Hazards in Edmonson County

Quality of Dam Infrastructure

The American Society of Civil Engineers gave Kentucky a D+ on dam infrastructure, which is only slightly better than the national average. The average US dam is 60 years old, and most dams in Kentucky are over 50. As of 2019, 80 dams in the state are classified as two-fold risks, meaning that they are both high hazards and in poor or unsatisfactory condition. 47% of these 80 dams received that rating partially because they cannot hold enough rain during catastrophic storms. 89% of high hazard dams in Kentucky do not have complete emergency action plans on file with the state. 74% have simplified draft plans, but these are not widely shared and have not been adopted by local officials.

Types of Dam Failure

There are three types of Dam Failure:

1. Structural: This common cause is responsible for nearly 30% of all dam failure in the United States. Structural failure of a dam occurs when there is a rupture in the dam or its foundation.
2. Mechanical: Refers to the failure or malfunctioning of gates, conduits, or valves.
3. Hydraulic: Occurs when the uncontrolled flow of water over the top, around, and adjacent to the dam erodes its foundation. Hydraulic failure is the cause of approximately 34% of all dam failures.

The extent of a dam-failure event varies with reservoir size, dam type, breach size, and downstream topography. In Edmonson County, the most significant impacts would stem from the failure of high- or significant-hazard dams located outside the county but with hydrologic influence on the Green River, Nolin River, or low-lying tributary systems. Smaller on-farm impoundment failures generally produce localized flooding, erosion, and infrastructure damage.

History of Dam Failure

Edmonson County has no documented catastrophic dam failures, but localized impoundment breaches and overtopping events have occurred historically across BRADD’s rural counties during periods of extreme rainfall. Regionally, the 2010 flood caused emergency spillway activation at several dams and highlighted the vulnerability of small, privately owned pond dams during prolonged rainfall.

Probability

The probability of dam failure in Edmonson County is low, but non-zero, consistent with rural Kentucky counties containing many privately owned, aging farm and recreational dams. While major federal dams (e.g., Nolin River Lake Dam) are rigorously inspected and maintained, the largest share of risk stems from small, privately owned Class A or low-hazard structures, which may lack formal inspection, maintenance, or spillway capacity during extreme rainfall events. Increasing severe-rainfall frequency—particularly intense 24-hour precipitation events—marginally elevates failure probability, particularly for earthen dams with aging spillways or poor drainage. Overall, Edmonson County should expect occasional small-impoundment failures following major storm events, with very low probability of a large-scale catastrophic dam failure affecting the county.

Built Environment:

A breach can produce rapid inundation that damages or destroys buildings, blocks roads with debris, disrupts traffic and emergency services, and threatens water/wastewater systems—especially if a reservoir supplies drinking water.

Natural Environment:

Floodwaves can scour channels, mobilize debris and contaminants, and disrupt aquatic habitats and riparian systems.

Social Environment:

Fast-arriving floodwaters elevate life-safety risk, particularly for people living/working in low-lying downstream areas with limited warning or evacuation options.

Climate Impacts on Dam Failure:

Increasingly intense rainfall, longer wet periods, and more frequent extreme storm events can raise hydraulic loading on dams, heighten the risk of overtopping, accelerate erosion of embankments and spillways, and reduce warning/response time. Climate-driven shifts can also stress aging infrastructure and complicate reservoir operations (e.g., balancing flood control with drought storage), making proactive maintenance, updated hydrologic/hydraulic studies, and EAP exercises even more critical.

Vulnerability in Edmonson County is moderate, driven by its numerous small, privately owned impoundments, limited regulatory oversight of Class A/LH dams, and the presence of residents living downstream of small structures located in steep hollows or near agricultural fields. Recreational areas near the Green River and within Mammoth Cave-adjacent corridors are also vulnerable due to periodic high visitation, limited access routes, and campground proximity to waterways. Many rural households rely on roadways and low-water crossings that could be impacted by dam-related surge flows. Vulnerable populations include residents with limited transportation options, older adults in rural settings, and visitors unfamiliar with local topography.

Low-lying development and roads near streams are susceptible to fast-moving flood waves from an upstream release. Karst terrain and cave systems increase environmental stakes by facilitating rapid infiltration and ecosystem disturbance, emphasizing the need for spill/debris management planning after a breach.

Location/Extent

In Edmonson County, drought extent is typically countywide, with impacts varying by soils, crop types, and water sources. Agricultural impacts (forage stress, reduced yields) are the most common, while potable water impacts are generally less frequent but possible during prolonged deficits or high summer demand.

Sensitivity is elevated for row-crop and pasture lands, small public water systems or systems with leakage/limited storage, and surface-water/groundwater users lacking redundant sources. BRADD’s Water System Vulnerability to Drought resource further highlights system-level considerations for the region.

Past Events

Edmonson County has experienced several notable drought periods over the past two decades, with conditions reaching D2 (Severe Drought) during statewide events such as 2007–2008 and intermittent flash-drought episodes in the 2010s. Agricultural losses—including reduced hay yields, heat stress on livestock, and limited pasture availability—are among the most consistently documented impacts. While municipal systems in nearby counties often maintain adequate capacity, Edmonson’s rural water users and dispersed agricultural operations remain vulnerable to prolonged dryness.

Notable events include the 2012 drought, when much of Kentucky—including Edmonson County—reached D3 (Extreme Drought) on the U.S. Drought Monitor, with widespread agricultural losses, elevated fire risk, and water shortages.

From 2000–2020, Butler County experienced ~57 weeks of D2 (Moderate) and ~9 weeks of D3 (Severe/Extreme) drought.

Probability

Long-term monitoring indicates drought is a recurrent hazard. Edmonson County experienced 582 total weeks of drought over the last 21 years—about a 45% chance that any given week features drought conditions. Projections suggest drought likelihood may increase with climate change as rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns extend dry periods.

Built Environment:

Lower reservoir and well levels can strain municipal water systems, increase infrastructure operating costs (e.g., pumping/energy), and trigger usage restrictions for businesses and institutions; prolonged deficits can reduce fire-flow availability for rural systems.

Natural Environment:

Drought reduces streamflow and aquatic habitat quality, stresses forests and grasslands, and can degrade water quality as lower volumes concentrate pollutants.

Social Environment:

The largest local effects are economic losses in agriculture (crop failures, livestock stress, higher irrigation costs) and secondary risks such as increased wildfire potential; households and small businesses can face water shortages and higher costs.

Climate Impacts on Dam Failure:

Rising temperatures increase evapotranspiration and soil‐moisture loss, while shifting precipitation patterns can produce longer dry spells punctuated by intense storms that do little to recharge groundwater. Hotter summers elevate water demand, stress crops and livestock, worsen algal blooms and other water-quality issues in low flows, and compound risks when heat waves coincide with drought—intensifying health, agricultural, and infrastructure impacts across Edmonson County.

Drought Vulnerability in the BRADD Region

Soil Susceptibility

Soil’s susceptibility to drought varies due to a myriad of factors. The map below depicts vulnerability to drought based on soil type from a moisture retention and availability perspective. For example a shallow fragipan limits the depth of the soil making it more vulnerable to moisture loss. Grey areas indicate that no soil data was available due to lakes, heavily urbanized areas, or strip mining. Susceptibility to Drought Scores were established using the criteria of infiltration, water movement, and water supply for the soils defined in the NRCS Soil Surveys that encompass the state.

Edmonson County’s drought vulnerability is moderate, shaped by its rural character, widespread private wells, and reliance on pasture-based and small-scale agricultural operations. Older adults and medically vulnerable residents face elevated heat risk during drought periods. Agricultural producers—particularly livestock and hay operations—are highly susceptible to economic losses during extended dry spells. Rural water associations and households using private wells may face capacity limitations or costly maintenance during prolonged drought. Limited redundancy in some rural water systems and the county’s dispersed population increase response challenges during severe drought events.

Edmonson County’s public water system demonstrates low vulnerability to drought.

The soil susceptibility map indicates that large swaths of Butler County’s soil experience moderately high susceptibility to drought.

Overall, Edmonson County has a moderately high vulnerability to drought. Because drought is a non-spatial hazard, this same analysis can be applied to its respective city – Brownsville.

Location/Extent

Kentucky is affected by nearby seismic zones—New Madrid (most active east of the Rockies) and Wabash Valley (capable of M5.5–6.0 damage near population centers). Potential shaking in Butler County ranges from weak/noticeable (MMI II–IV) during distant events to light–moderate (MMI V–VI) in rarer, larger scenarios; secondary effects can include nonstructural damage, minor slope instability, and utility disruptions. The eastern U.S. crust transmits shaking efficiently, so distant earthquakes can be widely felt.

Severity is commonly expressed by earthquake magnitude and by shaking intensity (Modified Mercalli Scale). Butler County’s worst-case consequences depend on regional event size/distance and local amplification/liquefaction potential.

Past Events

BRADD records indicate few locally recorded events in the district and none historically ≥M3 in Butler County, though nearby counties have experienced small events. Regionally, occasional felt earthquakes occur in the ETSZ and WVSZ; the well-known 1811–1812 NMSZ sequence produced very strong shaking across Kentucky. Recent felt events in the central U.S. demonstrate that even moderate quakes can be widely felt due to eastern U.S. geology.

Probability

Earthquake probability in Edmonson County is considered low but persistent. While large events occur rarely, the county can expect:

• Light to weak shaking (MMI III–IV) every several years from regional seismicity,
• Moderate shaking (MMI V–VI) potentially one or more times within a 50-year planning horizon,
• A low-probability, high-consequence scenario from a major NMSZ event, which could cause widespread impact across multiple counties.

Although infrequent, earthquakes remain a relevant planning hazard due to the county’s older building stock and proximity to major regional seismic zones.

An earthquake could result in structural damage to older buildings, critical facilities, and infrastructure not designed to modern seismic codes. Bridges, utilities, and water systems could sustain significant damage, leading to service disruptions. Secondary impacts might include landslides in certain areas, hazardous material spills, and challenges in emergency response due to blocked roads and damaged communication systems. Economic losses could be substantial, particularly for uninsured property owners.

Built Environment:

Shaking can damage homes and business structures, collapse unreinforced elements, and disrupt roads/bridges, power, water/wastewater, and telecom. Post-event debris and utility outages can hinder emergency response.

Natural Environment:

Secondary effects—liquefaction, landslides, fires, and hazmat releases—can degrade soils, waterways, and habitats.

Social Environment:

Transportation disruption, hospital surge, power/water interruptions, and communications overload elevate life-safety risk and complicate reunification and care for vulnerable groups (children, older adults, LEP populations).

Climate Impacts on Earthquakes:

While climate change does not drive tectonic earthquakes, hydrologic extremes (prolonged drought, heavy precipitation, groundwater withdrawal/recharge) may alter subsurface stresses in limited contexts. The BRADD region has an overall low earthquake risk, so any climate influence on local frequency/severity is likely minor relative to tectonic controls.

Earthquake Vulnerability in Allen County

Butler County is mapped in a “high perceived shaking” zone for high-magnitude regional scenarios and contains significant local fault lines. Because earthquakes are non-spatial at the county scale, this vulnerability characterization applies countywide (including Morgantown, Rochester, and Woodbury). Key sensitivity factors remain older/unnretrofitted buildings, critical facilities, bridges, and lifelines on softer soils or in potential liquefaction areas.

Edmonson County’s vulnerability to earthquakes is low to moderate, shaped by its rural building stock, limited seismic design in older structures, and presence of unreinforced masonry buildings in Brownsville and unincorporated communities. Schools, public buildings, and emergency facilities built prior to modern codes may have nonstructural vulnerabilities that could disrupt operations during even modest shaking. Infrastructure such as bridges, culverts, and underground utilities may also be susceptible to functional damage. Populations at greatest risk include older adults, individuals in mobile or manufactured housing, and residents living in older or poorly anchored structures.

Edmonson County is within the “light” perceived shaking zone for a high magnitude earthquake and does not contain significant fault lines.

Because of these factors, Edmonson County experiences low vulnerability to earthquakes. Because earthquakes are non-spatial hazards, it can be assumed that this analysis should be applied to Edmonson County’s respective city – Brownsville.

Location/Extent

Location and Extent

Extreme temperatures can affect all areas of Edmonson County, though impacts vary by building type, age, and access to reliable heating or cooling. Heat waves produce the highest risk in homes lacking air conditioning, manufactured housing, and multi-generation households. Extreme cold threatens exposed plumbing, rural homes with limited insulation, and communities relying on electric heat.

Historical Occurrences

Cold. Within the regional record (2010–2021), Edmonson County had one wind chill watch (2014) and one wind chill warning (2015); these events were issued region-wide.

Heat. Across 2010–2021, the BRADD region recorded 18 excessive heat watches and 71 excessive heat warnings; county-level breakdowns show Edmonson County averaged ~32.4 extreme-heat days per year (2010–2016).

Probability

Expect recurrent heat seasons with periodic advisory/warning episodes and less frequent but hazardous cold outbreaks. While year-to-year frequency varies, local planning should assume annual heat advisories are likely, with occasional excessive-heat warnings, and intermittent extreme-cold events in some winters.

Extreme heat can lead to heat exhaustion and heatstroke, particularly in outdoor workers, the elderly, and low-income households without access to cooling. It also increases energy demand, raising utility costs and the likelihood of power outages. Severe cold poses risks of frostbite, hypothermia, and infrastructure damage, including frozen pipes and malfunctioning heating systems. Both extremes can disrupt agricultural yields, livestock health, and local economies.

Built Environment:

Cold can burst buried water pipes, strain metal bridge members, and affect trucking/rail operations (e.g., diesel gelling). Heat can soften asphalt, stress vehicle cooling systems and rail operations, and increase water demand, sometimes reducing fire-flow availability.

Natural Environment:

Cold snaps threaten livestock and wildlife and can freeze ponds/streams. Heat can degrade water quality, drive algal blooms, and reduce crop yields and dairy productivity.

Social Environment:

Cold elevates exposure risks for people without adequate shelter or heat and can increase CO poisoning and fire risk; both cold and heat create economic losses (e.g., utility repair, agriculture) and can trigger business/school closures. Heat is the leading U.S. weather-related killer, with illnesses from fatigue to heat stroke.

Climate Impacts on Extreme Temperatures:

Climate change models predict and increase in overall temperature globally for the coming decades, including the BRADD region. With a potential rise of several degrees Fahrenheit, multiple services, systems, and activities face disruption and impact. Temperature increases this small may not seem threatening, but the cumulative impacts will affect weather events, human health, and ecosystem functions, along with economic and social issues related to energy use and cost of living.

Working with  AT&T’s Climate Resilient Communities Program and the  Climate Risk and Resilience (ClimRR) Portal, BRADD identified additional opportunities for hazard mitigation action items associated with climate impacts for Extreme Temperatures in the Barren River Region. To view an interactive report of these findings,   click here.

Edmonson County’s vulnerability to extreme temperature hazards is moderate, shaped by its rural housing stock, high proportion of manufactured homes, and limited access to cooling or modern heating systems in some areas. Older adults, medically dependent residents, low-income households, and residents living in older structures face the greatest risks. Rural isolation and limited transit increase vulnerability during cold-weather events, while high energy burdens and limited air conditioning increase exposure during heat waves. Schools, long-term care facilities, and rural water systems may face operational challenges during prolonged extreme temperatures.

Since 2010, Edmonson County experienced one wind chill watch (2014) and one wind chill warning (2015).

Because of these factors, Edmonson County experiences moderate vulnerability to extreme cold events. Brownsville reflects Edmonson County’s overall history of extreme cold, and therefore experiences high vulnerability as well.

On average, Edmonson County experienced 32.4 extreme heat days per year between 2010 and 2016.

Because of these factors, Edmonson County experiences moderate to high vulnerability to extreme heat events. Brownsville reflects Edmonson County’s overall history of extreme heat, and therefore experiences moderate to high vulnerability as well.

Edmonson County has experienced frequent flood and flash-flood events over the past two decades, including impacts during major regional flooding years such as 2010, 2018, 2020, and 2021. Flash flooding has resulted in repeated road closures, basement flooding, culvert washouts, and agricultural impacts, particularly in steep hollows and along tributaries to the Green River. Riverine flooding episodes have periodically inundated low-lying roads, recreation areas, and river-adjacent facilities.

According to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), Edmonson County (Unincorporated) and the City of Brownsville both possess zero (0) Repetitive-Loss (RL) and zero (0) Severe Repetitive-Loss (SRL) properties. There are two (2) definitions each for “Repetitive-Loss” and “Severe Repetitive-Loss”: one set of definitions used by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and a parallel set used by FEMA’s Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) program. Although no properties currently meet RL or SRL thresholds under either program, localized flooding continues to affect structures and infrastructure throughout the county, underscoring the importance of mitigation investments and flood-risk awareness.

Edmonson County experienced 40 flood events over 20 years (~2 events/year). This places Edmonson County in the upper-range of regional flood frequency.

Exposure in Edmonson County is countywide, with riverine flooding along the Green River and its associated tributaries; flash flooding in steep headwater basins, narrow hollows, and at rural low-water crossings; and localized or poor-drainage flooding within the City of Brownsville and other small communities. Low-lying recreation areas, road networks, and river-adjacent facilities also experience periodic inundation during high-water events. While Edmonson County’s karst terrain is extensive—especially near Mammoth Cave Plateau—sinkholes, depressions, and losing streams can concentrate stormwater and create sudden, localized flooding when drainage inlets clog or soils become saturated.

Click Here to view a summary of all past Disaster Declarations in the BRADD Region.

Below you will find a listing of past NOAA Flood and Flash-Flood Events from 2000-2020 for Butler County.

Flooding in Edmonson County is a high-probability, annually recurring hazard. Flash flooding occurs multiple times each year due to steep terrain and intense rainfall. Riverine flooding is less frequent but occurs during years with heavy winter and spring precipitation. Climate projections indicate an increase in extreme rainfall events, heightened runoff, and greater stormwater exceedance potential. Within any given 1–5-year planning window, Edmonson County should expect multiple flash-flood events and periodic riverine flooding along the Green River and its tributaries.

Extreme heat can lead to heat exhaustion and heatstroke, particularly in outdoor workers, the elderly, and low-income households without access to cooling. It also increases energy demand, raising utility costs and the likelihood of power outages. Severe cold poses risks of frostbite, hypothermia, and infrastructure damage, including frozen pipes and malfunctioning heating systems. Both extremes can disrupt agricultural yields, livestock health, and local economies.

Built Environment:

Flooding can cause structural damage to both residential and commercial buildings and destroy furnishing and inventory.
Flooding will causes inconvenience or stoppage to many system. Transportation systems such as roads and railways become unpassable. Large amounts of water from a flood can affect water management systems such as the backup or hiatus of drainage, sanitary, and sewer systems. As heavy rains persist during a flood event, excess water drains into the ground water system. This causes the water table to rise and cause further ground water floods. If chemicals are mixed with flood waters, this can contaminate the ground water, a common source of fresh water for communities.

Natural Environment:

As flood waters engulf the surrounding natural environment, they are saturated with chemicals and other substances associated with the manmade environment that they have also been in contact with. As these abnormal waters settle and flows through natural ecosystems they can alter and even destroy both plant and animal life. When the flow of flood waters becomes so immense, it can physically destroy or uproot naturally growing vegetation and also drive specific species of animals out of their natural habitats for good.

Social Environment:

People
People with property located in the floodplain or within areas subject to seepage are vulnerable to flooding. Stoppage to transportation systems can make it very difficult for isolated populations to receive aid or escape breeching flood waters. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly or people who need medical attention, may be temporarily cut off from accessing life-saving resources.

Economy
Floods can affect local economies by disrupting transportation systems needed for people to get to and from work and destroying places of business and means of production. When flooding occurs in more rural areas, livestock and agricultural system will be affected. Crops can be destroyed in the growing season, or prevent from seeding in the off season. Large insurance payouts to residents or business owners who have procured flood insurance might also have an economic impact.

Climate Impacts on Flooding:

Climate change models predict and increase in overall temperature globally for the coming decades, including the BRADD region. With a potential rise of several degrees Fahrenheit, multiple services, systems, and activities face disruption and impact. Temperature increases this small may not seem threatening, but the cumulative impacts will affect weather events, human health, and ecosystem functions, along with economic and social issues related to energy use and cost of living.

Working with  AT&T’s Climate Resilient Communities Program and the  Climate Risk and Resilience (ClimRR) Portal, BRADD identified additional opportunities for hazard mitigation action items associated with climate impacts for flooding in the Barren River Region. To view an interactive report of these findings,   click here.

Edmonson County’s flood vulnerability is moderate to high, shaped by its rural road network, frequent low-water crossings, karst-influenced drainage, agricultural lands, and dispersed population. Residents living along the Green River or in narrow valleys face heightened exposure. Manufactured homes, older structures, and homes with limited elevation or foundation freeboard are more susceptible to damage. Roadway washouts and culvert failures can isolate households, delay EMS response, and complicate evacuation or recovery efforts. Visitors and campers in recreation areas may have limited familiarity with local flood risks, increasing life-safety concerns during rapid-onset events.

Between 2000 and 2020, Edmonson County has had 40 flood events.

Edmonson County has received FEMA Disaster Declarations in 2002, 2004 (2), 2009, 2010, 2011, 2015, 2016, 2019, 2020, and 2021.

Overall, Edmonson County experiences very high vulnerability to flood events. The risk for Edmonson County’s city is analyzed below.

The City of Brownsville has had eighteen historic occurrences of flood and flash-flood events since 2000. Its vulnerability is high.

The extent of a hazardous materials release is characterized by the type of substance, quantity released, state (gas, liquid, solid), dispersion behavior, and weather/terrain conditions. Releases may be constrained and local (e.g. a leaking drum or tank) or large and far-reaching (e.g. vapors spreading over multiple miles, groundwater contamination migrating). Depending on the chemical’s toxicity, volatility, and persistence, an incident could produce acute health effects, long-term environmental harm, or chronic exposure zones. In the BRADD region, credible scenarios include a small spill alongside a highway, a rail car release near populated areas, or a storage tank failure, each producing different spatial footprints and hazard zones.

The BRADD region has a record of hazardous materials incidents, particularly associated with transportation and industrial operations. Kentucky has experienced several costly hazmat transit incidents in recent years. In rail transport, derailments involving chemical cargo have spurred evacuations and environmental response. For example, in 2007, a major derailment in Kentucky released hazardous materials and required area evacuation. Nationally and regionally, chemical spills from industrial plants have caused injury, property damage, and remediation efforts. Some incidents, such as the 1981 Louisville sewer explosions (driven by hexane vapors in sewer lines), illustrate how improper chemical disposal can lead to infrastructure destruction. These past events highlight the potential for both acute and lingering impacts of hazardous material releases.

Hazardous materials incidents in Edmonson County present a moderate probability, primarily driven by transportation-related risk. Given the county’s substantial reliance on roadways for freight, fuel, and agricultural chemical movement, small spills and leaks can be expected periodically each year. While catastrophic releases are unlikely, the presence of flammable and corrosive materials in transit, combined with limited alternate routes and rural emergency-response coverage, supports a planning assumption of several minor to moderate hazardous materials incidents annually, with a low likelihood but high consequence potential for larger-scale events.

Hazardous materials releases can produce widespread and cascading effects across built, natural, and social environments.

Built Environment

Hazardous materials releases can damage roadways, contaminate vehicles or structures, and require temporary closures of key transportation routes. Spills affecting culverts or drainage systems may require costly cleanup to prevent further environmental spread.

Natural Environment

The Green River and its tributaries are highly sensitive to chemical contamination. Fuel or fertilizer spills can produce fish kills, degrade water quality, and disrupt riparian ecosystems. Agricultural soil contamination may impact crop productivity and groundwater quality.

Social Environment

Hazardous materials incidents may require evacuation or shelter-in-place orders for households near spill locations. Impacts can include temporary school closures, disrupted commutes, or delayed emergency response. Vulnerable populations—including older adults, motorists, and individuals in vehicles involved in the incident—are at heightened risk.

Climate Impacts

Increasing temperatures and more volatile weather may heighten the risk of chemical volatilization, stress on agricultural chemical storage, and accident frequency during severe-weather periods.

Edmonson County’s vulnerability to hazardous materials incidents is moderate, influenced by its rural transportation network, widespread use of agricultural chemicals, and limited redundancy in emergency-response coverage. Rural households, schools, and small businesses with close proximity to major roadways or fuel-storage sites face elevated exposure. Limited access to hazardous materials response resources—such as specialized equipment or regional hazmat teams—can prolong response times. Spills entering waterways pose significant risk to recreational users, drinking water sources downstream, and sensitive ecosystems within the Green River–Mammoth Cave region.

Edmonson County’s vulnerability stems largely from through-traffic of hazardous materials on state highways and the environmental sensitivity of Mammoth Cave National Park and surrounding karst systems. Even small spills near surface waters or sinkhole features could quickly impact groundwater quality and cave ecosystems. Limited local response capacity underscores the importance of regional coordination with neighboring counties and federal partners for rapid mitigation.

Emerging infectious disease (EID) outbreaks can range from small, localized clusters to countywide or multi-county epidemics, depending on the pathogen’s transmissibility (e.g., R₀), incubation/asymptomatic period, mode of transmission (airborne, droplet, contact, vector, food/water), clinical severity, and availability of countermeasures (vaccines/antivirals). Severity is often expressed through combinations of attack rate, hospitalization and ICU utilization, case fatality ratio, and the duration/number of waves, which together determine stress on healthcare, schools, businesses, and critical services. FEMA’s planning policy expects plans to describe a hazard’s type, location, and extent and to include previous occurrences and the probability of future events; for EIDs, this typically means using qualitative scales (e.g., low/moderate/high) informed by public-health surveillance and scenario analysis.

Edmonson County’s EID context mirrors the region and state: 2009 H1N1 influenza produced widespread illness and vaccination campaigns; COVID-19 (2020–2022) caused repeated surges, remote learning periods, healthcare strain, and workforce disruptions across south-central Kentucky, with lingering recovery needs. At smaller scales, seasonal influenza, gastrointestinal outbreaks, hepatitis A, and tick-borne illnesses recur and periodically challenge local public-health capacity. For hazard-mitigation purposes, these events document that infectious hazards are recurring and can escalate quickly, even when initial clusters are small.

EIDs are non-spatial at the county scale: exposure is countywide and follows human activity patterns. Transmission risk is elevated where people congregate or where mobility is high, including schools and childcare sites, long-term care and healthcare facilities, workplaces and distribution/logistics hubs, correctional settings, places of worship, and events/venues. Vulnerability may be higher for neighborhoods with older adults, people with chronic conditions, uninsured/under-insured residents, or limited access to primary care, and for settings with shared housing or limited ventilation.

EID activity in Edmonson County is ongoing and recurrent, with routine outbreaks likely every year and significant regional outbreaks possible within any 5–10-year planning horizon. Probability is driven by:

• Seasonal respiratory infections
• High levels of daily commuting to and from Bowling Green
• Tourism volumes associated with Mammoth Cave National Park
• School-year transmission dynamics
• Climate-related shifts that lengthen vector seasons (ticks, mosquitoes)

While catastrophic pandemics are infrequent, moderate-intensity outbreaks capable of disrupting schools, businesses, and healthcare facilities are expected periodically, giving EIDs a moderate probability classification.

Impact

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) can trigger cascading consequences across systems even when case counts are moderate, because illness, isolation, and precautionary measures disrupt people, places, and services simultaneously. Direct health impacts (morbidity, mortality) are compounded by workforce absenteeism, supply-chain delays, and surges on healthcare and public health operations. The breadth of consequences depends on the pathogen’s transmissibility and severity, the speed of detection, and the availability of countermeasures (testing, treatment, vaccination) and risk communication.

Built Environment

EIDs strain the built environment indirectly by stressing the facilities and systems people operate. Hospitals, clinics, EMS stations, and pharmacies can exceed functional capacity, requiring surge spaces and changes to ventilation and patient flow. Public buildings, schools, and workplaces may need operational adjustments (enhanced cleaning, spacing, HVAC improvements), and staffing gaps can delay maintenance for roads, utilities, and public facilities. Supply-chain disruptions can slow construction projects and limit availability of critical parts for water/wastewater, transportation, and communications systems.

Natural Environment

While EIDs primarily affect human systems, response activities can influence the environment. Increased use of medical disposables and disinfectants elevates medical and solid-waste volumes, requiring proper handling to avoid secondary environmental impacts. Wastewater surveillance—often deployed for EIDs—integrates environmental sampling into public health practice and necessitates careful lab and sampling protocols. Changes in human activity (e.g., reduced travel) may temporarily alter local air quality and traffic-related emissions.

Social Environment

EIDs most strongly affect the social environment. Illness, isolation, and caregiving responsibilities reduce workforce availability, interrupt schooling and childcare, and strain household finances—especially for hourly and small-business workers. Behavioral-health needs rise due to stress, grief, and prolonged uncertainty, while misinformation can erode trust and complicate protective actions. Impacts are disproportionate for older adults, people with chronic conditions, low-income and uninsured residents, and those in congregate or high-exposure settings (schools, long-term care, logistics and retail).

Climate Impacts on EID

Climate does not directly “cause” EIDs, but it can shape risk conditions. Hotter summers and poor air-quality days can drive indoor crowding, increasing transmission opportunities for respiratory pathogens. Shifts in precipitation and temperature can extend vector seasons (ticks, mosquitoes) and alter wildlife–human interfaces that enable zoonotic spillover. Climate stress on infrastructure and households (e.g., heat waves, severe storms) can also complicate access to care and continuity of operations, amplifying the consequences of an outbreak when it coincides with other hazards.

Edmonson County’s vulnerability to EIDs is moderate, shaped by its rural population distribution, limited local healthcare infrastructure, and reliance on regional hospitals and providers. Populations at increased risk include older adults, residents with chronic conditions, uninsured or underinsured populations, and households with limited transportation to clinics or pharmacies. Outbreaks can strain essential services, particularly in schools, long-term care centers, and EMS. Rural residents may experience delays in diagnosis or treatment, and limited broadband access can hinder telehealth use. Tourism activity associated with Mammoth Cave also creates periodic increases in exposure potential.

Edmonson County’s vulnerability is influenced by its tourism assets (e.g. Mammoth Cave National Park). Seasonal influxes of visitors may introduce pathogens or increase transient mixing, raising exposure risk. However, local health infrastructure is limited, and access to advanced care is likely located in adjacent counties. Surveillance, partnerships with park authorities, and cross-county coordination are key in managing outbreak introduction.

The Kentucky Geological Survey (KGS) identifies two ways in which sinkholes collapse:

1. The roof of a cave becomes too thin to support the weight of the material above it and collapses.
2. Limestone bedrock develops a fracture that is enlarged by water dissolving the limestone. As the limestone erodes, the soil above it slowly falls into the developing sinkhole. This type of cover-collapse is typically very slow and occurs over a long period of time. Only in rare instances will limestone bedrock dissolution cause a rapid collapse.

Karst-related hazards happen quickly and without warning. However, scientists have mapped a large portion of the BRADD region to determine where these hazards are most likely to occur. A snapshot of this mapping is located above. to view a fully interactive map and explore sinkholes by jurisdiction, click on the link below.

The likelihood of new sinkhole formation or reactivation of existing depressions is moderate under current conditions and increasing with expanding development, aging stormwater systems, and heavier rainfall patterns. While most collapses are small and isolated, their unpredictability and potential to undermine roads or utilities justify continued monitoring and maintenance of known karst features.

Damages to human-made structures caused by sinkholes can range from minor to severe. Office buildings, homes, roads, utility lines, and other critical facility or structure located above a sinkhole could be affected. If the sinkhole is large enough, it can affect an entire building or home when it collapses. Minor sinkholes will cause brief damage and are usually fixed with simple excavation techniques.

Drainage water runs into sinkholes during heavy rains and will affect any structures built within the flood plain of a given sinkhole. Present sinkhole vulnerability to flooding can alter the urbanization plans and other forms of expansion and commercialization.

Transportation systems are greatly affected by sinkholes since much of the BRADD’s roadways and highways are constructed over sinkholes. When these sinkholes collapse they not only destroy the road itself but the ground beneath it. Intricate and expensive excavating techniques must be utilized to repair a roadway and its ground foundation affected by a sinkhole.

Because of the vast amount of sinkholes in the BRADD region, there is an extensive groundwater network that supplies public water systems serving many residents. Groundwater essentially originates from rain or other forms of precipitation that soak into the ground and move forward to fill cracks and other openings in soils and rocks. This permeable layer is known as an aquifer. Groundwater is also an abundance natural resource making up 9% of all the freshwater in the world. This water is a direct main source for usable, fresh water for over a million residents in Kentucky, including the Barren River region. For surface streams, groundwater provides as a base flow when it is not raining. Groundwater, especially in a karst environment, is highly susceptible to contamination. Impure rain water, septic tank effluent, agricultural pesticides, and animal waste all contribute to the contamination of groundwater through seepage and runoff. However, contamination problems are aggravated in karst areas by the practice of the disposal of solid and liquid wastes into sinkholes where they may be washed directly into the aquifer.

The natural environment is very vulnerable to the effects of sinkholes. Carbonic rock such as limestone is eroded away by acidic rain and water runoff. This carves out subterranean passages throughout the underside of the landscape. When the ground level clay or cohesive rock materials cannot support the weight, they cave in and fall into these passages. The result is a karst landscape. Sinkhole collapse greatly damages and alters the natural environment. Groundwater contamination can kill cave aquatic life.

People – Anyone living or working near sinkholes or within the drainage basin of a sinkhole is vulnerable. Karst can lead to radon-related health concerns, sinkhole collapse can lead to loss of life and property, groundwater contamination may lead to build-up of dangerous gases in homes and businesses, and flooding may cause drowning.

Economy – Cost of making repairs to property, repairing roads, preparing special foundations for large buildings, an extending public water lines to replace polluted groundwater.

There is an expected impact on sinkholes due to climate change. Increasing temperatures will likely affect hydrologic processes, enhance dissolution of limestone, and promote soil failure. It was found in one study that with every increase of 0.2ºF in global temperature, there is a 1-3% increase in the number of sinkholes, thus, there is a high possibility that an increase in sinkholes is due to climate change. With an increase in intense rain events, there could also be an increase in sinkholes opening due to runoff and undermining of soil.

Potential impacts include:

• Damage to roads and property
• Displacement of residents
• Transportation issues (traffic, blocked routes)
• Economic loss due to changes in development patterns or sinkholes/flooding

Working with AT&T’s Climate Resilient Communities Program and the Climate Risk and Resilience (ClimRR) Portal, BRADD identified additional opportunities for hazard mitigation action items associated with climate impacts for Karst Landscapes in the Barren River Region. To view an interactive report of these findings, click here.

Edmonson County’s vulnerability to karst hazards is high, due to its globally significant karst landscape, extensive cave systems, and widespread sinkhole distribution. Older homes, manufactured housing, and structures built without geotechnical assessment face heightened exposure to subsidence and groundwater-related damage. Rural transportation routes crossing sinkhole plains are also vulnerable to collapse or chronic maintenance needs. Residents relying on private wells may face water-quality concerns if contaminants enter underground drainage pathways. Tourism-related facilities and visitors near cave and sinkhole features add another layer of vulnerability that requires continuous monitoring and risk communication.

Based on KGS’s data there are 1,851 Topo and LiDAR-identified sinkholes within Edmonson County. In the unincorporated areas of the county (only county land), there are 1849 topo and LiDAR-identified sinkholes.

The majority of Edmonson County has low karst potential. However, the southern and eastern portions of the county have a very high potential for karst/sinkholes.

Due to these factors, Edmonson County experiences moderate to high vulnerability to sinkholes. The risk for Edmonson County’s city is analyzed below.

Brownsville has 13 identified sinkholes. Its vulnerability is low.

Landslide Susceptibility

During Kentucky’s 2018 Hazard Mitigation Plan update, Kentucky Geological Survey (KGS) developed a landslide susceptibility map for the state in order to show which areas have greater landslide risk due to slope and geology. Using the KGS data, BRADD staff created a landslide susceptibility dashboard for our 10-counties. Click on the button below to access the BRADD Landslide Dashboard.

Landslide probability in Edmonson County is low to moderate, but persistent. With 5 events over 30 years, the county experiences a 17% annual chance of at least one landslide, with higher likelihood during wet years. Landslide occurrence is typically episodic—long periods without activity followed by clusters of events during or after major storms. Climate projections showing increased heavy rainfall intensity and more frequent soil-saturation cycles may slightly elevate the probability of future landslides.

During Kentucky’s 2018 Hazard Mitigation Plan update, Kentucky Geological Survey (KGS) developed a landslide susceptibility map for the state in order to show which areas have greater landslide risk due to slope and geology. Using the KGS data, BRADD staff created a landslide susceptibility dashboard for our 10-counties. Click on the button below to access the BRADD Landslide Dashboard.

Human-made structures are directly affected by landslides. Any structures such as buildings, roads, bridges, street lighting, and power lines can be completely destroyed if in the direct life of the landslide.

Any roads or other transportation systems that are in the path of a landslide will be directly affected. Roads can either be covered by the debris or wiped completely away. Power lines and telecommunication networks would also be directly affected. Along with roads, telephone poles and towers can be damaged and ruined during the event of a landslide.

A landslide, itself, involves natural materials. The drastic displacement of earth, trees, and debris can cause persistent problems such as continued erosion. Landslides can carry contaminated materials into streams and other water bodies, directly affect wildlife by destroying wildlife habitats such as wooded areas, streams, and ponds. This can affect the ecosystem and all living things within it.

People

The vulnerability of a landslide do not affect one section of the population more than another. Anyone living in an area at high risk of a landslide will be affected. Landslides can occur spontaneously and randomly.

Economy

Economic costs associated with landslides are due to replacement costs for any property damaged. If transportation and telecommunication networks are damaged or destroyed, it may lead to business closures for a brief time.

There is limited evidence connecting climate change to an increase in landslides; however, it is theorized that more intense rainfall, rain-on-snow events, mean warming, permafrost thaw, glacier retreat, and coastal erosion can lead to rockface instability and decreased slope (IPCC 2022). There has been an increase in landslides in certain areas of the world and it is expected that there will be an increase in frequency in northwestern North America. Studies make these projections based on increasing rainfall intensity and frequency, so it is possible that the BRADD region may see minor impacts from these in the form of slumps and low-grade slope failure. Kentucky’s landslides mostly occur in Eastern Kentucky, so the BRADD region should not be significantly impacted.

• Potential impacts include:
• Infrastructure damage
• Ecosystem damage
• Loss of life
• Economic loss

Edmonson County’s vulnerability to landslides is moderate, shaped by its steep stream valleys, clay-rich soils, and roadway cuts. Rural residents living along hillsides or in narrow hollows face the greatest exposure. Transportation infrastructure—especially locally maintained rural roads—is particularly vulnerable to slope failures and shoulder erosion. Limited funding for large-scale slope stabilization and a dispersed population increase response challenges. Residents on private property may lack resources for mitigation or stabilization, increasing long-term risk.

Since 1991, KGS has recorded 5 landslides in Edmonson County. This averages to .17 landslide events per year.

Because of these factors, Edmonson County experiences low vulnerability to landslide events. The risk for Edmonson County’s city is analyzed below.

The City of Brownsville has had no historic occurrences of landslide events. Its vulnerability is low.

In addition to the current COVID-19 Pandemic, the Kentucky Cabinet for Health and Family Service explains that there have been four other pandemics in United States in the last 100 years: the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu, the 1956-1958 Asian Flu, the 1968-1969 Hong Kong Flu, and the 2009 Novel H1N1. Combined, these four pandemics have claimed thousands of lives in the Commonwealth, hundreds of thousands in the United States, and millions worldwide.

Spanish Influenza 1918-1919: Historical examples of pandemic demonstrate that while a pandemic may be devastating to a community from a life safety and economic standpoint, the threat was often downplayed and ignored. The 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic was initially disregarded as having a significant impact because influenza was thought of as a minor illness that incapacitated the sick for a relatively short period of time before they eventually recovered. However, as the Spanish Influenza rose to pandemic level, it redefined the public’s perception of the virus. A historian at the time noted that at a military encampment in southern Ohio, soldiers would arrive healthy and within twenty-four hours would be dead from the flu. The virus spread globally along trade routes and shipping lines. Residents of North American, Europe, Africa, Asia, Brazil, and the South Pacific were particularly affected by the illness, which in-total infected 1/5 of the global population. In contrast to the majority of flu strains, the Spanish Influenza primarily affected young, healthy adults between the ages of 20 and 40. The mortality rate was 2.5%, an astounding figure given that flu outbreaks typically have a rate of 0.1%. By the end of the pandemic, the virus had claimed 20 million lives worldwide and 675,000 in the United States.

Asian Flu 1956-1958: The New York Times first broke the news of the Asian Flu in 1957 when they published a story of a flu virus that had infected 250,000 in Hong Kong. Months after this story was published, the disease had spread to the United States. Unlike Spanish Influenza, the Asian Flu was most commonly reported in the vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and individuals with heart and lung conditions. People with rheumatic heart disease and women in their third trimester of pregnancy were uniquely impacted. Infection for this pandemic came in two parts—the first in the late summer of 1957 and the second in the winter of 1958. The death toll for the Asian Flu widely varies, with sources reporting between 1 and 4 million deaths worldwide and approximately 69,800 in the United States.

Hong Kong Flu 1968-1969: The Hong Kong Flu is the mildest of all pandemics of the 20th century, a fact that is often explained by its similarity to the Asian Flu which increased immunity to the 1968 strain and the fact that it hit the United States in late December when most students were on break, reducing opportunities for spread. As with the Asian Flu, the vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly, were most at risk. By the end of the pandemic in 1969, it had claimed 33,800 lives in the US.

H1N1 2009-2010: This pandemic first appeared in the United States in the spring of 2009. By June, H1N1 had infected 18,000 people in the US. The virus primarily affected the populations most typically affected by the flu: children and infants, pregnant women, the elderly, and individuals with prior-existing health conditions. Due to advancements in medical research and technology, the overall impact of the pandemic was curbed. A vaccine was introduced in the fall of 2009. Approximately 80 million people were vaccinated worldwide. By the time the pandemic was declared over in the spring of 2010, between 43-89 million people had been infected and between 8,870 and 18,300 people had died.

COVID-19 2020-2023: The most recent pandemic first appeared in the United States in the spring of 2020. By July 2020, COVID-19 had infected over 200,000 people worldwide. The virus initially primarily affected the elderly, and individuals with prior-existing health conditions, however as spread increased so did the populations at-risk. A vaccine was approved for use against the virus in December of 2020, and in May of 2023 the World Health Organization declared an end to the public health emergency of international concern.

Pandemics have a low-probability but high-consequence profile. Globally, pandemic-level events occur several times per century, though moderate-scale regional epidemics—such as severe influenza seasons—are more frequent. For Edmonson County, the likelihood of a pandemic impacting the community over a 10-year planning horizon is classified as moderate, driven by:

• High levels of regional and interstate travel
• Workforce movement into and out of Warren County’s commercial centers
• Increasing global connectivity
• Seasonal respiratory disease patterns
• Periodic emergence of novel viral strains

Although pandemics remain rare compared to other hazards, their prolonged and system-wide impacts justify sustained planning and mitigation.

Infrastructure could be impacted due to lack of repair and upkeep if pandemic is extensive and lengthy; Utility lines and repairs would take longer to repair due to manpower lost.

Potential increased loss of agricultural assets (crop & livestock) due to loss of manpower to harvest crop; fewer livestock and crop markets due to restriction of crowds which prevent spread of pandemic disease;

People

Farmers-pandemic could affect crop production & yield since they could not seed or harvest; General populace -would be impacted due to both physical and psychological impacts of disease; Possible school closures would aid in disrupting spread of disease; Vulnerable populations may experience more impacts due to synergistic effects of pandemic symptomology. Additionally, the county could expirence increased emergency clinical care visits, more hospitalization (upwards 1-4% symptomatic patients will require hospitalization) leading to severe and overwhelming impacts on healthcare and public health system; workforce absences leading to minimal patient care

Economy

Pandemic can cause business slowdown or even recession; decreased food and merchandise shipped throughout area would increase cost; loss of buyers and sellers due to potential risk of contagion. Increased staff absences (upwards 50% workforce may require time off over entire period of pandemic).

The 2016 Global Risk Report published by the World Economic Forum has proposed that climate change could be a causal factor in future pandemics. This finding is further explored in a 2016 report produced by Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, Pandemics in a Changing Climate – Evolving Risk & Global Response. The report explains that vector ecology indicates the potential for climate change to create the conditions for future pandemics. Changes in temperature, precipitation, and pH levels due to climate change will impact the quantity and quality of ecological services, such as food, water, and soil. Ecosystem shifts can impact the migratory patterns, habitats, population, and survivability of certain animal and insect populations. Such changes may increase human-animal or human-insect contact, increasing the likelihood of transmission. For example, as hot summer months extend tick and mosquito populations, both culprits in transmission of epidemic-causing viruses, can survive longer and have more opportunities to infect humans. Climate change may have more direct impacts on humans by making certain populations, particularly in developing countries, more susceptible to illness by creating food and water security crises.

Edmonson County’s vulnerability to pandemics is moderate to high, shaped by its rural population distribution, limited local healthcare infrastructure, and dependence on regional hospitals in Bowling Green. Vulnerable populations include older adults, individuals with chronic health conditions, long-term care residents, low-income households, and families without broadband or transportation access. Schools, long-term care facilities, EMS, and small businesses can experience significant operational strain during extended pandemic waves. Rural isolation can increase delays in diagnosis or treatment, and reliance on regional economic hubs increases exposure through daily workforce movement.

Edmonson County is vulnerable because of tourism traffic (Mammoth Cave National Park) and influxes of visitors, which heighten exposure potential. The local health infrastructure is limited and may not sustain large surges. Coordination with park services and cross-county backup is critical during pandemic waves.

Location: Severe storms are treated as a region-wide, non-spatial hazard; no jurisdiction is inherently more likely to be struck, though more built-up places see greater damages. For Allen, that means exposure countywide, with higher potential property impacts in and around Scottsville.

Extent: The profile evaluates hail, wind, and lightning (tornadoes are handled separately). Severe thunderstorms are defined by hail ≥ ¾”, wind gusts ≥ 50 knots (57.5 mph), or a tornado. Straight-line winds in extreme cases can exceed 100 mph.

Past events / occurrence: Allen County has recorded 105 severe storm events over 21 years (≈ 5 events annually).

The BRADD region’s probability of severe storms is rated High  based on annual frequency; this regional rating applies to Edmonson County as well.

• Edmonson County: 84 severe storm events/21 years = 4 wind events annually

Vehicles, roofs, windows, utilities, roads, and culverts are vulnerable; straight-line winds  can down trees/power lines, causing outages from hours to weeks.

Increased stormwater runoff, localized flooding, tree loss, and impacts to fish/wildlife;  crop and livestock damage are common consequences.

Outdoor workers and people without timely warnings (boaters, campers, farmers, construction crews) are especially susceptible; damages can trigger brief  business closures where transport/telecom are affected.

Research indicates climate change is increasing the number of days with sufficient CAPE and vertical wind shear to produce severe storms (hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes), implying more frequent environments favorable to severe weather in the region.

Edmonson County’s vulnerability to severe storms is moderate to high, driven by its rural housing stock, high proportion of manufactured homes, and extensive tree canopy near homes and roadways. Older structures without wind-resistant construction are more susceptible to roof and structural damage. Utility systems—especially overhead power lines in wooded areas—are vulnerable to outages during high-wind events. Rural isolation increases impacts when roads are blocked or power remains out for extended periods. Agricultural operations face recurring loss potential from hail, wind, and lightning.

Edmonson County has experienced 84 severe storm events/21 years = 4 wind events annually.

Because of these factors, Edmonson County experiences high vulnerability to severe storms. Brownsville reflects Edmonson County’s overall history of winter storms, and therefore experiences high vulnerability as well.

Because terrorism is intentional and adversarial, traditional frequency-based risk assessments are not sufficient for evaluating potential impacts. Unlike natural hazards, terrorism cannot be forecasted or modeled using historical trends alone. Effective assessment must incorporate intelligence inputs, threat actor capabilities, and scenario planning to understand possible modes of attack and associated vulnerabilities.

At present, there is limited differentiation between types of terrorism that may affect the region. Distinguishing between domestic and international threats, as well as between physical, cyber, or hybrid forms of terrorism, can help clarify risk pathways and improve mitigation strategies. The region’s profile would also benefit from identifying and assessing critical infrastructure and “soft targets” that may be more susceptible to intentional acts, such as public gathering venues, utilities, schools, and government facilities.

Because terrorism is intentional and adversarial, you cannot rely solely on historical frequency to derive probability. Many risk models for terrorism must incorporate intelligence assessments, threat actor capabilities, and scenario planning.

While the page references terrorism conceptually, it does not currently include coordination protocols with law enforcement, fusion centers, or homeland security partners that monitor and share threat intelligence. Strengthening interagency coordination—particularly with local emergency management, police, and state agencies—would provide a more credible understanding of regional exposure and response capability.

Cascading and secondary effects of terrorism events, such as public panic, misinformation, economic disruption, and strain on emergency and health systems, are also important considerations. The social and psychological impacts of terrorism can be significant even when physical damage is limited, underscoring the need to plan for behavioral health support and long-term community recovery.

Additionally, the region’s profile does not currently evaluate local preparedness measures such as continuity of operations plans (COOP), security assessments, or mass-casualty response capacity, which are key indicators of resilience. Future updates should also consider emerging risks, such as cyber-physical attacks on utilities and critical networks, and how these may intersect with traditional forms of terrorism.

Finally, it is important to acknowledge both the limitations and sensitivities of terrorism-related data. Some information—such as specific target locations or threat intelligence—cannot be publicly shared due to security concerns. Nonetheless, transparency in describing the general methods, assumptions, and partnerships used to assess terrorism risk would enhance credibility while maintaining confidentiality.

Terrorism can destroy or damage buildings and critical lifelines (power, water/wastewater, transportation, and communications), with impacts dictated by the attack method and proximity to critical nodes.

Acts such as agro-terrorism or hazardous-materials release can contaminate soil, water, or wildlife habitat, and BRADD explicitly notes potential destruction of natural resources under certain attack types.

Intentional acts are designed to cause casualties, widespread fear, and economic disruption; BRADD highlights life-safety risks, psychological effects, and local economic shocks due to reduced participation and interrupted operations.

Climate stressors (e.g., pressures on marginalized populations, aging infrastructure, and periods of civil unrest) may elevate susceptibility to terrorism-related activities, including threats to infrastructure, property, and cyber/economic systems, even though overall climate-driven terrorism risk for the region remains low. 

Edmonson County’s vulnerability to terrorism is moderate, driven by several factors:

• Limited law enforcement staffing and long response times in rural areas
• Reliance on regional SWAT, hazmat, and cyber-response teams
• Presence of schools, government buildings, and high-attendance community events
• Increasing dependence on digital systems for government operations
• Tourism flows that bring large numbers of visitors, increasing exposure
• Limited resources for security assessments, physical hardening, or cybersecurity upgrades

While the likelihood of a targeted attack remains low, the county’s ability to absorb and recover from a significant event is constrained by resource availability and rural service capacity.

Edmonson County faces a low overall risk of terrorism but contains sensitive assets such as Mammoth Cave National Park, which attracts significant visitor traffic and could represent a symbolic or opportunistic target. Seasonal tourism and the county’s extensive natural areas complicate emergency response logistics. Coordination with National Park Service law enforcement and local emergency services is vital to maintaining situational awareness and readiness.

Tornado intensity in Edmonson County typically ranges from EF0 to EF2, though stronger events remain possible. Straight-line winds and severe storms accompanying tornadic systems can produce impacts similar to lower-end tornadoes. Tornadoes can damage homes, manufactured housing, barns, large-span structures, utilities, trees, and vehicles.

From 2000–2025, Edmonson County experienced 8 tornadoes (≈ 32% chance of at least one tornado in a given year). Since 1950, tornadoes that touched down in the county have caused 2 injuries. Regional context includes the December 10–11, 2021 outbreak, with multiple long-track and high-end events affecting neighboring counties.

Tornado exposure is countywide and non-spatial at planning scale; consequences concentrate where people and assets are located (e.g., Brownsville, major corridors, and higher-occupancy or vulnerable housing areas such as mobile homes).

The National Weather Service in Louisville surveyed a tornadic supercell over the course of 6 days in Warren County which directly struck Bowling Green. The tornado first touched down in rural southwestern Warren County just south of the intersection of Wimpee Smith Road and Petros Browning Rd. This consisted of twisted, snapped, topped and uprooted softwood and hardwood trees. The tornado was about 200 yards wide, with EF1 winds of 90 mph. Aerial photography confirmed the tornado was continuous in this rugged area of southwest Warren County.

The tornado increased to EF2, between 120 and 125 mph, doing major damage to several older barns along Tommy Smith Road. It threw a 1700 pound cattle trailer, 300 yards into a creek ravine.The NWS drone showed a distinct narrow main funnel within the larger funnel. This 30 to 35 yard funnel was clearly seen scouring the corn field and produced the most concentrated damage. The narrow funnel crossed Browning Rd and hit a well constructed house. The only major part of the house that survived was an interior bathroom and hallway. Winds were estimated at 135 mph, and areas outside the narrow funnel had damage of 100 mph, and the entire overall width was 250 yards wide.

The survey team found extensive tree damage along Van Meter Rd and Fuqua Rd and aerial photography confirmed the tornado was continuous in this rugged, mainly forested area. The tornado did minor roof damage to some homes along Blue Level Road of 86 to 90 mph but did more substantial roof and side damage to several barns, of 90 to 95 mph. Based on drone technology, there appeared to be two distinct areas of damage, and likely had a smaller satellite tornado. There was extensive roof damage to the Zomi Agape fellowship center with insulation thrown both downwind and on the upwind side of the building. The tornado increased in speed when it was over Old Tramm Rd by Rembrandt Court and Powell Road. One house on Rembrandt Court was knocked out its foundation by the garage attachment and slid about 15 feet. Other homes were knocked down to just interior bathroom and hallway remaining, but there were some foundation construction concerns. EF2 winds of 130 to 135 mph were evidenced in this area.

Several houses were knocked down to the foundation, but there was some foundation construction concerns. In addition, farm equipment from a barn on the right side of Powell St was thrown directly into homes on the left side of Powell Rd. The survey team found significant house damage to dozens of homes in the Creekwood subdivision. This included exterior walls collapsed, roofs blown off, foundations severely compromised, garages blown in, insulation blown on all four sides of houses, and garages severely damaged or destroyed. In fact, they were dozens of double garages damaged, where one garage door blew in and the other garage door blew out. There were hundreds of powerlines and snapped power poles down throughout the county. Trees were uprooted snapped and twisted facing in all directions. Dozens of cars were flipped, twisted, turned, and thrown into homes. There was clear evidence of 2 x 4 thrown into the ground, like missiles. Several splintered boards were impaled into vehicle windshields, tires, and along the hood grills. Most of the damage was rated EF2 from 115 to 135 mph except for 8 homes near Mossy Creek.

The survey team brought in engineers from WKU to look at 8 homes, which were wiped down to the foundation from Moss Creek to Mossy Stone. Engineers helped in determining winds speeds were 160 mph for these houses, a high EF3 rating. Tragically, several fatalities occurred in the subdivision area.

The tornado was 250 yards wide in Creekwood, but increased to about 350 yards wide before crossing Veterans Parkway. The tornado crossed the William Natcher Parkway and hit large townhouses along Veterans Parkway. There was numerous windows shattered and some roof damage. One of the town houses was shifted off the foundation, but there were no bricks or other support on it. The tornado crossed Russellville Rd hitting many business. At Royal Motor Cars, several storage buildings were destroyed, major loss of roof panels at Cabreras Mexican restaurant and an auto parts store. At Plumbers Supply company at 2321 Russellville Rd. The garage was blown in and collapsed. The main building had a shifted foundation, and a partial collapse of some exterior cinderblock walls, tractors and trailers were twisted and flipped, and there were numerous power poles snapped. The Shell gas station had major damage to service station canopy and store, as well as walls of an Enterprise car rental.

The tornado increased to quarter mile wide and went from EF2 of 130 mph, from Royal Motorcars to AutoZone, and then decreased to EF2, 115-120 mph and narrowed to 1/8th of a mile with major tree and roof damage along Lealand Street, Cedar Ridge, and University Drive. A fully loaded dumpster was thrown 250 yards. At Russell Road and Springhill Avenue, a Marathon gas station had its pumps destroyed, and most of the exterior walls was destroyed. The tornado missed Western Kentucky University by 225 yards, but debris was thrown all over the campus including some impaled debris into buildings.

The tornado went along 31W including doing significant damage to roof at Bobas lounge, a liquor store, and a smoke shop. This was estimated to be 110 to 120 mph, and tornado width decreased to 250 yards by Walgreens and Taco Bell. The tornado, appeared to be slightly elevated, doing mainly tree damage, power poles, and house roofing and siding along Magnolia Ave and Nutwood St. It crossed Lehman, went along Covington, with wind speeds mainly of 95 to 110 mph. The owner 708 Nutwood said, the warning saved thier lives, as the house was violently shaking, but they sought shelter and lived.

Much of the tree damage was facing from the northeast to the northwest. The tornado paralleled Cemetery Rd doing roof and gutter damage along with power lines and tree damage. The tornado’s speed and winds increased along Cherokee Dr. with roofs removed and large healthy hardwood trees uprooted. The width increased to 300 yards and speeds to 105 mph with width of 225 yards. The narrow 175 yard funnel, hit the Indian Hills golf course, twisting, snapping, and topping numerous pines and cedars with winds speeds of 86 to 90 mph.

The tornado then crossed the Barren River and increased in speed along Old Porter Pike to EF2, between 111 and 120 mph. Huge diameter hardwood trees were snapped and uprooted, including several very tall oak trees. There was also extensive roof damage to some well built homes. It weakened as it approached exit 28, doing EF1 damage of 90-95 mph to Hucks gas station and damaged a very tall Wendys sign. On the north side of 31 W, a fully loaded 18 wheeler facing west, was knocked over and was dragged 15 yards to a northwesterly directly. Winds were increased to EF2, of 115 mph.

At the Corvette plant there was significant roof damage, with metal sheeting, insulation, HVAC units, and other debris thrown hundreds of yards downwind. Light poles in the parking lot were snapped, One of the security checkpoints at the Corvette plant was totally destroyed with large sections of the building being thrown several hundred yards, and weighing over 100 pounds, striking several vehicles. Winds were mainly in the 110 to 120 mph range.

The tornado continued to parallel I 65, just west of the interstate. It struck several homes at Bristow Rd and Friendship Rd. Most of the damage was done to roofs siding and gutters and destroyed a well- built greenhouse. Numerous power poles and lines were down and the debris pattern was facing from southeasterly, all the way to northwesterly. There was some barn and tree damage near Kelly Road and the CSX railroad crossing. Winds were 85 to 90 mph and width of 200 yards.

The tornado really increased across the TransPark at Exit 30. A few metal building structures at the peak intensity of the tornado sustained heavy damage. The middle building totally collapsed. Analysis showed that building was well constructed, but the shearing force from the intense tornado ripped the metal frame from the anchoring plates of the building. Analysis of the third building showed the tornado had weakened some at this point, down to EF2 levels. The WSR-8D showed a Tornadic Debris Signature downstream of this area, which was was lofted to around 18 kft, right at the high end of EF3 of 165 mph. The tornado weakened further downstream as it caused roofing and siding damage to several structures and tree damage into southeast Edmonson County. Civil Air Patrol imagery helped identify the end point of this tornado.

Tornadoes in Edmonson County are a moderate-probability hazard, occurring less frequently than severe storms but more regularly than large-scale disasters. Based on regional NOAA/NWS records:

• Tornadoes or tornadic wind events occur every 2–5 years,
• The county should expect multiple tornado warnings per year,
• Nighttime tornado threats are frequent enough to require enhanced alerting and preparedness,
• Climate trends suggest a potential increase in the frequency of severe convective storms capable of producing tornadoes.

Although catastrophic tornadoes are rare, the county’s housing stock and rural population distribution elevate vulnerability to moderate-intensity events.

Tornadoes can damage or destroy homes and businesses, topple transmission and distribution lines, block roads and bridges with debris, and interrupt power, communications, and water/wastewater services.

Tornadoes can fell trees, damage crops and farm structures, degrade habitats, and increase fire risk where dead or downed timber is not removed.

Tornadoes can cause deaths and injuries, trigger temporary but significant economic disruption, and reduce local revenue and productivity during recovery.

While attribution is complex at tornado scale, research indicates fewer “one-tornado” days and more multi-tornado cluster days, linked to increases in days with high CAPE and sufficient vertical wind shear; this implies more days conducive to severe storms—a planning consideration for warning, sheltering, and surge response.

Edmonson County’s vulnerability to tornadoes is moderate to high, shaped by the county’s rural housing stock, prevalence of manufactured homes, and limited access to hardened shelters. Older homes and farm structures may lack wind-resistant design, increasing susceptibility to damage. The distribution of overhead utilities across wooded areas increases the likelihood of prolonged outages. Schools, public buildings, and community facilities that lack FEMA P-361–compliant safe rooms face elevated risk during high-wind events. Rural residents with limited access to indoor warning systems—such as households lacking NOAA Weather Radios or reliable cellular coverage—are also highly vulnerable.

Between 2000 and 2021, Edmonson County has experienced 6 tornadoes/21years =29% chance of a tornado happening in a given year.

Since 1950, tornadoes that touched down in Edmonson County have caused 2 injuries and 0 deaths.

Edmonson County contains four census tracts wherein at least 25% of all housing units are mobile homes.

Because of these factors, Edmonson County experiences moderate vulnerability to tornadoes. Brownsville reflects Edmonson County’s overall history of tornado events, and therefore experiences moderate vulnerability as well.

Extent is characterized by the number and severity of winter storm, heavy snow, and ice storm events (including federally declared disasters). The BRADD region recorded multiple FEMA winter-storm disaster declarations between 2000 and 2020 and 66 reportable winter storm events in that period.

From 2000–2020, Edmonson County experienced 8 severe winter storms.

Exposure is countywide (non-spatial at the planning scale), with impacts most evident where people, infrastructure, and travel corridors concentrate (e.g., Brownsville and major roads)

Winter storms are an annual occurrence in Edmonson County, with varying severity. Snow events occur several times each winter, while impactful ice storms occur every 3–7 years, on average. Cold waves with dangerous wind chills occur periodically and may last several days. Climate projections suggest that while average winter temperatures may rise, Kentucky is likely to continue experiencing occasional severe cold outbreaks and high-impact ice events due to increased weather variability. As a result, winter storms remain a high-probability hazard for planning purposes.

Winter storms can damage roofs under snow load, break limbs that fall onto buildings and vehicles, down power lines, and block roads and bridges with snow/ice and debris; even modest icing can disrupt utilities and emergency response.

Extended snow/ice cover can alter habitats and timing of species behavior; out-of-season events can injure or kill vegetation and damage crops and trees.

Hazardous travel, power outages, and isolation elevate risks for households—especially older adults or people with medical needs—while business closures and school disruptions impose community-wide costs.

Changing winter characteristics: warmer winters overall, fewer heavy snowmelt events, more precipitation falling as rain/ice in the Southeast, a lengthening freeze-free season, and related economic and infrastructure stresses—factors that may shift Allen County’s winter risk mix toward icing events and infrastructure sensitivity even as extreme cold snaps still occur.

The table below displays ice storm, winter storms, and heavy snow events that were reported to NOAA and NWS between 2000 and 2020. While not each of these events received a FEMA declaration, each showed clear characteristics of a severe winter storm.

Between 2000 and 2020, NOAA and NWS reported 15 severe winter storms in Edmonson County.

On average, Edmonson County has experienced 8 winter storm events/25 years. This equates to a 32% chance of a winter storm event in Edmonson County annually.

In 2018, a number of trees fell as a result of ice accumulation.

Because of these factors, Edmonson County experiences moderate vulnerability to winter storm events. Brownsville reflects Edmonson County’s overall history of winter storms, and therefore experiences moderate vulnerability as well.