of crowds which prevent spread of pandemic disease;

People

Farmers-pandemic could affect crop production & yield since they could not seed or harvest; General populace -would be impacted due to both physical and psychological impacts of disease; Possible school closures would aid in disrupting spread of disease; Vulnerable populations may experience more impacts due to synergistic effects of pandemic symptomology. Additionally, the county could expirence increased emergency clinical care visits, more hospitalization (upwards 1-4% symptomatic patients will require hospitalization) leading to severe and overwhelming impacts on healthcare and public health system; workforce absences leading to minimal patient care

Economy

Pandemic can cause business slowdown or even recession; decreased food and merchandise shipped throughout area would increase cost; loss of buyers and sellers due to potential risk of contagion. Increased staff absences (upwards 50% workforce may require time off over entire period of pandemic).

The 2016 Global Risk Report published by the World Economic Forum has proposed that climate change could be a causal factor in future pandemics. This finding is further explored in a 2016 report produced by Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, Pandemics in a Changing Climate – Evolving Risk & Global Response. The report explains that vector ecology indicates the potential for climate change to create the conditions for future pandemics. Changes in temperature, precipitation, and pH levels due to climate change will impact the quantity and quality of ecological services, such as food, water, and soil. Ecosystem shifts can impact the migratory patterns, habitats, population, and survivability of certain animal and insect populations. Such changes may increase human-animal or human-insect contact, increasing the likelihood of transmission. For example, as hot summer months extend tick and mosquito populations, both culprits in transmission of epidemic-causing viruses, can survive longer and have more opportunities to infect humans. Climate change may have more direct impacts on humans by making certain populations, particularly in developing countries, more susceptible to illness by creating food and water security crises.

Metcalfe County’s vulnerability to pandemics is moderate to high, shaped by its limited local healthcare capacity, demographic risk factors, workforce commuting patterns, and the presence of multiple high-contact settings. The county relies primarily on small clinics and limited urgent-care resources, with most hospital and specialty care accessed in Glasgow, Bowling Green, or Campbellsville. This reliance on external healthcare systems increases vulnerability during pandemic surges, when regional hospitals may experience capacity strain that limits access for Metcalfe residents.

A significant portion of the county’s population includes older adults, individuals with chronic health conditions, and low-income or transportation-limited households, all of whom face elevated risk of severe illness and barriers to timely medical care. Long-term care facilities, schools, childcare centers, and churches serve as key transmission environments, particularly in a county with strong community and family networks. Multi-generational households and close-contact work settings may accelerate spread during peak transmission periods.

Workforce patterns further heighten vulnerability. Many residents commute daily to employment centers in Warren, Barren, Monroe, and Adair Counties, increasing cross-county exposure and creating opportunities for rapid introduction of infectious diseases. Essential workers—including those in education, healthcare, retail, food processing, manufacturing, and agriculture—face higher occupational exposure and may have limited ability to work remotely during sustained outbreaks.

Additional vulnerabilities arise from limited broadband access and varying technological capacity, which can hinder remote work, virtual schooling, telehealth, and public-health communication during extended disruptions. Pandemic impacts can also strain critical infrastructure staffing, including EMS, utilities, public safety, and school operations, as absenteeism rises during disease surges.

Overall, Metcalfe County’s pandemic vulnerability reflects the combined effects of healthcare limitations, population characteristics, commuting patterns, and critical-infrastructure dependence, underscoring the importance of strong regional coordination, vaccination outreach, and community-based support systems.

Metcalfe County’s vulnerability is lower in terms of exposure given its small size, but infrastructure limitations raise risk. The county may rely heavily on adjacent counties for advanced care, diagnostic labs, and public health resources. Delays in detection and logistical support are key vulnerabilities.

Severe storms in Metcalfe County are countywide in extent and include a broad range of hazards such as severe thunderstorms, high winds, hail, lightning, and heavy rainfall. These events occur throughout the year but are most common from March through September, when atmospheric instability and strong frontal systems regularly impact south-central Kentucky. Severe storms often form rapidly and can affect any part of the county with little spatial predictability, making the entire population, infrastructure network, and agricultural sector uniformly exposed.

The most significant impacts typically arise from straight-line winds and intense thunderstorm downbursts, which can cause widespread tree damage, roof damage, power outages, and impacts to manufactured housing. Hail-producing storms also affect the county, with hail sizes typically ranging from 0.75 inches to over 2 inches in diameter during stronger events, posing risks to vehicles, roofs, crops, and outdoor equipment. Lightning is a persistent hazard and contributes to structural fires, power disruptions, and agricultural losses each year.

Localized flood-producing storms—particularly high-intensity summer thunderstorms—can overwhelm smaller creeks, roadside ditches, and culverts, creating secondary flooding hazards that affect rural roads and low-lying areas. Severe storms frequently interact with the county’s karst terrain, where rapid surface runoff can collect in sinkholes or depressions, worsening localized flooding even outside river or creek corridors.

Because severe thunderstorms are not spatially confined and can impact Edmonton, Sulphur Well, Summer Shade, Wisdom, Center, Randolph, and all rural communities with equal likelihood, Metcalfe County must treat severe storms as a non-spatial, region-wide hazard capable of producing both localized damage and widespread countywide impacts.

Past events / occurrence: Metcalfe County has recorded 78 severe storm events over 21 years (≈ 3.74 events annually).

The BRADD region’s probability of severe storms is rated High  based on annual frequency; this regional rating applies to Metcalfe County as well.

• Metcalfe: 80 severe storm events/21 years = 3.8 wind events annually

Vehicles, roofs, windows, utilities, roads, and culverts are vulnerable; straight-line winds  can down trees/power lines, causing outages from hours to weeks.

Increased stormwater runoff, localized flooding, tree loss, and impacts to fish/wildlife;  crop and livestock damage are common consequences.

Outdoor workers and people without timely warnings (boaters, campers, farmers, construction crews) are especially susceptible; damages can trigger brief  business closures where transport/telecom are affected.

Research indicates climate change is increasing the number of days with sufficient CAPE and vertical wind shear to produce severe storms (hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes), implying more frequent environments favorable to severe weather in the region.

Metcalfe County’s vulnerability to severe storms is moderate to high, reflecting its dispersed rural population, high reliance on overhead utilities, older and manufactured housing stock, and extensive agricultural operations. Straight-line winds and downbursts pose significant risk across the county, particularly for manufactured homes, barns, outbuildings, and aging residential structures that lack wind-resistant construction. Roof damage, siding loss, and structural compromise are common impacts during strong wind events. Rural households located along ridge lines or open fields are particularly susceptible to wind-related damage.

The county’s overhead electric distribution system increases vulnerability to prolonged power outages when severe storms bring down trees and utility lines. Extended outages disrupt households using electric HVAC, affect individuals dependent on medical equipment, and create operational challenges for schools, water systems, and small businesses. Volunteer fire departments and EMS face increased response demands during widespread outages and storm damage, especially when debris blocks rural roads.

Agriculture—a key economic sector in Metcalfe County—is highly vulnerable. High winds and hail can damage crops, livestock shelters, poultry houses, fencing, and storage facilities, while lightning can kill livestock or ignite field or structure fires. Heavy rainfall during severe storms may overwhelm small culverts and drainage infrastructure, contributing to flash flooding and erosion that damage farm roads, equipment, and pastureland.

Critical facilities such as schools, government buildings, emergency services, and long-term care facilities may experience HVAC failures, generator dependence, or access issues when storms impact local infrastructure. Communities with older buildings or limited sheltering options face increased risk during high-wind events, especially in areas with limited access to basements or reinforced safe spaces.

Overall, vulnerability in Metcalfe County is driven by the combination of aging or wind-sensitive structures, reliance on overhead utilities, agricultural exposure, dispersed rural development, and limited redundancy in critical infrastructure, making severe storms a persistent and impactful hazard requiring ongoing preparedness and mitigation.

Metcalfe County has experienced 80 severe storm events/21 years = 3.8 wind events annually.

Because of these factors, Metcalfe County experiences high vulnerability to severe storms. Edmonton reflects Metcalfe County’s overall history of winter storms, and therefore experiences high vulnerability as well.

Because terrorism is intentional and adversarial, traditional frequency-based risk assessments are not sufficient for evaluating potential impacts. Unlike natural hazards, terrorism cannot be forecasted or modeled using historical trends alone. Effective assessment must incorporate intelligence inputs, threat actor capabilities, and scenario planning to understand possible modes of attack and associated vulnerabilities.

At present, there is limited differentiation between types of terrorism that may affect the region. Distinguishing between domestic and international threats, as well as between physical, cyber, or hybrid forms of terrorism, can help clarify risk pathways and improve mitigation strategies. The region’s profile would also benefit from identifying and assessing critical infrastructure and “soft targets” that may be more susceptible to intentional acts, such as public gathering venues, utilities, schools, and government facilities.

Because terrorism is intentional and adversarial, you cannot rely solely on historical frequency to derive probability. Many risk models for terrorism must incorporate intelligence assessments, threat actor capabilities, and scenario planning.

While the page references terrorism conceptually, it does not currently include coordination protocols with law enforcement, fusion centers, or homeland security partners that monitor and share threat intelligence. Strengthening interagency coordination—particularly with local emergency management, police, and state agencies—would provide a more credible understanding of regional exposure and response capability.

Cascading and secondary effects of terrorism events, such as public panic, misinformation, economic disruption, and strain on emergency and health systems, are also important considerations. The social and psychological impacts of terrorism can be significant even when physical damage is limited, underscoring the need to plan for behavioral health support and long-term community recovery.

Additionally, the region’s profile does not currently evaluate local preparedness measures such as continuity of operations plans (COOP), security assessments, or mass-casualty response capacity, which are key indicators of resilience. Future updates should also consider emerging risks, such as cyber-physical attacks on utilities and critical networks, and how these may intersect with traditional forms of terrorism.

Finally, it is important to acknowledge both the limitations and sensitivities of terrorism-related data. Some information—such as specific target locations or threat intelligence—cannot be publicly shared due to security concerns. Nonetheless, transparency in describing the general methods, assumptions, and partnerships used to assess terrorism risk would enhance credibility while maintaining confidentiality.

Terrorism can destroy or damage buildings and critical lifelines (power, water/wastewater, transportation, and communications), with impacts dictated by the attack method and proximity to critical nodes.

Acts such as agro-terrorism or hazardous-materials release can contaminate soil, water, or wildlife habitat, and BRADD explicitly notes potential destruction of natural resources under certain attack types.

Intentional acts are designed to cause casualties, widespread fear, and economic disruption; BRADD highlights life-safety risks, psychological effects, and local economic shocks due to reduced participation and interrupted operations.

Climate stressors (e.g., pressures on marginalized populations, aging infrastructure, and periods of civil unrest) may elevate susceptibility to terrorism-related activities, including threats to infrastructure, property, and cyber/economic systems, even though overall climate-driven terrorism risk for the region remains low. 

Metcalfe County’s vulnerability to terrorism is low to moderate, shaped primarily by its rural character, limited number of high-density facilities, and reliance on regional infrastructure networks that could be indirectly affected by larger-scale incidents. While the county does not contain major symbolic targets or high-risk industrial complexes, it does host several facilities and systems—such as schools, government buildings, public-safety facilities, healthcare clinics, fuel stations, and small commercial hubs in Edmonton—that could experience operational disruption from intentional threats, hoaxes, or cyber incidents. Vulnerability also extends to key gathering places such as churches, community centers, and athletic venues that support regular public activities.

Critical infrastructure in the county—including electric utilities, telecommunications networks, water systems, and transportation corridors—is more vulnerable to cyberattacks or service disruptions than to physical attacks. Because many systems serve both Metcalfe County and surrounding regions, dependence on shared infrastructure increases the potential for cascading impacts if regional service providers experience targeted cyberactivity, ransomware, or operational interference. Limited redundancy in rural internet and power distribution likewise heightens consequences when disruptions occur.

The county’s small public-safety workforce, volunteer-based fire departments, and limited specialized response assets also increase vulnerability by reducing the ability to respond quickly to complex or coordinated incidents. Schools, long-term care facilities, and government offices may face challenges implementing lockdown procedures, continuity plans, or rapid communication during a threat event. Social vulnerability indicators—including limited access to broadband, fewer healthcare resources, and pockets of economic disadvantage—can further complicate emergency messaging and community response.

Although the probability of a terrorist attack in Metcalfe County is low, the county remains vulnerable to cyber intrusions, infrastructure disruptions, threats to soft targets, and regional spillover effects, underscoring the importance of emergency planning, interagency coordination, and continuity-of-operations planning for public institutions.

Metcalfe County’s small population and limited concentration of critical facilities result in low vulnerability to terrorism. Most essential services are located within the City of Edmonton, including schools, public offices, and emergency services. While the likelihood of targeted acts is minimal, the county’s rural geography may delay information flow and response coordination. Maintaining regional partnerships and public awareness are key to sustaining preparedness for intentional threats.

Tornado intensity in Metcalfe County typically ranges from EF0 to EF2, though stronger events remain possible. Straight-line winds and severe storms accompanying tornadic systems can produce impacts similar to lower-end tornadoes. Tornadoes can damage homes, manufactured housing, barns, large-span structures, utilities, trees, and vehicles.

From 2000–2025, Metcalfe County experienced 10 tornadoes (≈ 40% chance of at least one tornado in a given year). Since 1950, tornadoes that touched down in the county have caused 51 injuries and 2 deaths. Regional context includes the December 10–11, 2021 outbreak, with multiple long-track and high-end events affecting neighboring counties.

Tornado exposure is countywide and non-spatial at planning scale; consequences concentrate where people and assets are located (e.g. Edmonton, major corridors, and high-occupancy or vulnerable housing areas such as mobile homes).

BRADD rates overall regional probability for tornadoes as high, based on historical frequency, wind-zone classification, and FEMA definitions. Metcalfe County’s recent history (10 events/25 years) supports an ongoing, recurring likelihood at the county scale.

Tornadoes can damage or destroy homes and businesses, topple transmission and distribution lines, block roads and bridges with debris, and interrupt power, communications, and water/wastewater services.

Tornadoes can fell trees, damage crops and farm structures, degrade habitats, and increase fire risk where dead or downed timber is not removed.

Tornadoes can cause deaths and injuries, trigger temporary but significant economic disruption, and reduce local revenue and productivity during recovery.

While attribution is complex at tornado scale, research indicates fewer “one-tornado” days and more multi-tornado cluster days, linked to increases in days with high CAPE and sufficient vertical wind shear; this implies more days conducive to severe storms—a planning consideration for warning, sheltering, and surge response.

Metcalfe County’s vulnerability to tornadoes is moderate to high, driven by the prevalence of manufactured housing, aging site-built structures, and limited access to reinforced safe rooms across schools, public facilities, and rural residences. Manufactured homes and older dwellings without modern wind-resistant construction are highly susceptible to damage even from lower-intensity tornadoes, while large-span agricultural structures such as poultry houses and barns face significant risk of roof failure or collapse. Overhead utilities and tree-lined rural roads increase the likelihood of extended power outages and blocked access routes, hindering emergency response. Social factors—including elderly residents living alone, limited transportation, inconsistent NOAA Weather Radio coverage, and gaps in cell service—further heighten vulnerability by delaying warnings or limiting sheltering options. Overall, Metcalfe County’s dispersed population, wind-sensitive structures, and infrastructure constraints amplify the impacts of tornadic events.

Between 2000 and 2021, Metcalfe County has experienced 8 tornadoes/21years =33% chance of a tornado happening in a given year.

Since 1950, tornadoes that touched down in Metcalfe County have caused 7 injuries and 3 deaths.

Metcalfe County does not contain any census tracts wherein at least 25% of all housing units are mobile homes.

Because of these factors, Metcalfe County experiences high vulnerability to tornadoes. Edmonton reflects Metcalfe County’s overall history of tornado events, and therefore experiences high vulnerability as well.

Extent is characterized by the number and severity of winter storm, heavy snow, and ice storm events (including federally declared disasters). The BRADD region recorded multiple FEMA winter-storm disaster declarations between 2000 and 2020 and 66 reportable winter storm events in that period.

Exposure is countywide (non-spatial at the planning scale), with impacts most evident where people, infrastructure, and travel corridors concentrate (e.g., incorporated cities and major roads).

From 2000–2025, Metcalfe County experienced 20 severe winter storms, including a 2015 winter storm event that caused one individual to lose their life from hypothermia.

The probability of winter storms in Metcalfe County is high, with snow, freezing rain, sleet, ice storms, and extreme cold occurring regularly during most winter seasons. Historically, the county experiences multiple winter-weather events each year, though severity varies widely depending on storm track and temperature gradients. Light snow and brief freezing-rain episodes occur annually, while more disruptive storms—such as heavy snowfalls, significant icing, or mixed-precipitation events—occur every 2–4 years. Ice storms represent one of the region’s most damaging winter hazards, given the county’s heavy tree cover and reliance on overhead power lines, and can lead to prolonged outages even during moderate-accumulation events. Arctic outbreaks contributing to dangerously low wind chills occur several times each winter, often accompanying or following precipitation events that complicate response and recovery. Climate variability also creates frequent freeze–thaw cycles that increase the likelihood of black ice, roadway hazards, and infrastructure stress. Overall, Metcalfe County should expect recurrent winter-weather impacts each year, with periodic high-impact storms that disrupt transportation, utilities, schools, and emergency services.

Winter storms can damage roofs under snow load, break limbs that fall onto buildings and vehicles, down power lines, and block roads and bridges with snow/ice and debris; even modest icing can disrupt utilities and emergency response.

Extended snow/ice cover can alter habitats and timing of species behavior; out-of-season events can injure or kill vegetation and damage crops and trees.

Hazardous travel, power outages, and isolation elevate risks for households—especially older adults or people with medical needs—while business closures and school disruptions impose community-wide costs.

Changing winter characteristics: warmer winters overall, fewer heavy snowmelt events, more precipitation falling as rain/ice in the Southeast, a lengthening freeze-free season, and related economic and infrastructure stresses—factors that may shift Allen County’s winter risk mix toward icing events and infrastructure sensitivity even as extreme cold snaps still occur.

The table below displays ice storm, winter storms, and heavy snow events that were reported to NOAA and NWS between 2000 and 2020. While not each of these events received a FEMA declaration, each showed clear characteristics of a severe winter storm.

Between 2000 and 2020, NOAA and NWS reported 16 severe winter storms in Metcalfe County.

On average, Metcalfe County has experienced 6 winter storm events/21 years. This equates to a 0.29% chance of a winter storm event in Metcalfe County annually.

In February of 2016, 10 to 14 inches of snow accumulated across Metcalfe County.

Because of these factors, Metcalfe County experiences moderate vulnerability to winter storm events. Edmonton reflects Metcalfe County’s overall history of winter storms, and therefore experiences moderate vulnerability as well.