Hazards in Hart County

Quality of Dam Infrastructure

The American Society of Civil Engineers gave Kentucky a D+ on dam infrastructure, which is only slightly better than the national average. The average US dam is 60 years old, and most dams in Kentucky are over 50. As of 2019, 80 dams in the state are classified as two-fold risks, meaning that they are both high hazards and in poor or unsatisfactory condition. 47% of these 80 dams received that rating partially because they cannot hold enough rain during catastrophic storms. 89% of high hazard dams in Kentucky do not have complete emergency action plans on file with the state. 74% have simplified draft plans, but these are not widely shared and have not been adopted by local officials.

Types of Dam Failure

There are three types of Dam Failure:

1. Structural: This common cause is responsible for nearly 30% of all dam failure in the United States. Structural failure of a dam occurs when there is a rupture in the dam or its foundation.
2. Mechanical: Refers to the failure or malfunctioning of gates, conduits, or valves.
3. Hydraulic: Occurs when the uncontrolled flow of water over the top, around, and adjacent to the dam erodes its foundation. Hydraulic failure is the cause of approximately 34% of all dam failures.

Dam failure in Hart County could result in localized to significant downstream flooding, depending on the size and location of the dam involved. The county contains a mix of small agricultural impoundments, private farm ponds, and several NRCS flood-control structures designed for stormwater management and erosion control. While these dams are relatively small compared to regional high-hazard dams, failure could still produce rapid downstream inundation, erosion of roadways, damage to culverts and bridges, and flooding of agricultural lands, homes, or outbuildings located in narrow valleys.

Because Hart County borders the Green River and relies on a network of tributaries—such as Lynn Camp Creek, Bacon Creek, and Cub Run—dam failure could exacerbate preexisting flood conditions, particularly during heavy rainfall. Failure of even a low-hazard dam during high-flow periods can increase inundation depth, accelerate flow velocity, transport debris, and temporarily alter stream channels. In steep or confined terrain, warning time would be extremely limited, making downstream areas particularly vulnerable.

History of Dam Failure

Hart County has no record of catastrophic dam failures, but the county has experienced dam-related issues consistent with rural Kentucky, including:

• Erosion, piping, and seepage at aging agricultural dams,
• Localized overtopping during high-intensity rain events,
• Maintenance deficiencies documented in periodic NRCS and Division of Water inspections, and
• Emergency drawdowns or repairs to alleviate pressure on small impoundments.

While these incidents have not resulted in major downstream flooding, they demonstrate the county’s vulnerability to structural deterioration, extreme precipitation, and limited maintenance resources.

Regional dam-failure events—such as impacts along the Green River basin in nearby counties, statewide overtopping incidents during the 2010 and 2021 flood years, and emergency actions taken at small farm ponds during heavy storms—provide relevant context for Hart County. These events show that prolonged rainfall, soil saturation, and undersized spillways are recurring stressors for older dams across the BRADD region.

Hart County’s risk is heightened by its concentration of small, privately owned dams, many of which were constructed decades ago and may not meet current design standards or inspection frequency. Because private dams fall outside routine oversight unless classified as high-hazard, their vulnerabilities may remain unnoticed until severe weather exposes structural weaknesses.

Probability

The probability of a dam failure in Hart County is considered low, but the potential consequences warrant continued monitoring and mitigation. Most dams within the county are small agricultural or private impoundments, which generally present a lower failure consequence but may have a higher likelihood of structural issues due to age, limited maintenance, and lack of formal inspection requirements. These smaller dams are more susceptible to problems such as seepage, erosion, spillway blockage, and overtopping during periods of intense rainfall.

Hart County does not contain large high-hazard dams, but the county’s hilly terrain, narrow valleys, and drainage characteristics mean that failure of even a small structure could result in rapid downstream flow with little warning. Climate trends indicating more frequent extreme precipitation events also increase stress on embankments and spillways, modestly raising the long-term likelihood of failure or overtopping.

Based on historical patterns in the region, continued aging of private dams, and projected increases in heavy rainfall, Hart County should plan for a low-probability but persistent risk, with the potential for occasional dam-related incidents or near-failures during severe storm seasons.

Built Environment:

A breach can produce rapid inundation that damages or destroys buildings, blocks roads with debris, disrupts traffic and emergency services, and threatens water/wastewater systems—especially if a reservoir supplies drinking water.

Natural Environment:

Floodwaves can scour channels, mobilize debris and contaminants, and disrupt aquatic habitats and riparian systems.

Social Environment:

Fast-arriving floodwaters elevate life-safety risk, particularly for people living/working in low-lying downstream areas with limited warning or evacuation options.

Climate Impacts on Dam Failure:

Increasingly intense rainfall, longer wet periods, and more frequent extreme storm events can raise hydraulic loading on dams, heighten the risk of overtopping, accelerate erosion of embankments and spillways, and reduce warning/response time. Climate-driven shifts can also stress aging infrastructure and complicate reservoir operations (e.g., balancing flood control with drought storage), making proactive maintenance, updated hydrologic/hydraulic studies, and EAP exercises even more critical.

Hart County’s vulnerability to dam failure is moderate, shaped by the county’s large number of small, privately owned agricultural dams and the prevalence of rural residences, farms, and local roadways located downstream of these structures. Many of the county’s dams were built decades ago and may not meet current engineering standards, especially if maintenance has been deferred or ownership has changed over time. Because most small dams are not classified as high-hazard, they are not subject to frequent regulatory inspection, which increases the likelihood that structural deterioration or spillway obstructions go undetected.

Downstream areas most at risk include narrow valleys, creek corridors, rural road crossings, and low-lying farmsteads, where even a limited breach could cause rapid flooding with little warning. Manufactured homes, older structures with low elevation, and homes located near small impoundments face elevated exposure. Roadway embankments, culverts, and small bridges are also vulnerable to washout during sudden releases of water.

Emergency-response challenges—such as the county’s rural topography, limited ingress and egress routes, and long travel distances between communities—increase the consequences of a failure event. Additionally, Hart County’s reliance on regional recreation, small businesses, and dispersed agricultural operations means that even localized damage can have broader community impacts.

Vulnerability centers on downstream settlements and critical routes that could be cut off. Even moderate failures can deposit debris that blocks access and delays emergency services. Adoption and exercising of EAP elements with local responders can mitigate life-safety risks despite the low frequency of events.

Location/Extent

Drought affects the entirety of Hart County, with especially significant consequences in rural agricultural areas that rely on dependable irrigation and livestock water. During extended dry periods, Barren River Lake levels can drop, affecting recreation and municipal supply. Historical droughts have driven soil-moisture deficits exceeding ~50% and reduced viability of staple crops such as corn and soybeans.

Sensitivity is elevated for row-crop and pasture lands, small public water systems or systems with leakage/limited storage, and surface-water/groundwater users lacking redundant sources. BRADD’s Water System Vulnerability to Drought resource further highlights system-level considerations for the region.

Past Events

Notable events include the 2012 drought, when much of Kentucky—including Hart County—reached D3 (Extreme Drought) on the U.S. Drought Monitor, with widespread agricultural losses, elevated fire risk, and water shortages. From 2000–2025, Hart County experienced ~53 weeks of D2 (Moderate) and ~8 weeks of D3 (Severe/Extreme) drought; USDA issued drought disaster declarations in 2022 and 2023 for documented production losses.

Probability

Long-term monitoring indicates drought is a recurrent hazard. Hart County experienced 597 total weeks of drought over the last 25 years—about a 46% chance that any given week features drought conditions. Projections suggest drought likelihood may increase with climate change as rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns extend dry periods.

Built Environment:

Lower reservoir and well levels can strain municipal water systems, increase infrastructure operating costs (e.g., pumping/energy), and trigger usage restrictions for businesses and institutions; prolonged deficits can reduce fire-flow availability for rural systems.

Natural Environment:

Drought reduces streamflow and aquatic habitat quality, stresses forests and grasslands, and can degrade water quality as lower volumes concentrate pollutants.

Social Environment:

The largest local effects are economic losses in agriculture (crop failures, livestock stress, higher irrigation costs) and secondary risks such as increased wildfire potential; households and small businesses can face water shortages and higher costs.

Climate Impacts on Dam Failure:

Rising temperatures increase evapotranspiration and soil‐moisture loss, while shifting precipitation patterns can produce longer dry spells punctuated by intense storms that do little to recharge groundwater. Hotter summers elevate water demand, stress crops and livestock, worsen algal blooms and other water-quality issues in low flows, and compound risks when heat waves coincide with drought—intensifying health, agricultural, and infrastructure impacts across Edmonson County.

Drought Vulnerability in the BRADD Region

Soil Susceptibility

Soil’s susceptibility to drought varies due to a myriad of factors. The map below depicts vulnerability to drought based on soil type from a moisture retention and availability perspective. For example a shallow fragipan limits the depth of the soil making it more vulnerable to moisture loss. Grey areas indicate that no soil data was available due to lakes, heavily urbanized areas, or strip mining. Susceptibility to Drought Scores were established using the criteria of infiltration, water movement, and water supply for the soils defined in the NRCS Soil Surveys that encompass the state.

Hart County’s drought vulnerability is moderate to low, shaped by its rural character, widespread private wells, and reliance on pasture-based and small-scale agricultural operations. Older adults and medically vulnerable residents face elevated heat risk during drought periods. Agricultural producers—particularly livestock and hay operations—are highly susceptible to economic losses during extended dry spells. Rural water associations and households using private wells may face capacity limitations or costly maintenance during prolonged drought. Limited redundancy in some rural water systems and the county’s dispersed population increase response challenges during severe drought events.

Hart County’s public water system demonstrates low to moderate vulnerability to drought.

The soil susceptibility map indicates that large swaths of Hart County’s soil experience moderately high susceptibility to drought.

Overall, Hart County has a moderately high vulnerability to drought. Because drought is a non-spatial hazard, this same analysis can be applied to its respective cities – Bonnieville, Horse Cave, and Munfordville.

Location/Extent

Kentucky is affected by nearby seismic zones—New Madrid (most active east of the Rockies) and Wabash Valley (capable of M5.5–6.0 damage near population centers). Potential shaking in Butler County ranges from weak/noticeable (MMI II–IV) during distant events to light–moderate (MMI V–VI) in rarer, larger scenarios; secondary effects can include nonstructural damage, minor slope instability, and utility disruptions. The eastern U.S. crust transmits shaking efficiently, so distant earthquakes can be widely felt.

Severity is commonly expressed by earthquake magnitude and by shaking intensity (Modified Mercalli Scale). Butler County’s worst-case consequences depend on regional event size/distance and local amplification/liquefaction potential.

Past Events

Hart County has experienced no recorded damaging earthquakes ≥M3 within its boundaries, but residents have periodically felt mild shaking from events originating in nearby seismic zones. Small earthquakes associated with the East Tennessee Seismic Zone (ETSZ) and Wabash Valley Seismic Zone (WVSZ) have produced weak, widely felt tremors across south-central Kentucky, occasionally reported by residents in Hart, Edmonson, Green, and Barren Counties.

Regionally, the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) remains the most significant historical influence. The 1811–1812 New Madrid earthquakes generated strong shaking across Kentucky, including the area that would become Hart County, though no detailed local accounts exist due to sparse settlement at the time. More recent moderate regional events—such as earthquakes in central Tennessee (M4.4 in 2017), western Kentucky and southern Illinois, and small ETSZ events during the 2010s—were felt across the BRADD region due to the efficient transmission of seismic waves through eastern U.S. bedrock.

Although Hart County has not experienced structural damage from past earthquakes, the consistent pattern of regionally felt events reinforces the county’s exposure to low-probability but potentially high-consequence seismic hazards linked to the larger NMSZ, WVSZ, and ETSZ systems.

Probability

The probability of a damaging earthquake in Hart County is considered low, but the probability of felt seismic activity is moderate due to the county’s proximity to three major regional seismic zones: the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) to the west, the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone (WVSZ) to the northwest, and the East Tennessee Seismic Zone (ETSZ) to the southeast. Small, weak earthquakes originating in these zones occur regularly and may be felt in Hart County every few years, typically producing MMI II–IV shaking.

Moderate shaking (MMI V–VI) is possible within a 50-year planning horizon, primarily from events in the ETSZ or WVSZ. A large New Madrid earthquake—while a low-probability, high-consequence event—could produce widespread impacts across the region, including Hart County, despite the distance from the epicenter.

Climate change does not influence earthquake probability, but increasing rainfall variability and flood-soil saturation may indirectly affect slope stability or soil response during shaking. Overall, Hart County should plan for occasional felt events and maintain readiness for rare but potentially consequential regional earthquakes.

An earthquake could result in structural damage to older buildings, critical facilities, and infrastructure not designed to modern seismic codes. Bridges, utilities, and water systems could sustain significant damage, leading to service disruptions. Secondary impacts might include landslides in certain areas, hazardous material spills, and challenges in emergency response due to blocked roads and damaged communication systems. Economic losses could be substantial, particularly for uninsured property owners.

Built Environment:

Shaking can damage homes and business structures, collapse unreinforced elements, and disrupt roads/bridges, power, water/wastewater, and telecom. Post-event debris and utility outages can hinder emergency response.

Natural Environment:

Secondary effects—liquefaction, landslides, fires, and hazmat releases—can degrade soils, waterways, and habitats.

Social Environment:

Transportation disruption, hospital surge, power/water interruptions, and communications overload elevate life-safety risk and complicate reunification and care for vulnerable groups (children, older adults, LEP populations).

Climate Impacts on Earthquakes:

While climate change does not drive tectonic earthquakes, hydrologic extremes (prolonged drought, heavy precipitation, groundwater withdrawal/recharge) may alter subsurface stresses in limited contexts. The BRADD region has an overall low earthquake risk, so any climate influence on local frequency/severity is likely minor relative to tectonic controls.

Earthquake Vulnerability in Allen County

Butler County is mapped in a “high perceived shaking” zone for high-magnitude regional scenarios and contains significant local fault lines. Because earthquakes are non-spatial at the county scale, this vulnerability characterization applies countywide (including Morgantown, Rochester, and Woodbury). Key sensitivity factors remain older/unnretrofitted buildings, critical facilities, bridges, and lifelines on softer soils or in potential liquefaction areas.

Hart County’s vulnerability to earthquakes is low to moderate, shaped by its rural building stock, presence of older homes, and limited seismic design in structures built prior to modern building codes. Unreinforced masonry buildings, older brick structures in small communities, and long-span roofs (gyms, warehouses, barns) are particularly susceptible to shaking-related damage. Manufactured housing, while lighter in weight, may shift or sustain anchoring failures during moderate ground motion.

Critical facilities constructed before current seismic standards—such as schools, first-response buildings, and water/wastewater infrastructure—may experience nonstructural failures (ceiling collapses, broken piping, equipment damage) even during lower-intensity shaking. Underground utilities may also be vulnerable to joint separation or service disruption.

Populations most vulnerable include older adults, residents in older or poorly anchored structures, and households with limited resources for retrofitting or repairs. Rural road networks, located in karst terrain and along creek valleys, may experience localized slope instability or shoulder failures that complicate emergency response. While catastrophic impacts are unlikely, even moderate earthquakes could produce disruptive, system-wide effects due to the county’s reliance on regional healthcare, utilities, and emergency-services support.

Hart County is within the “light” perceived shaking zone for a high magnitude earthquake and does not contain significant fault lines.

Because of these factors, Hart County experiences low vulnerability to earthquakes. Because earthquakes are non-spatial hazards, it can be assumed that this analysis should be applied to Hart County’s respective cities – Bonnieville, Horse Cave, and Munfordville.

Location/Extent

Location and Extent

Extreme temperature hazards in Hart County include both excessive heat and extreme cold. These conditions can affect the entire county, though the severity of impacts varies by housing quality, access to heating and cooling, and resident vulnerability.

Excessive heat typically occurs during late summer, when high temperatures combine with elevated humidity to produce heat index values exceeding 100–105°F. These events strain home cooling systems, increase energy demand, and pose severe health risks for older adults, outdoor workers, young children, and households without adequate air conditioning. Manufactured homes and older structures with limited insulation face the highest levels of interior heat buildup.

Extreme cold and dangerous wind chills occur most often from December through February. Low temperatures can freeze pipes, strain electric heating systems, and stress private well infrastructure. Rural homes—particularly those in exposed areas or with aging insulation—face increased vulnerability during cold snaps. Ice accumulation from winter precipitation can exacerbate cold-related challenges by damaging power lines and prolonging outages.

Both heat and cold events can be intensified by Hart County’s rural nature, limited access to cooling/warming centers, and the distance some residents must travel to reach services during hazardous conditions.

Historical Occurrences

Cold. Within the regional record (2010–2021), Hart County had one wind chill watch (2014) and one wind chill warning (2015); these events were issued region-wide.

Heat. Across 2010–2021, the BRADD region recorded 18 excessive heat watches and 71 excessive heat warnings; county-level breakdowns show Hart County averaged ~27.7 extreme-heat days per year (2010–2016).

Probability

Expect recurrent heat seasons with periodic advisory/warning episodes and less frequent but hazardous cold outbreaks. While year-to-year frequency varies, local planning should assume annual heat advisories are likely, with occasional excessive-heat warnings, and intermittent extreme-cold events in some winters.

Extreme heat can lead to heat exhaustion and heatstroke, particularly in outdoor workers, the elderly, and low-income households without access to cooling. It also increases energy demand, raising utility costs and the likelihood of power outages. Severe cold poses risks of frostbite, hypothermia, and infrastructure damage, including frozen pipes and malfunctioning heating systems. Both extremes can disrupt agricultural yields, livestock health, and local economies.

Built Environment:

Cold can burst buried water pipes, strain metal bridge members, and affect trucking/rail operations (e.g., diesel gelling). Heat can soften asphalt, stress vehicle cooling systems and rail operations, and increase water demand, sometimes reducing fire-flow availability.

Natural Environment:

Cold snaps threaten livestock and wildlife and can freeze ponds/streams. Heat can degrade water quality, drive algal blooms, and reduce crop yields and dairy productivity.

Social Environment:

Cold elevates exposure risks for people without adequate shelter or heat and can increase CO poisoning and fire risk; both cold and heat create economic losses (e.g., utility repair, agriculture) and can trigger business/school closures. Heat is the leading U.S. weather-related killer, with illnesses from fatigue to heat stroke.

Climate Impacts on Extreme Temperatures:

Climate change models predict and increase in overall temperature globally for the coming decades, including the BRADD region. With a potential rise of several degrees Fahrenheit, multiple services, systems, and activities face disruption and impact. Temperature increases this small may not seem threatening, but the cumulative impacts will affect weather events, human health, and ecosystem functions, along with economic and social issues related to energy use and cost of living.

Working with  AT&T’s Climate Resilient Communities Program and the  Climate Risk and Resilience (ClimRR) Portal, BRADD identified additional opportunities for hazard mitigation action items associated with climate impacts for Extreme Temperatures in the Barren River Region. To view an interactive report of these findings,   click here.

Hart County’s vulnerability to extreme temperatures is moderate to high, shaped by its rural housing stock, high proportion of manufactured homes, and dependence on electric or propane heating and cooling systems. Many older homes lack adequate insulation or weatherization, increasing indoor heat buildup during summer and heightening the risk of frozen pipes or heating failures during winter cold snaps. Households relying on private wells are particularly vulnerable during prolonged cold, as frozen pumps or loss of power can disrupt water access.

Populations at greatest risk during extreme heat include older adults, young children, outdoor laborers, and residents without reliable air conditioning or the financial means to manage high electricity costs. During extreme cold, low-income households, those using space heaters or outdated HVAC systems, and individuals with limited ability to travel to warming centers face elevated exposure. Rural isolation, long emergency response times, and inconsistent broadband coverage further complicate outreach and assistance during severe temperature events.

Essential facilities such as schools, long-term care homes, and EMS also face operational strain during prolonged heat or cold, especially when staff, equipment, or energy supply systems are stressed. Supply-chain disruptions, increased utility demand, and potential power outages add to the county’s vulnerability, as many rural areas lack redundancy in electrical infrastructure.

Since 2010, Hart County experienced one wind chill watch (2014) and one wind chill warning (2015).

At a county scale, extreme temperatures are non-spatial, so exposure is countywide. Hart County’s extreme cold vulnerability is rated moderate overall (with Munfordville noted as high) based on past watches/warnings and sensitivity to power-outage cold snaps.

For extreme heat, Hart shows moderate vulnerability, reflecting its ~28 heat-days/year baseline and sensitivity in smaller urban areas to urban heat island effects.

Unless otherwise noted, Bonnieville, Horse Cave, and Munfordville reflect Hart County’s overall history of extreme temperature, and therefore experience moderate vulnerability as well.

Flooding in Hart County includes riverine flooding, flash flooding, and localized or poor-drainage flooding, with impacts shaped by the county’s mix of river valleys, steep headwater basins, and extensive karst features. The Green River, Nolin River, and numerous tributaries—including Bacon Creek, Lynn Camp Creek, Bear Creek, and Lick Creek—can rise rapidly during heavy rainfall, inundating low-lying roads, agricultural areas, and river-adjacent neighborhoods. Riverine flooding is most prominent near Munfordville, Bonnieville, Horse Cave, and rural stretches along the Green River corridor.

Flash flooding occurs frequently in narrow hollows, steep terrain, and roadway low-water crossings, where intense rainfall can quickly overtop roadways, wash out culverts, and cause bank erosion. Areas with undersized drainage systems—particularly in older developed areas—experience recurring issues during high-intensity storms.

Hart County’s widespread karst landscape introduces additional flood dynamics. Sinkholes, closed depressions, and losing streams can capture stormwater when inlets clog or soils become saturated, resulting in sudden, localized flooding even outside mapped Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs). Agricultural lands and rural roads overlying sinkhole plains often experience recurring ponding and drainage problems.

Flooding affects the entire county, but the most severe impacts occur along river corridors, in steep or confined drainage basins, and at numerous low-water crossings typical of rural Hart County.

Repetitive-Loss & Severe Repetitive-Loss Properties

Hart County has very few repetitive-loss (RL) or severe repetitive-loss (SRL) properties under FEMA’s definitions. The unincorporated county, as well as the Cities of Bonnieville and Horse Cave, each have zero RL or SRL properties under both the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) criteria.

The City of Munfordville, however, has one (1) property with RL/SRL history. This structure is a single-family residence. Under FEMA classifications, this property is not considered an NFIP Repetitive-Loss or NFIP Severe Repetitive-Loss property. However, under the FMA definitions, it qualifies as both a Repetitive-Loss (RL) and Severe Repetitive-Loss (SRL) property. There are no 2–4 family occupancy properties or non-residential properties in Munfordville that meet RL or SRL criteria under either definition.

This pattern indicates that although Hart County experiences widespread flood exposure, the overall number of repetitive-loss structures is extremely low, reflecting its rural development profile and the limited concentration of flood-prone residential clusters.

Hart County experienced 39 flood events over 20 years (~2 events/year). This places Hart County in the upper-range of regional flood frequency.

Exposure in Hart County is countywide, with riverine flooding along the Green River, Nolin River, and their associated tributaries; flash flooding in steep headwater basins, narrow hollows, and at rural low-water crossings; and localized or poor-drainage flooding within the Cities of Munfordville, Bonnieville, Horse Cave, and other small communities. Low-lying recreation areas, agricultural lands, and river-adjacent facilities also experience periodic inundation during high-water events. Hart County’s extensive karst terrain—particularly in areas surrounding Horse Cave, Cave City, and broad sinkhole plains—can concentrate stormwater, leading to sudden, localized flooding when sinkhole inlets clog, depressions fill, or soils become saturated.

Click Here to view a summary of all past Disaster Declarations in the BRADD Region.

Below you will find a listing of past NOAA Flood and Flash-Flood Events from 2000-2020 for Hart County.

Flooding in Hart County is a high-probability hazard, driven by frequent heavy-rainfall events, the county’s extensive river and stream network, and its karst landscape. Historical records indicate multiple flood or flash-flood events annually, with storm frequency increasing during spring and early summer when convective systems are most active. The Green River and Nolin River corridors experience periodic high water during multi-day rain events, while smaller tributaries—such as Bacon Creek, Lynn Camp Creek, Bear Creek, and Lick Creek—respond quickly to intense rainfall, creating short-notice flash-flood conditions.

Localized flooding is also common in karst areas, where sinkholes or drainage inlets can clog, leading to temporary ponding even outside mapped Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs). Climate projections suggesting more frequent high-intensity rainfall events—particularly storms producing one inch or more of rain in a short period—may modestly increase flood probability over coming decades. For planning purposes, Hart County should expect recurring annual flood impacts, with several events capable of disrupting transportation or affecting structures each year and more significant riverine or flash-flood events occurring every few years.

Extreme heat can lead to heat exhaustion and heatstroke, particularly in outdoor workers, the elderly, and low-income households without access to cooling. It also increases energy demand, raising utility costs and the likelihood of power outages. Severe cold poses risks of frostbite, hypothermia, and infrastructure damage, including frozen pipes and malfunctioning heating systems. Both extremes can disrupt agricultural yields, livestock health, and local economies.

Built Environment:

Flooding can cause structural damage to both residential and commercial buildings and destroy furnishing and inventory.
Flooding will causes inconvenience or stoppage to many system. Transportation systems such as roads and railways become unpassable. Large amounts of water from a flood can affect water management systems such as the backup or hiatus of drainage, sanitary, and sewer systems. As heavy rains persist during a flood event, excess water drains into the ground water system. This causes the water table to rise and cause further ground water floods. If chemicals are mixed with flood waters, this can contaminate the ground water, a common source of fresh water for communities.

Natural Environment:

As flood waters engulf the surrounding natural environment, they are saturated with chemicals and other substances associated with the manmade environment that they have also been in contact with. As these abnormal waters settle and flows through natural ecosystems they can alter and even destroy both plant and animal life. When the flow of flood waters becomes so immense, it can physically destroy or uproot naturally growing vegetation and also drive specific species of animals out of their natural habitats for good.

Social Environment:

People
People with property located in the floodplain or within areas subject to seepage are vulnerable to flooding. Stoppage to transportation systems can make it very difficult for isolated populations to receive aid or escape breeching flood waters. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly or people who need medical attention, may be temporarily cut off from accessing life-saving resources.

Economy
Floods can affect local economies by disrupting transportation systems needed for people to get to and from work and destroying places of business and means of production. When flooding occurs in more rural areas, livestock and agricultural system will be affected. Crops can be destroyed in the growing season, or prevent from seeding in the off season. Large insurance payouts to residents or business owners who have procured flood insurance might also have an economic impact.

Climate Impacts on Flooding:

Climate change models predict and increase in overall temperature globally for the coming decades, including the BRADD region. With a potential rise of several degrees Fahrenheit, multiple services, systems, and activities face disruption and impact. Temperature increases this small may not seem threatening, but the cumulative impacts will affect weather events, human health, and ecosystem functions, along with economic and social issues related to energy use and cost of living.

Working with  AT&T’s Climate Resilient Communities Program and the  Climate Risk and Resilience (ClimRR) Portal, BRADD identified additional opportunities for hazard mitigation action items associated with climate impacts for flooding in the Barren River Region. To view an interactive report of these findings,   click here.

Hart County’s vulnerability to flooding is moderate to high, shaped by its river corridors, steep drainage basins, low-water crossings, and karst topography. Communities located near the Green River and Nolin River, as well as structures and farms located along major tributaries, face increased exposure to inundation during prolonged rainfall. Rural areas with limited drainage infrastructure, older culverts, or undersized road crossings are particularly susceptible to washouts and access disruptions.

While the number of FEMA-classified repetitive-loss structures is low, many homes—especially older residences and manufactured housing—remain sensitive to flooding due to limited elevation, low foundation heights, or proximity to drainage paths. Karst-dense areas add unique vulnerability: blocked sinkhole inlets or saturated soils can cause sudden, localized flooding that is unpredictable and difficult to map. Agricultural operations may also experience repeated impacts when fields, fences, or access roads flood during storm seasons.

Populations most at risk include households with limited mobility, limited vehicle access, or medical dependencies, as well as residents living in low-lying rural areas where emergency response and evacuation are constrained by distance and narrow road networks. Critical facilities near stream corridors or in areas prone to access disruptions may face temporary operational challenges. Continued maintenance of drainage systems, improvements to road crossings, and public education on flood safety are key to reducing vulnerability across the county.

Between 2000 and 2025, Hart County has had 39 flood events. Further, Hart County has received FEMA Disaster Declarations as a result of flooding in 2003, 2004 (2), 2008, 2009, 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2021. Overall, Hart County experiences high vulnerability to flood events. The risk for Hart County’s cities is analyzed below.

The City of Bonnieville has had one historic occurrence of flood and flash-flood events since 2000. Its vulnerability is low.

The City of Horse Cave has had seven historic occurrences of flood and flash-flood events since 2000. Its vulnerability is medium.

The City of Munfordville has had one historic occurrence of flood and flash-flood events since 2000. Its vulnerability is low.

The extent of a hazardous materials release is characterized by the type of substance, quantity released, state (gas, liquid, solid), dispersion behavior, and weather/terrain conditions. Releases may be constrained and local (e.g. a leaking drum or tank) or large and far-reaching (e.g. vapors spreading over multiple miles, groundwater contamination migrating). Depending on the chemical’s toxicity, volatility, and persistence, an incident could produce acute health effects, long-term environmental harm, or chronic exposure zones. In the BRADD region, credible scenarios include a small spill alongside a highway, a rail car release near populated areas, or a storage tank failure, each producing different spatial footprints and hazard zones.

The BRADD region has a record of hazardous materials incidents, particularly associated with transportation and industrial operations. Kentucky has experienced several costly hazmat transit incidents in recent years. In rail transport, derailments involving chemical cargo have spurred evacuations and environmental response. For example, in 2007, a major derailment in Kentucky released hazardous materials and required area evacuation. Nationally and regionally, chemical spills from industrial plants have caused injury, property damage, and remediation efforts. Some incidents, such as the 1981 Louisville sewer explosions (driven by hexane vapors in sewer lines), illustrate how improper chemical disposal can lead to infrastructure destruction. These past events highlight the potential for both acute and lingering impacts of hazardous material releases.

The probability of a hazardous materials (HazMat) incident in Hart County is considered moderate, driven by the county’s roadway network, industrial activity, agricultural chemical use, and proximity to regional freight routes. While Hart County does not have a large concentration of high-risk industrial facilities, it is bisected by major transportation corridors—I-65, U.S. 31W, KY 218, and KY 88—that carry regular shipments of petroleum products, fertilizers, corrosives, and other regulated materials. Transportation-related HazMat spills represent the most likely scenario, with minor incidents (fuel leaks, agricultural chemical releases, or small roadway spills) occurring periodically throughout the region.

Rail corridors near neighboring counties also increase regional exposure, as rail traffic can include hazardous commodities with potential impacts extending into Hart County depending on plume movement, weather, and response capacity. Additionally, the county’s agricultural sector routinely uses fertilizers, pesticides, and anhydrous ammonia, creating seasonal potential for localized releases due to equipment failure, storage issues, or transportation mishaps.

While large-scale industrial accidents are less probable, the presence of small manufacturing sites, utility infrastructure, fuel storage tanks, and commercial facilities contributes to a steady baseline of risk. Overall, Hart County should plan for occasional small to moderate HazMat incidents each year and maintain readiness for low-probability but high-consequence events, particularly along major transportation corridors.

Hazardous materials releases can produce widespread and cascading effects across built, natural, and social environments.

Built Environment

Hazardous materials releases can damage roadways, contaminate vehicles or structures, and require temporary closures of key transportation routes. Spills affecting culverts or drainage systems may require costly cleanup to prevent further environmental spread.

Natural Environment

The Green River and its tributaries are highly sensitive to chemical contamination. Fuel or fertilizer spills can produce fish kills, degrade water quality, and disrupt riparian ecosystems. Agricultural soil contamination may impact crop productivity and groundwater quality.

Social Environment

Hazardous materials incidents may require evacuation or shelter-in-place orders for households near spill locations. Impacts can include temporary school closures, disrupted commutes, or delayed emergency response. Vulnerable populations—including older adults, motorists, and individuals in vehicles involved in the incident—are at heightened risk.

Climate Impacts

Increasing temperatures and more volatile weather may heighten the risk of chemical volatilization, stress on agricultural chemical storage, and accident frequency during severe-weather periods.

Hart County’s vulnerability to hazardous materials incidents is moderate, shaped by its transportation corridors, agricultural activity, dispersed population, and the proximity of critical facilities to major roadways. The highest vulnerability areas are those located near I-65, U.S. 31W, KY 218, and KY 88, where a HazMat release—particularly involving fuels, corrosives, or anhydrous ammonia—could affect travelers, adjacent businesses, schools, or residential areas. Communities such as Munfordville, Bonnieville, and Horse Cave experience elevated exposure due to their location along busy routes used for freight movement.

Agricultural operations increase vulnerability through routine use and storage of pesticides, herbicides, and nitrogen-based fertilizers, including anhydrous ammonia, which can create inhalation hazards during accidental releases. Smaller bulk fuel storage tanks at farms and commercial facilities also pose spill risks that can affect soil, groundwater, and nearby property.

Hart County’s rural nature may limit the speed of response, particularly in isolated areas where emergency services face longer travel distances. Schools, long-term care facilities, and medical offices near major roadways may also be impacted if a release requires shelter-in-place or evacuation. Additionally, the county’s karst geology can allow certain hazardous substances—especially petroleum-based products—to migrate rapidly through subsurface pathways, increasing environmental vulnerability and complicating remediation.

Populations most at risk include workers involved in chemical handling, residents living near major transportation routes, individuals with respiratory conditions, and households with limited access to timely emergency notifications. Continued coordination with regional HazMat teams, improved public awareness, and reinforcement of safe agricultural handling practices can help reduce vulnerability across the county.

Hart County is moderately vulnerable due to its location along Interstate 65 and multiple state routes that support commercial freight. Hazardous cargoes moving through the county pose risks to communities such as Munfordville and Horse Cave, where rail and roadway infrastructure converge. The county’s karst landscape, tourism activity, and water-dependent industries amplify the potential consequences of chemical releases affecting air or groundwater quality.

Emerging infectious disease (EID) outbreaks can range from small, localized clusters to countywide or multi-county epidemics, depending on the pathogen’s transmissibility (e.g., R₀), incubation/asymptomatic period, mode of transmission (airborne, droplet, contact, vector, food/water), clinical severity, and availability of countermeasures (vaccines/antivirals). Severity is often expressed through combinations of attack rate, hospitalization and ICU utilization, case fatality ratio, and the duration/number of waves, which together determine stress on healthcare, schools, businesses, and critical services. FEMA’s planning policy expects plans to describe a hazard’s type, location, and extent and to include previous occurrences and the probability of future events; for EIDs, this typically means using qualitative scales (e.g., low/moderate/high) informed by public-health surveillance and scenario analysis.

Hart County’s EID context mirrors the region and state: 2009 H1N1 influenza produced widespread illness and vaccination campaigns; COVID-19 (2020–2022) caused repeated surges, remote learning periods, healthcare strain, and workforce disruptions across south-central Kentucky, with lingering recovery needs. At smaller scales, seasonal influenza, gastrointestinal outbreaks, hepatitis A, and tick-borne illnesses recur and periodically challenge local public-health capacity. For hazard-mitigation purposes, these events document that infectious hazards are recurring and can escalate quickly, even when initial clusters are small.

EIDs are non-spatial at the county scale: exposure is countywide and follows human activity patterns. Transmission risk is elevated where people congregate or where mobility is high, including schools and childcare sites, long-term care and healthcare facilities, workplaces and distribution/logistics hubs, correctional settings, places of worship, and events/venues. Vulnerability may be higher for neighborhoods with older adults, people with chronic conditions, uninsured/under-insured residents, or limited access to primary care, and for settings with shared housing or limited ventilation.

The probability of emerging infectious disease (EID) activity in Hart County is ongoing and moderate, with routine outbreaks of respiratory and gastrointestinal pathogens expected annually—particularly during school terms, peak winter illness seasons, and periods of increased regional travel. As part of a highly connected region along the I-65 corridor, Hart County experiences regular population movement through Munfordville, Horse Cave, and nearby tourism centers, increasing opportunities for disease introduction and spread.

Over a 5–10-year planning horizon, the likelihood of a significant EID event—one capable of stressing healthcare resources, disrupting school operations, or triggering countywide public-health interventions—is moderate to high, based on recent regional experience with COVID-19, influenza surges, RSV waves, and norovirus clusters. Congregate settings such as schools, long-term care facilities, correctional environments, and food-processing or manufacturing workplaces increase transmission probability for both known and novel pathogens.

Probability is further influenced by vaccination uptake, healthcare access, and timeliness of detection. Lower vaccination or booster rates, limited access to primary care, and delays in testing can elevate the likelihood of sustained transmission. Conversely, strong public-health communication, rapid testing availability, and coordinated outbreak response lower overall risk. Climate-related stressors—including hotter summers, reduced air quality, and shifting vector ecology—may indirectly increase disease transmission by contributing to indoor crowding or extending seasonal activity for certain pathogens.

For planning purposes, Hart County should expect consistent annual EID activity, with the potential for periodic high-impact outbreaks that require coordinated public-health and emergency-management action.

Impact

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) can trigger cascading consequences across systems even when case counts are moderate, because illness, isolation, and precautionary measures disrupt people, places, and services simultaneously. Direct health impacts (morbidity, mortality) are compounded by workforce absenteeism, supply-chain delays, and surges on healthcare and public health operations. The breadth of consequences depends on the pathogen’s transmissibility and severity, the speed of detection, and the availability of countermeasures (testing, treatment, vaccination) and risk communication.

Built Environment

EIDs strain the built environment indirectly by stressing the facilities and systems people operate. Hospitals, clinics, EMS stations, and pharmacies can exceed functional capacity, requiring surge spaces and changes to ventilation and patient flow. Public buildings, schools, and workplaces may need operational adjustments (enhanced cleaning, spacing, HVAC improvements), and staffing gaps can delay maintenance for roads, utilities, and public facilities. Supply-chain disruptions can slow construction projects and limit availability of critical parts for water/wastewater, transportation, and communications systems.

Natural Environment

While EIDs primarily affect human systems, response activities can influence the environment. Increased use of medical disposables and disinfectants elevates medical and solid-waste volumes, requiring proper handling to avoid secondary environmental impacts. Wastewater surveillance—often deployed for EIDs—integrates environmental sampling into public health practice and necessitates careful lab and sampling protocols. Changes in human activity (e.g., reduced travel) may temporarily alter local air quality and traffic-related emissions.

Social Environment

EIDs most strongly affect the social environment. Illness, isolation, and caregiving responsibilities reduce workforce availability, interrupt schooling and childcare, and strain household finances—especially for hourly and small-business workers. Behavioral-health needs rise due to stress, grief, and prolonged uncertainty, while misinformation can erode trust and complicate protective actions. Impacts are disproportionate for older adults, people with chronic conditions, low-income and uninsured residents, and those in congregate or high-exposure settings (schools, long-term care, logistics and retail).

Climate Impacts on EID

Climate does not directly “cause” EIDs, but it can shape risk conditions. Hotter summers and poor air-quality days can drive indoor crowding, increasing transmission opportunities for respiratory pathogens. Shifts in precipitation and temperature can extend vector seasons (ticks, mosquitoes) and alter wildlife–human interfaces that enable zoonotic spillover. Climate stress on infrastructure and households (e.g., heat waves, severe storms) can also complicate access to care and continuity of operations, amplifying the consequences of an outbreak when it coincides with other hazards.

Hart County’s vulnerability to emerging infectious diseases is moderate to high, shaped by its population distribution, workforce characteristics, healthcare access, and concentration of congregate settings. Schools, long-term care facilities, correctional environments, industrial and food-processing worksites, and tourism-driven service workplaces create conditions for rapid transmission when novel or seasonal pathogens emerge. Many residents commute along the I-65 corridor or work in settings with high interpersonal contact, increasing exposure and the potential for widespread community spread.

Healthcare access gaps—including limited local specialty care, reliance on regional hospitals outside the county, and transportation barriers for rural households—can delay diagnosis and treatment, increasing overall vulnerability. Older adults, individuals with chronic health conditions, low-income households, and residents without consistent primary care are disproportionately affected during outbreaks. Hart County also has segments of the population with limited broadband access, making telehealth or remote learning difficult during high-impact EID events.

Small businesses, schools, and essential services face operational challenges during workforce shortages or quarantine periods, and households with limited paid leave or limited childcare options experience added strain. Additionally, the county’s tourism economy—particularly in areas around Horse Cave and Mammoth Cave attractions—periodically increases population mixing, raising vulnerability to disease introduction during peak travel seasons.

Hart County’s vulnerability is moderated by mixed rural/transportation attributes. The county’s highways, visitor traffic, and local attractions may contribute to pathogen importation risk. However, the dispersed population and fewer congregate facilities limit explosive person-to-person spread in the early phase. Nonetheless, once introduced, resource constraints may hamper containment and treatment efforts.

The Kentucky Geological Survey (KGS) identifies two ways in which sinkholes collapse:

1. The roof of a cave becomes too thin to support the weight of the material above it and collapses.
2. Limestone bedrock develops a fracture that is enlarged by water dissolving the limestone. As the limestone erodes, the soil above it slowly falls into the developing sinkhole. This type of cover-collapse is typically very slow and occurs over a long period of time. Only in rare instances will limestone bedrock dissolution cause a rapid collapse.

Karst-related hazards happen quickly and without warning. However, scientists have mapped a large portion of the BRADD region to determine where these hazards are most likely to occur. A snapshot of this mapping is located above. to view a fully interactive map and explore sinkholes by jurisdiction, click on the link below.

The likelihood of new sinkhole formation or reactivation of existing depressions is moderate under current conditions and increasing with expanding development, aging stormwater systems, and heavier rainfall patterns. While most collapses are small and isolated, their unpredictability and potential to undermine roads or utilities justify continued monitoring and maintenance of known karst features.

Damages to human-made structures caused by sinkholes can range from minor to severe. Office buildings, homes, roads, utility lines, and other critical facility or structure located above a sinkhole could be affected. If the sinkhole is large enough, it can affect an entire building or home when it collapses. Minor sinkholes will cause brief damage and are usually fixed with simple excavation techniques.

Drainage water runs into sinkholes during heavy rains and will affect any structures built within the flood plain of a given sinkhole. Present sinkhole vulnerability to flooding can alter the urbanization plans and other forms of expansion and commercialization.

Transportation systems are greatly affected by sinkholes since much of the BRADD’s roadways and highways are constructed over sinkholes. When these sinkholes collapse they not only destroy the road itself but the ground beneath it. Intricate and expensive excavating techniques must be utilized to repair a roadway and its ground foundation affected by a sinkhole.

Because of the vast amount of sinkholes in the BRADD region, there is an extensive groundwater network that supplies public water systems serving many residents. Groundwater essentially originates from rain or other forms of precipitation that soak into the ground and move forward to fill cracks and other openings in soils and rocks. This permeable layer is known as an aquifer. Groundwater is also an abundance natural resource making up 9% of all the freshwater in the world. This water is a direct main source for usable, fresh water for over a million residents in Kentucky, including the Barren River region. For surface streams, groundwater provides as a base flow when it is not raining. Groundwater, especially in a karst environment, is highly susceptible to contamination. Impure rain water, septic tank effluent, agricultural pesticides, and animal waste all contribute to the contamination of groundwater through seepage and runoff. However, contamination problems are aggravated in karst areas by the practice of the disposal of solid and liquid wastes into sinkholes where they may be washed directly into the aquifer.

The natural environment is very vulnerable to the effects of sinkholes. Carbonic rock such as limestone is eroded away by acidic rain and water runoff. This carves out subterranean passages throughout the underside of the landscape. When the ground level clay or cohesive rock materials cannot support the weight, they cave in and fall into these passages. The result is a karst landscape. Sinkhole collapse greatly damages and alters the natural environment. Groundwater contamination can kill cave aquatic life.

People – Anyone living or working near sinkholes or within the drainage basin of a sinkhole is vulnerable. Karst can lead to radon-related health concerns, sinkhole collapse can lead to loss of life and property, groundwater contamination may lead to build-up of dangerous gases in homes and businesses, and flooding may cause drowning.

Economy – Cost of making repairs to property, repairing roads, preparing special foundations for large buildings, an extending public water lines to replace polluted groundwater.

There is an expected impact on sinkholes due to climate change. Increasing temperatures will likely affect hydrologic processes, enhance dissolution of limestone, and promote soil failure. It was found in one study that with every increase of 0.2ºF in global temperature, there is a 1-3% increase in the number of sinkholes, thus, there is a high possibility that an increase in sinkholes is due to climate change. With an increase in intense rain events, there could also be an increase in sinkholes opening due to runoff and undermining of soil.

Potential impacts include:

• Damage to roads and property
• Displacement of residents
• Transportation issues (traffic, blocked routes)
• Economic loss due to changes in development patterns or sinkholes/flooding

Working with AT&T’s Climate Resilient Communities Program and the Climate Risk and Resilience (ClimRR) Portal, BRADD identified additional opportunities for hazard mitigation action items associated with climate impacts for Karst Landscapes in the Barren River Region. To view an interactive report of these findings, click here.

Hart County’s vulnerability to karst and sinkhole hazards is high, reflecting the county’s extensive karst terrain, widespread sinkhole plains, and the presence of major cave systems—most notably in and around Horse Cave, Cave City, Munfordville, and the Mammoth Cave region. Residential neighborhoods, farms, roadways, and commercial areas located on soluble limestone formations are susceptible to subsidence, sinkhole collapse, and drainage disruption, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall or rapid soil saturation. Development pressures along I-65, U.S. 31W, and growth near tourist destinations have increased the number of structures and roadways placed in areas with underlying karst features, elevating overall exposure.

Vulnerability is especially high where stormwater systems, fill material, or grading activities unintentionally direct runoff toward sinkholes or concealed conduits, increasing the likelihood of sudden collapse or flooding. Homes and businesses with foundations over shallow bedrock or undocumented subsurface voids face elevated structural risk. Rural areas dependent on private wells may also experience water-quality impacts when contaminants enter karst conduits that rapidly transmit pollutants through the groundwater system.

Critical infrastructure—including roads, culverts, utilities, and wastewater systems—faces additional vulnerability, as voids or collapses can undermine pavements, damage water/sewer lines, and disrupt essential services. Emergency response can be complicated by road closures, unpredictable ground failure, or loss of access in rural areas. Populations most at risk include residents living in older homes with unknown foundation conditions, those lacking financial resources for mitigation or repairs, and households in low-lying karst depressions prone to flooding when sinkhole inlets clog.

Mitigating these vulnerabilities requires continued coordination with the Kentucky Geological Survey (KGS), improved stormwater design standards, regular inspection of known sinkhole areas, and strong public education on recognizing and reporting signs of subsidence or drainage failure across the county.

Based on KGS’s data there are 10,224 Topo and LiDAR-identified sinkholes within Hart County. In the unincorporated areas of the county (only county land), there are 9,958 topo and LiDAR-identified sinkholes.

The majority of Hart County has very high karst/sinkhole potential.Due to these factors, Hart County experiences very high vulnerability to sinkholes. The risk for Hart County’s cities is analyzed below.

Bonnieville has 11 identified sinkholes. Its vulnerability is low.

Horse Cave has 204 identified sinkholes. Its vulnerability is high.

Munfordville has 85 identified sinkholes. Its vulnerability is high.

Landslide Susceptibility

During Kentucky’s 2018 Hazard Mitigation Plan update, Kentucky Geological Survey (KGS) developed a landslide susceptibility map for the state in order to show which areas have greater landslide risk due to slope and geology. Using the KGS data, BRADD staff created a landslide susceptibility dashboard for our 10-counties. Click on the button below to access the BRADD Landslide Dashboard.

The probability of landslides in Hart County is low to moderate, with occurrences generally limited to steep slopes, streambanks, road cuts, and areas where drainage patterns have been altered. Based on regional records and BRADD’s landslide inventory, Hart County has experienced 6 documented landslide events over the past 30 years, indicating an annualized occurrence rate of approximately 0.2 events per year, or a 20% chance of at least one landslide event in any given year. This rate reflects the county’s rolling topography, which is less prone to major slope failures compared to counties with more rugged terrain, but still capable of producing localized slides and embankment failures.

Landslide probability increases during periods of prolonged or intense rainfall, especially in areas with clay-rich soils, steep stream valleys, and roadway embankments that become saturated or undercut. Freeze–thaw cycles, common in winter months, can further weaken slopes and contribute to small-scale failures. Construction activities, changes in land use, and modifications to natural drainage can also trigger localized instability, particularly where culverts or ditches concentrate runoff.

Although large, damaging landslides are uncommon in Hart County, the combination of sporadic but recurring rainfall-driven events and the region’s susceptibility to smaller slides means that landslide hazards remain a persistent, though relatively low-frequency, concern for emergency managers and transportation officials.

Human-made structures are directly affected by landslides. Any structures such as buildings, roads, bridges, street lighting, and power lines can be completely destroyed if in the direct life of the landslide.

Any roads or other transportation systems that are in the path of a landslide will be directly affected. Roads can either be covered by the debris or wiped completely away. Power lines and telecommunication networks would also be directly affected. Along with roads, telephone poles and towers can be damaged and ruined during the event of a landslide.

A landslide, itself, involves natural materials. The drastic displacement of earth, trees, and debris can cause persistent problems such as continued erosion. Landslides can carry contaminated materials into streams and other water bodies, directly affect wildlife by destroying wildlife habitats such as wooded areas, streams, and ponds. This can affect the ecosystem and all living things within it.

People

The vulnerability of a landslide do not affect one section of the population more than another. Anyone living in an area at high risk of a landslide will be affected. Landslides can occur spontaneously and randomly.

Economy

Economic costs associated with landslides are due to replacement costs for any property damaged. If transportation and telecommunication networks are damaged or destroyed, it may lead to business closures for a brief time.

There is limited evidence connecting climate change to an increase in landslides; however, it is theorized that more intense rainfall, rain-on-snow events, mean warming, permafrost thaw, glacier retreat, and coastal erosion can lead to rockface instability and decreased slope (IPCC 2022). There has been an increase in landslides in certain areas of the world and it is expected that there will be an increase in frequency in northwestern North America. Studies make these projections based on increasing rainfall intensity and frequency, so it is possible that the BRADD region may see minor impacts from these in the form of slumps and low-grade slope failure. Kentucky’s landslides mostly occur in Eastern Kentucky, so the BRADD region should not be significantly impacted.

• Potential impacts include:
• Infrastructure damage
• Ecosystem damage
• Loss of life
• Economic loss

Hart County’s vulnerability to landslides is moderate, concentrated in areas with steeper terrain, clay-rich soils, and roadway or streambank embankments that can become unstable during periods of heavy or prolonged rainfall. While much of the county consists of gently rolling topography, localized areas—particularly along the Green River and Nolin River valleys, the Bacon Creek corridor, and sections of KY 88, KY 357, KY 218, and rural secondary roads—are susceptible to small-scale slope failures, shoulder collapses, and embankment erosion.

Roadway infrastructure is among the most vulnerable elements, as even minor landslides can block lanes, damage pavements, or undermine culverts and ditches. Rural routes with limited alternate access increase risk for isolated communities when slopes fail or debris covers the roadway. Homes built near steep creek banks, on cut-and-fill slopes, or in areas where grading has altered natural drainage patterns are also at elevated risk. Manufactured homes and older structures with shallow foundations may experience greater sensitivity to soil movement.

Hart County’s karst terrain adds an additional dimension of vulnerability, as subsurface voids and unpredictable drainage patterns can weaken slopes or contribute to ground instability following intense rainfall. Agricultural lands located along steep streambanks may also experience erosion or bank sloughing during high-water events.

Populations most vulnerable include residents living along narrow valleys or steep road corridors, households with limited ability to finance repairs, and those who rely on single-access roads that could be temporarily blocked by debris. Emergency response and school transportation may be disrupted when slides occur near bus routes or key connector roads.

Overall, while large landslides are uncommon, recurrent small-scale failures and the potential for transportation disruptions contribute to a meaningful but localized vulnerability profile for Hart County.

Since 1991, KGS has recorded 6 landslides in Hart County.

Because of these factors, Hart County experiences low vulnerability to landslide events. Because Munfordville reflects Hart County’s history of landslides, it also experiences a low vulnerability.

In addition to the current COVID-19 Pandemic, the Kentucky Cabinet for Health and Family Service explains that there have been four other pandemics in United States in the last 100 years: the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu, the 1956-1958 Asian Flu, the 1968-1969 Hong Kong Flu, and the 2009 Novel H1N1. Combined, these four pandemics have claimed thousands of lives in the Commonwealth, hundreds of thousands in the United States, and millions worldwide.

Spanish Influenza 1918-1919: Historical examples of pandemic demonstrate that while a pandemic may be devastating to a community from a life safety and economic standpoint, the threat was often downplayed and ignored. The 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic was initially disregarded as having a significant impact because influenza was thought of as a minor illness that incapacitated the sick for a relatively short period of time before they eventually recovered. However, as the Spanish Influenza rose to pandemic level, it redefined the public’s perception of the virus. A historian at the time noted that at a military encampment in southern Ohio, soldiers would arrive healthy and within twenty-four hours would be dead from the flu. The virus spread globally along trade routes and shipping lines. Residents of North American, Europe, Africa, Asia, Brazil, and the South Pacific were particularly affected by the illness, which in-total infected 1/5 of the global population. In contrast to the majority of flu strains, the Spanish Influenza primarily affected young, healthy adults between the ages of 20 and 40. The mortality rate was 2.5%, an astounding figure given that flu outbreaks typically have a rate of 0.1%. By the end of the pandemic, the virus had claimed 20 million lives worldwide and 675,000 in the United States.

Asian Flu 1956-1958: The New York Times first broke the news of the Asian Flu in 1957 when they published a story of a flu virus that had infected 250,000 in Hong Kong. Months after this story was published, the disease had spread to the United States. Unlike Spanish Influenza, the Asian Flu was most commonly reported in the vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and individuals with heart and lung conditions. People with rheumatic heart disease and women in their third trimester of pregnancy were uniquely impacted. Infection for this pandemic came in two parts—the first in the late summer of 1957 and the second in the winter of 1958. The death toll for the Asian Flu widely varies, with sources reporting between 1 and 4 million deaths worldwide and approximately 69,800 in the United States.

Hong Kong Flu 1968-1969: The Hong Kong Flu is the mildest of all pandemics of the 20th century, a fact that is often explained by its similarity to the Asian Flu which increased immunity to the 1968 strain and the fact that it hit the United States in late December when most students were on break, reducing opportunities for spread. As with the Asian Flu, the vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly, were most at risk. By the end of the pandemic in 1969, it had claimed 33,800 lives in the US.

H1N1 2009-2010: This pandemic first appeared in the United States in the spring of 2009. By June, H1N1 had infected 18,000 people in the US. The virus primarily affected the populations most typically affected by the flu: children and infants, pregnant women, the elderly, and individuals with prior-existing health conditions. Due to advancements in medical research and technology, the overall impact of the pandemic was curbed. A vaccine was introduced in the fall of 2009. Approximately 80 million people were vaccinated worldwide. By the time the pandemic was declared over in the spring of 2010, between 43-89 million people had been infected and between 8,870 and 18,300 people had died.

COVID-19 2020-2023: The most recent pandemic first appeared in the United States in the spring of 2020. By July 2020, COVID-19 had infected over 200,000 people worldwide. The virus initially primarily affected the elderly, and individuals with prior-existing health conditions, however as spread increased so did the populations at-risk. A vaccine was approved for use against the virus in December of 2020, and in May of 2023 the World Health Organization declared an end to the public health emergency of international concern.

Pandemics have a low-probability but high-consequence profile. Globally, pandemic-level events occur several times per century, though moderate-scale regional epidemics—such as severe influenza seasons—are more frequent. For Edmonson County, the likelihood of a pandemic impacting the community over a 10-year planning horizon is classified as moderate, driven by:

• High levels of regional and interstate travel
• Workforce movement into and out of Hart County’s commercial centers
• Increasing global connectivity
• Seasonal respiratory disease patterns
• Periodic emergence of novel viral strains

Although pandemics remain rare compared to other hazards, their prolonged and system-wide impacts justify sustained planning and mitigation.

Infrastructure could be impacted due to lack of repair and upkeep if pandemic is extensive and lengthy; Utility lines and repairs would take longer to repair due to manpower lost.

Potential increased loss of agricultural assets (crop & livestock) due to loss of manpower to harvest crop; fewer livestock and crop markets due to restriction of crowds which prevent spread of pandemic disease;

People

Farmers-pandemic could affect crop production & yield since they could not seed or harvest; General populace -would be impacted due to both physical and psychological impacts of disease; Possible school closures would aid in disrupting spread of disease; Vulnerable populations may experience more impacts due to synergistic effects of pandemic symptomology. Additionally, the county could expirence increased emergency clinical care visits, more hospitalization (upwards 1-4% symptomatic patients will require hospitalization) leading to severe and overwhelming impacts on healthcare and public health system; workforce absences leading to minimal patient care

Economy

Pandemic can cause business slowdown or even recession; decreased food and merchandise shipped throughout area would increase cost; loss of buyers and sellers due to potential risk of contagion. Increased staff absences (upwards 50% workforce may require time off over entire period of pandemic).

The 2016 Global Risk Report published by the World Economic Forum has proposed that climate change could be a causal factor in future pandemics. This finding is further explored in a 2016 report produced by Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, Pandemics in a Changing Climate – Evolving Risk & Global Response. The report explains that vector ecology indicates the potential for climate change to create the conditions for future pandemics. Changes in temperature, precipitation, and pH levels due to climate change will impact the quantity and quality of ecological services, such as food, water, and soil. Ecosystem shifts can impact the migratory patterns, habitats, population, and survivability of certain animal and insect populations. Such changes may increase human-animal or human-insect contact, increasing the likelihood of transmission. For example, as hot summer months extend tick and mosquito populations, both culprits in transmission of epidemic-causing viruses, can survive longer and have more opportunities to infect humans. Climate change may have more direct impacts on humans by making certain populations, particularly in developing countries, more susceptible to illness by creating food and water security crises.

Hart County’s vulnerability to pandemic events is moderate to high, shaped by its population distribution, workforce patterns, healthcare access limitations, and concentration of congregate settings. As demonstrated during the COVID-19 pandemic, the county relies heavily on regional healthcare facilities located outside its borders—primarily in Bowling Green, Elizabethtown, and Glasgow—which can become quickly overwhelmed during large-scale outbreaks. Limited local specialty care, transportation barriers for rural households, and uneven access to primary-care providers increase the likelihood of delayed diagnosis, untreated illness, and higher disease severity.

Congregate settings—including schools, long-term care facilities, childcare centers, correctional environments, and manufacturing and food-processing worksites—are particularly vulnerable to rapid transmission of respiratory pathogens. Many residents commute along or work near the I-65 corridor, an active regional travel route that facilitates disease introduction and spread. Tourism activity in areas around Horse Cave, Mammoth Cave attractions, and commercial centers along U.S. 31W also increases seasonal exposure by bringing transient populations into close contact with local workers.

Social vulnerability further contributes to risk. Older adults, individuals with chronic illnesses, low-income households, and residents without reliable internet access face greater challenges accessing telehealth, remote schooling, or public-health information during pandemics. Schools and small businesses may experience significant operational strain due to workforce shortages, high absenteeism, or childcare disruptions. Essential services—including EMS, utilities, and public safety agencies—may also face staffing challenges during widespread illness.

Overall, Hart County’s combination of regional mobility, reliance on external healthcare systems, and presence of multiple high-contact environments results in a vulnerability profile that requires strong coordination across public health, emergency management, schools, and regional partners during future pandemic events.

Hart County’s vulnerability is intermediate. Tourist sites, highway access, and visitor traffic may introduce pathogen transmission. The dispersed rural layout may slow spread initially but also delay detection and response. The county’s medical and public health capacity could face stress in sustained pandemic conditions.

Location: Severe storms are treated as a region-wide, non-spatial hazard; no jurisdiction is inherently more likely to be struck, though more built-up places see greater damages. For Hart, that means exposure countywide, with higher potential property impacts in and around Bonnieville, Horse Cave, and Munfordville.

Extent: The profile evaluates hail, wind, and lightning (tornadoes are handled separately). Severe thunderstorms are defined by hail ≥ ¾”, wind gusts ≥ 50 knots (57.5 mph), or a tornado. Straight-line winds in extreme cases can exceed 100 mph.

Past events / occurrence: Hart County has recorded 97 severe storm events over 21 years (≈ 4.6 events annually).

The BRADD region’s probability of severe storms is rated High  based on annual frequency; this regional rating applies to Hart County as well.

• Hart County: 97 severe storm events/21 years = 4.61 wind events annually

Vehicles, roofs, windows, utilities, roads, and culverts are vulnerable; straight-line winds  can down trees/power lines, causing outages from hours to weeks.

Increased stormwater runoff, localized flooding, tree loss, and impacts to fish/wildlife;  crop and livestock damage are common consequences.

Outdoor workers and people without timely warnings (boaters, campers, farmers, construction crews) are especially susceptible; damages can trigger brief  business closures where transport/telecom are affected.

Research indicates climate change is increasing the number of days with sufficient CAPE and vertical wind shear to produce severe storms (hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes), implying more frequent environments favorable to severe weather in the region.

Hart County’s vulnerability to severe storms is high, reflecting the county’s rural housing stock, prevalence of manufactured homes, extensive overhead utility infrastructure, and exposure along major transportation corridors. Severe storms—bringing damaging winds, large hail, lightning, and intense rainfall—pose risks to residences, critical facilities, farms, and transportation networks across the entire county. Manufactured homes and older site-built structures with limited wind resistance are particularly susceptible to roof damage, siding loss, and structural compromise from high winds or falling trees.

Public facilities, schools, and community buildings without hardened safe rooms or wind-resistant design features face elevated risk during wind-driven events. Rural areas with long, tree-lined roadways are vulnerable to extended power outages when trees fall on power lines; this is compounded by limited redundancy in some utility corridors and long repair times in sparsely populated areas. Agricultural operations—including barns, poultry houses, equipment sheds, and fencing—are especially vulnerable to straight-line winds and hail, which can damage structures, livestock operations, and seasonal crops.

Populations most affected include residents living in manufactured homes, older adults, households with limited financial capacity for repairs, and those relying on electricity-dependent medical devices. Localized flooding resulting from severe storms can further isolate rural homes, disrupt school transportation, and hinder emergency response. Lightning strikes also pose risks to communications infrastructure, churches, barns, and unprotected homes.

Overall, the combination of aging infrastructure, dispersed population, wind-sensitive structures, and reliance on overhead utilities makes severe storms a high-consequence hazard for Hart County, requiring continued investment in preparedness, mitigation, and public education.

Hart County has experienced 97 severe storm events/21 years = 4.61 wind events annually.

Because of these factors, Hart County experiences high vulnerability to severe storms. Bonnieville, Horse Cave, and Munfordville reflect Hart County’s overall history of severe storms, and therefore experience high vulnerability as well.

Because terrorism is intentional and adversarial, traditional frequency-based risk assessments are not sufficient for evaluating potential impacts. Unlike natural hazards, terrorism cannot be forecasted or modeled using historical trends alone. Effective assessment must incorporate intelligence inputs, threat actor capabilities, and scenario planning to understand possible modes of attack and associated vulnerabilities.

At present, there is limited differentiation between types of terrorism that may affect the region. Distinguishing between domestic and international threats, as well as between physical, cyber, or hybrid forms of terrorism, can help clarify risk pathways and improve mitigation strategies. The region’s profile would also benefit from identifying and assessing critical infrastructure and “soft targets” that may be more susceptible to intentional acts, such as public gathering venues, utilities, schools, and government facilities.

Because terrorism is intentional and adversarial, you cannot rely solely on historical frequency to derive probability. Many risk models for terrorism must incorporate intelligence assessments, threat actor capabilities, and scenario planning.

While the page references terrorism conceptually, it does not currently include coordination protocols with law enforcement, fusion centers, or homeland security partners that monitor and share threat intelligence. Strengthening interagency coordination—particularly with local emergency management, police, and state agencies—would provide a more credible understanding of regional exposure and response capability.

Cascading and secondary effects of terrorism events, such as public panic, misinformation, economic disruption, and strain on emergency and health systems, are also important considerations. The social and psychological impacts of terrorism can be significant even when physical damage is limited, underscoring the need to plan for behavioral health support and long-term community recovery.

Additionally, the region’s profile does not currently evaluate local preparedness measures such as continuity of operations plans (COOP), security assessments, or mass-casualty response capacity, which are key indicators of resilience. Future updates should also consider emerging risks, such as cyber-physical attacks on utilities and critical networks, and how these may intersect with traditional forms of terrorism.

Finally, it is important to acknowledge both the limitations and sensitivities of terrorism-related data. Some information—such as specific target locations or threat intelligence—cannot be publicly shared due to security concerns. Nonetheless, transparency in describing the general methods, assumptions, and partnerships used to assess terrorism risk would enhance credibility while maintaining confidentiality.

Terrorism can destroy or damage buildings and critical lifelines (power, water/wastewater, transportation, and communications), with impacts dictated by the attack method and proximity to critical nodes.

Acts such as agro-terrorism or hazardous-materials release can contaminate soil, water, or wildlife habitat, and BRADD explicitly notes potential destruction of natural resources under certain attack types.

Intentional acts are designed to cause casualties, widespread fear, and economic disruption; BRADD highlights life-safety risks, psychological effects, and local economic shocks due to reduced participation and interrupted operations.

Climate stressors (e.g., pressures on marginalized populations, aging infrastructure, and periods of civil unrest) may elevate susceptibility to terrorism-related activities, including threats to infrastructure, property, and cyber/economic systems, even though overall climate-driven terrorism risk for the region remains low. 

Hart County’s vulnerability to terrorism is low to moderate, shaped largely by its rural character but influenced by several factors that elevate consequence potential for certain facility types and community functions. While the county does not contain major high-profile targets typically associated with large-scale terrorism, it does host critical infrastructure, transportation corridors, tourism destinations, and public gathering spaces that could be affected by targeted or opportunistic acts of violence or disruption.

Key vulnerabilities include facilities along the I-65 corridor, which carries high volumes of interstate traffic and freight movement and provides broad access to communities such as Munfordville, Horse Cave, and Bonnieville. Tourism-related sites—including attractions near Mammoth Cave, commercial nodes along U.S. 31W, and hospitality venues—periodically draw large numbers of visitors, increasing exposure to crowd-related threats. Local government buildings, schools, courthouses, utilities, and public-safety facilities are additional potential targets due to their operational importance.

Cyber vulnerabilities are significant as well. Small public agencies, schools, health facilities, and local businesses often operate with limited cybersecurity resources, increasing susceptibility to ransomware, data breaches, and service disruptions. Critical systems such as 911 communications, financial services, water/wastewater utilities, and hospital networks in nearby regions could also experience cascading impacts from a cyberattack.

Populations most affected by a terrorism incident—whether physical or cyber—include employees and visitors at high-occupancy facilities, residents dependent on critical services, and vulnerable populations unable to rapidly evacuate or relocate. Emergency response may be challenged by rural road networks, limited specialized tactical resources, and the need for regional coordination.

Although the overall probability of a major terrorism event in Hart County remains low, the presence of essential services, transportation corridors, tourism sites, and cyber-dependent operations results in a vulnerability profile that requires continued planning, training, and information sharing among local, regional, and state partners.

Hart County’s vulnerability stems from its transportation assets and tourism economy. With Interstate 65, multiple state highways, and attractions such as Hidden River Cave, the county experiences substantial visitor traffic and transient population movement. While there are no identified high-profile targets, the combination of interstate access and visitor activity increases the need for strong coordination between local law enforcement, tourism agencies, and emergency management to ensure threat detection and response capability.

Tornado intensity in Edmonson County typically ranges from EF0 to EF2, though stronger events remain possible. Straight-line winds and severe storms accompanying tornadic systems can produce impacts similar to lower-end tornadoes. Tornadoes can damage homes, manufactured housing, barns, large-span structures, utilities, trees, and vehicles.

From 2000–2025, Hart County experienced 9 tornadoes (≈ 36% chance of at least one tornado in a given year). Since 1950, tornadoes that touched down in the county have caused 22 injuries and 1 deaths. Regional context includes the December 10–11, 2021 outbreak, with multiple long-track and high-end events affecting neighboring counties.
Tornado exposure is countywide and non-spatial at planning scale; consequences concentrate where people and assets are located (e.g., Brownsville, major corridors, and higher-occupancy or vulnerable housing areas such as mobile homes).

The same supercell which came from Bowling Green extended another tornado to the ground on the down-sloping side of Fisher Ridge, just east of I-65 on Highway 335. Here, many barns collapsed on tobacco farms and hardwood trees were snapped. The tornado then continued through Rowletts where snapped/uprooted large trees and roof damage was found at the Caveland Country Club. The tornado then encountered terrain on Dawson Knob where little damage was found, however the tornado quickly intensified on the down-sloping side. The tornado continued down Shady Lane Church Rd. where it destroyed many homes, took roofs off structures and homes, collapsed well-built barns, destroyed an Amish schoolhouse, snapped/uprooted many trees, downed many powerlines, and took the lives of many farm animals. The tornado weakened to the northeast of Hardyville where damage was determined to be EF1 and EF0 through Summersville. The tornado lifted northeast of Summersville.

NWS Storm Survey Teams found EF-0 tornado damage across northern Hart County. A barn along E Sullivan Rd was damaged where some of the roofing was found 400 yards away. The weak tornado was very elevated and next hit power lines on the east side of the road. The most significant damage was to a 100 x 50ft barn with damage thrown 200-250 yards back to the southwest. The barn foundation moved 18 inches to the east. A 2 x 4ft from the barn was thrown 60 yards to the north- northwest and was impaled into the 2nd story of an adjacent house. There was very minor tree damage as much of the tornado was highly elevated. The tornado lifted in a field just northeast of this residence.

BRADD rates overall regional probability for tornadoes as high, based on historical frequency, wind-zone classification, and FEMA definitions. Hart County’s recent history (9 events/25 years) supports an ongoing, recurring likelihood at the county scale.

Tornadoes can damage or destroy homes and businesses, topple transmission and distribution lines, block roads and bridges with debris, and interrupt power, communications, and water/wastewater services.

Tornadoes can fell trees, damage crops and farm structures, degrade habitats, and increase fire risk where dead or downed timber is not removed.

Tornadoes can cause deaths and injuries, trigger temporary but significant economic disruption, and reduce local revenue and productivity during recovery.

While attribution is complex at tornado scale, research indicates fewer “one-tornado” days and more multi-tornado cluster days, linked to increases in days with high CAPE and sufficient vertical wind shear; this implies more days conducive to severe storms—a planning consideration for warning, sheltering, and surge response.

Hart County’s tornado vulnerability is assessed as moderate. Contributing factors include the historical event rate, documented casualties since 1950, and two census tracts where ≥25% of housing units are mobile homes, which are more susceptible to wind damage and offer limited sheltering. Bonnieville, Horse Cave, and Munfordville reflect Hart County’s overall history of tornado events, and therefore experience moderate vulnerability as well.

Between 2000 and 2021, Hart County has experienced 7 tornadoes/21years =33% chance of a tornado happening in a given year.

Since 1950, tornadoes that touched down in Hart County have caused 22 injuries and 1 death.

Hart County contains two census tracts wherein at least 25% of all housing units are mobile homes.

Because of these factors, Hart County experiences moderate vulnerability to tornadoes. Bonnieville, Horse Cave, and Munfordville reflect Hart County’s overall history of tornado events, and therefore experience moderate vulnerability as well.

Extent is characterized by the number and severity of winter storm, heavy snow, and ice storm events (including federally declared disasters). The BRADD region recorded multiple FEMA winter-storm disaster declarations between 2000 and 2020 and 66 reportable winter storm events in that period.

From 2000–2020, Hart County experienced 8 severe winter storms.

Exposure is countywide (non-spatial at the planning scale), with impacts most evident where people, infrastructure, and travel corridors concentrate (e.g., Brownsville and major roads)

Winter storms are an annual occurrence in Hart County, with varying severity. Snow events occur several times each winter, while impactful ice storms occur every 3–7 years, on average. Cold waves with dangerous wind chills occur periodically and may last several days. Climate projections suggest that while average winter temperatures may rise, Kentucky is likely to continue experiencing occasional severe cold outbreaks and high-impact ice events due to increased weather variability. As a result, winter storms remain a high-probability hazard for planning purposes.

Winter storms can damage roofs under snow load, break limbs that fall onto buildings and vehicles, down power lines, and block roads and bridges with snow/ice and debris; even modest icing can disrupt utilities and emergency response.

Extended snow/ice cover can alter habitats and timing of species behavior; out-of-season events can injure or kill vegetation and damage crops and trees.

Hazardous travel, power outages, and isolation elevate risks for households—especially older adults or people with medical needs—while business closures and school disruptions impose community-wide costs.

Changing winter characteristics: warmer winters overall, fewer heavy snowmelt events, more precipitation falling as rain/ice in the Southeast, a lengthening freeze-free season, and related economic and infrastructure stresses—factors that may shift Allen County’s winter risk mix toward icing events and infrastructure sensitivity even as extreme cold snaps still occur.

The table below displays ice storm, winter storms, and heavy snow events that were reported to NOAA and NWS between 2000 and 2020. While not each of these events received a FEMA declaration, each showed clear characteristics of a severe winter storm.

Between 2000 and 2020, NOAA and NWS reported 23 severe winter storms in Hart County.

On average, Hart County has experienced 8 winter storm events/21 years. This equates to a 0.38% chance of a winter storm event in Hart County annually.

In 2021, winter storm conditions led to a fatal crash on Interstate 65 in Hart County.

Because of these factors, Hart County experiences moderate vulnerability to winter storm events. Bonnieville, Horse Cave, and Munfordville reflect Hart County’s overall history of winter storms, and therefore experience moderate vulnerability as well.